1. W wątku DT omawiamy bieżąca sytuacje na rynku i to co dotyczy danego dnia. Od dłuższych prognoz jest dział Prognozy, komentarze, analizy
2. Zamieszczamy tylko i wyłącznie swoje analizy. Nie kopiujemy z innych serwisów.
3. Komentarz do własnej analizy nie może mieć charakteru rekomendacji. (to nie jest dział z sygnałami)
4. Kłótnie, ataki na innych użytkowników są niedopuszczalne.
5. Nie zaśmiecamy wątku. (wypowiedzi w stylu: "dałem S", "ja kończę na dziś" itp. jak i chwalenie się swoimi statami)
Nagminne łamanie powyższych zasad będzie skutkować nałozeniem zakazu pisania do końca bieżącego tygodnia.
Recydywa będzie karana ostrzeżeniami.
Przypominam że ponadto obowiązuje Regulamin Forum
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Przedstawione poglądy, oceny, opinie i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów
autorów i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji do nabycia lub zbycia albo
powstrzymania się od dokonania transakcji w odniesieniu do jakichkolwiek walut.
Poglądy te jak i inne treści nie stanowią "rekomendacji" lub "doradztwa"
w rozumieniu ustawy z dnia 29 lipca 2005 o obrocie instrumentami finansowymi.
Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte lub zaniechane
na podstawie poniższych analiz ponosi inwestor.
fajna realizacja zysków w piątek miała miejsce, wybili szczyt i mogą spadać,
w mojej ocenie 1.3559-88 gdzieś w tym miejscu powinien się znaleźć Edwardo już niedługo.
(jeżeli ten poziom zostanie na stałe przebity to możemy zejść w niższe rejony 1.3290)
ale w dłuższej perspektywie przewiduję nadal 1.41 i wyżej.
EURO SUMMARY: The euro traded a high of $1.3846 in early US trading action
on Friday but followed up with a decline to lows of $1.3731 before it closed
near $1.3750. Early Asian trade this morning saw euro-dollar ease again to
$1.3742 before it attempted a rebound to $1.3763 in holiday-thinned liquidity.
The pair backed away again soon after, heading to mark a fresh morning low of
$1.3734, almost matching last Friday's NY low. Euro-dollar was last at $1.3751.
The $1.3621 level remains key support with a close below needed to end bullish
aspirations and see immediate focus shift lower to retests of the $1.3485-1.3525
support region with potential for a deeper move that targets the $1.3295 Nov
monthly low. A close at fresh 2013 highs is needed to kick start bullish
momentum and see focus shift to tests of the $1.4241 Oct 2011 monthly high.
EUR/USD: Euro-dollar holds above Nov 7 support line which is at $1.3665 but also
left a huge upper shadow after bulls spiked higher to test resistance just below
the $1.3900 level. A monthly resistance line from July 2008 is at $1.3939 and a
break above $1.3832 (Oct 25 high) could see bulls target here, however we note
10-week momentum study slips into negative territory adding caution higher. The
Nov 7 support line is key at $1.3681 and below here is 38.2% at $1.3665.
EURO-DOLLAR: MNI Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals),
*$1.4256 76.4% $1.4940 May'11-1.2042 Jul'12
*$1.3920 Medium offers/Stops
*$1.3900 Strong offers on approach/Barrier/Stops
*$1.3894 Dec27 high (Europe)
*$1.3845/55 Medium offers/$1.3847 NY high Friday;$1.3855 76.4% $1.3894-1.3728
*$1.3830 Medium offers/$1.3831 61.8% $1.3894-1.3728/Stops
*$1.3790-810 Medium offers dotted between/Stops on break
*$1.3770 Int.Day high Asia
*$1.3737 ***Current mkt rate 0646GMT Monday
*$1.3728 Int.Day low Asia
*$1.3725/15 Medium demand
*$1.3700 Minor demand
*$1.3688 Dec27 low
*$1.3650 Medium demand
*$1.3620/00 $1.3622 55-50-dma/$1.3603 40-dma
STERLING SUMMARY: Cable closed in NY Friday at $1.6483 after rate had pulled
back from an earlier high of $1.6577 to $1.6459 in thin flow driven trade. Rate
squeezed back to $1.6468 in early Asian dealing, trading around $1.6470 before
fresh demand emerged as the major centres began to open. Cable pushed to a
session high of $1.6500 before momentum faded and rate eased its way back to the
earlier lows of $1.6468 then settled around $1.6475 ahead of the European open.
