ejek może ostro ruszyć, wczoraj potwierdzili chęć do umocnienia, tylko wsadzili nogę z werbalnym zakłóceniem, ale nie było żadnej mowy o jakichś działaniach czy narzędziach od G7, pewnie sami na tym zjeździe zapakowali się w eLki
Nowy123 pisze:a wczesniej spadaek SUD CHIF zwiastowalo to male UP
nowy, ja się już nauczyłem, na 66% jak jest trend up na edku to w nocy trochę opadają, jak nie maleje cena przez noc to zaczynam się niepokoić, i dziś wzorcowo zachowali się
jeszcze cztery paki i po dniówce
-- Dodano: śr 13-02-2013, 8:47 --
sorka dwie
niech podciagaj ile sie da bo SP500 do korekty sie sklada i S trzeb wyzej polapac nie tylko im niech mieszaja
@Kundziu, zamykałem, na edku gram od 8:00 bo on nie chodzi jednostajnie 24h, tylko bardziej przedziałami w ciągu dnia, popatrz na wykresy w tym kontekście
EUROPE: There is a full calendar Wednesday, with data and events expected on
both sides of the Atlantic. The calendar gets underway at 0700GMT, with the
release of the German January wholesales prices data. Following Tuesday's
Riksbank meeting, today sees the policy decision, expected at 0830GMT. Analysts
consensus is for the Riksbank to leaves rates unchanged, although the outlier is
for a 25 bps cut. In France, at 0900GMT, the IEA monthly oil market report will
be released in Paris. At 1000GMT, the EMU December Industrial output numbers
will be released. At 1550GMT, EMU ECB Executive Board member Peter Praet is
scheduled to give a speech in London.
SWEDEN: Danske, in a morning report, suggest that today's rate announcement by
the Riksbank will be a close call. 'It is a close call whether the Riksbank will
cut rates by 25 bps or not today at 0830GMT. The market is divided, almost
evenly, with most of the Swedish banks going for a cut and most non-Swedish
banks looking for unchanged rates. Our research team is in the unchanged camp.
The average "price" on BBG is 0,90% = a 10 bp cut, so in other words 60% expect
unchanged and 40% expect a 25 bp cut. Given the uncertain nature of the outcome,
it would seem logical to expect Euro-Sek to move after the decision no matter
what the outcome is. Levels to watch are Sek8.62 on the topside and Sek8.55 and
Sek8.49 on the downside. My money would be on unchanged rates and a move to
Sek8.49/50.'
GREECE: A growing number of Greek professionals are withholding VAT payments to
the government, eKathimerini reports, as they struggle to maintain cash flows.
EUROPE: The FT says companies across the eurozone are turning to the bond
markets to raise cash at the fastest rate since 2010, as they turn away from
bank borrowing.
GERMAN PRESS: The European Commission is looking to unveil a financial
transaction tax this week that would take effect next year in up to 11 EU member
states including Germany, the Sueddeutsche Zeitung reported on Wednesday.
According to the revised bill seen by the German daily, the bulk of European
banks, insurance and investment funds would participate, generating an estimated
annual revenue stream of E31 to E35 billion. The Commission will table the draft
on Thursday, the SZ added. The tax would apply to the sale of various financial
products, including stocks, asset-backed securities and derivates, and would
come into play when either the buyer or seller, either directly or indirectly,
comes from one of the participating countries, the paper noted.
UK: There is no UK data Wednesday, but the Quarterly Inflation report will be
released at 1030GMT. followed by the Governor's press conference. The conference
will be King's penultimate appearance before stepping down in June.
UK PRESS: UK youth fashion retailers Republic are the latest high street chain
to run into trouble, the Telegraph reports, calling in the administrators and
putting up to 2,000 jobs at risk.
US: The US calendar kicks off at 1200GMT, with the release of the MBA Mortgage Index
for the Feb 8 week
The main release of the session comes at 1330GMT, when January retail sales
numbers cross the wires. Retail sales are forecast to rise 0.1% in January, as
motor vehicle sales accelerated modestly in the month, but AAA reported that
gasoline prices fell for the fourth straight month in January. Retail sales are
expected to rise 0.1% excluding motor vehicle and parts sales.
Also at 1330GMT, the January Export, Import Price Index numbers will cross the
wires.
At 1355GMT, the Redbook Average for the Feb 9 week will be released.
Dec Business Inventories are expected at 1500GMT and are expected to rise 0.3%
in December, with factory orders already reported up 0.1% and wholesale
inventories down 0.1%, suggesting that analyst expect a solid rise in retail
inventories despite a 0.4% sales rise that month.
Also at 1500GMT, the US Senate Finance Committee finally holds a hearing on the
nomination of Jack Lew to serve as Treasury secretary.
At 1530GMT, the EIA Crude Oil Stocks for the Feb 8 week are set for release.
At 1610GMT, US St. Louis Fed President James Bullard will give a speech on the
economy at Jonesboro, Arkansas.
