FX: Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut...updated,
* Euro-dollar; $1.2300, $1.2350(large), $1.2400, $1.2500(large)
* Dollar-yen; Y78.00, Y78.25, Y78.35, Y79.00, Y79.20
* Euro-yen; Y95.50
* Cable; $1.5600
* Aussie; $1.0500, $1.0520
EGB SUMMARY: German government bonds are trading higher Monday,
despite risk-on, albeit in thin Olympic summer volume conditions. Sep
Bund futures opened little changed, but then squeezed higher during the
morning, as traders noted that Friday's selloff was on speculation that
Spain would ask for a bailout this weekend, which didn't materialize and
there are some unwinds of that trade going on now. Spanish Econ Minister
de Guindos at the weekend said Spain was in no rush to request a bailout
and expects to wait until & see what conditions would accompany bailout
before making a decision, given Spain has completed 72.6% of its gross
funding so far. Periphery yield curves are extending their steepening
moves in the wake of comments from ECB Draghi that bond buys would
primarily address the shorter end of the curve. Spain 10Y spread is
trading 3bps tighter at 535bps. Portugal 10Y spread 53bp tighter at
+861bp after ECB reported bank borrowing data fell to E56.84bln in July
vs E60.5bln in June. However, Italy spread is 7bp wider at +468bp after
S&P took rating actions on 32 Italian financial institutions late Fri.
Pogaduchy przy porannej kawie
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niemiaszek
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niemiaszek
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- Rejestracja: 08 lis 2010, 15:02
Germany Govt Signals Approval Of ECB Draghi Bond Buying Plan
06-sie-2012
BERLIN (MNI) - The German government on Monday signaled approval of
the European Central Bank's plan whereby governments first need to apply
for assistance from Europe's bailout funds and agree to associated
conditions before the central bank will consider intervening in their
bond markets.
"ECB President [Mario] Draghi has made very clear in his remarks
last week that politicians have primacy in the euro crisis," government
spokesman Georg Streiter said at a regular press conference here.
"The government has no doubt that everything that the ECB does will
be in the framework of its mandate," he said. "The government approves
what is happening at the moment."
German Economics Minister Philipp Roesler last week told German
n-tv television that "bond purchases are an option for the European
Central Bank." Yet, he cautioned that the ECB must take care to strike
the right measure when buying bonds in order to avoid any inflation
threats.
GOLD SUMMARY: Spot gold prices have spent much of this morning's session
edging their way higher in tandem with other risk assets although
trading volumes have been light for much of the session. Gold prices
opened in Asia just above Friday's close of $1603.48 and initially
slipped to hold at session lows of $1602.80. Prices gradually firmed up
to above $1608 a troy ounce before paring back to $1604 an hour into the
European cash equity opening. Since then, the precious metal advanced to
intra-day highs of $1610.61, just ahead of resistance currently working
above around $1612/14. Prices remain underpinned in anticipation of the
prospect that the US Federal Reserve will finally pull the QE trigger
when they hold their next meeting scheduled for Sept 12-13, with the
probability a little firmer now after Friday's US jobs data showed an
unexpected rise in the unemployment rate to 8.3% from market expectation
levels of 8.2%. Spot gold prices are expected to remain in a holding
pattern over the next few weeks, with $1592 now providing the main line
of support ahead of the next Fed meeting. Spot gold last $1608.20.
06-sie-2012
BERLIN (MNI) - The German government on Monday signaled approval of
the European Central Bank's plan whereby governments first need to apply
for assistance from Europe's bailout funds and agree to associated
conditions before the central bank will consider intervening in their
bond markets.
"ECB President [Mario] Draghi has made very clear in his remarks
last week that politicians have primacy in the euro crisis," government
spokesman Georg Streiter said at a regular press conference here.
"The government has no doubt that everything that the ECB does will
be in the framework of its mandate," he said. "The government approves
what is happening at the moment."
German Economics Minister Philipp Roesler last week told German
n-tv television that "bond purchases are an option for the European
Central Bank." Yet, he cautioned that the ECB must take care to strike
the right measure when buying bonds in order to avoid any inflation
threats.
GOLD SUMMARY: Spot gold prices have spent much of this morning's session
edging their way higher in tandem with other risk assets although
trading volumes have been light for much of the session. Gold prices
opened in Asia just above Friday's close of $1603.48 and initially
slipped to hold at session lows of $1602.80. Prices gradually firmed up
to above $1608 a troy ounce before paring back to $1604 an hour into the
European cash equity opening. Since then, the precious metal advanced to
intra-day highs of $1610.61, just ahead of resistance currently working
above around $1612/14. Prices remain underpinned in anticipation of the
prospect that the US Federal Reserve will finally pull the QE trigger
when they hold their next meeting scheduled for Sept 12-13, with the
probability a little firmer now after Friday's US jobs data showed an
unexpected rise in the unemployment rate to 8.3% from market expectation
levels of 8.2%. Spot gold prices are expected to remain in a holding
pattern over the next few weeks, with $1592 now providing the main line
of support ahead of the next Fed meeting. Spot gold last $1608.20.
