Z nedzy do pieniedzy ..:)

[andy11]

Opcje (05.04.2013 )

USDJPY 94.00,95.00,95.50,96.00,96.50

EURUSD 1.2800,1.2850,1.2900,1.2920,1.2950,1.2955,1.3000

GBPUSD 1.4990,1.5100,1.5200

AUDUSD 1.0400,1.0510,1.0525

USDCAD 1.0100,1.0290

EURJPY 123.50

EURAUD 1.2550

EURGBP 0.8550

[andy11]

4 najbardziej przewidywalne pary w 2 Q

postaram sie przyblizyc 4 najbardziej przewidywalne pary na ktorych bede zajmowac pozycje w 2 Q

1) USD/JPY - para trudna do handlu ale przewidywalna. Zachowanie tej pary
w Q1 nie bylo zachwycajace. Wszyscy oczekuja na nowy sklad BOJ oraz jak beda podejmowane decyzje. Obecny szczyt 3-4 kwiecien napewno bardzo duzo wyjasni, para moze pnac sie w gore badz tez spadac jak
kamien. Ponizej przedstawiam kalendarium do konca roku.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

2) NZD/USD - inaczej kiwi , bardzo dobrze respektuje zakresy, chodzi jak w zegarku od bandy do bandy ( w IQ para 01 styczen - 15 luty - 370 pipek , 15 luty - 18 marzec 370 pipek czyli 740 pipek za 1Q ) czy w 2Q bedzie tak samo i para bedzie na tyle przewidywalna ...

3) GBP/USD - nieobliczalna para, jednak niedawny jej spadek ponizej SR na W1 spowodowal szacunek dla tej pary inaczej mowiac dla jej SR, LT, fiba... Na koniec kwartalu sadze ze sytuacja na tej parze znacznie poprawi sie kiedy przejmie stery BOE nowy jegomosc ( Pan Mark Carney ).


4)AUD/USD - cena pary ladnie chodzi w kanalach.

dla przypomnienia...

[andy11]

Today’s orderboard (05.04.2013)



EUR/USD: tech res towards kijun line 1.2941 offers 1.2950/65, buy stops above ahead of more offers 1.2985/00. Bids 1.2900/10,tech supp now at 200 day MA 1.2893 ahead of bids 1.2875/85, 1.2850/60, possible sell stops through 1.2845

GBP/USD:
Bids 1.5200/20, possible sell stops below ahead of bids 1.5150/60,sell stops through 1.5145 ( tenkan line 1.5147).
Offers 1.5240/55, buy stops through 1.5260 ahead of tech res 1.5275/80 (Mar 25 high 1.5280)

EUR/GBP:
Bids/tech supp 0.8450/70 (cloud base 0.8451, tenkan line 0.8466) and 0.8425/30.
Offers 0.8520/25 ahead of stronger at 0.8550/60 and tech res 55 day MA at 0.8578.

USD/JPY:
Bids 96.00/20, sell stops below ahead of bids 95.70/80 and larger 95.25/35.
Offers 96.75/85, more 96.90/10 with buy stops through 97.30

EUR/JPY: Bids 124.35/45, 123.90/10 likely sell stops below, ahead of more bids 123.45/55 and 122.90/10 (55 day MA 122.96). Offers 124.90/00, likely fresh buy stops on a break now ahead of further offers at previous broken res at 125.40/60 buy stops above ahead of barrier at 126.00

AUD/USD: Tech lvl/supp 1.0400/15 (100 day MA 1.0412) and 1.0385/95 (200 day MA, cloud top+ Thurs low 1.0390/91), sell stops below through 1.0385 ahead of
bids 1.0350/60. and further sell stops through 1.0350.
Offers 1.0440/50 (tenkan line 1.0442) and 1.0480/00 (1.0500 barrier), buy stops above

[andy11]

The market has an appetite to buy USD/JPY (05.04.2013)

Non-farm payrolls is a US dollar negative and USD/JPY immediately fell to 95.72 but the buyers were waiting in the weeds and the pair quickly rebounded above the European high to 96.64.
Offers at 96.70/80 with more at 97.00 have stalled the initial move.
I take that as an unequivocal sign that the market is eager to buy USD/JPY and that any dips on the way to 100 will be shallow.

