Pogaduchy przy porannej kawie

[259]

tez jestem zawiedziony jakoscia transmisji, mogli mu na kasku hd hero zamontowac

napewno miał tylko jak narazie to nie dla "ludu" i trzeba poczekać, bo podczas transmisji w czasie wznoszenia w komentarzu było, że ma na sobie 5 kamer(kombinezon+kask), więc materiał szczegółowy z tego co się działo w trakcie lotu jest na 100%, ale BBC kręci dokument z całego przedsięwzięcia, więc najlepsze zostawili dla siebie

Też mi się tak wydaje. I raczej nie będą tego rozdawać za darmo...
PS: Rzepa wystawiła screenshot z youtube z całym tym śmieciem wynikłym z wysokiej kompresji przy niskiej rozdzielczości, kompletna amatorka... ;-)

[259]

Całkiem gęsty mamy ten tydzień i to już od Poniedziałku:

03:30 Chiński CPI i PPI
14:30 US Retail Sales

Wtorek:

02:30 RBA Minutes - co jeszcze da się wycisnąć z tej "niespodziewanej" obniżki stóp?
10:30 UK CPI i PPI i House Price i Retail Price - z pół talii kart…
11:00 Eurowóz CPI i takie tam… Aha, Niemiecki ZEW - to dość szczególny raport - ma większe znaczenie medialne niż jakiekolwiek inne więc może być małą turbulencja ;-)
14:30 US CPI - czy FED robi czy nie robi inflację? Jeżeli robi to złoto w górę ;-)
Mało?
15:15 US Industrial Production i Manufacturing Production - jak to z nimi jest: jadą w górę czy w dół? Risk on czy off?

Środa:

10:30 UK BoE Minutes ale co ważniejsze Jobless Claims/Claimant Count/Employment Change/Unemployment Rate…
14:30 US Housing Starts… ten rynek zaczyna pokazywać jakieś oznaki życia. Jeżeli zacznie się ruszać na tyle żeby generować nowe miejsca pracy w więcej niż śladowych ilościach to świat zacznie patrzyć w przyszłość zdecydowanie bardziej optymistycznie.
16:30 To istotne dla tych co handlują czarnym złotem: stan zapasów ropy i paliw w USA

Czwartek:

02:30 Australia Business Confidence
03:30-04:00 Tutaj rządzą Chiny: cała seria raportów, w tym takie perełki jak: GDP, Retail Sales, Industrial Production…
10:30 wracamy do Funta: UK Retail Sales
14:30 USA - tradycyjnie Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
16:00 US Leading Indicator można sobie darować bo nigdy niczego sensownego nie wskazał ale za to koło Philly FED nie da się przejść tak spokojnie bo ma całkiem, całkiem wpływ na risk on/off...

Piątek:

03:35 znów Chiny - MNI Business Sentiment - nie wiem czy ma to jakieś znaczenie
08:00 Niemcy - Producer Prices. To ma znaczenie bo żeby Niemcy mogli zapłacić za ten cały bałagan to muszą jakoś na to zarobić…
16:00 US Existing Home Sales... to z kolei konkurencja dla nowo powstających domów. Ale za to sprzedaż na rynku wtórnym napędza sprzedaż wyposażenia.

Ufff… i tak sporo ominąłem, np. całą Japonię i Kanadę.

[259]

I całe risk on wyparowało tak szybko jak się pojawiło... znów tygodniowy rozkład jazdy?

[Stforex]

14:30 US CPI - czy FED robi czy nie robi inflację? Jeżeli robi to złoto w górę

PPI wypadło ostatnio ponad oczekiwania. Pytanie jak szybko przełoży się na CPI. Chyba jeszcze trochę wcześnie...? Ucieczka w towary i surowce, nawet jeśli w większości podyktowana psychologią, z pewnością w końcu się odbije. Najpierw spekuła, no a jeśli jesteś przedsiębiorstwem, to czemu nie zrobić zapasów drożejącego surowca. I bańka gotowa. A kto za to zapłaci... wszyscy wiemy. Czasem sobie myślę, że wszystko na tym świecie jest w ten sposób poukładane. Najsłabszy zawsze jest dymany.

15:15 US Industrial Production i Manufacturing Production - jak to z nimi jest: jadą w górę czy w dół? Risk on czy off?

Tak patrzę, to fundamentalnie chyba najważniejsza informacja w tym tygodniu.
Jeszcze może init. jobless z uwagi na wzmianki, że QE ma być pod rynek pracy dopasowywane.

[Stforex]

Pozwolę sobie douzupełnić kalendarz

Dziś w nocy przemawiał prezes BoJ - Shirakawa. Zaraz postaram się coś podrzucić z przemówienia.

