DayTrading: Czwartek 24.01.2013

[niemiaszek]

Hello


EUROPE: With the recent upturn in sentiment across the region, Thursday's flash
service and manufacturing PMI numbers will offer an early glimpse at the state
of the European economy. The main two releases will see French flash numbers
released at 0758 GMT and German data at 0828GMT. Overall Eurozone PMI numbers
will be released at 0858GMT. At 0900GMT, the ECB November current account
numbers will be released, along with the Italian November retail sales numbers.
1400GMT, the Belgium January business confidence index will cross the wires.


UK: At 0930GMT, UK December BBA Lending Data
will be released, followed at 1100GMT with the release of the January CBI
Distributive Trades Survey.

UK PRESS: The Guardian says Germany has "hinted" at some sort of soothing deal
with UK PM Cameron on EU issues, as German Chancellor Merkel offers to talk on
the subject.

UK PRESS: The FT says FSA emails from 2012, seen by the paper, confirm that
interdealer broker ICAP is at the heart of regulator investigations into LIBOR
manipulation.



US: The US calendar kicks off at 1330GMT, with the release of the Jobless Claims
numbers for the Jan 19 week. The level of initial claims is expected to rise
29,000 to 364,000 in the January 19 week after falling 37,000 to a four-year low
in the previous week. Seasonal adjustment factors expected a larger increase
than actually occurred in the January 12 week, resulting in the large
decline. Seasonal factors expected a 20% decline in unadjusted data in the
January 19 week, which, if not met, would result in an adjusted rise In week. US
PMI numbers will cross the wires at 1358GMT, with the release of the January
flash Markit PMI data. Back in Europe, at 1400GMT, the Belgium January business
confidence index will cross the wires. The Bloomberg Comfort Index for the
January 20 week will be released at 1445GMT. At 1500GMT, the US December Leading
Indicator numbers are due for release.
Following Monday's US bank holiday, Thursday sees the release of both the US EIA
Natural Gas Stocks and the EIA Crude Oil Stocks at 1530GMT and 1600GMT
respectively.
Also at 1600GMT, the Kansas City Fed Production data for January will hit
screens.
The last data release sees US Money Supply (M2) for the Jan 19 week released at
2130GMT.

INDUSTRY NEWS: NYSE head tells the WSJ that the group will not be selling te
Euronext exchanges to a competitor such as ICE or London Stock Exchange.



EURO-DOLLAR: Rate closed in NY at $1.3318 after recovering off a low of $1.3265
following its corrective pullback off earlier highs of $1.3355. Rate had seen a
recovery high of $1.3324 ahead of the NY close with the corrective pullback from
here continuing into early Asia. Rate squeezed to an early low of $1.3297 as
traders reacted to disappointing Apple results (after the bell), with sales of
euro-yen providing the main weight. Release of better than expected China PMI
data reversed this early tone and took rate back up to $1.3325 before momentum
faded. Rate drifted off to $1.3306, recovering ahead of the European, the rate
currently trading around $1.3313. Many reports suggest rate currently stuck in
an outside range of $1.3250-1.3400 with a break of either side to provide clues
to the next direction. Focus today on flash Eurozone PMI data, beginning with
France at 0758GMT (Germany 0828, EZ 0858), with Spanish employment data due at
0800GMT. Weekly jobless claims from the US at 1330GMT to provide early afternoon
interest. Euro-dollar offers seen at $1.3325/35, $1.3350/55. Support
$1.3300/1.3295, $1.3280 and $1.3265-50.

EURO-DOLLAR: Early demand into Europe sees rate break above its Asian high of
$1.3325, extending recovery off Wednesday's lows of $1.3265 to $1.3340. Offers
seen between $1.3350/55, with talk of stops mixed in between $1.3355/60. A break
here to open a move on toward $1.3370, with one trader noting sell interest from
this level and trailing up to $1.3400. Rate edges higher again at posting,
trades around $1.3344.


CABLE: Closed in NY at $1.5844 after rate had recovered off a corrective
pullback of $1.5830 seen after rate had failed to push above $1.5900 (NY high
$1.5892). Rate stepped its way to an early low of $1.5813 in opening Asian
trade, but move remained wary of retesting recent lows ahead of $1.5800, market
aware that decent demand is seen in place ahead of $1.5800 (barrier protection).
Release of stronger than forecast China PMI data saw rate recover to $1.5835
before momentum faded and it drifted back off to $1.5828 ahead of the European
open. PM Cameron's UK/EU relationship passed without any major surprises, with
the BOE Minutes also seen as expected. A better than expected employment release
did provide sterling with some support but Friday's Q4 GDP release lurks in the
background and seen key for direction into next week. If the headline number
comes in negative it will have market commentators suggesting the UK on the
verge of triple dip recession, with its threats to the UK's rating. Cable
support remains toward $1.5800 ahead of $1.5780/70 ahead of $1.5750. Resistance
$1.5850/55, $1.5870/75 and stronger between $1.5890/00. Large stops $1.5910/20.
Euro-sterling contained by stg0.8403/13 in Asia.

