Teraz udziela się gdzie indziej i jakimś cudem jeden z moich broków mi to podsyła.
Może to nie są jakieś wyjątkowo błyskotliwe raporty, ale facet jednak zna się trochę na rzeczy, a poza tym on naprawdę to handluję. Mam na myśli FX, a nie sam raport - choć oczywiście tym też handluje ;-)
Trzeba wziąć poprawkę na czas: te raporty pojawiają się przed otwarciem Nikkei i często ma on na myśli nadchodzącą sesję azjatycką, a nie cały dzień. Ale są i dłuższe przemyślenia.
Dzisiaj rzucił nieco światła na wczorajsze zamieszanie i ogólne nastroje:
EDIT: a to Peter Jackson, jego kolega, teraz fxbriefs:AUD/USD session preview Friday June 7th
There was some quite unbelievable volatility at times yesterday and the amounts flowing through the market were simply massive. Asset managers are trying to exit long-term structural interest rate plays and macro funds are trying to book profits on long-term Yen short positions. All of this is adding up to mayhem at times.
It’s NFP Friday, usually a volatile day anyway, so we should prepare for some extra fun and games, with the focus remaining on USD/JPY in particular (which was over 3% lower on the day at times yesterday).
TECHNICALS: The short-term AUD/USD downtrend remains in control and yesterday’s break below .9500 suggests that there is more downside to come. Longer-term support at .9390 is still a major obstacle for the bears and I wouldn’t be surprised to see further volatility inside of a .9400/.9750 range (see chart).
CROSSES: AUD/JPY made some really big moves yesterday and briefly broke below important chart support at 92.90. The big flows remain AUD negative so selling rallies in this pair is preferred. EUR/AUD is consolidating above 1.3800 and I think it’s too dangerous to try and pick a top in this pair. Even if the up-trend does stall, we are more likely to see a period of consolidation rather than a sharp retracement, given current flow trends.
ORDERS & FLOWS: Asset managers have been dumping AUD/JPY indiscriminately, which is typical of a panicked market. Big AUD selling has also been reported against the EUR with one local Australian bank reportedly working through some AUD20 billion in sales against the single currency.
INTRADAY CONCLUSION: The AUD has fallen a long way on some of the crosses but the volumes are still very large and mainly AUD negative. I prefer pick a wide range in AUD/USD and play that with a mild bearish bias.
TRADE OF THE DAY: I think that USD/JPY still looks extremely dangerous and we could see more downside cleanouts. I favour selling intraday rallies but keep positions smaller than usual and stops wider, given the volatility.
Good luck out there and TGIF.
Przydałby się nieco pełniejszy orderbook...AUD/USD still under the hammer
Peter Jackson | Jun. 7, 2013 05:55 GMT | Major Currencies
Peter Jackson
And likely to remain so unless the EUR/AUD starts to turn. The cross hit highs of 1.3995 in Asia, but has since backed off currently around 1.3940.
Plenty or reports abound of the lack of liquidity, but the move also compounded by heavy sales in AUD/.JPY again, which cut through support at the 200 day MA at 91.64 to lows of 90.76 before staging a strong recovery to 92.30 as the Nikkei pops back up through 13,000 and the USD/JPY rallies to 97.00.
All a bit of a mess out there ahead of the NFP this afternoon, but the AUD/USDd is getting little in the way of respite despite the bounces elsewhere and looks set to test recent lows again.
Bids sit down in the 0.9465/75 zone (Asian low 0.9465) ahead of yesterday’s lows of 0.9435. There’s also barrier talk at 0.9400, with the tech supp at 0.9388 (Oct 2011 lows) below there. On the topside resistance starts in the 0.9550/60 area and again at 0.9590/10 with possible buy stops through the tenkan line at 0.9614> A break up through 0.9700/10 is now looking the best chance to stall the current meltdown (0.9707 is the 76.4% of the recent 97.92-94.35 fall), but really doesn’t look likely at the moment., but heck it’s Friday and anything goes….
AUD sits around 0.9506
