DayTrading: Wtorek 18.12.2012

[niemiaszek]

Hello

EU: The calendar is starting to slow as the festive season approaches, but
there are still some data releases and central bank appearances planned.
At 0815GMT, ECB Governing Council member Ignazio Visco addresses a
conference in memory of Albert Ando, in Rome. At 0830GMT, the Riksbank
is to publish its latest monetary policy update.

IRELAND: Ireland takes over the Presidency of the EU on Jan 1, but the country's
PM Enda Kenny will not go quiet on the need for an improved deal on its Troika
Bank loans, the FT reports.



UK: UK data is expected at 0930GMT, with the release of the November consumer
and producer inflation numbers. CPI has of course misbehaved for policymakers in
recent months, persistently defying the downward path set for it by Bank of
England forecasters. The narrative here continues to be one of energy and
commodity prices propped up by strong demand from the BRICs despite economic
weakness in the industrialised OECD countries. UK CPI is seen at +2.7% y/y.

UK PRESS: The UK Conservative Party, the senior coalition member, are losing
support to UKIP, the Times reports, as the UK electorate becomes increasingly
disillusioned with Europe. The latest Populus poll for the paper shows that Tory
support has slipped to 29%, down 6% in two months to stand at their lowest
support level since David Cameron took over as leader in 2005.

UK PRESS: The Telegraph says Swiss industry giant UBS will say up to 30 bankers
were involved in the alleged LIBOR rigging when it outlines a settlement with
regulators on Wednesday.


US index futures are trading higher across the board in Asian trade
Tuesday, again boosted by hopes of a pre-Christmas deal on the "fiscal
cliff." The Mar S&P mini was last higher by 5.75 points at 1438.25,
while the Nasdaq Mar mini was last 12.0 points higher at 2678.5.



EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY Monday at $1.3162 after trade through this session
was contained within a relatively tight range of $1.3150/79. Trade through the
overnight session was also confined to a tight range, dealing restricted to
$1.3156/78, opening into Europe around $1.3171. Asian traders have noted offers
in place ahead of $1.3200, with an Asian sovereign said to be a seller here and
drawing front run sell interest ahead. Barrier interest is also said to remain
in place at the figure (Monday pre open trade at $1.3205 disregarded), with
stops building above $1.3205. Bids remain in place between $1.3150/40, sovereign
and semi official bids seen in this area Monday, and with some dollar
intervention buying from Asian sovereigns noted overnight and could prompt some
recycling euro-dollar purchases through Europe. Spain bill auctions at 0930GMT
to provide interest in an otherwise data light day. Fiscal cliff negotiations
taking prominence for direction.


CABLE: Closed in NY at $1.6202 after rate had seen extended recovery highs of
$1.6217 during Monday trade, pulling back to $1.6193 before recovering into the
close. Rate dipped to $1.6195 in opening Asian trade before attracting demand
which lifted it to an initial high of $1.6213. A dip to $1.6203 attracted
another round of demand and lifted rate on to $1.6218, surpassing Monday's high
but failed to pressure reported offers at $1.6220 and the stops above. Rate
holds firm into early Europe with stops seen as a tempting target. A break here
to expose next offers at $1.6240/50, with talk of barrier interest at the
$1.6250 level. Support remains at $1.6195/90, a break to open a deeper move
toward $1.6175/70. UK PPI and CPI data due for release at 0930GMT, along with NS
house prices, and will provide the domestic interest. US fiscal cliff
negotiations seen as key for general direction.


YEN: Following on from Monday's volatile action, as markets reacted to the
weekend LDP/NKP election win, dollar-yen and euro-yen were basically sidelined
through Asian trade Tuesday. Trade in dollar-yen pivoted Y84.00 within
Y83.83-Y84.08, opening Europe around Y84.02. Euro-yen was confined to a range of
Y110.35-75, opening European trading around Y110.65. Markets now on wait and see
as the BOJ policy board meeting moves into focus Dec20.

JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japan's benchmark stock indices ended Tuesday's session
higher, although shy of the best levels, boosted by the LDP's election win. The
Nikkei 225 was higher by 94.13 points, or 0.96%, at 9923.01. Just ahead of the
close, the broader-based TOPIX was higher by 9.52 points at 817.36. Preliminary
volume in the Nikkei stocks totalled 2.291 Bn shares, with 179 issues higher, 36
lower and 10 unchanged.

JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Nikkei 225 Index ended up 0.96% at 9923.01.


AUSSIE: Traders report demand in place below $1.0525, with exporter interest
sitting at $1.0500. Option related offers noted into $1.0600, with reports of
macro sell interest placed around $1.0625. Traders in Asia noted talk of
possible decent Aussie demand interest to be seen into month end.


GOLD: Spot gold prices are trading in positive territory Tuesday
extending their marginal gains posted the previous trading day. Spot
gold ended Monday's session $2.05 higher at $1698.15/oz with prices
confined to fairly tight ranges for much of the day, as interest in the
precious metal evaporates towards year-end. Gold prices have been edging
their way higher for much of this morning's Asian session, advancing
from lows of $1695.75/oz to an intra-day high of $1703.35/oz,
underpinned by hopes that US lawmakers may inch towards a pre-Christmas
deal on the US deficit. Gold remains modestly higher as risk sentiment
shows some improvement ahead of the European cash equity opening, with
European bourses all expected to come in modestly higher on the opening
bell. Spot gold now trades at $1702.10/oz, up $3.95 on the session.


OIL: January NYMEX WTI futures are trading higher Tuesday extending
their gains from the previous trading day. January WTI futures ended
Monday's session 47 cents higher at $87.20 a barrel, underpinned by
hopes of increased demand from China. Prices were subject to a $86.48 to
$87.71 range. This morning, January WTI futures have extended their
gains, buoyed by hopes for a pre-Christmas deal on the US deficit,
advancing from an intra-day low of $87.33 to highs of $87.90. In terms
of supply, weekly oil inventory data due this week by the American
Petroleum Institute (API) and the US Energy Information Administration
(EIA) are expected to show a drawdown in US commercial crude oil stocks
of 2.3 mln barrels for the week ended December 14, Platts says citing
its survey of analysts. The API report is due late Tuesday while the EIA
data are due Wednesday. At 372.6 million barrels, for the week ended
December 7, US crude oil inventories were viewed as amply supplied,
sitting 13.75% above the five-year average of EIA data for the period.
January WTI futures now trade at $87.76 a barrel, up 56 cents.


NATURAL GAS: NYMEX January natural gas prices are trading marginally
lower Tuesday after posting their first gains in eight sessions the
previous trading day. January natural gas futures ended Monday's session
up 4.4 cents, or 1.3%, at $3.358 per million British thermal units (mln
Btu), after trading in a $3.277 to $3.395 range. Prices became
underpinned by some technical buying and colder Northeast and Midwest
weather forecasts for later this week and next week that should increase
some heating demand. January natural gas prices initially slipped from
highs of $3.369 during Asian trade this morning to hold at an intra-day
low of $3.336 and now trade at $3.349, marginally lower from last
night's close of $3.358 per mln Btu.


OPTIONS: Option expiries for today's 1000EST cut,
* Euro-dollar; $1.3200, $1.3150, $1.3100, $1.3000(large)
* Dollar-yen; Y83.00, Y83.50, Y83.75, Y84.00
* Cable; $1.6200, $1.6000
* Euro-sterling; stg0.8180
* Dollar-Swiss; Chf0.9265
* Aussie; $1.0500, $1.0550


EUROZONE ISSUANCE: There is no sovereign bond supply in the eurozone scheduled
Tuesday, with focus on issuance calendar's for 2013. Germany is likely to
publish its 2013 calendar sometime this week with Finland Treasury due to
release its funding outlook on Dec 21. Italy is the only country left in the
eurozone to conclude its 2012 issuance, with zero coupon CTZ bond due to be sold
on Dec 27 and month-end BTP auction due on Dec 28. For full details of
forthcoming issues, please see Eurozone bond auction calendar & MNI Eurozone Net
Cash Flow Matrix.

EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- Dec 18 Spain sells 3-/6-month T-bills for up to E3.5bln
- Dec 18 Eurogroup Juncker interviewed on German tv station Phoenix
- Dec 18 Greek bond buyback settlement date
- Dec 19 Germany Dec IFO business survey - Dec 20 ESRB meeting
- Dec 20 Italy T-bill redemption for E3.5bln
- Dec 20 German FinMin releases monthy fiscal and economic report
- Dec 21 Greece T-bill redemption for E1.3bln
- Dec 21 Portugal T-bill redemption for E2.132bln
- Dec 27 Italy T-bill redemption for E3.0bln
- Dec 27 Italy T-bill/CTZ auction
- Dec 28 Italy BTP/CCTeu auctions
- Dec 31 Italy T-till redemption E9.0bln, CTZ bond redemption E11.833bln
- Jan 1 Ireland takes over 6-month Presidency of the Council of EU
- Jan 4 Eurozone flash HICP
- Jan 10 ECB meeting, Draghi press conference

[jurekszczurek]

im dłużej funkcjonuje na foreksie tym tego potrzebuje

ja od sierpnia (pierwszy kontakt z fx) i widzę że już powoli zaczynam się mniej przejmować ew. stratą
jak traktuję to na luzie zaczynam zarabiać

[tomeKrk]

ja od sierpnia (pierwszy kontakt z fx) i widzę że już powoli zaczynam się mniej przejmować ew. stratą
jak traktuję to na luzie zaczynam zarabiać

bingo! zgadzam się w całej rozciągłości

[molmomas]

z uwagi na to, i idą święta, może teraz być mała korekta, do 1.31150 a potem, po uklepaniu uderzenie w kierunku 1.322-4 (na window dressing przed końcem roku, a w nowym roku zjazd) gdyż tam najbliższy opór przebiegać winien.
Ma ktoś z was jakieś przemyślenia co do aktualnej sytuacji na edku?

[Adam]

im dłużej funkcjonuje na foreksie tym tego potrzebuje

ja od sierpnia (pierwszy kontakt z fx) i widzę że już powoli zaczynam się mniej przejmować ew. stratą
jak traktuję to na luzie zaczynam zarabiać

Zobaczymy co powiesz po paru latach jak wyzerujesz parę razy czterocyfrowe depo Na razie proponuje dobry kurs podstaw i trening psychiki na realu z rygorystycznym przestrzeganiem money menegment. 70% szans na sukces na forex to psychologia i MM Techniki każdy średnio inteligentny .... może się nauczyć.

[bombastik]

Korzysta ktoś z was z aliorowskiego traidera ?
Mam taki problem że pisze mi zmiana o 1.80% przy Eur/usd czy nawet 7% przy aud/jyp a z wykresu to nie wynika.
Wie ktoś o co może chodzić ?

[Adam]

Korzysta ktoś z was z aliorowskiego traidera ?
Mam taki problem że pisze mi zmiana o 1.80% przy Eur/usd czy nawet 7% przy aud/jyp a z wykresu to nie wynika.
Wie ktoś o co może chodzić ?

Gdzie Ci to pisze Trader o tych procentach?

[pkubiu]

dogadali sie czy jakie sa postępy w sprawie klifu kto wie ?

[Kundziu]

dogadali sie czy jakie sa postępy w sprawie klifu kto wie ?

http://www.macronext.pl/pl/aktualnosci/ ... ma-boehner
To z wczoraj odnośnie klifu.

[snikers_m]

Cześć Wam, bronią wsparcia może wybiją