Nic nie wpadlo konkretnego, jakbym się ścigał z własnym cieniem .Pogaduchy przy porannej kawie
-
_/_/Dariusz_/_/
- Pasjonat
- Posty: 1238
- Rejestracja: 02 sty 2012, 22:04
-
_/_/Dariusz_/_/
- Pasjonat
- Posty: 1238
- Rejestracja: 02 sty 2012, 22:04
-
niemiaszek
- Przyjaciel Forum
- Posty: 5097
- Rejestracja: 08 lis 2010, 15:02
8 August 2012 7:41
Euro-dollar closed in NY at $1.2397 after rate had extended its recovery
off European morning lows of $1.2376 to $1.2443, falling just short of
Monday's highs at $1.2444, with protection of the much reported barrier
at $1.2450 countering. The corrective pullback extended into early Asia,
tripping stops below $1.2390 before meeting support at $1.2377. Rate
recovered, making a brief show above $1.2400 ($1.2403 high), but
reported sell interest placed above the figure countered the move which
saw it squeeze back to $1.2386 ahead of the European open. Another quiet
session in Asia with rate remaining rangebound awaiting developments in
the Spain and Italy debt support plan for direction. Bids reported into
$1.2370, with Eastern bloc demand interest also noted below this level.
Further demand noted between $1.2360/50 ahead of recent lows at $1.2342
(Aug 6). Resistance seen above $1.2400, with further interest noted into
$1.2420. A break here to open a move toward stronger resistance area
between $1.2440/50. Barrier interest remains at $1.2450. Stronger offers
begin from $1.2485 through to $1.2500.
Dollar-yen closed in NY Tuesday at Y78.60, off Y78.73 highs driven by
real money demand. Dollar-yen ground higher on the Asian open before
running into exporter offers around the Tokyo fix, the pair stood firm
at Y78.50 and continued in a tight range ahead of Europe. Dollar
continues to find support on the downside with few yet prepared to test
the resolve of Japanese authorities, as traders look to the BOJ monetary
policy statement tomorrow for further signs of easing. Resistance seen
at Y78.75/80, stronger behind at Y79.00 with stops set on a break.
Support seen at Y78.50, through here opens bids at Y78.30 ahead of
Y78.15/10. Euro-yen closed in NY at Y97.45 having eased off Y97.81
highs. Exporter offers weighed in early trade and the cross printed
Y97.24, before bouncing around the fix to Y97.40. Trade volumes
continued light and rangebound ahead of Europe. Support seen at
Y97.25/20, stronger behind at Y97.00. Reported offers at Y97.50, a break
opens Y97.80/90 (Y97.82/88 - 7 Aug high, 50% retracement of July
pullback). Stronger offers behind at Y98.00 with stops set.
Cable closed in NY at $1.5618, the rate having pulled back from session
highs of $1.5684 after recovering off earlier European lows of $1.5579.
Rate continued this corrective easing into early Asia, meeting support
at $1.5603 (76.4% $1.5579-1.5684) before recovering to $1.5622 then
settling between $1.5610/20 into the Asian afternoon. Fresh sell
pressure emerged into early Europe with rate currently trading around
$1.5608. Euro-sterling was contained within a range of stg0.7930/40
through overnight trade. Focus today on the BOE Inflation Report with
most expecting a downside revision to growth and inflation forecasts.
Despite this view cable has been able to remain above $1.5600, while
euro-sterling holds off recent highs at stg0.7963. Direction to be given
by BOE King's tone. Bids remain in place into $1.5600, a break to open a
retest of Tuesday's lows at $1.5579 ahead of $1.5565/45. Stops noted
below $1.5540. Resistance $1.5625 ahead of $1.5650, $1.5665 and
$1.5680/85. Euro-sterling support stg0.7925/20 ahead of stg0.7900.
Resistance stg0.7940/45, stg0.7960/70.
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut,
* Euro-dollar; $1.2300, $1.2320, $1.2400, $1.2410, $1.2475, $1.2495
* Dollar-yen; Y78.50, Y78.80, Y79.00
* Cable; $1.5600
* Euro-sterling; stg0.7800
* Dollar-Swiss; Chf0.9705
* Aussie; $1.0515, $1.0500
Turning to the technical picture, the euro tested Fibonacci level at
$1.2445 before pulling back. The daily stochastic study remains firm,
but 10-day momentum is waning as further Fibonacci resistance stands at
$1.2478 and $1.2539, The 5 & 21-DMAs turn support at $1.2350 and
$1.2260.
