Hello
EUROPE: Thursday's calendar gets underway at 0600GMT, with the release of the
German March final HICP data. Also of note, the Eurogroup finance ministers are
set to meet in Dublin. At 0630GMT, the Indonesian Bank Indonesia policy decision
is expected. Further final inflation data is expected at 0645GMT, with the
release of the French March HICP numbers. At 0800GMT, the ECB published its
latest monthly report, although it isn't expected to vary much from the press
release at the monthly press briefing. Also at 0800GMT, the IEA March monthly
oil market report will cross the wires.
EUROPE: The FT notes Spanish bond yield shave fallen to the lowest levels in
almost 2-1/2 years, as the ripple effects of the BOJ easing boost peripheral
bond markets.
EUROZONE: In a move last seen during the Asian Financial crisis in 1997-98,
Cyprus plans to sell gold worth E400 mln from its reserves to contribute to
international bailout, The Financial Times reports. The report quotes a draft
bailout document seen by the paper which said: "The Cypriot authorities have
committed to sell the excess amount of gold reserves owned by the Republic."
GERMAN PRESS: The average German is not as rich as his/her public image
suggests, a FAZ analysis says. According to a study by the ECB, Germans are only
half as affluent as Greeks. This in itself is not scandalous, the paper notes,
but the fact that the ECB has withheld this data until the Cyprus deal had been
closed is. This shows how much the ECB has become a political actor in the
crisis, the paper argues.
EU COMMISSION: While the Bank of England's current loose monetary stance is
appropriate in the context of weak demand, the EU Commission warned Wednesday
that this should not be at the expense of allowing the UK's significant economic
imbalances to fester. The Commission said there are indications that low rates
are keeping less-than-viable firms operating. "Loose monetary policy is
appropriate in a context of weak domestic and external demand, but this should
not be at the cost of allowing existing
imbalances to remain unresolved indefinitely," the Commission warned in its
"In-Depth Review" of imbalances in 13 EU member states.
UK PRESS: The FT says the pressure is growing on Cypriot central bank governor
Demetriades, as he faces growing calls to resign following the island's banking
crisis.
UK PRESS: Global PC shipments fell 14% in the first three months of the year,
research show, the Independent reports, as consumers move towards tablets and
away from the latest Microsoft operating system.
EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY at $1.3073 after rate had recovered off corrective
pullback lows of $1.3053, having seen extended highs of $1.3122 earlier in the
session. Rate came under further pressure in early Asia as Japanese exporters
leaned into euro-yen, the sales taking euro-dollar to extended lows of $1.3044.
Rate recovered to $1.3059, dipped to $1.3048 before picking up stronger demand
interest which lifted it on to $1.3067 ahead of the European open. Yen plays
continue to determine direction.
German and French inflation due at 0600GMT and
0645GMT respectively, with the ECB Monthly Report to follow at 0800GMT, though
these events not normally market moving. Attention will be on US weekly jobless
claims at 1230GMT. The recent euro bullish tone, mainly driven by euro-yen
demand, appears to have faded, though a break of Y100.00 in dollar-yen may spark
another round of euro-yen buys. Euro-dollar Demand now seen into $1.3040 with
stops below, a break to open a deeper move toward $1.3020 ahead of
$1.3005-1.2990, though stops are seen mixed in on break of $1.2900. Resistance
noted at $1.3070/80 ahead of stronger interest between $1.3100/10, stops on a
break of $1.3120.
EURO-DOLLAR: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
$1.3160 Stops
$1.3150 Strong offers on approach
$1.3147-50 Tech 55-dma, 100-dma
$1.3130/40 Medium offers
$1.3122 Wednesday Apr10 high/Stops
$1.3114 38.2% $1.3711-1.2745, broken but some may still reference
$1.3100/10 Medium offers
$1.3078 Int.Day high Europe, Asia $1.3073
$1.3073 ***Current mkt rate 0629GMT Thursday
$1.3043 Int.Day low Asia
$1.3040 Medium demand on approach/Stops
$1.3020 Medium demand/$1.3021 40-dma
$1.3005/990 Medium demand/$1.2993 NY pullback low Monday/$1.2900 Stops
$1.2980 Strong demand
CABLE: Closed in NY at $1.5328 after rate had managed to recover off lows of
$1.5294 to an eventual high of $1.5334 ahead of the close. Yen crosses were sold
back in early Asia, led by euro-yen, which in turn, via sterling-yen, pressed
cable back to $1.5319. Buyer emerged into the dip, the demand allowing rate to
climb back through the session to $1.5333 ahead of Europe. Euro-sterling
extended its recovery (off recent lows of stg0.8507) to retest recent highs at
stg0.8560 Wednesday, but again met decent supply at this level. The rate was
pressed back to stg0.8519 in NY ahead of the close at stg0.8527, with euro
crosses again under pressure in Asia which saw rate extend move to stg0.8513
before buyers emerged into the dip to correct rate back to the NY closing level.
