1. W wątku DT omawiamy bieżąca sytuacje na rynku i to co dotyczy danego dnia. Od dłuższych prognoz jest dział Prognozy, komentarze, analizy
2. Zamieszczamy tylko i wyłącznie swoje analizy. Nie kopiujemy z innych serwisów.
3. Komentarz do własnej analizy nie może mieć charakteru rekomendacji. (to nie jest dział z sygnałami)
4. Kłótnie, ataki na innych użytkowników są niedopuszczalne.
5. Nie zaśmiecamy wątku. (wypowiedzi w stylu: "dałem S", "ja kończę na dziś" itp. jak i chwalenie się swoimi statami)
Nagminne łamanie powyższych zasad będzie skutkować nałozeniem zakazu pisania do końca bieżącego tygodnia.
Recydywa będzie karana ostrzeżeniami.
Przypominam że ponadto obowiązuje Regulamin Forum
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Przedstawione poglądy, oceny, opinie i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów
autorów i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji do nabycia lub zbycia albo
powstrzymania się od dokonania transakcji w odniesieniu do jakichkolwiek walut.
Poglądy te jak i inne treści nie stanowią "rekomendacji" lub "doradztwa"
w rozumieniu ustawy z dnia 29 lipca 2005 o obrocie instrumentami finansowymi.
Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte lub zaniechane
na podstawie poniższych analiz ponosi inwestor.
kabel.... znowu huczy jak te ostatnie spadki na 1500 pip z tym ze gdy wtedy spadalo to był powod bo dane były wręcz zjebane a teraz z jakiej paki? bo jakiś prezio cos tam powiedział? ism, pmi i inne gowna rekordowo wysokie, gospodarka pre do przodu a tu zwala od wczoraj już 300 pipsow wiec albo wlasnie wycinają stopy tym co poszli spac albo ciśniemy grubo poniżej 1.5.....
Jutro dane na które wszyscy czekali cały tydzień i powrót pejsów, a cugan pisze o konsolidacji...
Żaba pisze, że dziś jesteśmy tam gdzie wczoraj, a po za tym jakbym słyszał zeussa...
Coś ta dwójka ekstremalnie nisko zaszła...
Czuję że z moją pozycją na AUDCAD będą wielkie nici...
Żaba sam trójkąt na edku zauważyłeś i zasięg to 2855.
Jutro zapewne tam dojedziemy...
Przedstawione, poglądy, oceny i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów autora i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji. Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte i z wykorzystaniem wniosków w nich zawartych, ponosi inwestor. subsilver2趋势线
EUROPE: The US market returns from the Independence Day holiday and jumps
straight back into the fray with the monthly employment report. There is also
expected on the Continent and comments from ECB officials in the wake of the
"forward guidance" offered by President Draghi at the Thursday meeting. Data
kicks off at at 0645GMT, when the May French trade data will be published. From
0730GMT, Germany's upper house debates and votes on the 2013 supplementary
federal budget. Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble will likely speak at some
point in the debate. At 1000GMT, German May manufacturing orders data is set for
release. Factory orders are seen up 1.2% on the month, higher by 0.1% on year.
ECB Executive Board member Benoit Coeure will deliver a speech to the Amundi
World Investment Forum, in Paris at 1030GMT. At 1100GMT, ECB Governing Council
Member Erkki Liikanen and EU Economics and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli
Rehn are due to speak in Mikkeli, Finland.
UK PRESS: Ahead of a UK Parliamentary debate on whether there should be an
"in/out" EU referendum in the next parliament, the CBI warns a "halfway house"
on Europe, such as models used by the Swiss and Norway, do not offer a credible
option for the UK.
US: The main release comes at 1230GMT, when the US Jun Non-farm Payrolls,
Unemployment and average earnings numbers will cross the wires. Nonfarm payrolls
are forecast to rise by 160,000 in June after a larger-than-expected 175,000
increase in May. The unemployment rate is expected to fall back to 7.5% after
rising to 7.6% in May. Hourly earnings are forecast to rise 0.2%, while the
average workweek is expected to hold steady at 34.5 hours. Late US data sees the
release of the June Treasury STRIPS data at 1900GMT and the Money Supply (M2)
numbers for the June 24 week at 2030GMT.
