I'd like to start with an currency pair which is not an part of mainstream trading portfolio
But as I'm polish and quite big chunk of my savings is kept in USD I'm quite interested in that pair, it's also perfectly fine to trade if Your brokerage offers an reasonable spread and swap values.
Most of the time I'm an intraday trader focused on smaller time frames but I always try to analysisevery traded pair starting from the bigger picture and then going down to smaller time frames.
That's not an intraday analysis
USD/PLN
Let's start with an monthly chart with just few simple supply and demands zones + currently respected downtrend trendline. At the moment we had an lowest weekly close since 2011 autumn, what's important for any pullback here is that the demand zone is still not taken out and we managed to get an close above psychological 3.0 level. As long as this zone and 3.0 level is not broken with an daily close below I"m willing to buy here, stop loss used would depend on Your trading method and mm used. I'd prefer to start small and add more longs if ( which is not likely in my opinion ) price will visit demand zone 2.
Targets which are realistic should be 3.25, 3.34 and 3.5 in extension with biggest parts cashed at 3,25 and 3,34 levels and some leftowers left running.
From the fundamental point of view it's important to note that this pair was driven mostly by the dollar weakness, another thing worth to consider here is that from the Polish central bank zloty strenght is not an bad thing at the end of the year as it makes the public debt in foreign currency ( especialy in euro) looks better.
Daily chart ~ 27.12.2013 that's last daily candle, that's also last friday of the year and we've seen $ weakness all over the markets this day, but it was rejected quite fast on most pairs.
Last daily candle looks promising for an pullback from round 3.0 level as it closed above and looks like an bullish pin bar. There are few bumps on the way up if starts here.
First one is the 3,08 level presented with the pink line on the char above, that level was quite an heavy support in last weeks and should work as an ressistance now.
Next thing to consider is obviously the red trend line and then yellow supply zone which was an support zone earlier this year and worked as an ressistance in last 2 months.
Then comes my first target, second yellow supply zone where buy trade from current levels should be cashed at least in 50-60% of it's orginal size.
H4 chart
There's not much to add here, not an single H4 candle closed below 3.0 level which is quite good sign for any possible pullback. First bump on the way up would be the blue line which was support of last week range, then the green line comes to play which was that same range ressistance.
There's not much floor below 3.0 zone on smaller time frames if that level is taken out.
Mam nadzieje, że język angielski nie łamie regulaminu forum
Tak naprawdę wiele się nie zmieniło w długim horyzoncie, zaliczyliśmy pierwszą żółtą strefę na dziennym wykresie, aktualny poziom jest decydujący dla dalszych wzrostów, stąd jest szansa na kolejny ruch w okolice 3,25 ~
