Pogaduchy przy porannej kawie

[niemiaszek]

EURO-DOLLAR VIEW: Jose Wynne of Barclays Capital says "the latest
round of global data releases shows that European activity is the main
drag on the global economy at present." Week numbers in the eurozone
will likely prompt a policy response from the ECB. Barclays looks for a
25bp cut in the repo rate, another LTRO and a restart of the dormant
bond buying program for the peripherals (after Germany's Constitutional
Court approves the ESM treaty). While ECB measures should be "positive"
for eurozone activity, These steps will probably weigh on the euro,
"particularly as the Fed is unlikely to launch another round of
purchases," Wynne says. Barclays looks for the euro to head toward $1.15
in coming months, "with further downside risks," and he warns that this
view is "far from priced."

[Stforex]

Barclay'a poniosła chyba fantazja . Zresztą jutro się wiele wyjaśni.

Projekcje GDP na jutro rano.
Dobrej nocy wszystkim.

PS. Niemiecka produkcja przemysłowa jest chyba nieaktualna. Ostatnio mieli bodaj -0,5%.

[Stforex]

Dzień dobry!
Melduję się z obowiązkową kawą

MNI EURO-DOLLAR: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
$1.2400 Strong offers $
$1.2380/85 Strong offers,
stops $1.2375
$1.2348 Intraday high Asia
$1.2330 Int.Day high Europe
$1.2343 ***Current mkt rate 0233GMT Tuesday
$1.2325/26 NY low/Intraday low Asia
$1.2300 Medium demand on approach/Option expiry (large)
$1.2280/70 Area of Europe pullback lows
$1.2260 Medium demand on approach/Stops on break
$1.2240 Strong demand ahead
/$1.2241 Friday low/Stops
$1.2219 React low post NFP Friday

FRANCE DATA: prel 2Q sa GDP flat q/q, +0.3% y/y
-- Above most forecasts; MNI analysts survey median -0.1% q/q
-- Private consumption -0.2% q/q after 1Q +0.2%
-- Fixed-cap investment +0.6% q/q after 1Q -0.8% (-0.7%)
-- Domestic demand ex-stocks adds 0.1 pt after no contribution in 1Q
-- Foreign trade cuts 0.5 pt; exports +0.2% q/q, imports +1.8% q/q
-- Inventory changes add 0.3 pt

Lepsze, ale za mało żeby wywrzeć wrażenie na rynku. Pewnie zostanie zdyskontowane wraz z niemieckim i europejskim GDP.

[Stforex]

GERMANY DATA: 2q real prel. GDP sa +0.3% q/q, wda +1.0% y/y
-- Germany 2q real GDP sa q/q above all fcasts, MNI median fcast +0.1%
-- Germany 2q non-seasonally adjusted GDP +0.5% y/y
-- Germany 1q GDP sa unrev +0.5% q/q; wda unrev +1.2% y/y

[Stforex]

EUROZONE ISSUANCE: Greece and Belgium both come to the T-bill market on Tuesday.

Greece is planning to issue E3.125bln of a new 13-week T-bill maturing Nov 16 and

Belgium plans to re-open a 3-month T-bill maturing Oct 18, and issue a new 12-month T-bill maturing Jul 18, 2013 for an indicative amount of E2.0-E3.0bln.

Yesterday Italy sold E8.0bln in 12-month BOTs at average yield 2.767% and covered 1.69 times, and

Germany sold E3.77bln in 6-month Bubills at average yield -0.0499% and covered 1.3 times.

Then on Monday afternoon France sold a combined total E7.187bln in 3-/6-/12-month T-bills. The Tresor sold E3.996bln 3-month BTF at average yield -0.016% and covered 3.08 times, E1.693bln 6-month BTF at average yield -0.010% and covered 5.35 times, and E1.498bln 12-month BTF at average yield 0.000% and covered 3.97 times

Dziwne. U Niemców małe covery u Francuzów duże. Czyżby popyt wewnętrzny we Francji? To by znaczyło, że kapitał z zewnątrz czeka.

EDIT:

FX: Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut,
* Euro-dollar; $1.2250, $1.2260, $1.2335, $1.2370, $1.2400
* Dollar-yen; Y78.45, Y78.25
* Euro-sterling; stg0.7800
* Aussie; $1.0550, $1.0600
* Kiwi; $0.8200

[259]

GERMANY DATA: 2q real prel. GDP sa +0.3% q/q, wda +1.0% y/y
-- Germany 2q real GDP sa q/q above all fcasts, MNI median fcast +0.1%
-- Germany 2q non-seasonally adjusted GDP +0.5% y/y
-- Germany 1q GDP sa unrev +0.5% q/q; wda unrev +1.2% y/y

Morgen, no to na razie jesteśmy uratowani

[259]

Jakby ktoś nie zauważył, to mamy mocne przegrupowanie na Euro - zwijanie shortów przez fundusze hedgingowe i innych macro, a szczególnie na EURAUD który był świetna okazją do zarobienia podwójnie przez ostatnich kilkanaście tygodni.
Teraz najwyraźniej jest to zamykane co z jednej strony ciągnie Euro w górę, a z drugiej A$ w dół. Co naturalnie odbija na innych krosach tych walut.
No i z tego wynika pewien wniosek - kto wie jaki?

[Stforex]

Dzisiaj widzę kupowanie Aussie przez UKclearer. Ciekawa sprawa.

Update opcji.

Cable; $1.5700, $1.5600 *

[expedient warzywniaka]

Dzisiaj widzę kupowanie Aussie przez UKclearer. Ciekawa sprawa.

Update opcji.

Cable; $1.5700, $1.5600 *

a co to UKclearer

[Esco]

Jeden z czterech największych banków w UK.