Ind. prod w Japonii wypadła poniżej oczekiwań -4,6% vs. -4,3% exp. (YoY), -1,6% vs. -1,3% exp (MoM)
Wygląda, że spadek popytu na wysoką jakość i rozwinięte technologie zaczyna dawać się Japońcom we znaki. Co z tego, że technologia kosmiczna kiedy w portfelu dutków mało.

Dziś o 10:00 PL Baroso przemawia w parlamencie europejskim. Może będzie jakiś nowy filmik z Farage'm

W czwartek od 3:30 PL startujemy z paczką danych z Chin w tym GDP oraz kilka "medium'ów"

[Stforex]

EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- Oct -- Possible Moody's Spain ratings action (due anytime October)

- Oct 15 EU Barroso/Barnier speaks in European Parliament
- Oct 15 Italy T-bill redemption for E7.0bln
- Oct 15 Italy BTP redemption for E18.373bln

- Oct 16 German Merkel to meet Swedish PM Reinfeldt in Berlin
- Oct 16 Bank of Italy releases Quarterly Economic Bulletin
- Oct 16 Greece to sell 13-week T-bill for E1.25bln
- Oct 16 Spain T-bill auction (12-/18-month)
- Oct 16 EFSF sells new 6-month T-bill for E2.0bln

- Oct 17 Portugal sells 3-/6-/12-mth T-bill for E1.75bn-E2.0bn combined

- Oct 18 ECB meeting
- Oct 18 Spain bond auction

- Oct 18/19 EU Leaders Summit, Brussels

- Oct 19 Spain T-bill redemption for E9.02bln
- Oct 19 Greek T-bill redemption for E1.625bln

EUROZONE ISSUANCE: Eurozone sovereign bond issuance this week is estimated at E19.0bln compared to E13.76bln last week.

Slovakia kicks off issuance on Monday with tap of the 4.35% 2025 SLOVGB216 for estimated size of E50.0mln.

On Wednesday, Germany re-opens its 2-year benchmark 0.00% 2014 Schatz issue for up to E5.0bln.

On Thursday, France taps 0.75% 2014 BTAN, 2.00% 2015 BTAN, 2.50% 2016 BTAN and 1.00% 2017 BTAN issues for between E7.0bln-E8.0bln. In addition, France also plans a new 0.10% 2021 OATi on the same day for between E1.5bln-E2.5bln.

Also on Thursday, Spain taps 4.00% 2016 Bono, 4.25% 2016 Bono and 5.85% 2022 Obligaciones issues -- size details due to be announced Monday, but estimated to be up to E3.5bln. Also eyed, is the "BTP Italia" bond -- a four year government bond indexed to domestic inflation that is included in this year's funding programme -- orders taken from Monday to Thursday.

Once again, supply is outweighed by reinvestement flows

Jeszcze holendrzy coś kombinują.
Wygląda na to, że Euro stało się teraz w miarę bezpieczną i nieźle płacącą przystanią. Zatem ten risk off cały, to może być ściema.

EU MORNING CALL - 15/10/12

- Safe haven flows were seen overnight into the USD as uncertainty over the near-term picture in Spain and Greece continue to weigh, promoting EUR/USD to consolidate around the 1.2900 level.

Elsewhere, the AUD weakened after comments over the weekend from RBA’s Stevens that the Australian central bank has maximum flexibility to reduce the key rate if needed as Australia returns to a surplus; increasing speculation that there will be a rate cut at the RBA’s November meeting.

- Although there was a slew of tier 1 economic data out of China overnight none proved to be particularly market moving with CPI in-line with expectations at 1.9%, trade balance showed a bigger surplus than expected, with a strong export number, being assisted by seasonal factors such as Christmas and New Year holidays. Participants are now awaiting the key GDP data due this Thursday.

- China has "relatively large space" to use monetary and fiscal policy to support its economy as needed, PBOC’s Deputy Gov. Yi Gang.

- Troika has concluded Greece needs two more years to complete its reforms, which would increase the bill for creditors by some EUR 30bln, citing sources. This gap could only be filled if public institutions, such as the ECB, took a hit on some of the Greek debt it holds or a third bailout package is agreed.

- According to Eurozone sources, Spain could ask for financial aid from the Eurozone next month and if it does the request would likely be dealt with alongside a revised loan programme for Greece and a bailout for Cyprus in one big package.

