EUROPE: Friday sees a quieter calendar, although markets will continue to deal
with the fall out from the FOMC and the Bernanke comments. The data releases
start at 0645GMT, with the release of the French Q1 employment and wages data.
Economists are looking for a wages increase of 0.7% on quarter. Bundesbank Board
member Joachim Nagel will give a speech on the euro crisis and German banks,
starting at 0700GMT. Further EMU data will be released at 0800GMT, when the ECB
April current account numbers will be released. At 0930GMT, the German
government spokesperson will hold the regular press briefing, in Berlin.
GERMANY: The head of the German public sector banking association says the
troubled Landesbank's should be at the centre of any new economic strategy for
the country, the FT reports.
GREECE: Wires are picking up comments from a Greek Democratic Left lawmaker,
saying his party should withdraw ministers from the coalition government.
GREECE: Wires now quoting - one assumes - a different Democratic Left lawmaker,
saying the party should stay in the coalition government (Rtrs)
GREECE: IMF's Lipton tells CNBC GreeCE making good progress, although there are
some issues. However, he underlines IMF officials will be back in Athens before
the end of the month.
UK PRESS: Another UK home builder, Berkeley Group, announced solid results
Thursday, noting he continuing return of confidence among homebuyers.
US PRESS: Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ have agreed to pay $250 mln in fines to
NY State, the Washington Post reports, to settle charges for money laundering
and sanction breaking.
IMF: IMF Lipton says all the talk about Fed slowing/exiting QE and easing is
only possible as the US economy is recovering.
EURO SUMMARY: Euro-dollar closed in NY Thursday at $1.3220. The rate earlier
pressed to session lows of $1.3161 after release of strong Philly Fed data,
finding support ahead of the 21 dma. Dip demand bounced and the euro recovered
on strong support in the crosses, extending back through $1.3200 to $1.3239.
Sentiment soon turned and with sharp declines in equities, aided by a report in
the FT that the IMF was about to halt payments to Greece, the pair reversed to
$1.3194, later bouncing into the close. Dollar sales in early Asia lifted
euro-dollar to $1.3246 as traders anticipated a weak Nikkei opening after sharp
equity falls in the US yesterday. Momentum soon turned and a bounce in
Dollar-yen with demand from Japanese banks pared gains, briefly making a show
under $1.3200. The pair saw an immediate bounce to settle in a tight $1.3210/20
range, before fresh demand emerged taking the rate to extended highs of $1.3254.
Traders reported a technical fund sold into the rally and with dollar support
across the board as stocks turned positive, rate drifted to $1.3230 ahead of
Europe. Asian bids are reported on the downside through $1.3180/50, stops behind
on a break of $1.3140. Offers seen into $1.3255, with more stops set.
STERLING SUMMARY: Cable found support throughout the US afternoon bouncing off
European lows of $1.5415 after release of strong Retail Sales. The rate opened
in NY around $1.5445 and ground higher throughout the session, strong offers
ahead of $1.5500 capped the topside to close in NY at $1.5490. Euro-sterling
traded heavy and after bouncing off lows of stg0.8517 to stg0.8553, the cross
slipped back as equities dumped to close at stg0.8535. Cable opened firmer in
early Asia to $1.5523 as traders sold the dollar in anticipation of a weak
Nikkei open. The rate stalled and as dollar-yen bounced on demand from Japanese
banks, pared early gains back through $1.5500 to lows of $1.5491. Support in the
dip cushioned and the pair tracked euro-dollar's extended recovery to re-test
session highs, but with lack of follow through drifted to $1.5500 ahead of
Europe. Initial support seen at $1.5480, bids behind at $1.5450 with stronger on
approach to $1.5400 ($1.5401 - 38.2% of $1.4832-1.5752). The cross dipped to
early lows of stg0.8518, before bouncing to stg0.8538 and settled in a tight 10
pip range for the remainder of the session.
