1. W wątku DT omawiamy bieżąca sytuacje na rynku i to co dotyczy danego dnia. Od dłuższych prognoz jest dział Prognozy, komentarze, analizy
2. Zamieszczamy tylko i wyłącznie swoje analizy. Nie kopiujemy z innych serwisów.
3. Komentarz do własnej analizy nie może mieć charakteru rekomendacji. (to nie jest dział z sygnałami)
4. Kłótnie, ataki na innych użytkowników są niedopuszczalne.
5. Nie zaśmiecamy wątku. (wypowiedzi w stylu: "dałem S", "ja kończę na dziś" itp. jak i chwalenie się swoimi statami)
Nagminne łamanie powyższych zasad będzie skutkować nałozeniem zakazu pisania do końca bieżącego tygodnia.
Recydywa będzie karana ostrzeżeniami.
Przypominam że ponadto obowiązuje Regulamin Forum
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Przedstawione poglądy, oceny, opinie i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów
autorów i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji do nabycia lub zbycia albo
powstrzymania się od dokonania transakcji w odniesieniu do jakichkolwiek walut.
Poglądy te jak i inne treści nie stanowią "rekomendacji" lub "doradztwa"
w rozumieniu ustawy z dnia 29 lipca 2005 o obrocie instrumentami finansowymi.
Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte lub zaniechane
na podstawie poniższych analiz ponosi inwestor.
EURO SUMMARY: Euro-dollar started the week at $1.3706 in Asia morning, early
euro-yen cross buying pushed the pair to session high of $1.3721 before
retreating to session low of $1.3701 and retrace to $1.3705 last. Rally in
Japanese stocks and strong China trade balance/exports data kept yen crosses
elevated with euro-yen hit 5-year high of Y141.55 forcing the euro to hit
session high. But good selling interest in dollar-yen and profit taking capped
dollar-yen and euro-yen's uptick. Real money offers at $1.3710/12 were filled in
early trade but further offers at $1.3730/40/50 capped the euro's advance with
stops above $1.3765. The euro breached NY's high of $1.3706 and trades near the
upper Bollinger band at $1.3709 in fairly tight range Asia market as the yen
crosses play dominated in Asia before Europe steps in.
09-Dec-2013 7:02
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Look To Hold Above $1.3700
RES 4: $1.3832 High Oct 28
RES 3: $1.3812 Weekly Bollinger band top
RES 2: $1.3793 High Oct 23
RES 1: $1.3742 Low Oct 23
LATEST PRICE: $1.3706
SUP 1: $1.3681 Reversal high Apr 2007
SUP 2: $1.3637/42 Daily Ichimoku top, Channel base
SUP 3: $1.3598 High Oct 14
SUP 4: $1.3572 55-day moving average
COMMENTARY: Euro-dollar continues to squeeze higher despite overbought daily
studies as bulls climb further into rising channel to test above daily Bolli top
at $1.3710 to an hourly high at $1.3726. Weekly studies may turn higher also and
resistance is a little thin above $1.3700 and seen around $1.3742 - Oct 23 low.
A break above could see rise to retest Oct 28 reversal high at $1.3832, however
studies are near overbought and bears look to retest channel base at $1.3642.
EURO-DOLLAR: MNI Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals),
$1.3830/35 Strong offers/$1.3833 61.8% $1.4940 May'11-1.2042 Jul'12/Oct25 high
$1.3810/20 Medium offers
$1.3800 Medium offers on approach/Stops
$1.3780/85 Medium offers
$1.3770 Medium offers/Stops
$1.3755 Stops
$1.3750 Strong offers/Barrier
$1.3747 Int.Day high Asia (posted early Wellington)
$1.3703 ***Current mkt rate 0630GMT Monday
$1.3697 Int.Day low Europe, Asia $1.3700
$1.3685/80 Medium demand
$1.3670 Medium demand/$1.3669 $1.3620-1.3747
$1.3650 Medium demand
$1.3637 Cloud top
$1.3620 Initial NFP react low/Strong demand
STERLING SUMMARY: Cable closed Friday in NY at $1.6349 after rate had recovered
off initial NFP react lows of $1.6294 to $1.6393, dipping back to $1.6318 before
recovering into the close. Into early NZ trade Monday and rate popped up to
$1.6353, the move taking its lead from an early spike higher in euro-dollar. As
euro-dollar's early move reversed so cable eased lower, the rate trading to
overnight session lows of $1.6316 before it steadily stepped its way back to
$1.6354 through the balance of the session. Rate was trading around $1.6348 into
the Europe open. Cable's recovery Friday was tempered by euro-sterling tracking
the euro's stronger rally, the cross pushing up to stg0.8390, with early Europe
reflecting the stronger upside open in euro-dollar as it extended the move to
stg0.8395 before turning lower and pressing back to stg0.83825 into Europe. A
data light day in the UK with moves to come from continued analyst fallout from
Friday's strong NFP and its possible effects on the US taper timetable. Cable
offers seen placed between $1.6350/60, a break to open a move on toward
$1.6375/80 ahead of $1.6400. Support remains at $1.6320/15 ahead of
$1.6300-1.6290.
