1. W wątku DT omawiamy bieżąca sytuacje na rynku i to co dotyczy danego dnia. Od dłuższych prognoz jest dział Prognozy, komentarze, analizy
2. Zamieszczamy tylko i wyłącznie swoje analizy. Nie kopiujemy z innych serwisów.
3. Komentarz do własnej analizy nie może mieć charakteru rekomendacji. (to nie jest dział z sygnałami)
4. Kłótnie, ataki na innych użytkowników są niedopuszczalne.
5. Nie zaśmiecamy wątku. (wypowiedzi w stylu: "dałem S", "ja kończę na dziś" itp. jak i chwalenie się swoimi statami)
Nagminne łamanie powyższych zasad będzie skutkować nałozeniem zakazu pisania do końca bieżącego tygodnia.
Recydywa będzie karana ostrzeżeniami.
Przypominam że ponadto obowiązuje Regulamin Forum
Przedstawione poglądy, oceny, opinie i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów
autorów i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji do nabycia lub zbycia albo
powstrzymania się od dokonania transakcji w odniesieniu do jakichkolwiek walut.
Poglądy te jak i inne treści nie stanowią "rekomendacji" lub "doradztwa"
w rozumieniu ustawy z dnia 29 lipca 2005 o obrocie instrumentami finansowymi.
Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte lub zaniechane
na podstawie poniższych analiz ponosi inwestor.
S&P500 zblia się do oporu na poziomie 1470. To duża szansa na odbicie, i zjazd przynajmniej do 1440, tym bardziej, że na edku też zanosi się na korektę.
Nie masz wymaganych uprawnień, aby zobaczyć pliki załączone do tego posta.
EUROPE: A full calendar ahead on Thursday, with the main event later in
the day as EU leaders meet in Brussels for their latest Summit, with
Spain, Greece and plans for deeper economic and monetary union likely to
be the dominant topics. Ahead of that, at 0700GMT, Spanish August
services output and August industrial orders numbers are released. Also
ahead of the leaders Summit, European Economic and Monetary Affairs
Commissioner Olli Rehn is slated to participate at the ECMI annual
conference, also in Brussels. Also scheduled for 0700GMT, German
Chancellor Angela Merkel delivers a government declaration in the German
parliament on upcoming EU summit, in Berlin. At 0800GMT, the 0800/0400
Norges Bank is scheduled to publish its Q3 Survey of Bank Lending.
EUROPE: The FT says some eurozone leaders are expressing "alarm" as
Germany seem to be stalling on plans fro a European banking union,
setting up prospects of a confrontation at those week's EU summit.
ITALY: Moody's has downgraded the long-term debt and deposit
ratings of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS) by two notches to Ba2
from Baa3. The outlook remains negative. "The lowering of MPS's
standalone risk measures reflect Moody's view that, notwithstanding the
prospective EUR1.5 billion capital injection by the Italian government,
there remains a material probability that the bank will need to seek
further external support over the rating horizon," Moody's says.
GREECE: Although Greece and Troika lenders seem close to a new austerity
deal, both side acknowledge that some issues still remain unresolved,
the website eKathimerini reports.
GREECE: Greece's two largest working unions have announced a
massive 24 hour strike that begins at 6:00 local time Thursday to
protest over the new round of 13.5 billion euros in cuts.
IRELAND: The prospects of an early new debt deal fopr Ireland appear to
be slipping, as German again drags her heels on plans, the Irish Times
reports.
UK: UK data gets underway at 0830GMT, with the dominant release the
official September retail sales numbers. Also at 0830GMT, the September
CML gross mortgage lending data and the September SMMT car production
numbers are released.
UK PRESS: The flow of foreign money Into the London property market
continues apace, the FT reports, saying it now accounts fro around a
third of all European investment transactions.
UK PRESS: As the countdown begins in earnest towards the Scottish
Independence referendum in 2014, an opinion poll for the Times suggests
that support for an independent nation down sharply, standing at just
30%, off the 35% seen in June and the 39% seen in January.
