Pogaduchy przy porannej kawie

[259]

A tutaj taki uproszczony spodziewany schemat funkcjonowania rynków w najbliższych miesiącach:

Dobre dane (z USA, cokolwiek zgodne lub lepsze od oczekiwań) będą widziane pozytywnie dla "zwijania QE" (taper ON) i reakcja będzie przynajmniej tak długo jak nie będzie to wciąż pewne (czyli potwierdzone przez FED): USD UP, GOLD DOWN, anty-dolary DOWN, jen DOWN (USDJPY UP), akcje mieszane reakcje, nieco w dół (sądzę że dopiero jak będzie pewne że zwijanie jest już blisko akcje będą DOWN ale nie będzie to wielka wyprzedaż).

EDIT: Przy okazji może wyjaśnię szczególną pozycję pary USDJPY:
generalnie mamy trzy bezpieczne przystanie (safe havens):
JPY
CHF
USD.
Z tych trzech CHF jest na razie na odstawce. Poza tym jest najmniejszy.
Pozostają USD i JPY.
Gdy rynek się czegoś obawia, ucieka od ryzyka (risk OFF) do dolara i jena. Generalnie wszystkie anty-dolary i anty-jeny idą w dół.
Ale co z USDJPY? On też idzie w dół. Bo jen jest widziany jako bezpieczniejszy niż dolar. I tańszy.
Natomiast gdy mamy dobre nastroje pieniądze wyruszają z obu walut w poszukiwaniu zysku (przy zwiększonym ryzyku, stąd risk ON), a na USDJPY mamy UP bo… zazwyczaj oznacza to kupowanie papierów amerykańskich lub kupowanych za dolary w pierwszym rzędzie. A żeby je kupić, trzeba najpierw kupić dolara.
I z tego też powodu ta jedna, jedyna para jest najlepszym papierkiem lakmusowym światowego risk on/off.

[259]

Mamy małe fajerwerki:

Kod: Zaznacz cały

Gaps 26 May 2013 19:01 GMT
Pair	Now	Friday Close	Gap
AUDJPY	98.23	97.74	49
AUDUSD	0.9660	0.9651	8
EURAUD	1.3382	1.3393	-11
EURCHF	1.2439	1.2428	11
EURGBP	0.8548	0.8548	0
EURJPY	131.53	130.97	56
EURUSD	1.2932	1.2931	1
GBPJPY	153.83	153.18	65
GBPUSD	1.5124	1.5124	0
NZDUSD	0.8091	0.8091	0
USDCAD	1.0316	1.0316	0
USDCHF	0.9619	0.9611	8
USDJPY	101.71	101.28	43

EDIT: i po fajerwerkach:

Kod: Zaznacz cały

Gaps 26 May 2013 19:20 GMT
Pair	Now	Friday Close	Gap
AUDJPY	97.61	97.74	-12
AUDUSD	0.9633	0.9651	-19
EURAUD	1.3423	1.3393	31
EURCHF	1.2443	1.2428	15
EURGBP	0.8541	0.8548	-7
EURJPY	131.11	130.97	14
EURUSD	1.2936	1.2931	5
GBPJPY	153.46	153.18	28
GBPUSD	1.5142	1.5124	18
NZDUSD	0.8096	0.8091	5
USDCAD	1.0301	1.0316	-15
USDCHF	0.9619	0.9611	8
USDJPY	101.35	101.28	7

Dlatego nie ma co tego brać pod uwagę. Tak samo pierwsze dwie godziny Nikkei niewiele jeszcze mówią. Bo samuraje mają zaledwie dwie godziny na zrobienie szybkiego zysku przed lunchem. A po długim lunchu świat wygląda już nieco inaczej...

[259]

A tutaj ciekawa podpowiedź z Citi jak się ustawić w najbliższym czasie:
http://www.efxnews.com/story/18956/fx-c ... ition-citi
Oczywiście najpierw trzeba wziąć pod uwagę kto to mówi i dlaczego ;-)
Ale ja bym się z tym ogólnie zgodził.

[Stforex]

Dobry wieczór!
Dzięki za smaczne kawałki...
Zaraz biorę się do analiz, to może też coś podrzucę

EDIT: nic ciekawego . wszędzie piszą o Japonii i umacnianiu się dolara. Mnie to wygląda, jakby kasa szukała bezpiecznej przystani czekając co dalej. Padł temat jena... dlaczego jest tak kupowany... to dlatego, że inwestycje kapitałowe są mocno lewarowane jenem. Weź pożyczkę w jenach na 0,1% i zapakuj w AUD na 3% . Powtórz milion razy . Zgarniając profit spłaca się pożyczkę w Jenach nabywając walutę z powrotem. Dlatego jen tracił na rajdach, a teraz może nieco odzyskać blasku.