Cable sees the 5, 55 & 21-DMAs turn support at $1.5581/98 & $1.5602 as
bulls face moving average and Fibonacci resistance from $1.5730
(200-DMA) to $1.5786 (a 50% retracement of the decline from 30 April to
June 1. Studies are mixed, with 10-day momentum firm but the stochastic
study weakening in neutral territory.
Dollar-yen holds under the base of the Ichimoku cloud of Y79.51 but firm
studies see the pair testing the 21-DMA, which declines to Y78.60 and
forms part of initial MA and Ichimoku resistance to Y79.01/17. While
below here, bears remain focused on June lows of Y77.66. There are also
minor trendlines at Y77.96/78.95.
Euro-yen also sees the daily stochastic study continue to encourage
recovery, although bulls face Fibonacci resistance at Y97.88 and Y98.76
as the 10-day momentum study fades slightly and the 5 & 21-day moving
averages turn support at Y96.35/85.
In other markets, the major European bourses are initially seen trading
narrowly mixed Wednesday. Spreadbetters Cantor Index are calling the
FTSE down 10, the DAX down 3 and the CAC down 1. Spreadbetters re also
calling the IBEX lower, down 7.
The Dow and Nasdaq ended the Tuesday session with modest gains, though
both were off their best levels of the session. Dow added 50 points or
0.38% to close at 13,168, while Nasdaq was up 26 points or 0.87% to
close at 3015. US index futures are trading modestly lower Weds, The S&P
Sep contract was last2.25 points lower at 1394.75, with the Nasdaq Sep
contract down 0.25 points at 2709.75.
Japanese stocks are higher, but off the best levels. The Nikkei was last
0.6% higher at 8858, with the TOPIX up 0.25% at 745.5.
Crude futures are trading lower in Asian trade, although holding the
bulk of the solid gains seen in the previous session. The front-month
WTI contract was last trading at $93.30, lower by 37 cents, having
traded a relatively narrow $93.20 to $93.52 range
Looking ahead, European data for Wednesday starts at 0600GMT with the
German trade balance for June, which us expected to come in at a
seasonally-adjusted reading of E14.5 billion.
France data sees the 0630GMT release of the BdF business survey and
0645GMT release of foreign trade data. The business survey is expected
to edge slightly lower for July.
Spain industrial output then follows at 0700GMT.
UK data is focused on the Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report
from 0930GMT, including the press conference with Bank of England
Governor Mervyn King.
Downgrades to both the growth and inflation forecasts in the August
report look almost inevitable. The May Inflation Report showed CPI
coming in at just 1.6% two years ahead and the central projection in the
August report is likely to show it lower still. The May report's implied
forecast for 2012 growth was just under 0.7%, and the likelihood is this
will be cut to close to flat. The unknowns include what estimates the
Inflation Report makes for the impact for the credit easing initiatives
that have recently been launched, most notably the Funding for Lending
Scheme, which should have some offsetting up effect on both growth and
inflation.
European data rounds off at 1000GMT with Germany industrial output,
which is expected to come in at -0.9% m/m, -0.1% y/y, while also in
Europe on Wednesday, Germany re-opens its 10-year benchmark 1.75% July
2022 Bund issue for up to E4 billion.
US data starts at 1100GMT with the weekly MBA Mortgage Application
Index, while at 1230GMT, non-farm productivity is expected to be rise
1.4% in the preliminary estimate for the second quarter after falling in
the previous quarter. GDP growth was slower in the second quarter than
in the first quarter. Unit labor costs are expected to increase 0.7% in
second quarter, compared with the 1.3% growth pace posted in the first
quarter.
The weekly EIA Crude Oil Stocks data follows at 1430GMT.
There is also a 10-year note auction in the US today.
Euro-dollar closed in NY at $1.2397 after rate had extended its recovery
off European morning lows of $1.2376 to $1.2443, falling just short of
Monday's highs at $1.2444, with protection of the much reported barrier
at $1.2450 countering. The corrective pullback extended into early Asia,
tripping stops below $1.2390 before meeting support at $1.2377. Rate
recovered, making a brief show above $1.2400 ($1.2403 high), but
reported sell interest placed above the figure countered the move which
saw it squeeze back to $1.2386 ahead of the European open. Another quiet
session in Asia with rate remaining rangebound awaiting developments in
the Spain and Italy debt support plan for direction. Bids reported into
$1.2370, with Eastern bloc demand interest also noted below this level.
