Historia X czyli dziennik takiego sobie tradera
Zostawiłem zlecenia oczekujące w kluczowych miejscach dla rynku na 3 parach i wywaliło mnie wszędzie na SL. Dzień dzisiejszy zaczynam z -50pkt - w ostatnim czasie mam wrażenie że lepiej grać na naruszenie danego poziomu i powrót aniżeli kontynuację ruchu - znacznie lepiej bym na tym chyba wychodził.
fx-forum
Long GBPUSD
*UPDATE*
I zaliczony SL - zostawiam zlecenie oczekujące tuż powyżej lokalnego szczytu.
*UPDATE*
I zaliczony SL - zostawiam zlecenie oczekujące tuż powyżej lokalnego szczytu.
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Ostatnio zmieniony 07 gru 2010, 08:29 przez MkubuxK, łącznie zmieniany 1 raz.
fx-forum
Nie czuję rynku dzisiaj w ogóle. Każdy wybity nowy poziom jest za chwilę negowany, świece wzrostowe na wyższych interwałach niby są ale sposób w jaki są wybijane jest jak dla mnie totalnie nieprzewidywalny - rynek kompletnie przestał chodzić tak jak to lubię - typowo schodkowy trend wzrostowy i koszenie SL od czasu do czasu - a mi zamyka pozycje za pozycją - chciałbym wreszcie ustawić się na rynku odpowiednio i złapać swoje 2 grosze.
Wywaliło mnie natomiast na parze GBPUSD na -10pkt po czym para zrobiła rajd na 60pkt w moim kierunku - patrz screen z tej pary.
Wywaliło mnie natomiast na parze GBPUSD na -10pkt po czym para zrobiła rajd na 60pkt w moim kierunku - patrz screen z tej pary.
fx-forum
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inwestor86
- Pasjonat
- Posty: 1594
- Rejestracja: 17 lis 2008, 11:53
Thoughts from the Traders
On Friday we witnessed significantly worse than expected Non Farm Payrolls data from the US. The headline figure was expected at around the 140k mark and in fact came in at just 39k. This immediately triggered a sell-off in equities and buying in bonds. However, the market’s initial drive quickly wore off with equities recovering their losses to remain bullish. This in turn led to bonds giving-back the majority of their gains. This behaviour underlines the importance of being aware of the market’s big picture/macroeconomic back drop in order to safeguard against getting caught on the wrong side of big price movements. The equity markets interpreted Thursday’s ECB rate decision in a bullish manner and strength thus moved from the bond market to “risk” trades. This is typical of the market at the moment as the Eurozone peripheral sovereign debt issue is the driving factor. Therefore, we predict that Thursday’s sentiment, which was evident on Friday, will be carried forward into trading in December. This leaves the equity market with a feeling of bullishness after the opening week of December and thus we expect market uncertainty to be met with smart money buying of any dips.
It is essential for every trader to be able to spot correlations between different markets as they are useful indicators of future price movement. Correlations come and go, but at present the equity markets are closely linked to the USD. This correlation was evident on Friday as the poor NFP figure coincided with a selloff in the USD due to both the uncertainty around the QE programme and concerns that the poor NFP figure, combined with other disappointing US data, could lead to another round of QE occurring sooner than markets expect. If you were aware of this market sentiment during the equity sell-off after the NFP release, you should have been well prepared for a market recovery and for the bulls to reappear once the initial, bearish momentum wore off. The USD is considered a “flight to quality” asset. Therefore, when weakness appears here, money tends to flow to riskier assets such as equities and commodities, often until stability returns to the USD.
On Thursday we witnessed the long awaited ECB rate announcement followed by President Trichet’s discussion of his future plans for the Eurozone. The peripheral debt situation in the Eurozone has caught the attention of the markets recently with speculation rife concerning the future of the Euro currency itself. The market reacted positively to Trichet’s revelation that the ECB would extend liquidity provision and that they are willing to step into the market, if required, to reduce yields on peripheral Eurozone debt and aggressively back member states. After long periods of uncertainty in the equity markets, this event brought the stability the market was looking for and a strong bullish sentiment. Yield spreads between those countries most affected by the sovereign debt crisis (Spain, Ireland and Portugal) and Germany narrowed as peripheral yields fell to weekly lows. The question now is what will the next chapter be in the ongoing Eurozone saga? Will the peripheral sovereign debt spreads and yields continue to fall? Will the Euro strengthen once more against the dollar back to a stable position? Or, will the troubles surrounding the peripheral sovereign debt come back into the limelight causing a renewed sell-off in equities and continued Euro weakness? Traders should be well aware of the answers to all these questions as it is these answers which will provide the platform on which to trade effectively.
A trader should also be well aware of seasonal factors when trading. Markets in December often have a bullish sentiment and uncertainty often evaporates until January when both uncertainty and volatility tends to return. The Bund has been bearish in December for the last 3 years.