US: US data kicks off at 1230GMT, with the Initial claims data for the
October 13 week likely to be the main release. U.S. 13-October Initial
Jobless Claims. The number is expected to rebound by 26,000 to 365,000
in the holiday-shortened October 13 employment survey week. At 1400GMT,
the October Philadelphia Fed Survey is expected. The index is forecast
to rise to a reading of 2.0 in October after negative readings in the
previous five months. Also at 1400GMT, the September Leading Indicator
will hit screens. The leading index is expected to rise 0.2% in
September after August's decline. The movements of the components are
expected to be mixed and roughly offsetting. At 1430GMT, the US Treasury
Under Secretary Mary Miller speaks to a public meeting of the Financial
Literacy and Education Commission, in Washington. 1430GMT also sees the
release of the October 12 week EIA Natural Gas Storage data. The last
data release scheduled will hit screens at 1430GMT, when the US October
money supply numbers are out.
EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY Wednesday at $1.3125 off earlier highs of
$1.3139. Tight range trade continued with talk of Asian sovereign and
real-money sales capping on the topside. Euro-dollar had a slow grind
throughout Asia and slipped on cross sales ahead of the Tokyo fix to
$1.3105, rate extended losses on hot money supply and flushed light
stops through $1.3100 to print lows of $1.3088. Dip demand briefly
recovered with many traders squaring positions ahead of the EU leaders
summit. On the downside stops noted on a break of $1.3080, ahead of bids
through $1.3070/65, stronger at $1.3050. Resistance seen from the Asian
high at $1.3120, a break opens techs at $1.3145 (76.4% of this year's
move $1.3486-1.2042), ahead of strong offers into $1.3150 with stops
set. Light data release in the US today with highlight being Initial
Jobless Claims released at 1230GMT.
CABLE: Closed in NY Wednesday at $1.6148, off earlier highs of $1.6179.
Broad dollar demand was seen across the board in early Asia and cable
like euro-dollar had a slow grind lower throughout the session. The rate
slipped to print lows of $1.6124 and settled in a tight range as traders
squared positions ahead of today's EU summit with officials. Bids seen
on the downside into $1.6110, a break opens technicals at
$1.6107/04/6097 (5 dma, 38.2% of $1.6309-1.5977, 12 Oct high), ahead of
more bids at $1.6080. Euro-sterling closed in NY Wednesday at stg0.8126,
the rate recovered from a pullback low of stg0.8108 after earlier
posting a high of stg0.8130. Tight trange trade continued in Asia,
before sharp cross sales pressed to stg0.8116 where the rate met support
ahead of the 200 dma (stg0.81116) and recovered to stg0.8120. Light data
release in the UK today with highlights from Retail Sales, released at
0830GMT.
DOLLAR-YEN: Dollar-yen made a clean break of Y79.00 and extended to NY
highs of Y79.05 on reports that the BOJ and government may each provide
further stimulus, the rate later eased to close at Y78.95. Dollar demand
in early Asia lifted the pair back through Y79.00 and extended to
Y79.20, strong resistance from exporters capped moves and the rate eased
to Y79.10. Tight range trade continued with the pair consolidating early
gains as traders look to a break of key tech resistance from the 200 dma
at Y79.41 for the next leg higher. Through here and strong offers seen
into Y79.50 with stops set, ahead of Y79.66 (August high). Euro-yen
surged to highs of Y103.74 on the dollar move, before paring some gains
to close in NY at Y103.60. The cross ground lower in early Asia before
lifting in tandem with dollar-yen through the Tokyo fix. Rate extended
gains to Y103.85, where the rate met resistance from the 17 Sep high and
eased to Y103.55, profit take sales also added weight. Dip demand
recovered to Y103.70 where the underlying tone remains buoyant ahead of
Europe.
JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japan's benchmark stock indices ended Thurday's
session higher, again boosted by the lower yen and China data. The
Nikkei 225 was higher by 176.31 points, or 2.00%, at 8982.86. Just ahead
of the close, the broader-based TOPIX was higher by 12.85 points at
752.64. Preliminary volume in the Nikkei stocks totalled 1.386 bn
shares, with 197 issues higher, 21 lower and 7 unchanged.
