prognoza
DUE UP: UK June retail sales data due at 0830GMT. MNI median estimate for retail
sales ex auto is +0.2% m/m, +4.6% y/y in June vs -0.5% m/m, +4.7% y/y May;
including auto +0.2% m/m, +3.8% y/y in June vs -0.5% m/m, +3.9% y/y May.
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Barclays looks for an uptick in the m/m growth in June, consistent with robust
annual growth. "This would point to sustained consumption growth in Q2."
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RBS UK economist Ross Walker forecasts retail sales volumes (ex-auto fuel) to
fall 0.1% m/m in June, lowering the y/y rate to 4.3% but raising the 3m/3m
growth rate to 1.8% in Q2.
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Nomura says "there was a dip in sales in May, but that appears to have been
mainly payback from a surge in April, returning sales to their brisk uptrend of
the past year. We expect that trend to be maintained, with growth of 0.3% m/m in
June."