... zbieraj pips do pipa bo jak nie to z depo będzie lipa... G."niemiaszek"
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_/_/Dariusz_/_/
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GOLD: COMEX gold holding above the $1,600 mark today, despite the lack
of central bank action last week. Barclays commodities analysts say
their economists are putting the probability of QE3 at "1 one in 3," so
they predict gold may struggle to gain traction. They also note physical
demand has been lacklustre ahead of the seasonally strong period for
consumption in India -- however, ETP flows have picked up in the
last week. They peg near-term resistace at $1630 and support at $1,584.
FED: Here is the link to Bernanke's speech-
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevent ... 20806a.htm
of central bank action last week. Barclays commodities analysts say
their economists are putting the probability of QE3 at "1 one in 3," so
they predict gold may struggle to gain traction. They also note physical
demand has been lacklustre ahead of the seasonally strong period for
consumption in India -- however, ETP flows have picked up in the
last week. They peg near-term resistace at $1630 and support at $1,584.
FED: Here is the link to Bernanke's speech-
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevent ... 20806a.htm
... zbieraj pips do pipa bo jak nie to z depo będzie lipa... G."niemiaszek"
Wygląda na to, że rynek nigdzie się nie wybiera. Ani dzisiaj, ani w tym tygodniu.
Można sobie pograć w konsolki - zawsze można coś wykroić, albo wybrać się tam gdzie jest już większość - na plażę
Jakby kto się mnie pytał gdzie tak gólnie rzecz biorąc wybiera się Edek to powiedziałbym, że jest w ostatniej fazie czyśćca i choć może nie zamierza wystrzelić 3-5 dużych figur do góry to jednak nie ma też zamiaru już plątać się w zęzie. Powoli ale systematycznie gra przechodzi ze sprzedawania rajdów, na kupowanie spadków.
Można sobie pograć w konsolki - zawsze można coś wykroić, albo wybrać się tam gdzie jest już większość - na plażę
Jakby kto się mnie pytał gdzie tak gólnie rzecz biorąc wybiera się Edek to powiedziałbym, że jest w ostatniej fazie czyśćca i choć może nie zamierza wystrzelić 3-5 dużych figur do góry to jednak nie ma też zamiaru już plątać się w zęzie. Powoli ale systematycznie gra przechodzi ze sprzedawania rajdów, na kupowanie spadków.
Jakże często ludzie mają już gotową opinię zanim zdążą pojąć istotę rzeczy.
A gdy już ta istota w pełni do nich dotrze, jakże często muszą zmagać się z konsekwencjami swojej opinii ;-)
A gdy już ta istota w pełni do nich dotrze, jakże często muszą zmagać się z konsekwencjami swojej opinii ;-)
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_/_/Dariusz_/_/
- Pasjonat
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EURUSD – needs more upside soon, or else.
06-sie-2012 15:45
Markets are still in limbo despite last week's drama - EURUSD needs to take out the next resistance level to keep the focus to the upside. Aussie looks very stretched ahead of RBA - but could it stretch higher still before consolidating?
The market is apparently a bit shell-shocked after the crazy back and forth of last Thursday and Friday, as today saw trading ranges very constrained after a brief zip higher in Asia in EURUSD and in JPY crosses that was quickly erased. The long end of the yield curve at the periphery saw little improvement today, but the market continues to make a strong vote in favour of Euro stability as the short end of the curve in Spain in particular has come ripping lower - another 55 basis points lower in fact, taking the Spanish two-year yield benchmark to below 3.50% now and thus to a new low since early May. Compare that with the brief spike to 7.00% in late last month. The moves on the Italian yield curve were of lower amplitude, but yields also headed lower there and the 2-year in Italy was a hair below 3.00% as of this writing.
Looking ahead
The strong move in the short end of the peripheral European yield curve is easing the pressure on the EU tail risks and is Euro supportive, all other factors being equal . The question for further out, of course, is whether EU politicians can begin to address the EU debt crisis more credibly and whether proper debt restructuring of bank and some public debt ever becomes a part of the debate. It will have to if the EU is to stay together. If it is lucky, it appears that the ECB bluster may have bought a brief window of time for the Euro to consolidate. A close above 1.2400 could set in motion a sequence toward 1.2600-1.2750, but I still think this is an exercise in timing the next turnaround.
Chart: EURUSD
We still have near term limbo for EURUSD, as we've yet to see the pair close through the key 1.2400 area and 55-day moving average. If it does, it's easier to argue that the ECB has bought a window of time in which the single currency can continue to consolidate some of its losses. It is worth noting that "pattern reversals" in EURUSD have been miserably bad at predicting future action in recent weeks - and now we've seen two in a row - will they both prove unsuccessful.
