259 pisałeś o "kuble wody"
było dzisiaj klika spikingów: Dudley, Powell i Lokhart
FED: Dudley said Fed will take into acct fin'l conditions, cant judge whether
bad communications mean loss of credibility. Bernanke was trying to lay out some
policy paths.
FED: Dudley talked around whether mkt overreacted to taper, possible mkt
overweighted talk; Bernanke was not trying to send signal but was trying to give
clarity.
FED: Dudley said Fed is trying to be open as possible. On unemployment, does
matter why unemploy is declining- eg discouraged workers- and outlook is
relevant.
US OUTLOOK/OPINION: Barclays says NYFed's Dudley's remarks suggest "he is part
of the consensus on the FOMC that the pace of purchases could be moderated later
this year if the data and outlook evolve in line with Fed expectations."
Barclays calls for QE at $70b/mo at Sept FOMC spilt 50-50% Tsys-Agcys, a $15b
reduction.
US OUTLOOK/OPINION: Goldman rates NYFed's Dudley's remarks as dovish.
US OUTLOOK/OPINION: TD says Dudley clarified Fed's message - action depends on
data. "He did not back-pedal on the Fed's expectations to begin reducing the
pace of purchases later this year, he indicated that any subsequent reduction in
the future will be "measured" and dependent on the data." TD says he is fairly
dovish. is jawboning the mkt back into line.
FED: Gov Powell's remarks are fully on board with current Fed statements, leave
him in the majority hoping for taper that ends in mid'14. He says labor mkt has
"made real progress" and econ is healing. He emphasizes "the path of policy will
remain fully data-dependent" -- emphasis is on data, not date. He says low infl
"would be a signal that there is still significant slack in the economy" and on
labor mkt will be watching "labor force participation rate, flows into and out
of employment, and other measures of labor slack." He says after first rate
hike, FOMC "will take a balanced, and in all likelihood gradual, approach (to
moves) consistent with its longer-run goals." FOMC also will respond if econ
does not grow or if mkts misbehave.
FED: Powell said any signal from Bernanke was very small.
FED: Powell said policy will want rates to go up-but far down the road. Said Fed
assets can roll off quickly.
FED: Powell's remarks on rates were a little confusing- his context was that mkt
shouldn't worry about taper reducing the downward pressure on rates since the
continuing presence of assets in Fed's portfolio will continue to dampen rates
(Bernanke's "stock of assets theory"). Having said that, Fed's not selling the
assets only means they stay in portf an additional year or so.
FED: Powell said it's not Fed's role to tell mkt what to do. Current econ data
were pretty good. Thought Bernanke added clarity.
FED: Powell said recent econ data are better and hopes US is in self-reinforcing
cycle up.
US OUTLOOK/OPINION: Citi says the Fed speak has nuanced Bernanke's remarks on
both sides. "Dudley and Powell start with the Bernanke tapering baseline and
data dependence, but spin in opposite directions." Dudley emphasized econ slack
and talked about conditions that could slow Fed tightening. "Powell by contrast
stresses risks to low rates, the possibility that the economy could be stronger,
indications that investors were 'reaching for yield', etc." Citi says Powell
moved hawkish from a formerly centrist view.
FED: Atlanta Fed Pres Lockhart (votes on FOMC in '15) gives middle of road,
tries to reassure mkts. He says if econ evolves to better growth as expected
"the position that the economy does not need quite as much stimulus is fully
supportable." Even so Bernanke comments "do not constitute an enormous shift in
policy. The asset purchase program is best thought of as a supplement to the
FOMC's interest rate policy." Mkts are too volatile in reacting. He expects "the
very low interest rate policy will remain in place for a considerable time after
the end of asset purchases, and thus policy will remain highly accommodative."
Current econ vital signs are mixed, infl calls for close monitoring. Growth
should ramp up ahead in base case.
FED: Lockhart's remarks are all over the map. He is complaining about high
national debt, demurring on knowing anything about the Bernanke successsion, and
said Fed ultimately will have to shrink its bal sheet.
FED: Lockhart said he agrees with idea to hold MBS to maturity.
FED: Lockhart to reporters- could do a faster taper if econ improves. Denies
there was concentrated effort to correct mkt's reaction.
chyba wszycho jasne i klarowne... jak nie zrozumieli Benka to trzeba było jeszcze kilku żeby powiedzieli to samo i dotarło do całej "bandy"
sporo tego, ale warto przeczytać i mieć obraz jak to wygląda u źródła, a nie poprzez "smart money",
SELL or BUY = nothing else...