Further demand noted between $1.2360/50 ahead of recent lows at $1.2342
(Aug 6). Resistance seen above $1.2400, with further interest noted into
$1.2420. A break here to open a move toward stronger resistance area
between $1.2440/50. Barrier interest remains at $1.2450. Stronger offers
begin from $1.2485 through to $1.2500.
Dollar-yen closed in NY Tuesday at Y78.60, off Y78.73 highs driven by
real money demand. Dollar-yen ground higher on the Asian open before
running into exporter offers around the Tokyo fix, the pair stood firm
at Y78.50 and continued in a tight range ahead of Europe. Dollar
continues to find support on the downside with few yet prepared to test
the resolve of Japanese authorities, as traders look to the BOJ monetary
policy statement tomorrow for further signs of easing. Resistance seen
at Y78.75/80, stronger behind at Y79.00 with stops set on a break.
Support seen at Y78.50, through here opens bids at Y78.30 ahead of
Y78.15/10. Euro-yen closed in NY at Y97.45 having eased off Y97.81
highs. Exporter offers weighed in early trade and the cross printed
Y97.24, before bouncing around the fix to Y97.40. Trade volumes
continued light and rangebound ahead of Europe. Support seen at
Y97.25/20, stronger behind at Y97.00. Reported offers at Y97.50, a break
opens Y97.80/90 (Y97.82/88 - 7 Aug high, 50% retracement of July
pullback). Stronger offers behind at Y98.00 with stops set.
Cable closed in NY at $1.5618, the rate having pulled back from session
highs of $1.5684 after recovering off earlier European lows of $1.5579.
Rate continued this corrective easing into early Asia, meeting support
at $1.5603 (76.4% $1.5579-1.5684) before recovering to $1.5622 then
settling between $1.5610/20 into the Asian afternoon. Fresh sell
pressure emerged into early Europe with rate currently trading around
$1.5608. Euro-sterling was contained within a range of stg0.7930/40
through overnight trade. Focus today on the BOE Inflation Report with
most expecting a downside revision to growth and inflation forecasts.
Despite this view cable has been able to remain above $1.5600, while
euro-sterling holds off recent highs at stg0.7963. Direction to be given
by BOE King's tone. Bids remain in place into $1.5600, a break to open a
retest of Tuesday's lows at $1.5579 ahead of $1.5565/45. Stops noted
below $1.5540. Resistance $1.5625 ahead of $1.5650, $1.5665 and
$1.5680/85. Euro-sterling support stg0.7925/20 ahead of stg0.7900.
Resistance stg0.7940/45, stg0.7960/70.
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut,
* Euro-dollar; $1.2300, $1.2320, $1.2400, $1.2410, $1.2475, $1.2495
* Dollar-yen; Y78.50, Y78.80, Y79.00
* Cable; $1.5600
* Euro-sterling; stg0.7800
* Dollar-Swiss; Chf0.9705
* Aussie; $1.0515, $1.0500
Turning to the technical picture, the euro tested Fibonacci level at
$1.2445 before pulling back. The daily stochastic study remains firm,
but 10-day momentum is waning as further Fibonacci resistance stands at
$1.2478 and $1.2539, The 5 & 21-DMAs turn support at $1.2350 and
$1.2260.
Cable sees the 5, 55 & 21-DMAs turn support at $1.5581/98 & $1.5602 as
bulls face moving average and Fibonacci resistance from $1.5730
(200-DMA) to $1.5786 (a 50% retracement of the decline from 30 April to
June 1. Studies are mixed, with 10-day momentum firm but the stochastic
study weakening in neutral territory.
Dollar-yen holds under the base of the Ichimoku cloud of Y79.51 but firm
studies see the pair testing the 21-DMA, which declines to Y78.60 and
forms part of initial MA and Ichimoku resistance to Y79.01/17. While
below here, bears remain focused on June lows of Y77.66. There are also
minor trendlines at Y77.96/78.95.
