DayTrading: Piątek 8.02.2013

[niemiaszek]

Hello


EUROPE: With the central bank meetings for the week out of the way, the calendar
starts to slow Friday, although there are releases on both sides of the
Atlantic. At 0700GMT, the German December trade numbers are set for release.
French data is due for release at 0730GMT, when the January Bank of France
business survey will be released. This will be followed by the release of the
French January manufacturing investment survey at 0745GMT. From 0800GMT, senior
politicians will begin to gather in Brussels for the EU leaders summit to
discuss European Budget. Further eurozone data is set for release at 0900GMT,
when Italian December industrial output numbers will be released.



UK: The limited UK data will be released at 0930GMT, when the December Construction
Output numbers will cross the wires.

UK PRESS: The FT says EU budget negotiations could easily extend into the
weekend - if agreement is reached - and is likely to depend on what some unnamed
eurozone official called "creative accounting."



US: The US calendar also gets underway at 1330GMT, with the release of the December
International Trade Balance.
The international trade gap is expected to narrow to $45.5 billion in December
after widening sharply in November on large gains in imports of consumer goods,
autos, and industrial goods. Boeing reported 44 foreign deliveries, up from 34
in November. Import prices fell 0.1% in December, due mostly to a decline in
petroleum prices. The remaining import components combined for a 0.1% rise.
Export prices fell 0.1%, and were down 0.2% when a 0.1% rise in agricultural
products prices was excluded.
The December Wholesale Inventories numbers are ser for release at 1400GMT.
Lastly, at 2045GMT, well after the close of the European markets, US Minneapolis
Federal Reserve Bank President Narayana Kocherlakota speech on risk probability
in options prices at NYU Stern School of Business.



AUSTRALIA: Japanese sales of Australian dollar assets late last year hit an
all-time high, says Westpac head of fx strategy Rob Rennie. He cites data from a
number of sources and concludes almost A$8 bln of Australian assets were sold in
November and December alone by Japanese investors. That is an all-time record
and gives a clear sense of how aggressive this selling was, Rennie says.
According to him, in Q4 $22 bln was ploughed into Europe by Japanese investors
while $13 bln was put back into yen assets. Rennie cautions again that "Europe
has a long and rich of spoiling this (normalization) process through the rising
undercurrent of political nationalism", so it's not clear that Japanese selling
of A$ assets continues. "However, the pace of recent Japanese selling certainly
calls into question whether the A$ will continue to see 'safe haven' demand on a
long term basis. We remain of the view that crosses like AUD/EUR will continue
to fall over the medium term," he says.



EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY at $1.3396, after rate had been sold off to $1.33705
as market reacted to ECB Draghi comments mentioning recent euro strength. Early
trade in Asia consolidated Thursday's late moves between $1.3385/1.3400, dropped
to mark lows at $1.3383 before edging up to $1.3416, the move up aided by the
release of stronger than forecast Chinese trade data. Rate drifted off to
$1.3394 before settling around $1.3400 into Europe. Bids remain in place into
$1.3370, with further interest seen extending to $1.3350 with stops below.
Offers now seen placed from $1.3420 through to $1.3430. The fallout from Draghi
comments will continue to dictate play, possibly as euro crosses readjust. The
corrective pullback ahead of the weekend, which, along with adverse weather
conditions to hit the east coast of the US today, and China new year
celebrations next week, could act to subdue trade. German trade at 0700GMT, then
US trade at 1330GMT the standout data releases, with some focus on EU Budget
talks.

EURO-DOLLAR: Back below $1.3400 as early Europe press rate lower again. Rate
touches a pull back low at $1.3386, holding shy of a retest on earlier lows of
$1.3382. Rate currently trades around $1.3390. Bids remain in place into
$1.3370, with further demand seen dotted down to $1.3350. Tech traders already
making note of mid/late June lows at $1.3265/45.


CABLE: Closed in NY at $1.5712 after rate had seen a volatile day as BOE
Governor in wait Carney came across less dovish than market had positioned for.
Rate had spiked to $1.5768 on opening headlines before drifting lower, with the
afternoon comments from ECB Draghi mentioning current euro strength adding to
weight as cable tracked euro-dollar's sharp sell off. Cable traded to a low of
$1.5684 before recovering through the US afternoon into the close. This cable
buoyancy was seen as euro-sterling broke lower, the cross pressed to lows of
stg0.8516, having seen highs earlier in the day of stg0.86645 ahead of Carney
comments. This recovery in cable continued into Asia, the rate marking early
lows at $1.5706 before pushing on to $1.5738 ($1.5736 61.8% $1.5768-1.5684),
Rate opens Europe around $1.5728. Offers now seen from $1.5738 through to
$1.5750 ($1.5748 76.4%), a break to expose that $1.5768 high. Support $1.5700
ahead of $1.5685/80. Euro-sterling consolidated Thursday's pullback between
stg0.8516-33 in Asia, opening Europe at stg0.8520. Continued fall out from
Thursday's Draghi comments, along with any commentary out of the EU budget
negotiations, to provide drive.


