Z nedzy do pieniedzy ..:)

[andy11]

4 najbardziej przewidywalne pary w 2 Q

postaram sie przyblizyc 4 najbardziej przewidywalne pary na ktorych bede zajmowac pozycje w 2 Q

1) USD/JPY - para trudna do handlu ale przewidywalna. Zachowanie tej pary
w Q1 nie bylo zachwycajace. Wszyscy oczekuja na nowy sklad BOJ oraz jak beda podejmowane decyzje. Obecny szczyt 3-4 kwiecien napewno bardzo duzo wyjasni, para moze pnac sie w gore badz tez spadac jak
kamien. Ponizej przedstawiam kalendarium do konca roku.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

2) NZD/USD - inaczej kiwi , bardzo dobrze respektuje zakresy, chodzi jak w zegarku od bandy do bandy ( w IQ para 01 styczen - 15 luty - 370 pipek , 15 luty - 18 marzec 370 pipek czyli 740 pipek za 1Q ) czy w 2Q bedzie tak samo i para bedzie na tyle przewidywalna ...

[andy11]

4 najbardziej przewidywalne pary w 2 Q

postaram sie przyblizyc 4 najbardziej przewidywalne pary na ktorych bede zajmowac pozycje w 2 Q

1) USD/JPY - para trudna do handlu ale przewidywalna. Zachowanie tej pary
w Q1 nie bylo zachwycajace. Wszyscy oczekuja na nowy sklad BOJ oraz jak beda podejmowane decyzje. Obecny szczyt 3-4 kwiecien napewno bardzo duzo wyjasni, para moze pnac sie w gore badz tez spadac jak
kamien. Ponizej przedstawiam kalendarium do konca roku.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

2) NZD/USD - inaczej kiwi , bardzo dobrze respektuje zakresy, chodzi jak w zegarku od bandy do bandy ( w IQ para 01 styczen - 15 luty - 370 pipek , 15 luty - 18 marzec 370 pipek czyli 740 pipek za 1Q ) czy w 2Q bedzie tak samo i para bedzie na tyle przewidywalna ...

3) GBP/USD - nieobliczalna para, jednak niedawny jej spadek ponizej SR na W1 spowodowal szacunek dla tej pary inaczej mowiac dla jej SR, LT, fiba... Na koniec kwartalu sadze ze sytuacja na tej parze znacznie poprawi sie kiedy przejmie stery BOE nowy jegomosc ( Pan Mark Carney ).


4) AUD/USD - cena pary ladnie chodzi w kanalach.

[andy11]

Dane 4 kwiecien 2013


08:30 BoJ's Kuroda to Hold Press Conference After Rate Decision

09:45 EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAR) 43.5 43.6

09:50 EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAR F)41.9 41.9

09:55 EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAR F)51.6 51.6

10:00 EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite (MAR F) 46.5 46.5
10:00 EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAR F) 46.5 46.5

10:30 GBP Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAR) 51.5 51.8
10:30 GBP Official Reserves (Changes) (MAR)-$1333M

11:00 EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (FEB) 1.4% 1.9%
11:00 EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (MoM) (FEB) 0.2% 0.6%

13:00 GBP BOE Asset Purchase Target (APR) 375B 375B
13:00 GBP Bank of England Rate Decision (APR 4)0.50% 0.50%

13:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (MAR) 7.0%
13:30 USD RBC Consumer Outlook Index (APR) 47.1

13:45 EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision (APR 4)0.75% 0.75%

13:45 EUR ECB Deposit Facility Rate (APR 4)0.00% 0.00%

14:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAR 30) 353K 357K
14:30 USD Continuing Claims (MAR 23) 3065K 3050K

14:45 USD Fed's Evans, Lockhart Speak on Monetary Policy in Ohio

16:30 USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (MAR 29) -95

18:30 USD Fed's George Speaks on Economy in Oklahoma

23:00 USD Fed's Yellen Speaks in Washington

[andy11]

Opcje 04.kwiecien 2013

EUR/USD: 1.2700, 1.2800(L), 1.2825, 1.2850, 1.2980

USD/JPY: 93.00(L), 94.00(L), 94.25, 94.30, 94.50(L), 95.00, 95.40 95.80(L), 96.00 (L), 97.00(L), 97.50 (L)

EUR/JPY: 121.35

GBP/USD: 1.5100, 1.5200, 1.5400

AUD/USD: 1.0375, 1.0400, 1.0410, 1.0450, 1.0455, 1.0475, 1.0500

EUR/GBP: 0.8450

USD/CAD: 1.0125

USD/CHF: 0.9460

EUR/NOK: 7.4465

[andy11]

Cable under pressure ahead of services PMI release (04.04.2013)

Just off session/day’s lows of 1.5078 as market looks to play it’s usual games ahead of the March services PMI data. Expectations are for a reading of 51.5 from 51.8 for the largest sector of the UK PMI

Look for further downside pressure if its below the median, with tech support seen down at the kijun line at 1.5056 ahead of March 20 low of 1.5026. On the flip-side a strong number should target 1.5159 (Wed high) ahead of the tenkan line at 1.5178 and offers at 1.5200/10. A break there likely to trip some buy stops and open a move up to 1.5260 (Tues high 1.5259)

Cable trades around 1.5082

[andy11]