09-Dec-2013 7:10
CABLE TECHS: 23.6% Key Support At $1.6304
RES 4: $1.6491/96 Daily Bolli band top, High June 2011
RES 3: $1.6443 High Dec 2
RES 2: $1.6399/04 Nov 13 support line, High Dec 4
RES 1: $1.6361 5-day moving average
LATEST PRICE: $1.6347
SUP 1: $1.6301/04 Low Dec 5, 23.6% of $1.5855-1.6443
SUP 2: $1.6260 High Oct 1
SUP 3: $1.6211/18 21-DMA, 38.2% of $1.5855-1.6443
SUP 4: $1.6200 High Nov 21
COMMENTARY: Cable still holds above initial support - seen at $1.6301/04, the
Dec 5 low and 23.6% of $1.5855-1.6443. Studies are overbought and mostly bearish
and bears will aim to break below this level to test support just above $1.6200
- the 21-DMA and 38.2% are at $1.6211/18. Bulls will aim to retest the Nov 7
support line at $1.6399 but failure here could start a slide to the July support
line seen around $1.6075 and below here targets the Nov 12 low at $1.5855.
CABLE: MNI Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals),
$1.6450 Strong offers on approach/Barrier/Stops
$1.6437-43 Dec3-Dec2 highs
$1.6410 Stops
$1.6390/405 Strong offers/$1.6393 Dec6, $1.6405-03 Dec4-5 highs
$1.6370/75 Medium offers/$1.6375 76.4% $1.6393-1.6316
$1.6361 Int.Day high Europe, Asia $1.6353
$1.6357 ***Current market rate 0717GMT Monday
$1.6316 Int.Day low Asia/$1.6317 76.4% $1.6294-1.6393
$1.6300/290 Medium demand/$1.6294 Dec6 NFP react low
$1.6275/70 Medium demand/Large stops $1.6270
$1.6260/50 Strong demand
$1.6240 Medium demand/Stops
$1.6220 Medium demand/Large stops
$1.6198 Nov27 low
EURO-STERLING: MNI Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
stg0.8500 Strong offers
stg0.8475/80 Medium offers on approach/stg0.8476 61.8% stg0.8585-0.8300
stg0.8464 Weds Nov13 high (seen in Asia)
stg0.8440 Medium offers
stg0.8415/20 Strong offers/stg0.8414 76.4% stg0.8464-0.8252/Stops
stg0.8395/400 Medium offers
stg0.8395 Int.Day high Asia (NY Fri stg0.8390)
stg0.8376 ***Current market rate 0726GMT Monday
stg0.83755 Int.Day low Europe, Asia stg0.8384
stg0.8348 Friday Dec6 low
stg0.8330/20 Strong demand/Stops
stg0.8300/290 Medium demand
stg0.8274 Dec4 low
stg0.8260/50 Strong demand/stg0.8258 Dec3 low/stg0.8252 Dec2 low
stg0.8250 Option barrier/Strong demand ahead
YEN SUMMARY: Dollar-yen dipped to session low of Y102.92 after starting the week
at Y103.02 in Asia morning, dollar bulls brought it to session high of Y103.23
before Japan's 3Q final GDP & trade data was released and it drifted down to
session low of Y102.89 in late Asia morning before rebounding to Y102.99 last.
Dollar bulls cleared offers at Y102.95/00, breaching NY's high of Y102.97 but
further offers at Y103.20/25 capped the pair's advance and bulls took some
profits albeit weaker-than-expected data. Euro-yen tracked dollar-yen's movement
as it edged up to hit fresh 5-year high/session high of Y141.55 before
retreating to session low of Y140.69 and rebounds to Y141.15 last. Dollar-yen's
strength built on last Friday's strong NFP numbers and strong rally in Japanese
stocks as it gapped higher on Asia opening, the Nikkei rising 1.93% last. The
yen crosses remain biddish amid stronger dollar-yen and higher equities. Strong
China trade balance & exports boosted aussie and Asian stocks as well, lifting
yen crosses higher.
