RBA Rate decision preview: due at 0530BST, expected on hold at 3.50%. Almost all analysts expect the RBA to keep policy rates unchanged at 3.50%, with only one analyst looking for a 25bps cut. In terms of recent data, Australia Q2 CPI decreased to 1.2% y/y, undershooting the 2-3% inflation target but underlying inflation held around 2% y/y. However, the July minutes showed members did not see an argument for further easing given the rate cuts announced over the past few months. A recent speech by RBA Governor Stevens also indicated he thought that monetary policy was ‘about right’.
AUSTRALIA: RBS' senior fx strategist Greg Gibbs says the RBA may acknowledge the tightening in financial conditions created by the relative strength in the aussie in their statement today and monetary policy statement on Friday. "However, they will be reluctant to hint at any direct action to halt the gains in the AUD. One suspects they will say as little as possible about the AUD out of concern for raising unrealistic expectations that they may be able to push it down. No point painting a big target on your forehead," Gibbs says. According to Gibbs, the RBA is no doubt aware from liaison that sovereign and safe haven demand is causing gains in the aussie. "At some point the RBA could decide that this source of demand was taking the AUD too high relative to commodity prices, but that judgment is probably still some ways off," Gibbs says.
i wstępna porcja opcji.
Option expiries of note for Tuesday 7th August 2012
EUR/USD: 1.2400, 1.2425
USD/JPY: 78.00, 78.50
EUR/GBP: 0.7970
AUD/USD: 1.0610
AUSSIE: Now at $1.0584 still near the top of the morning's $1.0555 to $1.0588 range so far. RBA decision due in a few minutes, and a no-change outcome likely to nudge aussie-dollar toward that $1.0600 barrier.
AUSTRALIA: Reserve Bank leaves rates on hold.
AUSSIE BONDS: Knee-jerk reaction to RBA decision sees Aussie bonds extend losses a little to session lows, bouncing back to sit largely flat of the day, then heading lower again. The 3Y was last at 2.80%, with the 10Y at 3.27%.
AUSTRALIA: from the Reserve Bank statement: "As a result of the sequence of earlier decisions, monetary policy is easier than it was for most of 2011, with interest rates for borrowers a little below their medium-term averages. While it is too soon to see the full impact of those changes, dwelling prices have firmed a little over the past couple of months, and business credit has over the past six months recorded its strongest growth for several years. The exchange rate, however, has remained high, despite the observed decline in the terms of trade and the weaker global outlook. At today's meeting, the Board judged that, with inflation expected to be consistent with the target and growth close to trend, but with a more subdued international outlook than was the case a few months ago, the stance of monetary policy remained appropriate. "
AUSTRALIA: More from the Reserve Bank statement: "The Bank's assessment of the outlook for inflation is unchanged: it is expected to be consistent with the target over the next one to two years. Maintaining low inflation over the longer term will, however, require growth in domestic costs to continue their recent moderation as the effects of the earlier exchange rate appreciation wane."
AUSSIE: Briefly slips to $1.0575 after RBA keeps OCR unchanged at 3.50% as expected, but now back up at $1.0590.
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Euro-dollar closed in NY at $1.2402 following a fairly subdued session
with trade in the US contained within a relatively tight range of
$1.2374-1.24298. Rate slipped into early Asian dealing, squeezed down to
$1.2385 but failed to trigger reported decent sized stops placed on a
break below. Recovery to $1.2407 was driven by decent demand from a UK
merchant bank, but upside momentum quickly faded on order exhaustion.
Rate then settled around $1.2400 ahead of the European open, squeezing
toward $1.2390 in early trade as rate tracked Aussie's corrective
pullback after it eased from its brief sojourn above $1.0600. Market
seen waiting for developments concerning Spain and Italy, though no
signs as yet that either country is close to asking for debt aid.
Germany factory orders at 1000GMT this morning's data interest with
another light calendar in the US. Bids remain to $1.2385 with stops
below. Further demand at $1.2370 with more stops on a break though to
run into bids at $1.2360/50. Offers $1.2410 through to $1.2470, with
barrier interest remaining in place at $1.2450 and larger at $1.2500.
Dollar-yen closed in NY Monday at Y78.25 having recovered off Y78.14
lows. Asian trade opened light on strong yen sentiment and aided by some
exporter supply slipped to Y78.16 ahead of the Tokyo fix. The pair met
strong demand in the dip and bounced to Y78.20, extending gains to
Y78.30 on the euro-dollar recovery, later easing to settle in a tight
range. Offers reported at Y78.50, more at Y78.60. Strong support seen
into Y78.00, a break to semi-official bids at Y77.90 with stops set.
