Z nedzy do pieniedzy ..:)

[andy11]

znieczulenie przestanie dzialac, wezmiesz piguly przeciwbolowe i bedzie po krzyku

[Adrianoforex]

najgorsze jest chyba to, że na tym znieczuleniu pierwszy raz w życiu podejmę decyzję o transakcji na GBP/USD

[andy11]

najgorsze jest chyba to, że na tym znieczuleniu pierwszy raz w życiu podejmę decyzję o transakcji na GBP/USD

aud/usd-bylo w konsoli
0.8962 gora
0,8908 dol

wybilo dzisiaj dolem robiac dolek 0.8882
i teraz powrocila cena do 0.8908
i zobaczymy co dalej..

[andy11]

$100 billion QE, dollar/yen at 80 and other ‘outrageous predictions’ from Saxo Bank

Here are the 10 outrageous predictions for 2014. Though to be honest, some (a descent to earth for some P/E-rich tech stocks like Amazon??) don’t seem all that far-fetched.

1. EU wealth tax heralds return to Soviet-style economy — Responding to a lack of growth and deflation fears, the EU Commission will in panic impose a wealth tax on anyone holding more than 100,000 euros ($163,290) in savings. The move will be done in the name of removing inequality and for the richest Europeans to pay a fairer share to ease the society’s burden.

2. Anti-EU alliance to become largest group in parliament — European parliamentary elections will be conducted across Europe from May 22 to May 25 next year and the anti-EU spirit rising in several countries is likely to be a dominant theme. A pan-European, anti-EU alliance with members from the U.K. Independence Party, euro-skeptic Alternative for Germany, the National Front in France and Party of Freedom in the Netherlands will become the largest group after the elections with a majority of more than 275 seats in parliament.

The new European Parliament will choose an anti-EU chairman, likely to send Europe back into political and economic turmoil. How to trade this scenario? Go long German bunds and short Spanish bonos — we could be looking at a 300 basis-point spread again between bonds in the two countries.

3. U.S. tech giants wake up to nasty hangover — The U.S. information technology sector is trading about 15% below the current S&P 500 SPX valuation , but a small group of the heavyweights trade at a premium of about a whopping 700% above market valuation. That group — dubbed the “Fat Five” by Saxo Bank — consists of Amazon AMZN , Netflix NFLX , Twitter TWTR , Pandora Media P and Yelp YELP . The Fat Five presents a new bubble, says Saxo.

4. Dollar/yen drops below 80 and triggers BOJ to delete government debt — As the global recovery runs out of steam investors are forced back into the yen, sending the dollar/yen USDJPY below 80 from just under 103 yen currently. In desperation, the Bank of Japan deletes its government-debt securities in efforts to escape the inflation trap, which would mean about 15% of government debt would disappear. Saxo Bank calls it a simple “accounting trick that effectively equates to ‘now you see it, now you don’t.’”

5. U.S. deflation to top FOMC agenda — Recent economic indicators may suggest the U.S. economy is getting stronger, but the housing market remains fragile and wage growth seems to be non-existent. Couple that with lawmakers setting the stage for Act II of the debt ceiling discussions in early 2014 and financial instability and lower confidence indicators could easily rattle the markets again. This will push inflation down and deflation will again top the agenda at the Federal Open Market Committee. How to trade this? Saxo Bank says go long on 10-year U.S. government bonds 10_YEAR .

6. Fed turns QE into 100% mortgage buys — Risky assets such as equities may be flirting with all-time highs, but grave challenges remain in the U.S. housing market. In response to that, the FOMC will go all-in on mortgages in 2014 and change the composition of QE3 to be a 100% mortgage bond-buying program. Also forget about tapering – within this move, the Fed will increase the scope of the program to more than $100 billion a month.

7. Brent crude drops to $80 a barrel — Rising oil production from non-conventional methods and an increase in Saudi Arabian output will change the global oil market, and hedge funds will start to build short positions in the market. This will drive the price of Brent crude UK:LCOG4 to $80 a barrel from the current level of about $110.

