na zakończenie sennego dzionka
EURO-DOLLAR: Despite ECB's Asmussen's comments that eurozone data will get
better later in the year, the euro at $1.3085, is not moving higher and seems
content in a $1.3080/90 range for now. Other than mild forays outside ($1.2955
low April 24 and $1.3243 high May 1), the euro has held largely within a $1.3000
to $1.3200 range since early October. Traders expect the break, when it comes,
to be driven more by euro-yen flows (based on Japanese investor outflows into
the eurozone and other countries, or the lack of these flows materializing) than
by straight EUR/USD trading. Since breaking above the psychological Y130 mark
April 9, the cross has closed above Y130 on only 2 occasions despite many
rallies over that level. The cross continues to struggle make a toehold over
Y130 and this is putting a bit of a cap on the euro, traders say. Euro-yen holds
at Y129.60 currently
CABLE: Westpac strategists recommend exiting a GBP/USD long position and have
liquidated their own cable long. They entered into the trade "on the grounds
that it was under-owned and was likely to benefit more than most from an
improved risk sentiment post the BOJ's QQME announcement" and have rethought
that view.
EURO-STERLING: Has had a strong bounce today after stronger than expected German
Factory Orders led to the initial bounce which was then reinforced by Gbp sales
from a UK clearer. However CitiFX Strategy believe that the downside continues
to be vulnerable as data overall out of the Eurozone will continue to disappoint
( market largely ignored weak French Industrial and Manufacturing production).
Additionally with the ECB continuing to sound dovish as opposed to the BOE
awaiting the arrival of Dr Carney in July before making any significant policy
changes the cross could come under further pressure. Resistance expected at the
100dma stg0.8473 and between stg0.8482-0.8498 previous highs between 30Apr-2
May . Current rate stg 0.8450 ( 50% YTD 0.8448)