06-sie-2012 15:45
Markets are still in limbo despite last week's drama - EURUSD needs to take out the next resistance level to keep the focus to the upside. Aussie looks very stretched ahead of RBA - but could it stretch higher still before consolidating?
The market is apparently a bit shell-shocked after the crazy back and forth of last Thursday and Friday, as today saw trading ranges very constrained after a brief zip higher in Asia in EURUSD and in JPY crosses that was quickly erased. The long end of the yield curve at the periphery saw little improvement today, but the market continues to make a strong vote in favour of Euro stability as the short end of the curve in Spain in particular has come ripping lower - another 55 basis points lower in fact, taking the Spanish two-year yield benchmark to below 3.50% now and thus to a new low since early May. Compare that with the brief spike to 7.00% in late last month. The moves on the Italian yield curve were of lower amplitude, but yields also headed lower there and the 2-year in Italy was a hair below 3.00% as of this writing.
Looking ahead
The strong move in the short end of the peripheral European yield curve is easing the pressure on the EU tail risks and is Euro supportive, all other factors being equal . The question for further out, of course, is whether EU politicians can begin to address the EU debt crisis more credibly and whether proper debt restructuring of bank and some public debt ever becomes a part of the debate. It will have to if the EU is to stay together. If it is lucky, it appears that the ECB bluster may have bought a brief window of time for the Euro to consolidate. A close above 1.2400 could set in motion a sequence toward 1.2600-1.2750, but I still think this is an exercise in timing the next turnaround.
Chart: EURUSD
We still have near term limbo for EURUSD, as we've yet to see the pair close through the key 1.2400 area and 55-day moving average. If it does, it's easier to argue that the ECB has bought a window of time in which the single currency can continue to consolidate some of its losses. It is worth noting that "pattern reversals" in EURUSD have been miserably bad at predicting future action in recent weeks - and now we've seen two in a row - will they both prove unsuccessful.
... zbieraj pips do pipa bo jak nie to z depo będzie lipa... G."niemiaszek"
Wbrew pozorom może być ważne.US DATA: July Employ Trends Index 108.11 vs 107.68r June; this is +5.9% YOY. Conf Bd says this suggests "that slow employment growth is likely to continue in the next few months." ETI had 5 components up, of 8.
Dzisiaj nudy, bo odreagowanie po ubiegłym tygodniu. Wszyscy okopani. Z rana grubasy zrealizowały profit, teraz jakieś inne grubasy podkupiły na 350. Co ciekawe, nikt się nie przejął downgrade'em włoskich instytucji finansowych.
Zdaje się że kiedyś coś wspominałem o sytuacji gdy negatywy przestają kogokolwiek wzruszać, a bardziej reaguje się na pozytywy, nawet jak byle jakie... coś jak ta przesadzona banieczka o tym Draghim co miał uratować świat jedną konferencją ;-)Stforex pisze:Co ciekawe, nikt się nie przejął downgrade'em włoskich instytucji finansowych.
Choć akurat ten downgrade jest po prostu konsekwencją wcześniejszego downgrade długu publicznego więc nic co mogłoby zdziwić. Dzieje się tak za każdym razem: najpierw dług publiczny, potem instytucje które kupowały ten dług.
No bo najpierw idzie król, a potem świta...
Gdy niedźwiedzie znudzą się już niedźwiedziowaniem bo stare złe jest już ograne, a nowego złego brakuje i w ogóle ciężko coś sprzedawać bo nie wiadomo czy zaraz nie dołek to co się wtedy dzieje? To już było wałkowane przez samego chyba Dow'a więc klasyka rynku…
Jakże często ludzie mają już gotową opinię zanim zdążą pojąć istotę rzeczy.
A gdy już ta istota w pełni do nich dotrze, jakże często muszą zmagać się z konsekwencjami swojej opinii ;-)
A gdy już ta istota w pełni do nich dotrze, jakże często muszą zmagać się z konsekwencjami swojej opinii ;-)
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_/_/Dariusz_/_/
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Tylko że to był downgrade tych mniejszych banków nie tych dużych jak Unicredit itd. , dlatego to było bez emocji. Te duże zostały nietknięte.259 pisze:Stforex napisał:
Co ciekawe, nikt się nie przejął downgrade'em włoskich instytucji finansowych.
Zdaje się że kiedyś coś wspominałem o sytuacji gdy negatywy przestają kogokolwiek wzruszać, a bardziej reaguje się na pozytywy, nawet jak byle jakie... coś jak ta przesadzona banieczka o tym Draghim co miał uratować świat jedną konferencją
Choć akurat ten downgrade jest po prostu konsekwencją wcześniejszego downgrade długu publicznego więc nic co mogłoby zdziwić. Dzieje się tak za każdym razem: najpierw dług publiczny, potem instytucje które kupowały ten dług.
No bo najpierw idzie król, a potem świta...
Objective perspective, just businiess...