[259]

To o SL:
http://www.fxbriefs.com/major-currencie ... rly-trade/

Co do dużej kasy to moim skromnym zdaniem szykuje się przede wszystkim na wakacje...

[Stforex]

Dziś w nocy BoJ minutes

We wtorek Szwajcarski bilans handlowy i kilka wskaźników z US.

Środa - dane z Niemiec, w tym o bezrobociu i CPI
oraz Bank of Canada rate decision... a także dwa przemówienia FED-szych

W czwartek dane z Eurozłomy na rano przewidziane. Nic wielkiego.
Za to po południu GDP US, konsumpcja, initial jobless oraz dane z rynku mieszkaniowego... czyli dość twardy orzech do zgryzienia.
A na deser CPI Japonii, które ostatnio stało się gwiazdą ... i produkcja przemysłowa... czy ktokolwiek jeszcze na to patrzy?

No a w piątek,
Sprzedaż detaliczna w Niemczech
trochę wskaźników z UK
CPI z Euroziomy
CAD GDP - nie wiem po co to komu. mają ropę i tyle
No i pokaźny spis danych z US. Pojedynczo nic strasznego, ale w kupie może zrobić impact.

Owocnego tygodnia życzę!

Powodzenia!

[259]

Niesamowite, wreszcie jakiś pozytywny kawałek o Australii:
http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2013/05/2 ... l-exports/
Nie to żeby mógł on jakoś wpłynąć na zmianę kursu ale pierwszy taki w długim strumieniu pomyj...

[259]

Dzień dobry.
Azja nie przejęła się Kurodą. Rozegrała konsolkę i poszła spać.
Reszta finansowego świata ma wolne. Na dzisiaj to już chyba koniec akcji.

[259]

Today’s orderboard

Peter Jackson | May. 27, 2013 07:11 GMT | Major Currencies
Peter Jackson

EUR/USD: Bids 1.2900/10, sell stops below through tenkan line 1.2897, ahead of bids 1.2850/70 and 1.2825/35. Sell stops through 1.2820 ahead of bids 1.2800/10 (sovereigns), sell stops below through 1.2795. Offers start from 1.2960 (1.2967-38.2% of 1.3243/1.2796) ahead of tech res 1.2980/85 (55 day MA 1.2982) and offers 1.3000/20 (200 day MA 1.3022). Buy stops above through 1.3025, ahead of daily 1.3037 cloud base

GBP/USD: Offers 1.5150/70 (tenkan line 1.5169) buy stops also above ahead of offers 1.5190/00, possible buy stops above ahead of tech res 1.5250/70 ( 55 day MA, cloud base 1.5263),. Bids 1.5100/10 and1.5065/75 stops through 1.5060 ahead of stronger bids 1.5000/20 ( Thurs low 1.5014, barrier 1.5000).

EUR/GBP: Bids 0.8535/40, tech support 0.8520/25 (100 day MA 0.8521) and 0.8500/05 (tenkan line 0.8505), sell stops below ahead of tech supp/bids 0.8475/80 (21 day MA 0.8475). Offers 0.8565/70 and 0.8595/00 (Fri high 0.8597) and 0.8610/15 (cloud top 0.8613), possible buy stops above.

USD/JPY: Bids 100.65/75 (Fri low 100.66) some sell stops below, ahead of bids 100.50 trailing down to 100.00 from importers. Large sell stops on break of 100.00. Offers 101.15/35, buy stops above ahead of offers from 101.65 up to 102.00 Buy stops above ahead of offers 102.15/25 (tenkan line 102.21) buy stops above.

EUR/JPY: Bids 130.30/40 ahead of larger bids 130.00/10. Sell stops below ahead of tech supp 129.55 (May 9 Lows) Offers initially 130.90/00, buy stops above ahead of offers 131.50/60 and 1.3185/00 (tenkan 131.86)

AUD/USD: Bids 0.9625/35 and 0.9600/10, sell stops through 0.9590 (Thurs low 0.9593), but tech supp just below at 0.9581 (2012 lows), sell stop below through 0.9580. Offers 0.9650/60 and 0.9700/20, possible buy stops above ahead of offers 0.9750/60 (tenkan line 0.9757), buy stops above

[ForexTig3r]

By Harriet Torry

BERLIN--European Central Bank executive-board member Joerg Asmussen Monday urged caution on the debate over negative ECB deposit rates, saying "monetary policy is not an aspect of economic policy" and said in his view the ECB can do nothing to fix uncompetitive economies that have failed to reform and win trust.