A very light UK calendar will leave sterling to take direction from yen flows,
with US weekly jobless claims at 1230GMT the stand out data. Cable support seen
at $1.5320 with stronger interest noted into $1.5290 with stops below.
Resistance $1.5330/34, but stronger sell interest remains in place close behind
at $1.5340/50.
YEN: Dollar-yen extended recent highs to Y99.88 in late NY trade but moves
toward the Y100.00 were again thwarted by stiff resistance. Rate dipped back to
test the broken resistance at Y99.74 in early Tokyo (50% Y124.14-75.35),
managing to find demand that lifted it back to Y99.86. However, this move was
met by exporter outright and macro sales which pressed the rate back to eventual
lows of Y99.36, aided by reports of Asian institutional sales from the Y99.70
level. The dip again attracted buyers which has lifted the rate back to
Y99.65/70 into Europe.
Traders highlight the large option expiries for today's
NY cut, the strikes running from Y99.50 through to Y98.00 and has been suggested
that this interest may anchor dollar-yen below Y100.00 until they mature. Asian
traders note decent offers sitting between Y99.90/100.00, one even suggesting
that rate won't get above Y99.95 on the day, with stops noted at Y100.10.
Support seen back at Y99.20/00, covering the 5-dma at Y99.06 which is seen by
Ichimoku traders as interesting support for rally continuation. Euro-yen was
pressed back to Y129.71 after continuing its corrective pullback off Y130.54
which began late NY.
NEWS: Japan's benchmark stocks are trading higher Thursday. The Nikkei 225
was higher by 261.03 points, or 1.96%, at 13549.16. Into the close, the
broader-based TOPIX was higher by 25.54 points at 1146.58. Market breadth
indicators saw 131 issue higher, 84 lower and 10 unchanged. Preliminary volume
stood at 3.298 bn shares.
OPTIONS: FX: Option expiries for today's 1000ET cut,
* Euro-dollar; $1.2900, $1.2980, $1.3085, $1.3090, $1.3100, $1.3115, $1.3125,
$1.3200
* Dollar-yen;
Y98.00, Y98.45, Y98.50, Y99.00, Y99.50 (all large);
Y99.70, Y100.00, Y100.20
* Cable; $1.5200, $1.5300;
(large expiries noted from $1.5050 to $1.4800)
* Euro-Swiss; Chf1.2150, Chf1.2200, Chf1.2350
* Aussie; $1.0450, $1.0480, $1.0485, $1.0500, $1.0525, $1.0550
EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: Eurozone sovereign T-bill issuance has been completed
for this week, with E24.979bln allocated by Germany, France, Greece, ESM and
Italy compared to E13.588bln allotted last week. To recap, on Monday, Germany
sold E3.49bln 6-month Oct 16 Bubill at average yield -0.0002%. In the afternoon,
France sold E3.698 3-month Jul 4 BTF at average yield 0.013%, E1.496bln 6-month
Sep 5 BTF at average yield 0.029% and E1.999bln 12-month Apr 3 BTF at average
yield 0.067%. On Tuesday Greece sold E1.3bln in new 26-week Oct 11 T-bill at
average yield 4.25%. The ESM sold E1.996bln 3-month Jul 11 Bill at average yield
-0.0127%. Finally on Wednesday Italy sold E3.0bln 3-month Jul 12 BOT at average
yield 0.243 and E8.0bln 12-month Apr 14, 2014 at average yield 0.922%. T-bill
issuance is expected to slow down next week with plans from Netherlands, France,
Spain, Greece, Belgium and Ireland is expected to total E18.5bln.