EURO SUMMARY: The single currency had dropped to a $1.2883 low in the European
session after ECB Draghi's comments but then consolidated between $1.2913-32 for
the remainder of the US holiday-thinned session before opening in Asia near
$1.2915. Euro-dollar opened heavy in Asia as markets reacted to the dovish BOE
and ECB comments, sending the pair back near the overnight low, to $1.2890. The
move however stalled just shy of rumoured sell-stops below $1.2870, thanks in
part to bids believed to be for sovereign accounts. With further bids then
spotted from $1.2850 and $1.2800, euro-dollar extended the slow grind and made a
show back above $1.2900, however recovery attempts continue shallow, say
traders. Ahead of the US payrolls report at 1230GMT, dealers are advising
cautious buying on further dips, highlighting the presence of large stops from
$1.2950 and $1.2975/80, before fresh sell orders would then come into play from
$1.3040/50.
EURO-DOLLAR: After a quiet Asian session the euro continues heavy unable to
consolidate above $1.2900 with trade tied to a narrow range. The overnight low
at $1.2888 provides initial support, through here opens bids at $1.2880, ahead
of $1.2877 (50% of $1.2043-1.3711) with stops seen on a break of $1.2870. Rate
last $1.2893 with focus clearly on the US jobs report at 1230GMT.
EURO-DOLLAR: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals) $1.3040/50 Strong offers ($1.3047 - 100-day ma)
$1.3033 Wednesday Jul 3 high
$1.3023 Jul 4 high
$1.3000 Medium offers $1.2975/80 Medium offers, stops ($1.2973 - 5-day ma)
$1.2940/50 Strong offers, large stops ($1.2943 - 76.4% of $1.2797-1.3417)
$1.2917/21 Asia high, Jul 2012 support line
$1.2895 ***Current mkt rate 0620GMT Friday
$1.2888 Asia low
$1.2885/80 Medium demand $1.2877/70 50% of $1.2043-1.3711, Stops
$1.2860/50 Strong demand
$1.2843 Daily Bollinger band base
$1.2830/20 Medium demand $1.2805/00 Strong demand ($1.2804/00 - Rev low Oct 2012, Supp line Nov 2012)
STERLING SUMMARY: With NY out for Independence day, cable closed on a heavy tone
in Europe at $1.5075. The BOE left rates unchanged as expected, however as some
traders had suggested the Bank accompanied the decision with a statement. Cable
immediately slipped from $1.5260 to $1.5171 on release of dovish comments that
warned market rates have risen sharply and sees this weighing on the outlook for
UK's economy. Second wave sales took rate through the $1.5100 barrier to
extended lows of $1.5055, before a modest bounce settled into the close.
Euro-sterling spiked to 3 month highs of stg0.8632 on the BOE
announcement/statement, later paring gains in the European afternoon following
ECB Draghi's press conference and dovish tone to close around stg0.8565.
Sterling opened heavy in Asia as traders reacted to the overnight BOE/ECB news,
rate pressed from $1.5075 to $1.5026, finding support ahead of techs at $1.5022
(1.618% swing projection of $1.5130-1.5305). Cable extended the recovery to
$1.5055 but as momentum stalled settled in a tight range ahead of Europe. The
cross bounced to stg0.8587 in early Asia, before paring light gains to settle
around stg0.8570-80.
CABLE: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
$1.5220 Medium offers/76.4% $1.5264-1.5074
$1.5183/84 61.8% of $1.4830-1.5750, 76.4% of $1.5010-1.5750
$1.5156 27 May high & 5-day ma
$1.5130/35 Medium offers/$1.5130 Weds Jul 3 low
$1.5110 Minor offers
$1.5090/00 Medium offers ($1.5094 - Supp line from Mar low)
$1.5075/80 Medium offers ($1.5080 - Asia high)
$1.5044 **Current market rate 0634GMT Friday
$1.5030/25 Medium demand ($1.5028 - Asia low)
$1.5022 Tech 1.618% swing projection of $1.5130-1.5305
$1.5010/00 Strong demand/$1.5009 May29/Stops
$1.4980 Strong demand
$1.4955/50 Strong demand, stops ($1.4954 - Monthly Bollinger band base)
$1.4915 14 Mar low
YEN SUMMARY: A subdued overnight session for yen pairs was quickly overcome as
the Asian session got underway, with dollar-yen initially catching a moderate
bid tone after the US hours, from around Y100.15/20, which carried the pair up
from its open near Y100.00. Mild euro-yen dips sapped some of the dollar-yen
strength, with added supply from Japanese exporters kicking in at Y100.30. Risk
appetite continued and the gains picked up pace again as Japanese stocks
continued to rise through the morning (the Nikkei 225 up 1.25% at the morning
close), this fueled a recovery in euro-yen with spec accounts reported buyers of
dollar-yen on the dip. The dollar extended gains to Y100.47, while the cross
topped out at Y129.63 before both pairs eased to Y100.30 and Y129.39 as momentum
faded. With the US back from their holiday and payrolls data due ahead, traders
note of sell orders from Japanese exporters from Y100.50 up to Y101.00, the
latter mark also believed to contain a large option cut due to roll off at the
NY cut.
JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japan's benchmark stocks are higher Friday. The Nikkei 225
was higher by 291.04 points, or 2.08% at 14309.97. The session trading range was
14663.38 to 15942. Into the close, the broader-based TOPIX was higher by 16.15
points at 1186.86. Market breadth indicators saw 206 issues higher, 15 lower and
4 unchanged. Preliminary volume stood at 1.552 bn shares.
AUSSIE: Started in Sydney this morning around $0.9147, after a $0.9087 to
$0.9182 European range and, with US markets closed yesterday for the 4th of July
holiday, there was a strong sense of indecision as the session got underway.
Aussie-dollar was trapped between $0.9130 and $0.9154 through the early part of
the morning, with euro and sterling weakness after last night's ECB and BOE
comments seen as main factors adding weight. Losses extended in the late morning
to fresh lows of $0.9123 as many headed for the exit before key US employment
report, traders note of macro accounts pressing euro-aussie down, while
aussie-yen was also under pressure from Japanese names. Market consensus for now
seems to be that aussie-dollar's $0.9110/60 range may hold until the US
re-opens, with next support then seen at $0.9090/85, while heavy sell orders are
believed to still be in place toward $0.9200.
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: Eurozone sovereign bond issuance has been completed for this
week and totals E16.858bln vs E18.3bln issued last week. To re-cap, on Tuesday
Austria tapped E900mln of 4.65% Jan 2018 RAGB and E600mln 2.40% May 2034 RAGB
issues. On Wednesday Germany sold E3.365bln of its 5-year benchmark 0.25% Apr
2018 Bobl. On Thursday Spain allotted E1.023bln 3.30% Jul 2015 Bono and E2.98bln
3.75% Oct 2018 Bono. Also on Thursday France allotted E5.36bln 1.75% May 2023
OAT and allotted E2.63bln 2.75% Oct 2027 OAT. Bond issuance is scheduled to fall
to E16.5bln next week with plans from Netherlands, Germany, Italy and Belgium.
EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- Jul 05 German upper house votes on 2013 supplementary federal budget
- Jul 05 ECB announces 3-year LTRO repayment for following week
- Jul 05 EU Rehn to speak at the "Summer Symposium", in Mikkeli, Finland
- Jul 08 Eurogroup meeting
- Jul 09 EconFin meeting
- Jul 10 ECB start of reserve maintenance period
- Jul 10 Italy T-bill auction
- Jul 11 Italy BTP auctions
- Jul 12 ECB announces 3-year LTRO repayment for following week
- Jul 12 Italy T-bill redemption for E10.645bln
- Jul 12 Greek T-bill redemption for E1.625bln
- Jul 16 Spain 6-/12-month T-bill auctions
US: Timeline of upcoming key events in the US:
- Jul 05 June Payrolls, est +160k; UR 7.5%, AHE +0.2% at 0830ET
- Jul 05 Jun Treasury STRIPS at 1500ET
- Jul 05 Jun Treasury Allotments at 1500ET
- Jul 05 Money Supply (M2) at 1630ET
- Jul 08 Jun Empl Trends Index at 1000ET
- Jul 08 Tsy Cpn Purch Feb 15 2013-May 15 2043 $1.25 - $1.75 billion
- Jul 08 UST announces 4wk at 1100ET
- Jul 08 UST auctions 3/6mo at 1130ET
- Jul 08 May Consumer Credit at 1500ET
- Jul 09 ICSC-Goldman Store Sales at 0745ET
- Jul 09 IMF releases WEO, IMF Chief Econ Blanchard briefing at 0930ET
- Jul 09 May JOLTS at 1000ET
- Jul 09 Tsy Cpn Purch Aug 15 2020-May 15 2023 $2.75 - $3.50 billion
- Jul 09 UST auctions 4wk at 1130ET
- Jul 09 UST auctions 3y at 1300ET
Ostatnio zmieniony 05 lip 2013, 08:37 przez niemiaszek, łącznie zmieniany 1 raz.
... zbieraj pips do pipa bo jak nie to z depo będzie lipa... G."niemiaszek"
dla euro dobrze .