Euro-yen closed in NY Monday at Y97.00 and traded a very light session.
The cross moved in tandem with dollar-yen on the open and with exporter
supply seen adding weight the rate printed Y96.83. Strong demand after
the fix lifted to Y96.90, extending to Y97.13 amid light flows. On the
topside offers reported at Y97.25, stronger behind at Y97.50. Bids seen
at Y96.70, ahead of Y96.50.
Cable closed in NY at $1.5603 after rate had corrected back from
recovery highs of $1.5643. The correction continued into Asia with rate
slipping to an early low of $1.5578. Rate then settled between
$1.5580/95 ahead of the European open, pressing on $1.5580 in early
trade. Euro-sterling consolidated Monday's rally to stg0.7962, holding
between stg0.7946/59, opening around stg0.7950 into Europe. The pound
continues to trade with a softer tone as market adjusts positions ahead
of Wednesday's key BOE Inflation Report with most expecting a dovish
tone from BOE King. Cable demand seen into $1.5570 (76.4%
$1.5547-1.5643), a break to expose Monday's low at $1.5547. Bids noted
into $1.5545 with stops placed on a break of $1.5540. Resistance
$1.5640/50. The cross expected to retain the lead, with offers noted
into stg0.7965/70, a break to open a move toward stg0.8000. Bids in the
cross seen at stg0.7945/40 ahead of stg0.7920. UK industrial/mfg output
data due for release at 0830GMT will provide this morning's interest. US
calendar again seen light.
Elsewhere, 'filling-in' on the sharp move higher in euro-Swiss seen in
NY trade. One trader notes that a UK clearer's algo 'went beserk',
hitting a thin market around Chf1.2014/15 before market went Chf1.2050
bid, then Chf1.2070 bid before a major NY bank's prime brokerage took
over. Trader says on checking saw that around E40mln went through toward
the high print of Chf1.20928. UBS were calling Chf1.2020 the high, BoT
Chf1.2025, Goldman Chf1.2050 and Citibank Chf1.2067. Traders then
received an email from EBS which confirmed all euro-Swiss trades dealt
between 20:12 and 20:15 GMT up to the high of Chf1.20928 are valid and
should be booked accordingly. Stops will therefore be done, but some
sell orders likely to have remained unfilled.
Turning to the technical picture, the euro tested Fibonacci level at
$1.2445 before pulling back within the Bollinger band. The daily studies
are firm, but further Fibonacci resistance stands at $1.2478 and
$1.2539, while the 5 & 21-DMAs turn support at $1.2319 and $1.2253.
Cable sees the 5, 55 & 21-DMAs turn support at $1.5577/82/96 as bulls
face moving average and Fibonacci resistance from $1.5731 (200-DMA) to
$1.5786 (a 50% retracement of the decline from 30 April to June 1.
Studies are mixed, with 10-day momentum firm but the stochastic study
weakening.
Dollar-yen holds under the base of the Ichimoku cloud of Y79.42 with
initial MA and Ichimoku resistance at Y78.61 and Y79.01/17. This is
keeping bear's attention on June lows of Y77.66, despite the daily
studies turning higher, seeking a base. Initial light resistance is at
Y78.35 from the 5-DMA and Tenkan line. There are also minor trendlines
at Y77.96/79.00.
Euro-yen also sees the daily studies attempt a recovery, although bulls
face Fibonacci resistance at Y97.88 and Y98.76 as the 5 & 21-day moving
averages turn support at Y96.33/49.
In other markets, the major European bourses are initially seen flat
Tuesday. Spreadbetters Cantor Index are calling the FTSE up 5, the DAX
up 1 and the CAC down 5.
The Dow and Nasdaq scored solid gains at the start of the session Monday
but proved unable to hold on to all of those gains. Dow ended the day up
24 points to close at 13,120 but had seen an intra-day high at 13,187.
Nasdaq ended in better shape, added 22 points or 0.74% to end at 2990
after briefly poking over the 3000 mark earlier in the day. US index
futures are trading flat to modestly higher in Asian trade Tuesday. The
Sep S&P mini contract was last unchanged at 1390.0, with the Nasdaq Sep
mini was last 5.0 points higher at 2691.5. Dow futures are also edging
higher, up 2 at 13069.
Japan's benchmark indices are trading higher Tuesday, with the Nikkie up
0.7% at 8787 and the TOPIX up 0.9% at 742.3.