GOLD: Spot gold prices are trading marginally lower Thursday after
posting some moderate gains during the previous session. Spot gold ended
Wednesday's session $2.55 higher at $1750.15/oz with the majority of
market participants remaining on the sidelines ahead of today's EU
gathering in Brussels scheduled to last for two days. Spot gold
initially held steady this morning, with the precious metal edging
higher to $1751/oz immediately following the release of Chinese Q3 GDP
data, which showed economic growth slowed to 7.4% y/y in the third
quarter from the previous 7.6%, in line with forecasts by analysts. Spot
gold prices have remained tied to a narrow range so far this morning,
continuing to meander around $1750, with the market holding at lows of
$1748.10/oz to print a session high of $1752.10/oz. Spot gold is
currently trading $1748.90 a troy ounce, down $1.25 on the session.
OIL: November Nymex WTI futures are trading around unchanged levels
Thursday after holding steady during the previous session. November WTI
ended Wednesday's session 3 cents higher at $92.12 a barrel after
initially falling after the release of the weekly EIA report, which
showed a rise in US crude stocks last week by 2.86mln barrels higher
than market expectations of 1.7mln barrels. Prices in WTI then regained
some ground after the release of some strong US housing numbers. This
morning, WTI showed little reaction immediately following the release of
Chinese Q3 GDP data, which showed economic growth slowed to 7.4% y/y in
the third quarter from the previous 7.6%, in line with forecasts by
analysts. Prices have remained tied to a narrow trading range, picking
up from an intra-day low of $91.83 to a session high of $92.20. November
Nymex WTI futures are now seen trading $92.10 a barrel, down 2 cents on
the session.
NATURAL GAS: Nymex November natural gas prices are trading marginally
lower Thursday with the market in consolidation mode after yesterday's
gains. November natural gas futures ended Wednesday's session up 3.3
cents, or 1%, at $3.47 per million British thermal units (Btu) after
trading between $3.398 and $3.50. Natural gas prices became subject of
some modest short covering and some technical buying after slipping back
for two consecutive sessions. The National Weather Service six to ten
day outlook, issued yesterday, still called for above normal
temperatures for states east of the Rockies, with normal or below normal
readings for the West. Natural gas prices have been range bound this
morning ahead of the release of the next US Energy Information
Administration (EIA) report, due later today at 1430GMT, with prices
paring back from a session high of $3.491 to an intra-day low of $3.466.
November natural gas remains near its session low, currently trading
$3.469 per mln Btu.
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: Ireland will be the final Eurozone sovereign to
come to the T-bill market on Thursday, with plans to issue E500mln new
3-month T-bill maturing Jan 21, 2013. To recap, on Monday Netherlands
sold E1.07bln 3-month DTC at avg yield -0.037% and E1.02bln 6-month DTC
at avg yield -0.021%. In the afternoon, France sold E3.996 3-month BTF
at avg yield -0.023%, E1.197bln 6-month BTF at avg yield -0.007% and
E1.798bln 12-month BTF at avg yield 0.016%. On Tuesday Spain sold
E3.4bln 12-month Letra at avg yield 2.823% and E1.463bln 18-month Letra
at avg yield 3.022%. Greece sold E1.625bln new 13-week T-bill at avg
yield 4.24%. Belgium sold E1.503bln 3-month T-bill at avg yield -0.01%
and E1.605bln new 12-month T-bill at avg yield 0.072%. On Wednesday
Portugal allotted E250mln 3-month T-bill at avg yield 1.366%, E830mln
6-month T-bill at avg yield 1.84% and E770mln 12-month T-bill at avg
yield 2.10%.
SPAIN AUCTION PREVIEW: Spain taps its off-the-run 3-year 4.00% 2016
Bono, 4.25% 2016 Bono and 10-year benchmark 5.85% 2022 Obligaciones
issues Thursday for between E3.5bln-E4.5bln indicative size. The auction
comes amid sharp fall in Spanish yields on speculation that Spain is
poised to request a bailout via a precautionary conditioned credit line
(PCCL) and after Moody's affirmed Spain's Baa3 rating -- most in the
market expected a downgrade to at least junk status. However, Spain has
now been spared the humiliation -- just for now; as S&P & Moody's have a
negative outlook. In addition, uncertainty over potential bailout
request remains ahead of the EU leaders summit and lack of concession is
a worry. The 4.00% July 2015 Bono trades at 3.195% and was last sold on
June 9 for E1.43bln at avg yield of 3.68% and covered 1.76. The 4.25%
Oct 2016 Bono trades at 3.936% and was last sold on Sep 6 for E1.39bln
at avg yield of 4.60%, cover 1.86 times. The 5.85% 2022 Obligaciones
trades at 5.456% and was last sold on Sep 20 for E859mln at avg yield of
5.67%, cover 2.85 times. Auction results due around 0840GMT.
