Pogaduchy przy porannej kawie

[Esco]

Short na EURCHF najpewniejszy setupu na dziś.

edit:

EGB FLOWS: Market sources report German name has been selling Chf
as CHF carry trade and bought Italian & Spanish Govt bonds mainly
2-year region, expecting ECB to reactive SMP today.

[_/_/Dariusz_/_/]

EGB FLOWS: Market sources report German name has been selling Chf
as CHF carry trade and bought Italian & Spanish Govt bonds mainly

To by sugerowało że CHF będzie spadał, skoro się go pozbywa.

Czyli EBC skupi bondy i obniży ich rentowność ?

[Stforex]

8-9 sierpnia zbiera się BOJ, to może być bardzo ciekawe wydarzenie.

Będzie tam dwóch nowych członków, widać że rynek czeka na to wydarzenie bo na większości par jenowych konsolidacja.

Którzy, nawiasem mówiąc, są zwolennikami różnych form interwencji.

[_/_/Dariusz_/_/]

Którzy, nawiasem mówiąc, są zwolennikami różnych form interwencji.

Tak , ale generalnie jest przesłanie że wszyscy chcą pobudzać gospodarkę przez luzowanie pieniądza co w długiej perspektywie ma dać rozwój.
Tylko ten rozwój będą wykonywać chyba wysokowyspecjalizowane roboty .

Ciekawe swoją drogą jaką Japończycy mają politykę prorodzinną, bo chyb a tam powinni uderzyć przy starzejącym się społeczeństwie.

[Stforex]

Ale zauważyłeś, że teraz mało kogo interesuje dłuższy rozwój?
Liczy się szybki zysk lub ochrona kapitału.

[_/_/Dariusz_/_/]

Ale zauważyłeś, że teraz mało kogo interesuje dłuższy rozwój?
Liczy się szybki zysk lub ochrona kapitału.

No właśnie, ciekawe jak z oprocentowaniem w EZ ???
Są już jakieś przecieki, może pojadą na 0.5 %

[259]

Tylko ten rozwój będą wykonywać chyba wysokowyspecjalizowane roboty .

Którym to robotom ta polityka nie jest do niczego potrzebna, za to są w stanie zrobić, że ta polityka i tak nie będzie miała sensu przy bezrobociu pow. 50%...

Ciekawe swoją drogą jaką Japończycy mają politykę prorodzinną, bo chyb a tam powinni uderzyć przy starzejącym się społeczeństwie.

Japończycy mają 100% socjal - każdy jest objęty opieką państwa. I to dobrze rozumiany socjal. Choć jak przykłady pokazują niekiedy nadużywany - renta babci czy dziadka jest tak cenna, że nie zgłasza się ich zgonów... byłą taka afera nie tak dawno temu.
Tak czy inaczej - to wszystko to puste gadanie. BoJ nieustannie "interveniuje" już od lat i nikt specjalnie już tym się nie przejmuje. Owszem, udało im się raz czy dwa zatrzymać rynek na jakieś dwa-trzy tygodnie. I to wszystko.

[Stforex]

BOE: Ahead of the BOE rate and asset purchase facility decision on Thursday, below are some analyst expectations:

- Morgan Stanley: On hold for now, extra Stg100bln in QE by Q1 2013, and 25bps rate cut in November

- BNP Paribas: No change in rate, but extra Stg50bln QE and 25bps rate cut in November. - Soc Gen: No change in rate, but extra Stg50bln QE and 25bps rate cut in November.

- Barclays: No change in rate, but extra Stg50bln QE and 25bps rate cut in November.

- Goldmans: Rate on hold, but extra Stg25bln QE and 25bps rate cut in November.

- Rabobank: BOE in "wait and see mode"

[_/_/Dariusz_/_/]

Rabobank: BOE in "wait and see mode"

Dzięki za informacje.

Jeśli nie mają kasy to z nieba im nie poleci, więc albo QE BoE albo rate cut.
Mario pewnie dzisiaj się przyczai i nie powie nic nowego, tylko że wtedy rynek odbierze to negatywnie .