8. Powerhouse Germany slips into recession — Anyone expecting solid growth in Germany in 2014 will be deeply disappointed. Europe’s largest economy has outperformed the rest of the euro area in recent years, but this could soon be swapped for recession. A coordinated plan by the U.S. and other key economies to reduce Germany’s excessive trade surplus cannot be ruled out, and a China focused more on domestic consumption could also hit the Germans.

9. France’s CAC 40 index drops 40% — The woes in France only deepen in 2014, under the “mismanagement” of the Francois Hollande government as it fails to properly address the country’s lack of competitiveness and to spur economic growth. Housing prices never really corrected after the financial crisis and they are likely to dive again in 2014, which will hurt confidence and consumption. As investors head for “la sortie,” the CAC 40 index FR:PX1 will fall 40% from its 2013 highs.

10. “Fragile Five” currencies fall 25% against U.S. dollar — Tapering, or just the anticipation of tapering, will lead to higher marginal costs of capital, leaving countries with expanding current-account deficits exposed to lower risk appetite from global investors. That could force a move lower in those countries’ currencies, especially against the U.S. dollar. The “Fragile Five” countries that are at high risk include Brazil, India, South Africa, Indonesia and Turkey.

[Adrianoforex]

To o co im tam chodzi? Bo jak tłumacz google mi przetłumaczy to zajmę pewnie pozycję odwrotną niż powinienem.

[andy11]

To o co im tam chodzi? Bo jak tłumacz google mi przetłumaczy to zajmę pewnie pozycję odwrotną niż powinienem.

to jest prognoza Saxo Bank na 2014 no i przedstawili to w 10pkt

ktorego nie rozumiesz..

[andy11]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Veni]

Cześć Andy,
mam pytanie, jaką literaturę polecasz odnośnie analizy fundamentalnej?

Chce złapać szerszą perspektywę na rynki finansowe, nie musi to być tylko rynek walutowy.

P.S. duch piszę

[Midas]

Ja też mam pytanko.. Bo jak są dane (np bezrobocie w stanach) to od razu cena robi ruch przeważnie, za to jak ktoś mówi - tzn jest konferencja to cena od razu nie zaczyna świrować. Czy to trzeba śledzić co oni mówią (jeśli tak to gdzie?) czy dopiero na koniec konferencji zaczyna się ruch (Jakoś nie znalazłem info ile trwają te konferencje) ?

Andy co myślisz o Eur/Aud? Jest mocny trend up, gdzie widisz najbliższe przystanki? Jak patrzę na wykres to 1.57 wydaje się najbliższym przystankiem - dołki na weekly + okrągła liczba.

No i Usd/jpy.. Zaczęli w dół spadać (mam SR mocny na 103.13). Uważasz, że to korekta tylko mała będzie czy może podwójny szczyt i zobaczymy dłuższy ruch w dół?

Pozdrawiam, Midas

[andy11]

witam Veni...
analiza fundamentalna jest bardzo szerokim pojeciem i nie da sie tego pojac w 3sekundy....(poltyka fiskalna,monetarna, klimat ekonomiczny,zdarzenia polityczne,etc...) powinnes zaczac od microekonomi i makroekonomi aby zrozumiec cala game wskaznikow...
co do literatury to jest jej cale mnostwo i musisz dopasowac do swoich potrzeb..
mozesz zaczac od tych pozycji:

1)Analiza fundamentalna - Ritchie John C.
2)Analiza fundamentalna rynkow terminowych - Jack Schwager
3)EKONOMIA - Paul A. Samuelson, William D. Nordhaus
4)Wskazniki ekonomiczne. Przewodnik dla inwestora - Yamarone Richard
5)Ekonomia dla inwestorow gieldowych - Lee Tim
6)Nowy paradygmat rynkow finansowych - George Soros