This week is important in terms of gauging market sentiment for the rest of the month. Bears will be looking to put fear into the markets with regards to the underlying problems in the Eurozone in an effort to halt the current bullish drive. In contrast, bulls will remain confident the uncertainty surrounding the Eurozone has calmed and they will look for a gradual climb to take back some of the losses from the past month.
On Friday we witnessed significantly worse than expected Non Farm Payrolls data from the US. The headline figure was expected at around the 140k mark and in fact came in at just 39k. This immediately triggered a sell-off in equities and buying in bonds. However, the market’s initial drive quickly wore off with equities recovering their losses to remain bullish. This in turn led to bonds giving-back the majority of their gains. This behaviour underlines the importance of being aware of the market’s big picture/macroeconomic back drop in order to safeguard against getting caught on the wrong side of big price movements. The equity markets interpreted Thursday’s ECB rate decision in a bullish manner and strength thus moved from the bond market to “risk” trades. This is typical of the market at the moment as the Eurozone peripheral sovereign debt issue is the driving factor. Therefore, we predict that Thursday’s sentiment, which was evident on Friday, will be carried forward into trading in December. This leaves the equity market with a feeling of bullishness after the opening week of December and thus we expect market uncertainty to be met with smart money buying of any dips.
It is essential for every trader to be able to spot correlations between different markets as they are useful indicators of future price movement. Correlations come and go, but at present the equity markets are closely linked to the USD. This correlation was evident on Friday as the poor NFP figure coincided with a selloff in the USD due to both the uncertainty around the QE programme and concerns that the poor NFP figure, combined with other disappointing US data, could lead to another round of QE occurring sooner than markets expect. If you were aware of this market sentiment during the equity sell-off after the NFP release, you should have been well prepared for a market recovery and for the bulls to reappear once the initial, bearish momentum wore off. The USD is considered a “flight to quality” asset. Therefore, when weakness appears here, money tends to flow to riskier assets such as equities and commodities, often until stability returns to the USD.
On Thursday we witnessed the long awaited ECB rate announcement followed by President Trichet’s discussion of his future plans for the Eurozone. The peripheral debt situation in the Eurozone has caught the attention of the markets recently with speculation rife concerning the future of the Euro currency itself. The market reacted positively to Trichet’s revelation that the ECB would extend liquidity provision and that they are willing to step into the market, if required, to reduce yields on peripheral Eurozone debt and aggressively back member states. After long periods of uncertainty in the equity markets, this event brought the stability the market was looking for and a strong bullish sentiment. Yield spreads between those countries most affected by the sovereign debt crisis (Spain, Ireland and Portugal) and Germany narrowed as peripheral yields fell to weekly lows. The question now is what will the next chapter be in the ongoing Eurozone saga? Will the peripheral sovereign debt spreads and yields continue to fall? Will the Euro strengthen once more against the dollar back to a stable position? Or, will the troubles surrounding the peripheral sovereign debt come back into the limelight causing a renewed sell-off in equities and continued Euro weakness? Traders should be well aware of the answers to all these questions as it is these answers which will provide the platform on which to trade effectively.
A trader should also be well aware of seasonal factors when trading. Markets in December often have a bullish sentiment and uncertainty often evaporates until January when both uncertainty and volatility tends to return. The Bund has been bearish in December for the last 3 years.
This week is important in terms of gauging market sentiment for the rest of the month. Bears will be looking to put fear into the markets with regards to the underlying problems in the Eurozone in an effort to halt the current bullish drive. In contrast, bulls will remain confident the uncertainty surrounding the Eurozone has calmed and they will look for a gradual climb to take back some of the losses from the past month.
fx-forum
Zaczęło coś się dziać ( zjazd 50pkt ) - zacząłem zarabiać - przyznam że kompletnie nie radzę sobie w takich bezruchu - jak głupi otwieram i zamykam pozycję jakby coś się miało zmienić gdy cena ruszy się +- 15pkt. Muszę chyba zacząć wchodzić w takie dni jak ten na wyższe interwały i w ogóle nie patrzeć na nic nieznaczące fluktuacje.
W tej chwili dałem BUY po 1.3348.
W tej chwili dałem BUY po 1.3348.
fx-forum
Zaczęło spadać a ja zakotwiczyłem się że bez decyzji Irlandii nie spadnie - no nic - po raz kolejny rynek nauczył mnie czegoś nowego - poszerzyłem Stopa w nocy i strata jest potworna.
W tej chwili ostatni moment na BUY - wylądowaliśmy na dziennej zmienności - możliwy ruch 100,200 pkt Up.
Trend mocno spadkowy, także nie zdziwiłbym się jakby zaraz nastąpiła jakaś rakieta w dół. Dałem BUY i podciągam Stopa z równoczesnym odwróceniem pozycji.
W tej chwili ostatni moment na BUY - wylądowaliśmy na dziennej zmienności - możliwy ruch 100,200 pkt Up.
Trend mocno spadkowy, także nie zdziwiłbym się jakby zaraz nastąpiła jakaś rakieta w dół. Dałem BUY i podciągam Stopa z równoczesnym odwróceniem pozycji.
fx-forum