Both ECB President Mario Draghi and Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny have recently made comments suggesting an open mind to the notion of a deposit rate below zero.

Mr. Asmussen said he is "one who is less open" to the idea than others. He said the discussion is ongoing, but the central bank needs to be "very careful" considering the advantages and disadvantages.

A negative deposit rate would mean that banks would need to pay the ECB for depositing their funds with the central bank. A negative interest rate may push banks to put their excess funds to other use, rather than placing them with the ECB, economists say.

The ECB's main refinancing rate is at a record low of 0.50%, and its deposit rate remains at 0%.

The central banker made the comments during a breakfast at the trade and commerce chamber IHK in Berlin.

On Europe, Mr. Asmussen said deducting investments from deficits is the "wrong path," likely referring to proposals in the media that the European Commission may soften its deficit rules by crediting states for their own co-financing of European Union structural projects.

The central banker said the EU stability and growth pact, which aims to ensure fiscal discipline in the bloc, offers flexibility like extra time to hit deficit targets, "not more."

That flexibility "shouldn't be messed around with" or weakened through artificial calculations, Mr Asmussen added.

By Tatsuo Ito
TOKYO -- Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda is calling on commercial banks with solid capital positions to be more aggressive in lending, something the central bank sees as crucial to getting the economy out of deflation.

"The process to overcome deflation is also the process for the financial system to recover its vigor," Mr. Kuroda said Sunday at a gathering of academics in Tokyo.

The BOJ regards a shift in funds by financial institutions from safe government bonds to riskier assets, such as stocks and foreign assets, as one of the mechanisms it wanted to put in motion with its unprecedented monetary easing undertaken in April. The strategy also includes getting banks to initiate more lending,

Such a shift, called a "portfolio rebalancing effect," is one of the three things the BOJ hopes to bring about, the others being putting broad downward pressure on bond yields and achieving a rise in inflation expectations toward a 2% rate of inflation in two years.

Mr. Kuroda said that unlike in the late 1990s, when Japanese banks were saddled with mountains of nonperforming loans, banks now have the capital to expand lending and are resilient to external shocks, such as a rise in interest rates.

Referring to a question of whether banks have been fulfilling their role in the economy, he said that low profit margins in lending have kept them from being "full of vigor and dynamism."

Mr. Kuroda acknowledged that recent reports showed that banks have increased lending for activities related to mergers and acquisitions, real-estate and natural-resources transactions, but he said loans to smaller companies have remained "sluggish."

The BOJ's latest data showed bank lending rose 2.1% in April from a year earlier, the largest percentage gain since July 2009.

Mr. Kuroda's comments come amid a jittery Japanese government bond market that saw the 10-year JGB yield rise to 1% last week, the highest in more than a year.

Following the BOJ's policy-board meeting Wednesday, Mr. Kuroda pledged to conduct market operations flexibly to stem an unintended spike in long-term interest rates that is inconsistent with growth and inflation prospects.

Even if interest rates rise by one to three percentage points, "there are no major concerns over possible instability in the financial system," as long as such a rise is accompanied by improvements in the economy and prices, he said.

That is because banks can bolster profits by increasing lending with bigger margins and with higher share prices, he said.

On the other hand, he warned that a rise in interest rates triggered by concerns about fiscal conditions in the absence of an economic recovery or a rise in lending margins could induce "strong adverse effects' on financial institutions, causing unrealized capital losses on bondholdings.

The government is expected to present its pro-growth strategy in June and make a final decision around autumn on whether it will raise the sales tax beginning in April 2014, a crucial step toward its fiscal overhaul.

The country's fiscal condition is among the worst of industrialized economies, with outstanding government debt around 200% of gross domestic product.

"It's above all important for the government to bring fiscal reform and growth strategy into action," Mr. Kuroda said.

He also encouraged households to move some of their savings from bank deposits -- which are mainly invested in government bonds -- into riskier assets, because diversification is "desirable" for households.

He said there is "no sign at this point of excessively bullish expectations in asset markets, or in the activities of financial institutions," based on recent indicators and the behavior of financial institutions.