u Mighty BAZ'a - bistro caffe - nie tylko o dobrej kawie

[Ral1n]

ECB Keeps Rate at 1% as Focus Turns to Role in Greek Debt Swap
2012-02-09 12:45:34.281 GMT


(Click {Live <GO>} to watch Draghi’s press conference from 2:30 p.m. in Frankfurt, EXT4 for news on Europe’s debt crisis.)

By Jeff Black and Jana Randow
Feb. 9 (Bloomberg) -- The European Central Bank kept interest rates on hold as investors focus on the bank’s possible role in helping Greece avoid default.
ECB policy makers meeting in Frankfurt left the benchmark interest rate at a record low of 1 percent, as predicted by 55 of 57 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. At a press conference at 2:30 p.m., President Mario Draghi will be questioned on whether the ECB intends to use its Greek bonds to help the embattled nation reduce its debt.
“Markets would prefer that the ECB communicated clearly whether its Greek bond holdings will participate in the debt exchange,” said Jens Sondergaard, senior European economist at Nomura International Plc in London. “We expect Draghi to be asked on the ECB’s view, but we do not think he will be willing to provide any details.”
While the ECB has remained silent on its plans, options canvassed range from selling its Greek bonds at the discount price it paid for them to taking a loss on the Greek assets held in investment portfolios, two euro-area officials said late last week on condition of anonymity.
At stake is whether Greece can complete a private sector deal to reduce its debt by as much as 100 billion euros ($133
billion) and secure a second bailout package that will allow it to pay its bills -- key steps toward ending the debt crisis.
Draghi has been instrumental in easing the turmoil in his first 100 days in office, offering banks unlimited three-year loans and reversing the two rate hikes implemented by his predecessor, Jean-Claude Trichet.

Bank of England

The Bank of England today expanded its asset-purchase program by 50 billion pounds ($80 billion) to 325 billion pounds and left its key rate at a record-low 0.5 percent.
Greece remains center stage in Europe more than two years after it triggered the debt crisis with its ballooning debt.
Premier Lucas Papademos is struggling to unite political parties on the austerity measures needed to secure a second bailout from euro-area governments, while a deal to write off 70 percent of the value of bonds held by private investors remains to be finalized. Greece’s private creditors plan to meet in Paris today.
Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos said this morning there are still “issues outstanding” that must be resolved by the time euro-region finance ministers convene later today. That meeting is scheduled for 6 p.m. in Brussels, Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker said late yesterday, without specifying an agenda. Euro-area politicians must sign off on any Greek aid accord reached by negotiators.

Bond Purchases

The ECB has purchased 219 billion euros of debt-strapped nations’ bonds since May 2010. Between 36 billion euros and 55 billion euros are invested in Greek sovereign debt, according to estimates by Barclays Capital and UBS AG.
The ECB is considering selling those bonds to the European Financial Stability Facility at the knock-down price it paid for them, forgoing any profit, two euro-area officials said late last week. The EFSF could then pass that saving on to Greece or even take a loss on the bonds, helping to alleviate the nation’s debt load without compromising the ECB’s independence. There are still hurdles to that option, the officials said.
Another course is for euro-area central banks to give up profits or take losses on Greek bonds in their separate investment portfolios, which are not part of monetary policy operations.

Credit Crunch

So far, Draghi hasn’t signaled any ECB involvement in a Greek restructuring. Instead, the ECB has focused on warding off a looming credit crunch and encouraging lenders to re-enter sovereign debt markets.
On Dec. 21, it allotted a record 489 billion euros in three-year loans to banks, the first of two such operations. In the run-up to the second offering on Feb. 28, the central bank is finalizing a further broadening of the pool of collateral banks can use to obtain the cash.
“The ECB is doing more,” said Marchel Alexandrovich, senior European economist at Jefferies International Ltd. in London. “Six months ago we basically had the ECB fighting behind the scenes with the politicians, there was a lot of uncertainty. Now, while Greece is still an issue, they seem to be moving roughly in the same direction.”