FRANCE BTAN AUCTION PREVIEW: The Agence France Tresor (AFT) taps its
2-year benchmark 0.75% 2014 BTAN and 5-year benchmark 1.00% 2017 BTAN
and off-the-runs 2.00% 2015 BTAN, 2.50% 2016 BTAN issues Thursday for
between E7.0bln-E8.0bln indicative size. Demand is seen underpinned by
strong reinvestment flows due on Oct 25, where redemption payment for
E20.09bln and coupon payment for E15.426bln. In addition, the flattening
of the French curve since the end of September leaves the front of the
curve looking cheap, and fact that this is the penultimate BTAN auction
for this year, given there is no December auction. Most strategists
expect most of the allocation to be skewed towards the 5-year 1.00% 2017
BTAN issue as outstanding size is small at E8.005bln. For comparison
purposes, the 2-year 2014 BTAN was last sold on Sep 20 for E3.17bln at
avg yield of 3.262%, cover 2.24 times. The 5-year 2017 BTAN was also
last sold on Sep 20 for E3.51bln at avg yield 3.895% and covered 2.04
times. The off-the-run 2015-/2016 BTANs were last sold in Jan and
therefore not comparable. Auction results are due shortly after 0900GMT.
EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- Oct 18/19 EU Leaders Summit, Brussels
- Oct 18 Spain bond auction for up to E4.5bln
- Oct 18 Italy sells BTP Italia retail bond
- Oct 18 EU Rehn to participate in ECMI annual conference, in Brussels
- Oct 19 Spain T-bill redemption for E9.02bln
- Oct 19 Greek T-bill redemption for E1.625bln
- Oct 19 Portugal T-bill redemption for E589.4mln
- Oct 21 Spain regional elections in Galicia and Basque
- Oct 22 Spanish short-selling ban ends
- Oct 22 German FinMin publishes Oct monthly report
- Oct 23 Portugal YTD budget report
- Oct 23 Spain T-bill auction (3-/6-month)
- Oct 24 ECB Draghi briefs German lawmakers on Euro-debt crisis
- Oct 26 Italy CTZ/linker auction
- Oct 26 Spain Q3 unemployment rate
... zbieraj pips do pipa bo jak nie to z depo będzie lipa... G."niemiaszek"
Jeżeli na edku H4 skończy nam się na poziomie 1.3115 lub wyżej to będziemy już po korekcie i dalej w niebo.
Chyba że przed 9 zjadą jeszcze raz do poziomu 1.3090 i zrobią nam ultrapłaskiego RGR na H1.
Ostatnio zmieniony 18 paź 2012, 08:39 przez Kundziu, łącznie zmieniany 1 raz.
Grecja - strajk generalny
IAR - Biznes
18 Paź 2012, 9:39
18.10.2012 (IAR) - W Grecji strajk generalny przeciwko planom oszczędnościowym rządu. To 20. taki protest od kiedy 2 lata temu w kraju wybuchł kryzys zadłużenia. Strajk zbiega się ze szczytem Unii Europejskiej w Brukseli, poświęconym budżetowi Wspólnoty oraz unii bankowej.
Przeciwko polityce rządu w Atenach, który w zamian za zagraniczną pomoc finansową zgodził się na przeprowadzenie ostrych cięć budżetowych, protestują między innymi greccy lekarze, nauczyciele, taksówkarze, kierowcy ciężarówek i kontrolerzy lotów. Przez kraj mają się też dziś przetoczyć demonstracje uliczne.
Rząd Grecji przygotowuje pakiet, który ma przynieść oszczędności o wartości 11,5 miliardów euro. W zamian Międzynarodowy Fundusz Walutowy, Komisja Europejska i Europejski Bank Centralny obiecały udzielić pogrążonemu w kryzysie krajowi kolejnej transzy pomocy w wysokości 31,5 miliardów euro.