Euro-yen also sees the daily stochastic study continue to encourage
recovery, although bulls face Fibonacci resistance at Y97.88 and Y98.76
as the 10-day momentum study fades slightly and the 5 & 21-day moving
averages turn support at Y96.35/85.
In other markets, the major European bourses are initially seen trading
narrowly mixed Wednesday. Spreadbetters Cantor Index are calling the
FTSE down 10, the DAX down 3 and the CAC down 1. Spreadbetters re also
calling the IBEX lower, down 7.
The Dow and Nasdaq ended the Tuesday session with modest gains, though
both were off their best levels of the session. Dow added 50 points or
0.38% to close at 13,168, while Nasdaq was up 26 points or 0.87% to
close at 3015. US index futures are trading modestly lower Weds, The S&P
Sep contract was last2.25 points lower at 1394.75, with the Nasdaq Sep
contract down 0.25 points at 2709.75.
Japanese stocks are higher, but off the best levels. The Nikkei was last
0.6% higher at 8858, with the TOPIX up 0.25% at 745.5.
Crude futures are trading lower in Asian trade, although holding the
bulk of the solid gains seen in the previous session. The front-month
WTI contract was last trading at $93.30, lower by 37 cents, having
traded a relatively narrow $93.20 to $93.52 range
Looking ahead, European data for Wednesday starts at 0600GMT with the
German trade balance for June, which us expected to come in at a
seasonally-adjusted reading of E14.5 billion.
France data sees the 0630GMT release of the BdF business survey and
0645GMT release of foreign trade data. The business survey is expected
to edge slightly lower for July.
Spain industrial output then follows at 0700GMT.
UK data is focused on the Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report
from 0930GMT, including the press conference with Bank of England
Governor Mervyn King.
Downgrades to both the growth and inflation forecasts in the August
report look almost inevitable. The May Inflation Report showed CPI
coming in at just 1.6% two years ahead and the central projection in the
August report is likely to show it lower still. The May report's implied
forecast for 2012 growth was just under 0.7%, and the likelihood is this
will be cut to close to flat. The unknowns include what estimates the
Inflation Report makes for the impact for the credit easing initiatives
that have recently been launched, most notably the Funding for Lending
Scheme, which should have some offsetting up effect on both growth and
inflation.
European data rounds off at 1000GMT with Germany industrial output,
which is expected to come in at -0.9% m/m, -0.1% y/y, while also in
Europe on Wednesday, Germany re-opens its 10-year benchmark 1.75% July
2022 Bund issue for up to E4 billion.
US data starts at 1100GMT with the weekly MBA Mortgage Application
Index, while at 1230GMT, non-farm productivity is expected to be rise
1.4% in the preliminary estimate for the second quarter after falling in
the previous quarter. GDP growth was slower in the second quarter than
in the first quarter. Unit labor costs are expected to increase 0.7% in
second quarter, compared with the 1.3% growth pace posted in the first
quarter.
The weekly EIA Crude Oil Stocks data follows at 1430GMT.
There is also a 10-year note auction in the US today.
... zbieraj pips do pipa bo jak nie to z depo będzie lipa... G."niemiaszek"
-
_/_/Dariusz_/_/
- Pasjonat
- Posty: 1238
- Rejestracja: 02 sty 2012, 22:04
Mimo szczerych chęci, ale fusy zdecydowanie pokazują spadki na eduardo.German trade surplus rose to € 16.2 bln in June, € 1.2 bln more than expected € 15.0 bln and upwardly revised € 15.3 bln reported lat month
Imports declined by 3.0 pct, while exports also suffered by drop of 1.5 pct on slower global economic momentum
Economists expected drop of 1.5 pct for both exports and imports
W nocy zostawiłem dwie małe pozycje i parę pipsów wpadło.
Nachodzi mnie na GBPNZD, gdzie dzisiaj wchodzą dane funtowe a akurat w tej parze były duże spadki , co by mogło wskazywać umocnienie funta.
Zaznaczyłem odwrócone rgr, ale to tak dla wielbicieli gatunku
Nie masz wymaganych uprawnień, aby zobaczyć pliki załączone do tego posta.
Objective perspective, just businiess...
Ten ostatni ruch to prawdopodobnie za French Trade Ballance, który wypadł niezbyt ładnie.