Fiscal Accord

European leaders have taken up Draghi’s idea of a “fiscal compact,” agreeing to a treaty that will speed sanctions on high-deficit states and require euro countries to anchor balanced-budget rules in national law.
There are signs that Draghi’s strategy is paying off.
Bloomberg indexes of Europe’s banks and financial conditions are the highest since August, and money-market lending rates and bond yields from Italy to Spain are sliding.
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA is selling senior, unsecured bonds in the first benchmark offering of the debt from a Spanish bank since October. Intesa Sanpaolo SpA, Italy’s second-biggest bank, sold senior, unsecured bonds last month, and Commerzbank AG, Credit Agricole SA and Allianz SE are also planning to issue unsecured debt.
Intesa Chief Executive Officer Enrico Tommaso Cucchiani said this week that some of the money from the ECB’s three-year tender will be used to buy Italian government bonds.
“If the euro crisis is kept under control, the chances of economic growth returning in the third quarter for the euro zone as a whole are good,” said Christian Schulz, an economist at Berenberg Bank in London.
It remains unclear exactly how big Europe’s permanent financial backstop will be, leaving the ECB exposed in the event of a Greek default, said Nick Kounis, head of macro research at ABN Amro in Amsterdam.
“The lack of a firewall is what ultimately creates pressure for extra responsibility for the ECB,” Kounis said.
“If the talks in Athens fail, then they may have to deal with a re-escalation of the whole crisis spiral that we saw last year.”

For Related News and Information:
European crisis monitor: CRISIS <GO>
Sovereign credit ratings: CSDR <GO>
Credit-default swaps: GCDS <GO>
Greece/Germany 10-year spread:
GDBR10 Index GGGB10YR Index HS D <GO>
Rescue programs: RESQ <GO>
European Union news: NI EU BN <GO>

--Editors: Matthew Brockett, Simone Meier

To contact the reporters on this story:
Jeff Black in Frankfurt at +49-69-92041-205 or jblack25@bloomberg.net; Jana Randow in Frankfurt at +49-69-92041-206 or jrandow@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Craig Stirling at +44-20-7673-2841 or
cstirling1@bloomberg.net

[259]

Ja bym proponował dać sobie spokój z Bloombergiem.
Nie dość, że rzadko im się zdarza napisać coś interesującego (chyba najrzadziej ze wszystkich), nie dość, że celują oni w dobieraniu faktów do teorii to jeszcze chyba płacą im za każdą linijkę więc te ich wypociny są długie jak papier toaletowy...
To co tutaj napisali można streścić w kilku słowach.
A poza tym, o ile dobrze się orientuję, konferencja Draghi jeszcze się nawet nie zaczęła więc w ogóle nie ma o czym pisać…

[259]

O ile dobrze pamiętam, około 16% całkowitego popytu na złoto jest generowane przez inwestycje/spekulacje. I o ile dobrze pamiętam następne ponad 50% tego popytu to biżuteria i jakieś następne kilkanaście przemysł. Reszta jest zamurowana w sejfach banków centralnych.
A teraz zobaczcie co dżin wygrzebał na ten temat u Morgan Stanley:
http://www.uncommonwisdomdaily.com/the- ... 3?FIELD9=2

Jak doda się to tego chińczyków kupujących po gram miesięcznie to ja nie za bardzo widzę $1400 i niżej. Chyba że świat się nagle odmieni i faktyczna wartość dolara podskoczy ze 30-40% - nie wiem co takiego mogłoby się stać...

[Stforex]

Auction upcoming with bonds at highest since Oct
Written by Adam Button
February 9, 2012 at 17:55 GMT
The US is selling $16B in 30-year bonds at the top of the hour. The market is expecting a yield of 3.23% and benchmark 30s are at the highest since Oct. 31.
I wrote about buying USD/JPY on rising US yields on Tuesday. Since then, US 10s have risen to 2.06% from 1.98% and USD/JPY is up 80 pips.
An unexpectedly high yield here would help push dollar-yen even higher.

Przyuważyliście może tę informację?

A nawiasem, wygląda na to, że świat finansów zakłada, że USA będą za 30 lat wypłacalne . Czyli nie jest tak źle, jak myślałem...