Offers remain in placed between $1.6500/05, a break to open a move toward
$1.6520 with further resistance seen at $1.6530/35, $1.6550 ahead of Friday's
high, with barrier interest noted at $1.6600 behind. Support seen at $1.6468-59
(Asia-NY pullback lows), a break to open a deeper move toward $1.6450/45 with
stops placed below. Further demand seen into $1.6405/00. Euro-sterling trade in
Asia was contained within a range of stg0.83365-0.83505 with rate favouring
toward the base into Europe. Markets expected to remain thin due to staff
holidays into New Year Wednesday with customer flows providing the main drive.
UK mfg PMI the domestic highlight for the week on Thursday, with construction
PMI set for Friday release.
GBP/USD: Cable holds below the $1.6500 level after bulls pushed up to $1.6578
high - daily studies remain in a bullish trend however have dipped a little and
we remind that weekly/monthly studies are overbought. Bulls look to close above
$1.6500 with eyes on the long-term target at $1.6690 after the double bottom
around Mar/Jul this year. However, failure to close above $1.6500 adds downside
risk and may see a slide to the Jul 9 support line at $1.6248.
CABLE: MNI Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals),
*$1.6615/20 Strong offers/$1.6618 Monthly high Aug 2011
*$1.6600 Strong offers/Barrier/Stops
*$1.6580 Medium offers on approach
*$1.6577 Friday Dec27 high
*$1.6550/55 Medium offers
*$1.6520 Medium offers
*$1.6500/05 Medium offers
*$1.6500 Int.day high Asia
*$1.6478 ***Current market rate 0711GMT Monday
*$1.6468 Int.Day low Asia
*$1.6459 Pullback low Dec27 off $1.6577
*$1.6450/45 Medium demand/$1.6440 Stops
*$1.6410/00 Medium demand
*$1.6380/70 Medium demand
*$1.6355/50 Medium demand
EURO-STERLING: MNI Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
*stg0.8500 Strong offers
*stg0.8475/80 Medium offers
*stg0.8467 Tues Dec17 high/Strong offers on approach
*stg0.8435/40 Medium offers
*stg0.8415/20 Medium offers
*Stg0.8400/05 Strong offers
*stg0.8391 Friday Dec27 high
*stg0.83505 Int.Day high Asia
*stg0.8339 ***Current market rate 0721GMT Monday
*stg0.8336 Int.Day low Europe, Asia stg0.8337
*stg0.8330/20 Strong demand/Stops
*stg0.8300/290 Medium demand
*stg0.8274 Dec4 low
*stg0.8260/50 Strong demand/stg0.8258 Dec3 low/stg0.8252 Dec2 low
*stg0.8250 Option barrier/Strong demand ahead
YEN SUMMARY: The Japanese currency ran into fresh weakness as the final 2 days
of 2013 began this morning in Asia, and looks set to close out the year near its
lowest levels in more than 5 years. Today is the last trading day for the year
for Japanese markets which will be closed from Tuesday, and will re-open on Jan.
6. Dollar-yen broke through Friday's US session high of Y105.18 and reached a
morning high of Y105.43, its highest since Oct 3, 2008. Euro-yen also maintained
a bullish tone through the morning today, opening at Y144.66 and then breaking
through Y145.00 again but failing to test last Friday's US session high of
Y145.31, reaching only Y145.3 in Asian trade this morning. Euro-yen was last at
Y144.84 while dollar-yen was at Y105.35. The next target on dollar-yen charts is
seen at Y105.50, a 61.8% retracement of its Y124.14-75.35 move, followed by
Y105.80. Beyond that, the focus would then be now on a continuation higher that
initially targets the Y106.90-10 region last seen back in Sept 2008.
USD/JPY: Dollar-yen pushes above the Y105.00 barrier to continue testing the
daily Bolli band top seen at Y105.46, just below the key 61.8% of long-term
Y124.14 to Y75.35 move which is at Y105.50. A break above would likely target
the longer-term resistance line from 1998 at Y106.41, however we note daily,
weekly and monthly studies are in overbought territory which adds a little risk
lower. Failure to break above Y105.50 and Y106.41 could see bears take control.