US: From Obama's State Of the Union Address:
-CLEARED AWAY RUBBLE OF CRISIS AFTER GRUELING RECESSION
-ECONOMY ADDING JOBS BUT TOO MANY STILL OUT OF WORK
-MUST REIGNITE 'TRUE ENGINE' OF ECON GROWTH:MIDDLE CLASS
-TOP PRIORITY MUST BE TO CREATE MANUFACTURING JOBS
-URGES CONGRESS TO RAISE MIN WAGE TO $9/HOUR
-MUST SET PARTY INTERST ASIDE,FORGE REASONABLE COMPROMISE
-MUST MAKE DECISION ON BUDGET;SEQUESTER WLD HURT RECOVERY
-ADDRESS REST OF DEFICIT BY CLOSING TAX LOOPHOLES
-MIDDLE CLASS CAN'T SHOULDER WHOLE BURDEN OF ADJUSTMENT
-WILLING TO REFORM MEDICARE, BRING DOWN COSTS
-PROPOSE CREATING 15 MANUFACTURING HUBS,3 IMMEDIATELY
-WHITE HOUSE: PROPOSE ONE-TIME $1 BLN INVESTMENT IN MFG HUBS
-NEW PROPOSALS FULLY PAID FOR, WILL NOT ADD TO DEFICIT
-URGES INFRASTRUCTURE REPAIR INITIATIVE TO ATTRACT JOBS
-CALLS ON CONGRESS TO PASS HOME REFINANCE BIL
-CALLS FOR MORE INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY DEVELOPMENT
-SHOULD COMPLETE TRANS-PACIFIC PARTNERSHIP TO BOOST TRADE
-WILL LAUNCH TRANS-ATLANTIC PARTNERSHIP W/ EU
-CAN'T DRIFT FROM ONE MANUFACTURED CRISIS TO THE NEXT
-MUST DEAL WITH DEFICIT WITHOUT BRINKSMANSHIP
EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY Tuesday at $1.3456 after rate had seen a recovery off
intraday lows of $1.3364 to $1.3476 before drifting lower into the close. Rate
settled the early part of the Asian session between $1.3445/60, extending lows
to $1.3438 during afternoon trade before it settled between $1.3440/50 ahead of
the European open. Headline reaction risk proved itself Tuesday as G7 comments,
following the release of their Statement, tried in vain to clarify the
Statement's intention. G7 source comments highlighting Japan's recent efforts to
weaken the yen prompted a sharp reversal in recent yen easing, which caused
knock on effects, though the euro retained an underlying buoyant tone via other
crosses. Eurozone IP at 1000GMT the morning interest, though market will be
watching US retail sales data at 1330GMT for main reaction. This will be the
first major data to reflect the end of 2012 tax holiday and its effects on US
consumers. Resistance remains in place at $1.3460, stronger between $1.3475/85
ahead of $1.3500. Support seen toward $1.3430/25, broken resistance now support
(falling t/line from $1.3711 also broken and now providing some support in this
area). Stops $1.3420.
EURO-DOLLAR: Rate picks up a bid tone, gets boosted from around $1.3447 up to
$1.3464, the move popping above the overnight Asian high at $1.3660, as traders
hunt for stops. Stronger offers seen placed between $1.3475/85.
EURO-DOLLAR: Swiss names getting cited for the push higher, the rate extending
recovery to $1.3472 and looking set to retest Tuesday's recovery highs at
$1.3475. Offers noted between $1.3475/85
CABLE: Closed in NY Tuesday at $1.5673, just off its session highs of $1.5675,
seen after rate had been pressed to lows of $1.5571, the dip meeting strong
sovereign support ahead of the recovery. The move up was seen in tandem with
euro-dollar, as the dollar gave ground, though sterling was able to take back
some lost ground from the euro, euro-sterling easing off Tuesday highs of
stg0.8632 to stg0.8591 into the NY close. Cable extended recovery highs to
$1.5684 in early Asia, dipped to $1.5664 before resuming its climb, touching an
overnight high at $1.5690. Rate was holding back around $1.5675/80 into Europe.
Euro-sterling was contained within stg0.8572/86 through Asia, opening Europe
around stg0.8574. Focus today on the BOE Inflation Report at 1030GMT, inflation
expected to be projected above the target in the forecast horizon, though
downside risks likely to be reduced given weakness in the pound, strength of oil
prices and higher asset prices(RBC comment). Market will look for comment on the
strength of the pound as well as growth forecasts to provide directional
impetus. Resistance seen at $1.5690/00, more into $1.5810 with stops above. Bids
$1.5650, $1.5630/20.
CABLE: Breaks under $1.5650 as early pressure increases. Rate extends pullback
off overnight highs of $1.5690 to $1.5645 (38.2% $1.5571-1.5690). A break below
here to open a deeper move toward $1.5630 (50%).
YEN: Dollar-yen closed in NY at Y93.47 after rate had been driven to a
corrective pullback low of Y92.95, from intraday highs of Y94.41, as market
reacted to confused messages from G7. Rate came under further downside pressure
into early Asia, Tuesday's comments continued to prompt profit take covering as
markets turn focus to this afternoon's key US retail sales data, as well as G20
Friday-Saturday, the rate getting pressed to Y92.83 before picking up fresh
demand into the dip. Rate opens Europe around its Tenkan line at Y93.04.