Cable breaks down through 1.5070 support

EURGBP demand with stop-loss buying through 0.8510 giving weight to further GBPUSD selling and the growing feeling that the BOE might actually add some QE today.
Low posted 1.5058..
currently 1.5068..
bids seen at 1.5050

[andy11]

Kuroda: Will enter new phase of easing in quality and quantity



-Todays policies to change expectations drastically
-BOJ to do more depending on economic developments
-BOJ took all necessary measures for now to meet target
-2% inflation in 2 years is achieveable
-No concern of asset bubble for now
-Currency weakens when monetary easing takes place
-There is more room to purchase ETFs
-No need to cut rate on excess reserves
-BOJ to buy equivalent of 70% of monthly bond issuance
-Not much room to buy more REITS at the moment
-Will continue easing until sustainable price growth
-Natural for yields to decline with BOJ’s easing
-Low yields on short-term bonds will probably continue
-Low probability of side effects for bond market

USD/JPY extends rally on Kuroda comments. Real money seen buying in recent trade.

We’ve been to 95.67, presently 95.55.

For those who like their fibo retracements; 95.73 is apparently the 76.4% retracement of 96.71-92.57 sell-off. Not sure how relevant it’s going to be in these fast markets, but just so you know.

Talk of some sell orders clustered 95.80/00, more buy stops above there.

[andy11]

Today’s orderboard (04.04.2013 )


EUR/USD: Sell stops through 1.2785 ahead of bids 1.2750/70 (barrier 1.2750) with sell stops below ahead of another barrier at 1.2725 and 1.2700. Offers 1.2850/60, larger up at 1.2880/00 (200 day MA 1.2892, tenkan line 1.2901), buy stops above through 1.2905

GBP/USD:
Bids 1.5025/35(March 20 low 1.5026),
Offers 1.5105/15, 1.5135/45 and 1.5160/70 (tenkan line 1.5169), buy stops above ahead of offers 1.5200/10

EUR/GBP:
Bids 0.8485/90 ahead of tech support 0.8450/60 (cloud base 0.8451) and 0.8425/30. Offers 0.8520/25 ahead of stronger at 0.8550/60 and tech res 55 day MA at 0.8576.

USD/JPY: Tech res 95.73 (76.4% of 96.71-92.57) and 95.80/00 likely buy stops above through 96.15.
Bids 95.00/10 and 94.45/55, possible sell stop through kijun line at 94.39, larger bids 94.15/25 ( tenkan line 94.16) and 93.95/05

EUR/JPY: Offers 122 50/70., tech res 122.84 (55 day MA) ahead of offers 122.90/00. Possible buy stops above ahead of tech res 123.80/85 (March 25 highs). Bids 122.00/10 and 121.50/60, sell stops through tenkan line at 121.45

AUD/USD: Tech lvl/supp 1.0400/15 (100 day MA 1.0411) and 1.0385/95 (200 day MA, cloud top 1.0389/91), sell stops below ahead of
bids 1.0350/60.
Offers 1.0440/50 (tenkan line 1.0442) and 1.0480/00 (1.0500 barrier), buy stops above

[andy11]

USD/JPY hits 96.00

Just an absolute massive rally ongoing in USD/JPY. The high so far is 96.00 — a nearly 300 pip gain.
There are reported buy stops above 96.00. The March high of 96.13 might also generate some sell interest but it takes a wild disposition to try to fight this move. Any sellers left will be awfully jittery at this point.

[andy11]

Dane 05.04.2013


09:00 GBP Halifax Plc House Prices s.a. (MoM) (MAR)0.2% 0.5%
09:00 GBP Halifax House Price (3MoY) (MAR) 1.1% 1.9%

09:00 CHF Foreign Currency Reserves (MAR) 427.0B 430.0B

10:00 EUR Italian Deficit to GDP (YTD) (4Q)3.7%

11:00 EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) (FEB) -1.2% -1.3%
11:00 EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) (FEB) -0.4% 1.2%

12:00 EUR ECB Announces 3-Year LTRO Repayment
12:00 EUR German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (FEB) -1.5% -2.5%
12:00 EUR German Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) (FEB)1.1% -2.5%

14:30 CAD Net Change in Employment (MAR) 6.5K 50.7K
14:30 CAD Unemployment Rate (MAR) 7.0% 7.0%
14:30 USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls (MAR) 190K 236K
14:30 USD Unemployment Rate (MAR)7.7% 7.7%

14:30 CAD Full Time Employment Change (MAR) 33.6
14:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings All Employees (MoM) (MAR) 0.2% 0.2%
14:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings All Employees (YoY) (MAR)2.0% 2.1%
14:30 USD Change in Household Employment (MAR) 170
14:30 USD Change in Private Payrolls (MAR) 200K 246K
14:30 USD Trade Balance (FEB) -$44.6B -$44.4B
14:30 USD Two-Month Payroll Net Revision (MAR)-15K
14:30 USD Underemployment Rate (U6) (MAR) 14.3%
14:30 CAD International Merchandise Trade (Canadian dollar) (FEB)0.10B -0.24B
14:30 CAD Part Time Employment Change (MAR) 17.2
14:30 CAD Participation Rate (MAR) 66.7 66.7
14:30 USD Average Weekly Hours All Employees (MAR) 34.5 34.5
14:30 USD Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (MAR)10K 14K

16:00 CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a (MAR) 52.2 51.1

21:00 USD Consumer Credit (FEB) $15.000B $16.151B