[259]

Jakoś nie widzę jakiś zmian związanych z tą aukcją.
Jedyne wyraźne co widzę to jen lecący na twarz, ale już mniej więcej od 15:00 naszego czasu. Chyba na fali tego niby dealu w Grecji.
Poza tym nihil novi - płaski dzień.

[Mighty Baz]

na edku mamy syg down od m15-m30-h1 do 1.3201-1.3198

EUR/USD intraday: the upside prevails.
Pivot: 1.3205.
Our Preference: LONG positions above 1.3205 with 1.3325 & 1.3355 as next targets.
Alternative scenario: The downside penetration of 1.3205 will call for 1.3165 & 1.3095.
Comment: the pair is pulling back on its new support ahead of further advance.



USD/CAD intraday: under pressure.
Pivot: 0.9985
Our preference: Short positions below 0.9985 with targets @ 0.9925 & 0.99 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 0.9985 look for further upside with 1 & 1.003 as targets.
Comment: the pair is posting a rebound but stands below its resistance.



USD/JPY intraday: further advance.
Pivot: 77.25.
Our Preference: LONG positions above 77.25 with targets @ 77.75 & 78.
Alternative scenario: The downside penetration of 77.25 will call for a slide towards 76.9 & 76.7.
Comment: the pair stands above its new support and remains on the upside.



AUD/USD intraday: under pressure.
Pivot: 1.076
Our preference: Short positions below 1.076 with targets @ 1.0675 & 1.0645 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.076 look for further upside with 1.079 & 1.0825 as targets.
Comment: the pair has broken below its support and remains on the downside.



GBP/USD intraday: caution.
Pivot: 1.5775.
Our Preference: LONG positions above 1.5775 with targets @ 1.585 & 1.5885.
Alternative scenario: The downside penetration of 1.5775 will call for 1.5745 & 1.573.
Comment: the pair is pulling back on its support, caution.



EUR/JPY intraday: the upside prevails.
Pivot: 102.1
Our preference: Long positions above 102.1 with targets @ 103.25 & 103.6 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 102.1 look for further downside with 101.6 & 100.95 as targets.
Comment: the pair has rebounded on its new support and remains on the upside.

[259]

Ciekawe, EURUSR bullish bias, AUDUSD short...
Opcja 1.33 nadal w grze.
Jak na razie nadal pachnie mi to grą w paśmie 1.322-1.33 - ulubiona zabawa banków azjatyckich i środkowo-wschodnich.

Źle się dzieje w państwie Szwajcarskim, zabrakło skrzynek depozytowych, ludzie śpią na poduszkach wypchanych pieniędzmi żeby nie traciły na wartości w bankach: http://brucekrasting.blogspot.com.au/20 ... notes.html

[Mighty Baz]

złoto praktycznie stoi w miejscu, a powinno spadac 1.683? Syg z D1

[Stforex]

Kabel i kangur przeszły u mnie w nocy na czerwoną stronę mocy (na interwale H1). Zestawiając to z sygnałem odwrócenia na D1 (kabel) oraz sporą ilością miejsca na spadku u kangura, może to oznaczać odwrócenie ostatnich trendów wzrostowych.

EU, EJ na H1 nadal UP, na D1 strefa możliwego odbicia down.

Złoto H1 presja sygnały down. Kluczowy poziom $1727 - parokrotnie atakowany.
Pierwszy target $1715
Poziom $1680 jeszcze aktualny, ale coraz mniej prawdopodobny (patrząc na dzienny zasięg).

Indeks dolara na poziomie możliwego odbicia UP.

Ponieważ dziś piątek, spodziewałbym się realizacji zysków, natomiast w poniedziałek decyzji co do dalszego ruchu.

Poziomy H1kabel:
1.5800-20 podaż + sygnały down
1.5774 cena o 08:25 PL
1.5730-50 popyt

Support (na H1) dla Edka na 1.3200 w tym sygnały up. Trochę na przekór reszcie

[Mighty Baz]

Support (na H1) dla Edka na 1.3200 w tym sygnały up. Trochę na przekór reszcie

ma uzasadnienie bo nadal obowiazuje ruch z D1 do 1.342