DOLLAR-YEN: MNI Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
Y106.39 Rising daily channel top
Y106.20 Market stops
Y106.00 Offers on approach, barrier, stops
Y105.80 Strong offers, stops
Y105.50 61.8% of Y124.14-75.35
Y105.43 Intraday high Asia
Y105.38 ***Current market rate 0730GMT Monday
Y105.11 Intraday low Europe, Asia Y105.14
Y104.85 US low
Y104.50 Demand on approach
Y104.20 Medium demand
Y104.14 24 Dec low
Y104.00 Strong demand, stops
Y103.80/75 Medium demand (Y103.78/77 - 19 & 23 Dec lows)
Y103.70 Market stops
EUR/JPY: Euro-yen spiked above Y145.00 but closed below, however bulls today
already testing here and a close above targets the Y145.69 level again and could
see a bulls test the channel top at Y146.07. But we note daily, weekly and
monthly studies are overbought and further failure to close above resistance
adds downside risk - initial support is the channel base at Y143.79, a break
below here targets the 23.6% level at 142.28.
EURO-YEN: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
*Y147.00 Strong offers/Barrier/Stops
*Y146.85 Oct3 2008 high
*Y146.50 Strong offers/Barrier/Stops
*Y146.00 Strong offers on approach/Barrier/Stops
*Y145.70/80 Strong offers/Stops
*Y145.69 Friday Dec27, fresh 2013 high
*Y145.30/35 Medium offers
*Y145.03 Int.Day high Asia
*Y144.97 ***Current market price 0754GMT Monday
*Y144.46 Int.Day low Asia
*Y144.50 Medium demand
*Y144.25/20 Medium demand
*Y144.00 Strong demand/Stops
*Y143.85/80 Medium demand
*Y143.60/50 Strong demand
JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japanese stock indices ended Monday higher. The session was
the last for 2013 and the benchmark indices ended at 6-year highs. The Nikkei
225 gained 112.37 points, or 0.69%, to stand at 16291.31. The broader-based
TOPIX was higher by 10.64 points at 1300.71. Nikkei market breadth saw 169
issues trade higher, 45 lower and 11 unchanged. Total volume was 1.36 billion.
AUSSIE SUMMARY: Another lackluster morning session for the aussie today, with
players counting down to the new year and staying on the sidelines ahead of the
New Year's Day holiday on Wednesday. There are no major data releases due this
week and this was exacerbating the already hushed trading conditions.
Aussie-dollar opened at $0.8871 this morning and ran into minor weakness through
the early hours of Monday. It slipped to $0.8846 prior to the Asian open and
sank further to $0.8834 in mid-morning Asian trade. Aussie-dollar was last at
$0.8848, with little signs of any sort of major rally seen so far. The immediate
focus for the aussie remains on re-tests of the recent 2013 low of $0.8820, with
a break lower then targeting the falling weekly channel base and Aug 2010
monthly lows in the $0.8762-71 region.
AUSSIE: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
*$0.9020 Strong offers, stops
*$0.9000 Strong offers, stops
*$0.8985/90 Medium offers
*$0.8980 Market stops ($0.8978 - 21-day ma)
*$0.8955/60 Medium offers, stops ($0.8958 - 23 Dec high)
*$0.8950 Medium offers
*$0.8905 Friday Dec27 high
*$0.8890 Minor offers
*$0.8866 Intraday high Asia
*$0.8847 ***Current market price 0738GMT Monday
*$0.8834 Intraday low Asia
*$0.8825/20 Strong demand ($0.8822 - 18 Dec low)
*$0.8800 Demand on approach, barrier, stops
*$0.8780 Large stops
*$0.8771 25 Oct low
OPTIONS: Option expiries for today's NY cut 1000ET,Option expiries for today's
NY cut 1000ET. Large(L), Very Large(VL),
* Dollar-yen; Y103.50, Y103.85, Y104.00, Y104.75, Y105.00(L), Y105.65
* Euro-dollar; $1.3700, $1.3725
* Euro-sterling; stg0.8420
... zbieraj pips do pipa bo jak nie to z depo będzie lipa... G."niemiaszek"