YEN: Dollar-yen closed in NY Thursday at Y93.70 after recovering off pullback
lows of Y93.08. This recovery slightly extended to Y93.74 in early Asia before
momentum faltered, the rate then drifting off through the balance of the session
to Y93.20 as traders reported a paring of spec longs ahead of the weekend. This
move lower was also aided as euro-yen retained an underlying soft tone, recovery
off NY lows of Y124.50 capped by Y125.57 in Asia before rate slipped back to
Y124.88 into Europe. Second doji signal in two days does warn traders of a
possible trend change, but while rate holds above the Kijun and Tenkan lines at
Y92.20 and Y90.44 it keeps the recent underlying upside trend in place and may
just signal a partial corrective phase, especially into next week's China new
year celebrations. Ichimoku traders still have Y95.70 as next upside target.
Same technical traders seen euro-yen holding a range of Y124/128 in the near
term, though still mention upside target at Y128.70.

JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japan's benchmark stocks are lower Friday, weighed by the
stronger yen. The Nikkei 225 was lower by 203.91 points, or 1.8%, at 11,153.16.
Into the close, the broader-based TOPIX was lower by 11.62 points at 957.56.
Market breadth indicators saw 23 issue higher, 195 lower and 7 unchanged.
Preliminary volume stood at 2.9 bn shares.


GOLD: Spot gold prices are trading around unchanged levels Friday after
posting some marginal losses during the previous day. Spot gold ended
Thursday's session $6.05 lower at $1671.65/oz after prices, once again,
failed to break away from their current range. Trading in the precious
metal continues to remain distorted ahead of next week's Lunar New Year
holiday. Spot gold prices have remained tied to a narrow range so far
during Asian traded hours this morning, tentatively recovering from
earlier lows of $1668.05/oz after an initial intra-day high of
$1673.15/oz. Buy interest remains below the market at around $1664/oz,
as previously mentioned by MNI in yesterday's morning commodities
report, which managed to contain price after ECB's Draghi's comments
yesterday when gold turned back higher from lows of $1663.40/oz. Heavier
resistance is anticipated above the market around $1692/oz, with larger
offers continuing to show working between $1690/oz and $1692/oz. Spot
gold now trades at $1672/oz, up $0.35 on the session.


OIL: March NYMEX WTI prices are trading in positive territory Friday,
repairing some of the losses posted during the previous day. NYMEX March
light sweet crude oil futures settled down 79 cents at $95.83 per
barrel, after trading in a $95.54 to $97.21 range. So far in 2013, the
front contract has traded in a $91.52 (Jan. 4) to $98.24 (Jan. 30)
range. The AAA's Daily Fuel gauge put the cost of regular unleaded
gasoline at $3.555 per gallon Thursday, compared to $3.423 a week ago
and $3.3000 a month ago. WTI prices have advanced during this morning's
Asian session, underpinned by some stronger than expected Chinese trade
data, with the March contract printing a session high of $96.19 a few
moments ago from an initial intra-day low of $95.70 a barrel. March WTI
futures remain near the upper end of their range, currently trading
$96.10 a barrel, up 27 cents on the session.


NATURAL GAS: NYMEX March natural gas prices are trading lower Friday,
extending their sharp losses posted during the previous day. March
natural gas futures ended Thursday's session down 13.3 cents, or 3.9%,
at $3.285 per million British thermal units (mln Btu) after sinking to
lows of $3.282 per mln Btu late on in the session. Prices became subject
to selling pressure after a report from the US Energy Information
Administration (EIA) showed that total domestic gas inventories fell
last week by 118bln cubic feet (c/f) to 2.684 trillion c/f, a much
smaller drop than market participants were expecting. March natural gas
futures have continued to decline during this morning's Asian session,
slipping from highs of $3.299 per mln Btu to intra-day lows of $3.271
and the market now trades at $3.273 per mln Btu, down from last night's
close of $3.285 per mln Btu.