Bank of France Survey: 3Q GDP seen down 0.1% q/q (1st estimate)
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut,
* Euro-dollar;
$1.2300, $1.2320
$1.2400, $1.2410,
$1.2475, $1.2495
* Dollar-yen; Y78.50, Y78.80, Y79.00
* Cable; $1.5600
* Euro-sterling; stg0.7800
* Dollar-Swiss; Chf0.9705
* Aussie; $1.0515, $1.0500
Intraday options that are due to expire today at 10am NY cut (1500BST)
EUR/USD - 1.2400, 1.2410
USD/JPY - 78.50, 78.80
GBP/USD - 1.5600
USD/CHF - 0.9705
AUD/USD - 1.0500, 1.0515
-
_/_/Dariusz_/_/
- Pasjonat
- Posty: 1238
- Rejestracja: 02 sty 2012, 22:04
Jakoś mało się ostatnio mówi o Francji, a z tego co pamiętam też tam było i jest nie najlepiej . Dlaczego Francja jest tak w cieniu Niemiec, UK, Grecji, Włoch . Może mają jakiegoś asa w rękawie, który pogrąży całą strefę ?Stforex pisze:Ten ostatni ruch to prawdopodobnie za French Trade Ballance, który wypadł niezbyt ładnie.
Wczoraj dotarła też informacja o bardzo złej sytuacji finansowej Cypru jako całości z naciskiem na gospodarkę a nie wyłącznie sektora bankowego, bedą potrzebowali zdecydowanego wsparcia.
Objective perspective, just businiess...
-
niemiaszek
- Przyjaciel Forum
- Posty: 5097
- Rejestracja: 08 lis 2010, 15:02
BONDS: German government bonds are opening higher Wednesday on
return of flight-to-quality buying as Spain 10-year yield approaches
7.00% on story that Spain will not seek a broader bailout if new
conditions are attached. Bunds are also seen underpinned by potential
Gilt outperformance on expectations of a dovish Bank of England
Quarterly Inflation Report. Spain 10-year yield rose sharply yesterday
as Spain continues to resist requesting a bailout and expects to wait
until and see what conditions would accompany a bailout before making a
decision, as it has already completed 72.6% of its gross funding so far
in 2012. Market is now looking to test Rajoy's government resolve and
traders look for Spain 10-year yield to break back above 7.00% level,
which in turn is seen forcing the government to sign the MoU. Whilst ECB
President Draghi's pledge to re-kindle bond buying is re-assuring, this
bond buying is contingent on governments asking for primary bond market
intervention through the EFSF/ESM, and also abiding by the conditions
attached to such support, which leaves implementation risks.
return of flight-to-quality buying as Spain 10-year yield approaches
7.00% on story that Spain will not seek a broader bailout if new
conditions are attached. Bunds are also seen underpinned by potential
Gilt outperformance on expectations of a dovish Bank of England
Quarterly Inflation Report. Spain 10-year yield rose sharply yesterday
as Spain continues to resist requesting a bailout and expects to wait
until and see what conditions would accompany a bailout before making a
decision, as it has already completed 72.6% of its gross funding so far
in 2012. Market is now looking to test Rajoy's government resolve and
traders look for Spain 10-year yield to break back above 7.00% level,
which in turn is seen forcing the government to sign the MoU. Whilst ECB
President Draghi's pledge to re-kindle bond buying is re-assuring, this
bond buying is contingent on governments asking for primary bond market
intervention through the EFSF/ESM, and also abiding by the conditions
attached to such support, which leaves implementation risks.
... zbieraj pips do pipa bo jak nie to z depo będzie lipa... G."niemiaszek"
Cypr ponoć udzielił ogromnej pożyczki Grecji i związał się z nią gospodarczo. Teraz idzie na dno razem z nią. Czy mi się wydaje, czy nie wałkowaliśmy tutaj jeszcze Cypru? To może być ciekawy temat.
Francja jest na razie nad powierzchnią wody, bo z okazji awersji do ryzyka mają niskie oprocentowanie długu. Jakby powiedział Schaube-Rajoy "nieodzwierciedlające stanu gospodarki"
Francja jest na razie nad powierzchnią wody, bo z okazji awersji do ryzyka mają niskie oprocentowanie długu. Jakby powiedział Schaube-Rajoy "nieodzwierciedlające stanu gospodarki"