Crude futures are nudging lower in Asian trade Tuesday, although still
underpinned by the rally in risk assets and ongoing geopolitical
concerns over the mid-east region. The front-month WTI contract last
traded at $92.09, down 11 cents on the day, having traded a range of
$91.82 to $92.16
Looking ahead, core-European data sees Italy industrial output for June
as well as the flash estimate of Q2 GDP data at 0800GMT.
UK data at 0830GMT includes weekly fuel prices as well as Industrial
Production.
The IP data is expected to be exceptionally weak, with two days output
lost due to the long Jubilee weekend that will not be filtered out in
the seasonal adjustment. A plunge in June industrial production was
factored into the first estimate of Q2 GDP, with National Statistics
estimating output dropped 3.5% on the month, contributing to a fall of
1.3% on the quarter. The key element of these data is how close they are
to that estimate, with any substantial departure raising the possibility
of a subsequent revision to the 0.7% quarterly fall in GDP. The median
forecasts are for IP to fall by a reading of -4.2% m/m, -6.0% y/y with
manufacturing output -4.3% m/m, -5.8% y/y.
Germany manufacturing orders for June are due at 1000GMT and are
expected to come in at -1.0% m/m, -7.2% y/y.
US data starts at 1145GMT with the weekly ICSC-Goldman Store Sales data,
followed at 1255GMT by the weekly Redbook Average.
At 1400GMT, the Canadian Ivey Purchasing Managers Index for July is due.
Later on, at 1830GMT, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke hosts a town
hall meeting with educators from across the country at Board
headquarters.
Late US data at 1900GMT includes the June Federal Reserve Consumer
Credit data as well as July Treasury Allotments By Class.
Consumer credit usage is expected to rise $10.0 billion in June after
the $17.1 billion surge in June. Retail sales fell 0.5% in the month and
were down 0.4% excluding motor vehicle sales.
EURO-SWISS: Just getting reports 'filling-in' on the sharp move
higher in euro-Swiss in NY. One trader notes that a UK clearer's algo
'went beserk', hitting a thin market around Chf1.2014-15 before
market went Chf1.2050 bid, then Chf1.2070 bid before a major NY bank's
prime brokerage took over. Trader says on checking saw that around
E40mln went through toward the high print of Chf1.20928. UBS were
calling Chf1.2020 the high, BoT Chf1.2025, Goldman Chf1.2050 and
Citibank Chf1.2067. Traders then received an email from EBS which
confirmed all euro-Swiss trades dealt between 20:12 and 20:15 GMT up to
the high of Chf1.20928 are valid and should be booked accordingly. Stops
will therefore be done, but some sell orders likely to have remained
unfilled.
... zbieraj pips do pipa bo jak nie to z depo będzie lipa... G."niemiaszek"
EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- Aug 7 Italy Q2 GDP data
- Aug 7 Italy parliament vote final approval for spending cuts
- Aug 7 Greece sells new 26-week T-bill for E625mln
- Aug 7 EFSF sells new 3-month Bill for E1.5bln
- Aug 8 ECB start of reserve maintenance period
- Aug 8 German 10-year Bund re-opening auction for up to E4.0bln
- Aug 9 ECB publishes August monthly report
- Aug 10 Greek T-bill redemption for E1.0bln
- Aug 14 Eurozone Q2 GDP data
- Aug 14 Italy BTP auction cancelled
- Aug 15 Italy T-bill redemption for E10.15bln
- Aug 16 Spain bond auction cancelled
- Aug 17 Portugal T-bill redemption for E1.2bln
- Aug 20 Greek bond redemption of 4.10% 2012 for E3.13bln
- Aug 21 Spain T-bill auction
BONDS: German government bonds are trading little changed Tuesday, with
yield curve holding flattening bias, in line with US Treasuries. US
Treasuries found a modest bid at the longer-end of the curve in the wake
of the Fed's Rosengren article in the NY Times that the latest jobs data
underlines his view the Fed must act to boost growth in the US.
Rosengren said that the Fed should boost the holdings of mortgage paper
and USTs until the FOMC was happy with the overall state of the economy.
On the sluggish recovery, Rosengren said : "For the last seven months
we've been treading water... I think it's time to swim to shore."
Volumes are seen light ahead of key event risks today, that includes
Italy Q2 GDP and eurozone flash estimate of Q2 GDP data. Italy's
parliament vote final approval for spending cuts and comments from
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke later today. Also eyed today in
the eurozone is T-bill supply from Greece for E625mln and the EFSF sells
3-month Bills for E1.5bln. US sells 3-year Notes for $32.0bln.