OPTIONS: FX: Option expiries for today's 1000ET cut,
* Euro-dollar; $1.3300, $1.3350, $1.3375, $1.3400, $1.3505, $1.3600, $1.3650,
$1.3750
* Dollar-yen; Y93.00, Y93.50, Y93.60
* Cable; $1.5650, $1.5700, $1.5720, $1.5750, $1.5800
* Euro-sterling; stg0.8630, stg0.8650
* Dollar-Swiss; Chf0.9100
* Aussie; $1.0350, $1.0435
* Aussie-yen; Y96.50
* Dollar-Canada; C$1.0025


EUROZONE ISSUANCE: Looking ahead into next week, sovereign bond issuance in the
eurozone is so far scheduled from Germany, Italy and the Netherlands and is
expected to ease back to around E13.5bln vs E17.69bln sold this week. The
Netherlands re-opens its 5-year benchmark 1.25% Jan 2018 DSL issue on Tuesday
for between E2.0bln-E3.0bln indicative size. On Wednesday, Germany sells a new
2-year benchmark Mar 2015 Schatz issue for up E5.0bln. Also Wednesday, Italy
conducts its regular mid-month BTP auctions -- details are due to be announced
later today, with most expecting tap of its 3-year benchmark 2.75% Dec 2015 BTP
and also recently launched syndicated 15-year benchmark 4.50% Jan 2026 BTP for
an up to E5.5bln. In terms of reinvestment flows, there are no redemptions due
next week with moderate coupon payments from Portugal E0.2bln. For full details
of forthcoming issues, please see Eurozone bond auction calendar & MNI Eurozone
Net Cash Flow Matrix.


EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- Feb 07/08 European Leaders summit in Brussels
- Feb 08 Greek T-bill redemption for E1.975bln
- Feb 08 ECB announces 3-year LTRO payback total amount
- Feb 11 Eurogroup meeting
- Feb 12 ECOFIN meeting
- Feb 12 ECB Draghi at a closed Spanish Parliament meeting from 1300GMT to
1430GMT, but also a presser should follow directly
- Feb 12 Italy sells 12-month T-bill for E8.5bln
- Feb 12 Spain sells 6-/12-month T-bills
- Feb 12 Greece sells new 13-week T-bills for up to E1.0bln
- Feb 13 European Commission publishes forecasts
- Feb 13 Italy BTP auctions
- Feb 14 Eurozone Q4 advanced GDP
- Feb 14 Italy T-bill redemption for E9.153bln
- Feb 14 ECB start of reserve maintenance period

US: Timeline of key events in the US for the next several days:
- Feb 08 Fed Outright TIPS Purch 04/15/2017-02/15/2042 $1-$1.5bn
- Feb 08 Fed Kocherlakota (non-voter) at NYU Stern School of Business at 1545ET
- Feb 10 Chinese Lunar New Year (Asia hols likely to affect US market activity)
- Feb 11 Fed Outright Tsy Coupon Purch 2/15/2036-11/15/2042 $1.25-$1.75bn
- Feb 11 UST announces 4 week at 1100ET
- Feb 11 UST auctions 3/6m bills at 1130ET
- Feb 12 CBO Dir Elmendorf at Senate Budget Committee hearing at 1030ET
- Feb 12 Fed Outright Tsy Coupon Purch 02/15/2020-11/15/2022 $2.75-$3.50bn
- Feb 12 UST auctions 4 week at 1130ET
- Feb 12 UST auctions $32BN 3-yr in Feb refunding 1300ET
- Feb 12 Fed George (voter) at U of Nebraska-Omaha Business School at 1130ET
- Feb 12 Treasury Statement at 1400ET
- Feb 12 Fed Lacker (non-voter) in Lancaster, PA at 1930ET
- Feb 12 Fed Plosser (non-voter) at Stanford Inst (SIEPR) at 1930ET
- Feb 12 Pres Obama gives State of Union at 2100ET

[adk]

jezeli edek przebije wczorajsze minima, opadnie do poziomu 3305. kabel - powtorka z rozrywki, ostatni piatek?

[rafmax]

ja w tej konsolce ponowiłem s z SL 1,3425
Uwazam ze korekta zakonczy sie gdzies na 1,3280

[pr7emo]

dolar się schładza

[davor5]

edek rozjechał się z ejkiem

[sureshot]

co sie dzieje w ogole z jenem?

[pkubiu]

to z ejkiem pakować elki teraz czy czekać na 122.80

[rafmax]

to z ejkiem pakować elki teraz czy czekać na 122.80

jak dotrze do 121 to sie skusze

[richard.cali]

zaczyna się UP na edku...

[davor5]

w cnbc mówili że ktoś powiedział z rządu Japonii że za bardzo się osłabił jen względem dolara stąd taka jazda na jenie