- UK Rightmove House Prices (Oct) M/M 3.5% vs. Prev. -0.6%; Y/Y 1.5% vs. Prev. 0.7%

Euroland’s debt strategy is an economic and moral disgrace…
Written by Pete Jackson
October 15, 2012 at 05:39 GMT
“The IMF has demolished the intellectual foundations of Europe’s debt crisis strategy”

Today’s option expiries
Written by Pete Jackson
October 15, 2012 at 05:17 GMT
For the 1000 NY/1400 GMT cut:
EUR/USD: 1.2895, 1.2900, 1.2925, 1.2970 (L), 1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3100
GBP/USD: 1.6150 (L)
EUR/JPY: 101.00
AUD/USD: 1.0100, 1.0200, 1.0250
USD/CHF: 0.9525
NZD/USD: 0.8200

Hm.. nic o przemówieniu nie znalazłem.

[niemiaszek]

CFTC: Dollar short sharply reduced as EUR, JPY and AUD are sold

Hedge Funds reduced their dollar shorts by the most since September 2011 according to data from the CFTC covering the week ending October 9. Some net 10 billion dollars were bought primarily against EUR, JPY and AUD leaving the aggregated dollar short against the eight IMM currency futures at a much reduced 13 billion. Only the CHF saw some buying interest during week.

- EUR short was extended for the first time in seven weeks as investor confidence grew that the current EURUSD rally is running out of steam following an impressive short squeeze during the last couple of months. It does however leave many new fresh short positions in the market and if EUR 1.2800 manages to hold and a new break back into the 1.30s is seen it could trigger a new bout of short covering.
- AUD continues to suffer from long liquidation with the net long positions reduced by 38 percent last week. A slowing China, a recent rate cut and continued dovish comments from the Reserve Bank of Australia are doing the damage and it is now only the third most popular IMM currency behind CAD and MXN.
- JPY investors remain very undecided about the near-term direction as far as positioning continues to go and it is down on a weekly basis.
- CAD only saw a slight reduction and remains investors' clear favourite on the back of firmer oil prices and a hawkish central bank.

[niemiaszek]

BONDS: German government bonds are opening little changed Monday as
players await key EU leaders summit scheduled Thursday into Friday and
US quarterly earnings. EU leaders are meant to be discussing bold
visions for the further integration of the eurozone, where the main
elements have already been set out in a report from EU's Van Rompuy. The
meeting will give some indication of appetite for further integration
steps - deemed essential to preserving the single currency. Issues of
more immediate concern, namely Spain's impending bailout request and the
progress of talks between the Troika & Greece could easily swamp the
formal agenda of the summit. Current thinking is that Spain's request
for a bailout is being held up by the resistance of Germany's leaders
and that Chancellor Merkel wants to combine any Spanish bailout request
with the next tranche of aid for Greece into one ominous package which
she will put before the German Bundestag in Nov. Also eyed are US
quarterly earnings, where 80 S&P 500 companies scheduled to report this
week -- this includes Citigroup and Charles Schwab Corp due today.

[niemiaszek]

CFTC: Precious metals longs overextended as prices falter

Speculators increased their net long positions across 24 different commodity futures and options for a second week in a row, according to data from the CFTC covering the week ending October 9. Some 27k contracts were added, bringing the total net long to 1,719,000 contracts, representing a value of USD 137.9 billion.

The metal sector added 12.7k contracts (USD 1.6 billion). But the grain sector was reduced for a fifth week in a row, as some 28.2k contracts at a value of USD 1.2 billion were net sold, with corn sold the most just ahead of a bullish WASDE report last Thursday.


Energy: The WTI net position rose by 6.8k, primarily due to a 17.5k rise in the ICE WTI contract. This contract can be traded as a spread against ICE Brent, and it could indicate some increased spread activity after it reached the highest level since October 2011.

Metals: The gold net long was increased for an eighth week in a row With many new long positions having been established during this period, some increased risk of a correction has emerged, not least now that USD 1800 on gold has proven a very tough nut to crack. The same goes for silver, where the net speculative long position has more than quadrupled since early August, reaching the highest level in two years.

[niemiaszek]

Gold ETF holdings rising while momentum falters

Last week saw another rise in the amount of gold held through Exchange Traded Funds. It rose to a new record of 2,582 metric tonnes (MT) and has now increased by 165 MT since this current gold rally began in mid August.


During the same time leveraged investors through futures and options increased their net-long position by 390 MT to 759.8 MT, some 140 MT below the record from August 2011.


A risk of a deeper correction, especially following the rejection of the important USD 1,800 level, is now the near-term danger, as so many new long positions has been established during the last couple of months. As mentioned above some 555 MT has been added over a relatively short period and with futures traders in particularly being much quicker to react to adversity some nervousness will be witnessed over the coming sessions.

The overall direction for gold, however, still points towards higher prices so even a potential correction as deep as back to the 200 DMA, currently at USD 1,660 would most likely not change this perception.