YEN SUMMARY: Dollar-yen closed in NY Thursday at Y97.45. The rate earlier lifted
to Y98.23 after release of strong Philly Fed data, before easing on profit take
sales. Sentiment soon turned and as equities tumbled, triggering large euro-yen
sales the rate gapped from Y98.10 to Y97.11. Traders noted the Nikkei futures
were down 250+ points at one stage, before a bounce in stocks recovered to the
close. Euro-yen advanced to Y129.82, meeting resistance ahead of the Daily
Ichimoku cloud top. Sharp sales pressed gapping to eventual lows of Y128.23,
before recovering to close at Y128.80. Dollar sales around the Asian open
pressed to Y96.86 as traders anticipated a soft open for the Nikkei, a tech name
bought in the dip lifting the rate back above Y97.00. Demand from Japanese banks
extended gains to Y97.35/40, others attributed the move to large buy orders in
aussie-yen. Momentum stalled on macro supply to settle around Y97.20, before a
strong rally in the Nikkei led the dollar to session highs of Y97.77. The cross
pressed to lows of Y128.21, before bouncing with the dollar to Y128.80,
extending gains in late trade to 129.35.
JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japan's benchmark stocks are higher Friday, having rallied
sharply off the early session lows - boosted by short-covering as the yen
weakened against the dollar. The Nikkei 225 was higher by 215.55 points, or
1.66%, at 13230.13. Into the close, the broader-based TOPIX was higher by 8.71
points at 1100.52. Market breadth indicators saw 150 issues higher, 65 lower and
10 unchanged. Preliminary volume stood at 1.773 bn shares.
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: There is no sovereign bond issuance in the eurozone scheduled
Friday, which has completed for this week and totals E19.64bln vs E16.48bln sold
last week. As a recap, Slovakia tapped the 4.625% 2017 SLOVGB219 & 3.00% 2023
SLOVGB225 issues on Monday for E101mln and E112mln, respectively. On Tuesday,
Finland taps its 10-year benchmark 1.50% Apr 2023 RFGB and 30-year benchmark
2.625% July 2042 RFGB issues for combined size of E1.5bln. On Wednesday, Germany
re-opened its 10-year benchmark 1.50% May 2023 Bund for up to E5.0bln. On
Thursday, France sold a new 5-year benchmark 1.00% Nov 2018 OAT and tapped its
2-year benchmark 0.25% 2015 Nov OAT issue for E7.43bln and also tap linker
issues -- 0.45% July 2016 OATi, 0.25% July 2024 OATei, 1.85% July 2027 OATei for
E1.48bln. Also on Thursday, Spain tapped off-the-run 4.10% July 2018 Obligacion
and 5.50% Apr 2021 Obligacion along with 10-year benchmark 4.40% Oct 2023
Obligacion for E4.016bln. In terms of reinvestment flows, there are no
redemptions and coupon payments from Ireland E0.3bln, Portugal E0.3bln, Germany
E0.2bln, Austria E0.2bln, Spain E0.1bln and Greece E0.1bln -- turns net cash
flow negative to the tune of E18.4bln vs +E2.0bln last week.
EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: Eurozone sovereign T-bill issuance has been completed
for this week, with E23.567bln allocated by Netherlands, France, Spain, Greece,
Belgium, ESM, Portugal and Ireland, compared to E19.673bln allotted last week.
To recap issuance this week, on Monday, Netherlands sold E1.4bln 3-month DTC at
average yield -0.01% and sold E1.11bln 6-month DTC at average yield 0.03%. In
the afternoon France sold E4.197bln 3-month BTF at average yield 0.033%,
E1.699bln 6-month BTF at average yield 0.058% and E1.693bln 12-month BTF at
average yield 0.099%. On Tuesday Spain sold E1.087bln 6-month Letra at average
yield 0.821% and E3.951bln 12-month Letra at average yield 1.395%. Greece sold
E1.3bln 13-week T-bill at average yield 4.02%. Belgium sold E930mln 3-month TC
at average yield of 0.014% and E1.4bln 12-month TC at average yield 0.142%. ESM
sold E3.0bln 6-month Bill at average yield 0.0307%. On Wednesday Portugal sold
E450mln 6-month T-bill at average yield 1.041% and E1.05bln 18-month T-bill at
average yield 1.603%. On Thursday Ireland sold E300mln 3-month T-bill at average
yield 0.2%. T-bill issuance expected to remain little changed next week with
plans from Germany, France, Spain and Italy, and is expected to total E21bln.
EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few days:
- Jun 21 EcoFin meeting in Luxembourg; ECB Draghi to participate
- Jun 21 ECB announces 3-year LTRO repayment for following week
- Jun 21 France 1Q employment
- Jun 21 Spain T-bill redemption for E9.621bln
- Jun 21 Portugal T-bill redemption for E1.54bln
- Jun 21 Greek T-bill redemption for E1.6bln
- Jun 24 Berlusconi faces verdict in Ruby trial
- Jun 24 German Ifo June survey
- Jun 24 Italy Jun ISTAT consumer confidence survey
- Jun 25 Italy CTZ/Linker bond auction
- Jun 25 Greek Bond redemption for E49.7mln
- Jun 25 Spain 3-/9-month T-bill auction
- Jun 26 Italy T-bill auction
- Jun 27/28 European Council Summit
- Jun 27 Italy BTP bond auction
... zbieraj pips do pipa bo jak nie to z depo będzie lipa... G."niemiaszek"
Witam Wszystkich (nowy użytkownik - na razie dawca kapitału )
Narysowałem te kreski już przy drugim testowaniu górnego oporu kanału (niebieskie kreski). Może się EJ obsunąć do dolnego oporu (to wg. mnie byłaby trzecia fala w dół). Jestem początkującym "technikiem" proszę o krytykę...
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no dobrze kminisz, niebieska linia jest oporem fali spadkowej, a na jej grzbiecie jest punkt decyzyjny w którą stronę cena podąży, w takich miejscach warto obserwować składowe pary walutowej i dane fundamentalne
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Przedstawione, poglądy, oceny i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów autora i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji autora.Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte i z wykorzystaniem wniosków w nich zawartych, ponosi inwestor.
pedro pisze:a taki scenariusz? EJ M30 ...
specjalisci co na to?
nie jestem specjalistą ale...
kupiłeś przy górnej linii trendu i z tego co widzę to przed danymi z JPY jak sam zauważysz nie był to dobry ruch chyba że miałeś nadzieję że Jen się osłabi ale wszystko jest możliwe
Przedstawione w powyższym opracowaniu treści sporządzone z najwyższą starannością i według najlepszej wiedzy autora. Prezentowane w celach informacyjnym i edukacyjnym i nie powinny być wyłączną podstawą podejmowania decyzji. Nie stanowią rekomendacji
pedro pisze:a taki scenariusz? EJ M30 ...
specjalisci co na to?
nie jestem specjalistą ale...
kupiłeś przy górnej linii trendu i z tego co widzę to przed danymi z JPY jak sam zauważysz nie był to dobry ruch chyba że miałeś nadzieję że Jen się osłabi ale wszystko jest możliwe
nadzieja matką głupich, tym bardziej na fx ... zamknięte + 100
dzieki!
Jutro też jest dzień.
Trend is Your Friend... a setup Twoja stara!
Witam wszystkich serdecznie. Prawda jest taka, że trzeba być nieźle ukierunkowanym debilem, żeby zarobić milion dolarów. - A. Ostrowski
pedro pisze:a taki scenariusz? EJ M30 ...
specjalisci co na to?
nie jestem specjalistą ale...
kupiłeś przy górnej linii trendu i z tego co widzę to przed danymi z JPY jak sam zauważysz nie był to dobry ruch chyba że miałeś nadzieję że Jen się osłabi ale wszystko jest możliwe
nadzieja matką głupich, tym bardziej na fx ... zamknięte + 100
dzieki!
gratuluje albo jesteś ranny ptaszek albo oczekujące ale trzymaj tak dalej
Przedstawione w powyższym opracowaniu treści sporządzone z najwyższą starannością i według najlepszej wiedzy autora. Prezentowane w celach informacyjnym i edukacyjnym i nie powinny być wyłączną podstawą podejmowania decyzji. Nie stanowią rekomendacji
Nie masz wymaganych uprawnień, aby zobaczyć pliki załączone do tego posta.
Zamieszczane przeze mnie analizy i opinie są wyłącznie moim subiektywnym spojrzeniem na rynek i nie stanowią żadnych rekomendacji. Podejmowanie na ich podstawie decyzji inwestycyjnych odbywa się na własną odpowiedzialność inwestora.