Technically the upside remains favoured though signals, noticed Tuesday, have
begun to weaken. Trade inmto the weekend meeting expected to be contained within
Y92/94 but rate remains open to headline react risk. Euro-yen closed NY at
Y125.81, off its corrective lows of Y124.75 having seen highs earlier in the day
of Y126.95. Rate extended pullback lows to Y124.78 in Asia as traders continued
to pare long positions ahead of the weekend G20 meeting, with comment that yen
will be discussed. Looking at G7 it would seem they see benefit in Japan's
efforts to move out of deflation but don't want official comment to support a
weakening in the yen.
JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japan's benchmark stocks are lower Tuesday, reversing recent
gains as the yen strengthened. The Nikkei 225 was lower by 117.71 points, or
1.04%, at 11251.41. Into the close, the broader-based TOPIX was lower by 11.30
points at 957.20. Market breadth indicators saw 29 issue higher, 192 lower and 4
unchanged. Preliminary volume stood at 2.46 bn shares.
EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: Eurozone sovereign T-bill issuance has been completed
for this week, with E29.355bln allocated by Germany, France, Spain, Italy,
Greece and Belgium compared to E16.98bln allotted last week. To recap, on
Monday, Germany sold E3.385bln 6-month aug 14 Bubill at average yield 0.0203%.
In the afternoon, France sold E3.995 3-month BTF at average yield 0.012%,
E1.701bln 6-month BTF at average yield 0.048% and E1.894bln 12-month BTF at
average yield 0.145%. On Tuesday Spain sold E2.547bln 6-month Letra at average
yield 0.859% and allotted E3.024bln 12-month Letra at average yield 1.548%.
Italy sold E8.5bln 12-month BOT at average yield 1.094%. Greece sold E1.3bln
13-week T-bill at average yield 4.05%. Belgium sold E1.52bln 3-month T-bill at
average yield 0.039% and E1.49bln 12-month T-bill at average yield 0.164%.
T-bill issuance is expected to fall back next week with plans from Netherlands,
France, Spain, ESM, Portugal and Ireland, and could total E17.5bln.
GERMAN AUCTION PREVIEW: The Deutsche Finanzagentur sells a new 2-year benchmark
0.25% Mar 2015 Schatz issue Wednesday for up to E5.0bln. The issue trades at
0.21% mid-yield or a roll of +2bps mid vs 0.00% Dec 2014 Schatz. The key factor
underpinning demand is that historic results have been solid. The last
re-opening of the 0.00% Dec 2014 Schatz on Jan 2, E4.148bln was alloted at an
average yield of 0.01% and covered 1.5 times, with the Buba retaining 17% of the
sale. Prior to this, it was sold on Dec 5, where E3.3115bln was alloted at an
average yield of -0.01% and covered 1.9 times, with the Buba retaining 17.2% of
the sale. The inaugural auction of the 2014 Schatz on Nov 14, E4.323bln was
alloted at an average yield -0.02% and bid-to-cover of 1.90 times, with Buba
retaining 13.5% of the sale. The average cover ratio of the last 5-auctions is
1.88 times. This issue is due to be re-opened again on Mar 13 for up to E5.0bln
and also April also for up to E5.0bln, before a new June Schatz issue is
launched in May for up to E5.0bln. Auction results due shortly after bidding
closes at 1030GMT.
EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- Feb 13 Italy sells CCTeu/BTPs for up to E8.5bln combined size
- Feb 14 Eurozone Q4 advanced GDP
- Feb 14 Italy T-bill redemption for E9.153bln
- Feb 14 ECB start of reserve maintenance period
- Feb 14 ECB Feb monthly bulletin
- Feb 14/15 G20 FinMin and central bank governors' deputies meeting
- Feb 15 ECB Draghi joint presser with Bank of Russia Chairman Ignatiev
- Feb 15 Spain T-bill redemption for E9.241bln
- Feb 15 Greek T-till redemption for E1.6bln
- Feb 17 Cyprus Presidential election (first round)
- Feb 18 Ireland T-bill redemption for E500mln
- Feb 18 ECB Draghi quarterly hearing at European Parliament
- Feb 19 ESM bill auction
- Feb 19 Spain sells 3-/9-month T-bills
- Feb 19 German Feb ZEW survey
... zbieraj pips do pipa bo jak nie to z depo będzie lipa... G."niemiaszek"
Wiem, że jego przewidywalność jest czasami myląca. Jednak moje Longi były na tyle nisko, że wytrzymały. Zobaczymy czy dzisiaj pukną i przelecą przez 1.3495. Żeby tylko jakiś politykier dzisiaj nic nie pierdnął to powinno być ok.
Przejechaliśmy czerwoną linię.
Na tą chwilę bardziej prawdopodobna opcja nr 1, ale zobaczymy co będzie dalej.
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