The German newspaper Sueddeutsche Zeitung reported today that The European Central Bank (ECB) is preparing for a “concerted action” with the Euro bailout funds to bring down the borrowing costs of highly indebted nations mainly Spain and Italy.

The newspaper said that the ECB would act along with the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) to halt the current hiking in borrowing costs by purchasing Italian and Spanish bonds. Under the plan, the ESM would buy bonds directly from the governments, while the ECB would buy them from the secondary market.

The paper said without citing any sources. “Within the ECB Governing Council, there is a majority in favor of re-starting the purchases and coordinating them with governments, while the ECB would not announce an official decision on such a move today.

However, the ECB President Mario Draghi would echo comments he made last week, when he said the bank would do all it could to save the euro. As he might signals about this bond program and whether it will be soon or not and he could also show more details about this program.

In fact, there are many significant obstacles to such a move as it needs a German top court approval which won’t happen before September 12 along with the approval of the euro 17 members.

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(Reuters) - Gold prices rose back above $1,600 an ounce in Europe on Thursday as a retreat in the dollar helped the metal recover some of previous day's decline, but moves were muted ahead of a monetary policy statement from the European Central Bank.

Spot gold was up 0.4 percent at $1,604.11 an ounce at 0943 GMT, while U.S. gold futures for August delivery were up 10 cents an ounce at $1,607.40.

Prices fell 0.9 percent on Wednesday, their biggest one-day drop in more than three weeks, after the Federal Reserve made no mention of more monetary stimulus measures like quantitative easing after a two-day meeting in Washington.

The metal clawed back some lost ground early on Thursday as the dollar retreated ahead of the ECB policy announcement later in the session, however.

The bank's chief Mario Draghi boosted hopes for fresh action to help the euro last week when he said he would do whatever necessary to protect the single currency.

That helped gold prices rally to $1,629.10 an ounce, their highest since mid-June. If he does not announce decisive action, the euro and gold could quickly lose ground, analysts said.

"It is our view that the expectations of market participants are almost at too high with regard to ECB bazooka action," LGT Capital Management analyst Bayram Dincer said. "We regard the risk of downside potential for real asset prices as very high if ECB QE actions are only of the mildest form."

Prices could fall as low as $1,560 an ounce, he said.

The euro hit a session high against the dollar as investors positioned for the possibility of strong action by the ECB later, and after a Spanish bond sale drew decent demand. European shares firmed a touch. <FRX/> .EU

"If the ECB doesn't do something today, there will be disappointment," Mitsubishi analyst Matthew Turner said. "But they will have to do something at some point. The situation is dynamic and will force them to do something."

"So even if it disappoints, that doesn't mean there will not be some kind of easing at some point soon. So I think probably we would still hold the levels that we held in June, July, which was around $1,550."

SOUTH KOREA BUYS GOLD

South Korea said late on Tuesday that it bought 16 metric tons (17.6 tons) of gold in July, its second purchase this year. It is one of a number of countries, mostly in Asia and emerging markets, to have built reserves recently.

"Central bank activity is in part filling in for the tame retail physical buying from the likes of India of late by helping gold on the downside and inserting a price floor," UBS said in a note.

"In turn this has been providing investors with some comfort, that stronger hands are active sub $1,600, but importantly that their comfortable price entry is rising."

Among other precious metals, silver was up 0.4 percent at $27.50 an ounce, while spot platinum was down 1 percent at $1,395.49 an ounce and spot palladium was down 1.1 percent at $580.25 an ounce.

Platinum prices are still languishing near this year's lows, as expectations that demand will remain weak among European carmakers, key consumers of the autocatalyst metal, remained downbeat.

The metal has failed to respond this year to threats to supply from major producer South Africa.

Aquarius Platinum (AQPJ.J)(AQP.L) has reopened the Kwezi shaft at its Kroondal mine in South Africa, where operations were suspended after a deadly attack at the site that left three dead and at least 20 injured, a spokeswoman said on Thursday.

The company said on Wednesday about 200 people, some of them armed, forced their way onto mine property. They are believed to be former employees of a mining contractor, who were dismissed following an illegal strike in June, it said.