... zbieraj pips do pipa bo jak nie to z depo będzie lipa... G."niemiaszek"
Intraday options that are due to expire today at 10am NY cut (1500BST) USD/JPY - 78.00/50
EUR/USD - 1.2400
USD/CHF - 0.9700
EUR/GBP - 0.7925, 0.7970
AUD/USD - 1.0550, 1.0615
US PRESS: The IMF is under pressure from its members over the large sums lent to the euro-zone, is pushing European governments to take steps to lighten the burden of the bailout loans they made to Greece, the Wall Street Journal reports. This comes amid signs Greece's problems have thrown the country's bailout program woefully off track from targets set earlier, the report says citing unnamed officials familiar with the discussions. The IMF wants Greece's debt to be reduced to "sustainable" levels before the fund releases more funds to keep Athens from running out of cash.
EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- Aug 7 Italy Q2 GDP data
- Aug 7 Italy parliament vote final approval for spending cuts
- Aug 7 Greece sells new 26-week T-bill for E625mln
- Aug 7 EFSF sells new 3-month Bill for E1.5bln
- Aug 8 ECB start of reserve maintenance period
- Aug 8 German 10-year Bund re-opening auction for up to E4.0bln
- Aug 9 ECB publishes August monthly report
- Aug 10 Greek T-bill redemption for E1.0bln
- Aug 14 Eurozone Q2 GDP data
- Aug 14 Italy BTP auction cancelled
- Aug 15 Italy T-bill redemption for E10.15bln
- Aug 16 Spain bond auction cancelled
- Aug 17 Portugal T-bill redemption for E1.2bln
- Aug 20 Greek bond redemption of 4.10% 2012 for E3.13bln
- Aug 21 Spain T-bill auction
Ostatnio zmieniony 07 sie 2012, 09:08 przez Stforex, łącznie zmieniany 1 raz.
Rzeczywiście , patrząc na dane i rozumując jak Governor Steavens, to nie jest im na ręke drogi Ossie, ale jako mąż stanu kroczy jedyną słuszną i dobrą drogą . Dlatego środki podjęte do tej pory są wystarczające i nie będzie luzowania, niech się Sam luzuje.
Muszą trzymać fason. Ale presja jest, nie da się zaprzeczyć. Czekam co zrobi z BoJ. Pewnie Mr. Stevens również. Australia jest w tej dobrej sytuacji, że ma czas... a czas to pieniądz
ECB: The ECB said a total E1.014 bn was borrowed at the marginal rate via the overnight facility Monday with a total E311.714 bn deposited. Current account deposits are at E541.65 bn. Today is the last day of the current maintenance period.
Zastanawiam się, czy podbiją Edka jeszcze jedną figurę do 2500 czy dadzą spokój na opcjach 400-425 . Wczoraj nie było siły, żeby nadać kierunek. Dziś Włoskie GDP.
PS. Zauważcie, że prognoza to aż -2,5%!!! Poprzedni odczyt (Y/Y) to -1,4%. Dość sobie z tym forecast pofolgowali. I teraz kwestia, czy duży kapitał patrzy na ten śmieszny forecast, czy ma swoje własne prognozy? To zakrawa wręcz na manipulacje, ustawienie punktu odniesienia tak, żeby zły wynik wydawał się dobry.
Stforex pisze:PS. Zauważcie, że prognoza to aż -2,5%!!! Poprzedni odczyt (Y/Y) to -1,4%. Dość sobie z tym forecast pofolgowali. I teraz kwestia, czy duży kapitał patrzy na ten śmieszny forecast, czy ma swoje własne prognozy? To zakrawa wręcz na manipulacje, ustawienie punktu odniesienia tak, żeby zły wynik wydawał się dobry.
Ja byłbym za szortem na edku, zresztą od rana próbuje, ale wyglada że pod prad bo juz mi pare SL wpadlo, pytanie tylko jak dobrze zauważyłeś czy prognoza jest uszyt pod złe dane na jego umocnienie ??? Tak to logicznie wyglada , no ale jak wiadomo logika to jest najmniej ważna liczy się spekulacja . Czyli prognoza już wchłania częśc uderzenia, chyba że będzie aż tak zła, ale z drugiej strony może być to zagranie na dwie strony. Najsmpierw góra bo wiadomo fajnie na zielono, potem chwila refleksji , że jednak jest do banii bo poleciało w dół , czyli niedobrze i spadamy do 1.23400.
. Wczoraj nie było siły, żeby nadać kierunek. Dziś Włoskie GDP.