[andy11]

Pound rallies to highest since February 20 (05.04.2013)

Cable jumped following the US jobs numbers, touching a six-week high.

There seems to be some selling interest at 1.5330 but the rally today blew out my orderboard. Technically, the 55-day moving average at 1.5351 is now within striking distance and is a level to watch.

[andy11]

Opcje 08.04.2013


USDJPY 95.00,95.50,96.00,96.50,97.00,98.00,98.25,98.50, ( bold type each USD 1 bln)
EURUSD 1.2800,1.2920,1.2950,1.3115,1.3250
AUDUSD 1.0435
EURJPY 124.00,125.50,127.00

[andy11]

Today’s orderboard (08.04.2013)


EUR/USD: Offers 1.3000/10 and 1.3040/50, Bids 1.2940/50 (kijun line 1.2941), possible sell stops below ahead of bids 1.2890/10 (200 day MA 1.2896, tenkan line 1.2893)

GBP/USD:
offers 1.5340/60 (55 day MA 1.5342) buy stops through 1.5365, ahead of offers 1.5390/00 and 1.5440/55 (1.5452 Feb 20 high).
Bids 1.5285/05, sell stops through 1.5275 ahead of bids 1.5200/20(tankan line 1.5199). Sell stops below

EUR/GBP:
Offers 0.8480/85, 0.8500/05 and 0.8515/20, buy stops above.
Bids 0.8435/40 and 0.8400/15, sell stops through 0.8400 ahead of tech supp 100 day MA at 0.8388

USD/JPY:
Offers 98.80/00 (likely barrier 99.00) buy stops above, tech res 99.65/70 (99.69 50% of 124.12-75.25 fall) ahead of strong offers 99.80/00 (Barrier 100.00), large buy stops above.
Bids 98.00/10, possible sell stops below ahead of bids 97.80/90 (funds) and more down at 97.50/60

EUR/JPY: Offers 128.35/45 and 128.90/00 (Barrier 129.00?). Bids 127.40/.50,127.00/10 and 126.70/80, likely sell stops below

AUD/USD:
Bids 1.0350/60 (1.0352 fibo 38.2% of 1.0116/1.0498 rise, daily cloud top), 55 day MA 1.0359), more bids 1.0300/10 (kijun line 1.0307). Sell stops below.
Offers /tech res 1.0390/10 (200 day MA 1.0390, 1.0411 100 day MA), buy stops above through 1.0425 ( tenkan line 1.0423)

[andy11]

Order board: JPY (08.04.2013)

After this morning’s action so far here’s what’s left out there. And I posted earlier about large ( usd 1 bln +) expiries today ( 10 am new york) at 97.00,98.00,98.25 and 98.50

USDJPY
offers 99.25. 99.50 ( both option barriers) 99.60, 99.75, 100.00 ( both option barriers)
bids 98.50,98.30,98.00,97.60,97.50

EURJPY
offers 128.80, 129.00,129.50,130.00 ( all option barriers),130.30, 130.50 ( option barrier)
bids 128.25,127.75,127.25,127.00,126.50

[andy11]

Order board: AUDUSD (08.04.2013)

offers 1.0400, 1.0420,1.0430,1.0450,1.0480, 1.0500 ( option barrier)
bids 1.0345-50,1.0335,1.0320,1.0300,1.0280, 1.0270,1.0250

[andy11]

BofAML says JPY may weaken to 124 per USD as JGBs slide USD/JPY (08.04.2013)


Bloomberg headline/story

Wire reports comments made by the banks’ technical strategist MacNeil Curry.

JGBs on verge of completing a six-year ending diagonal triangle, a precursor to a bearish trend
This could push JPY towards 124 per USD or weaker, a level unseen since 2007 JPY may initially test 100/101.69

I wonder if he’s the analyst who recently put out their sell cable recommendation that got stopped out?