09-Dec-2013 7:28
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bulls Eye Above Y103.38 Dec 3 High
RES 4: Y104.29 3% 21-day MA envelope top
RES 3: Y104.10 Rising channel top
RES 2: Y103.78 Daily Bolli top
RES 1: Y103.38 High Dec 3
LATEST PRICE: Y103.08
SUP 1: Y102.28 Daily Tenkan line
SUP 2: Y102.02 23.6% of Y97.62-103.38
SUP 3: Y101.53/64 Reversal high Jul 8, Low Dec 6
SUP 4: Y101.18/25 38.2% of Y97.62-103.38, 21-DMA
COMMENTARY: Dollar-yen bursts back into rising channel to trade just below Dec 3
high at Y103.38 which bulls surely aim to retest today. Weekly studies stretch
further into overbought territory and a break above Y103.38 targets a test of
the Y103.74 reversal high from May 22. However, failure to retest Y103.38 would
add risk lower once more - bears would need to break below the lows of Dec 5 and
6 at Y101.63/64, respectively, but ahead of her is daily Tenkan at Y102.28.
DOLLAR-YEN: MNI Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
Y104.00/10 Medium offers/Stops
Y103.80 Strong offers on approach
Y103.60 Medium offers/Stops
Y103.50 Strong Offers on approach/Barrier
Y103.38 Dec3 high
Y103.23 Int.Day high Asia (NY Fri Y102.97)
Y103.02 ***Current market rate 0739GMT Monday
Y102.90/80 Medium demand
Y102.53 5-DMA
Y102.45 Int.Day lows Asia
Y102.20/10 Area of lows Friday Dec6
Y101.62 Dec5 low
Y101.50 Strong demand/Stops
Y101.20-00 Strong demand/Stops
JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japanese stock indices ended Monday higher. The Nikkei 225
gained 350.35 points, or 2.29, to stand at 15,650.21. The broader-based TOPIX
was higher by 17.03 points at 1252.86. Nikkei market breadth saw 211 issues
trade higher, 11 lower and 3 unchanged. Total volume was 1.088 billion.
09-Dec-2013 7:40
EURO-YEN TECHS: Breaks Above Y141.00 Despite O/B Studies
RES 4: Y143.24 Potential measured move target
RES 3: Y142.65 4% 21-DMA envelope top
RES 2: Y142.03 Daily Bollinger band top
RES 1: Y141.55 Hourly high
LATEST PRICE: Y141.17
SUP 1: Y140.69 Hourly low
SUP 2: Y140.03 High Dec 3
SUP 3: Y139.42/43 Daily Tenkan, Feb 2005 high
SUP 4: Y139.11 23.6% of Y131.22-141.55
COMMENTARY: Euro-yen storms higher to break above Y140.00 level and leave a new
recent high at Y141.55 which is also initial resistance. Daily studies are
overbought but trade sideways while weekly studies also look O/B. A break above
Y141.55 threatens daily Bolli top at Y142.03 and a close above rising channel
could start a measured move to Y143.24. However, overbought studies caution
bulls and bears aim to back below Y140.00 level to test daily Tenkan at Y139.42.
EURO-YEN: MNI Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
Y143.00 Strong offers on approach
Y142.50/65 Medium offers
Y142.00/10 Medium offers
Y141.55 Int.Day high Asia (fresh 2013 high)
Y141.12 ***Current market price 0747GMT Monday
Y141.00 Int.Day low Asia
Y140.70 Medium demand
Y140.10/00 Medium demand/Y139.97 5-DMA
Y139.50/40 Medium demand
Y139.10/00 Medium demand
Y138.50/40 Strong demand/Y138.47 Dec5 low/Stops
AUSSIE: MNI Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
$0.9200 Strong offers, stops
$0.9180 Medium offers, stops
$0.9165/70 Strong offers/$0.9168-69 Dec2 high
$0.9150 Medium offers, light stops ($0.9146 - 3 Dec high)
$0.9145 Int.Day high Asia
$0.9085 ***Current market price 0755GMT Friday
$0.9073 Int.Day low Europe, Asia $0.9096
$0.9070/65 Medium demand
$0.9050 Medium demand/61.8% $0.8989-0.9145
$0.9035/30 Medium demand
$0.8989 Fri Dec6 low (NFP react)
$0.8980 Strong demand/Large stops
$0.8972 Sep3 low
$0.8950 Strong demand on approach/Barrier/Stops
g/u h1
aktualnie znajdujemy się pod FE 76,4, które również w piątek okazało się być skuteczną barierą dla wzrostów, spadek po publikacji NFP zatrzymał się na LT wzrostowego, z kolei górą widać linię spadkową, która razem z poprzednią tworzą klin w któym pozostaje coraz mniej miejsca. https://www.tradingview.com/x/5vZwfq90/
Fakt, że meduza przeżyła 650 milionów lat bez mózgu daje nadzieję wielu ludziom...