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: Sovereign bond issuance in the eurozone this week is now
estimated at E24.04bln after Austria priced its syndicated dual-tranche deal
Wednesday and compares to E15.28bln sold last week. Attention now turns to
Italy's sale of new benchmark 3-year 2.25% 2016 BTP on THursday for between
E3.0bln-E4.0bln, tap 15-year 4.75% 2028 BTP for between E1.5bln-E2.0bln and tap
its floater June 2017 CCTeu for between E1.0bln-E1.5bln. As a recap, Germany
sold a 5-year linker 0.75% Apr 2018 Boblei issue Tuesday for up to E1.0bln,
Finland has priced E4.0bln of new syndicated 10-year benchmark bond and the
Netherlands re-opened its 20-year benchmark 2.50% 2033 DSL for E2.035bln. The
EFSF priced E8.0bln new 5-year syndicated bond on Tuesday. On Wednesday, Germany
re-opened its 2-year benchmark 0.25% 2015 Schatz issue for up to E5.0bln and
Austria priced its syndicated E3.0bln new 10.5-year RAGB and E1.5bln new 21-year
RAGB issues. Looking ahead, Belgium conduct its ORI auction on Friday, but due
to confirm today. In terms of reinvestment flows, redemption from Germany for
E17.0bln and coupon payment also from Germany for E1.7bln -- turns net cash flow
positive to the tune of E3.9ln vs -E15.0bln last week.
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: Eurozone sovereign issuance so far this year totals
E299.02bln, according to MNI calculations, which represents around 40% of total
issuance. Austria and Finland have caught up with their EMU neighbours after
syndicated deals this week. Spain has achieved 39.7% of its gross funding needs
after today's sale of new 3-year 2016 Bono and taps 2018-/2021 Obligacion bonds.
For full details, please see MNI Eurozone Issuance Profile.
- Austria has sold E8.35bln bonds vs E20-24bln RAGB target or 37.95%
- Belgium has sold E12.5bln in bonds vs E37ln OLO target or 33.7%
- Finland has issued E5.0bln vs E12.95bln funding target or 38.6%
- France has sold E68.26bln in bonds vs E169bln gross target or 40.4%
- Germany has sold E57.0bln in bonds vs E173bln target or 32.95%
- Ireland has sold E7.5bln in bonds vs E10.0bln target
- Italy has issued E62.8bln bonds vs non-official E180bln plan or 34.9%
- Portugal has sold E2.5bln out of expected bond issuance of E6.0bln
- Spain has sold E48.1bln out of its E121.3bln gross target or 39.7%
- The Netherlands has sold E22.7bln in capital mkt funding E50bln or 45.5%
EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- Apr 11 Eurogroup meeting in Dublin
- Apr 11 Portuguese FinMin Gaspar speaks at Trinity College Dublin
- Apr 11 Spanish March Target2 data and central bank lending figures
- Apr 11 Italy sells new 3Y BTP, taps 15Y BTP, floater CCTeu for up to E7.5bln
- Apr 12/13 Informal ECOFIN meeting in Dublin
- Apr 12 Italy T-bill redemption for E8.8bln
- Apr 15/16 Economist 17th Roundtable with Government of Greece
- Apr 15 Italy joint session of parliament called to elect new President
- Apr 15 Italy bond redemption of 4.25% 2013 BTP for E16.7bln
- Apr 16 Spain 6-/12-month T-bill auctions
- Apr 16/17 IMF publishes Global Financial Stability Report
- Apr 18/19 G20 FinMin & Central Bank Governors' meeting
- Apr 18 Spain bond auction
- Apr 18 Ireland bond redemption
- Apr 19/21 IMF/World Bank Spring meetings
US: Timeline of some upcoming key events in the US:
- Apr 11 Fed Plosser (non-voter) at MNI seminar in Hong Kong at 0600ET
- Apr 11 Fed Bullard (voter) in Washington at 0830ET
- Apr 11 EC VP Almunia in Washington at 0930ET
- Apr 11 Tsy Lew at House Ways & Means C'ttee on budget plan at 1000ET
- Apr 11 Outright Tsy Coupon Purch 05/15/2020-02/15/2023 $2.75-$3.5b
- Apr 11 UST announces 3/6m bills, 5y TIPS at 1100ET
- Apr 11 UST auctions $13Bn 29y, 10m reopen at 1300ET
- Apr 11 Tsy Lew at Senate Finance C'ttee on budget plan at 1430ET
- Apr 11 Money Supply (M2) at 1630ET
- Apr 12 Fed Rosengren (voter) opens Boston Fed Econ Conf at 0845ET
- Apr 12 Outright TCoupon Purch 02/15/2036-02/15/2043 $1.25-$1.75bn
- Apr 12 USTsy dealer agenda for May refunding talks at 1200ET
- Apr 12 Fed Chair Bernanke at community dev conf in Washington at 1230ET
- Apr 13 Fed Lockhart (non-voter) at U of Iowa Law School at 1230ET
Nie masz wymaganych uprawnień, aby zobaczyć pliki załączone do tego posta.