CABLE: Early demand into Europe sees rate make a brief show above the overnight
high at $1.5846, though only edging the topside to $1.5847 before easing to
$1.5842. Cable resistance seen at $1.5850/55 ($1.5852 50% $1.5892-12), a break
to open a move toward $1.5870/75 ($1.5873 76.4%). Main support remains in place
on approach to $1.5800.


YEN: Dollar-yen was seen correcting off a late NY recovery high of Y88.73,
closing this session at Y88.66, with early Asia extending this move to Y88.42
before buyers emerged into the dip. The recovery was aided by decent gains on
the Nikkei with move then boosted as news reports of North Korea declaring
nuclear and rocket tests (mentioning the US in mind) hit the wires. Rate saw an
initial high of Y89.31 before momentum faded, which allowed it to drift back to
Y89.05. Release of stronger than forecast China PMI provided the next buy
trigger and took rate on to session highs of YY89.46. Rate was trading around
Y89.30 into Europe. Euro-yen basically tracked dollar-yen moves, the rate
recovering off an early low of Y117.59 to an eventual high of Y119.12, opening
Europe around Y118.92.

JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: The Nikkei 225 ended the day higher, boosted
by the weaker yen. The Index was up 133.88 points, or 1.28%, at 10620.87.


GOLD: Spot gold prices are trading lower Thursday, extending their
declines seen during the previous day. Spot gold ended Wednesday's
session $6.85 lower at $1685.85/oz after prices failed to breach
resistance camped around the $1700/oz area, a level that has not been
surpassed for several sessions since bullion prices have recovered from
a previous sell-off. Gold prices have extended yesterday's declines this
morning, after the HSBC flash China PMI rose to a two-year high in
January and with exporters lifted by the yen's fall. Some upbeat
comments from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have also curbed
haven demand this morning, after they stated that the global economy
will continue to expand this year and next though at a more moderate
pace than previously expected, but urgent policy actions are still
needed to address the continued "significant" risks to the recovery.
Spot gold prices have continued to edge lower during Asian hours this
morning, falling to lows of $1677.65/oz from an initial high of
$1686.25/oz and now trade $1680.20/oz, down $5.65 on the session.


OIL: March NYMEX WTI prices are trading moderately higher Thursday after
posting some sharp losses during the previous day. March WTI futures
ended Wednesday's session $1.45 lower, or 1.5%, at $95.23 a barrel,
after crude prices slid on reports that shippers were notified that the
newly expanded Seaway pipeline, with capacity of 400,000 barrels per
day, had been reduced to 175,000 barrels per day. Supply data from the
American Petroleum Institute last night also showed crude supplies rose
by 3.2mln barrels last week. WTI prices have tentatively edged their way
back higher, during Asian traded hours this morning, supported by some
upbeat manufacturing data from China. March WTI futures have recovered
from initial intra-day lows of $95.12 to highs of $95.62 and now trade
at $95.45 a barrel, up 22 cents on the session.


NATURAL GAS: NYMEX February natural gas prices are trading in positive
territory Thursday after closing marginally lower during the previous
day. February natural gas futures ended Wednesday's session 0.4% lower
at $3.554 per million British thermal units (mln Btu) after trading in a
$3.512 to $3.596 range. Front month contracts became subject of some
moderate profit taking ahead of some milder weather expected for next
week despite the arctic cold seen this week that has sharply increased
heating demand. Natural gas prices may remain in a tight range ahead of
today's Energy Information Report, due to be published at 1530GMT.
February natural gas futures have advanced this morning from lows of
$3.563 to trade session highs of $3.588 per mln Btu a few moments ago
and prices remain firm, currently trading $3.587 per mln Btu, up from
last night's close of $3.554 per mln Btu.


OPTIONS: FX: Option expiries for today's 1000ET cut,
* Euro-dollar; $1.3250, $1.3300, $1.3350, $1.3385, $1.3400
* Dollar-yen; Y88.50, Y89.00(large), Y90.00
* Cable; $1.6025
* Dollar-Swiss; Chf0.9225, Chf0.9340
* Aussie; $1.0500, $1.0550, $1.0570, $1.0590
* Aussie-Kiwi; NZ$1.2580

[Mpapiez]

No i jak misiaczki?
Czy ktoś zainwestował z was w S na edku przed 14 jak był 1.3340?
mówiłam wam o super news i zjazd był
na pewno nie bo mnie uważacie zał głupią niepiśmienną blondynkę
a ja chciałam wam dobrze zrobić - koniec z tym nie jesteście tego wart!

Ale bzdura. Typowe pierdzielenie kogoś kto "zgadł". Ludzie na forexlive nie wiedzieli za bardzo czym był spowodowany zjazd, ale ty wiedziałaś. I właśnie to że ten zjazd nie miał jakiegoś sensownego podłoża, spowodowało szybki powrót do góry.
Poza tym jak jesteś tak dobra, to czemu konto zerujesz ?


Co do tematu: Jak ktoś ma nastrój na S, to imo lepszego miejsca nie będzie. LT i resist w jednym miejscu.
Ja osobiście obstawiam wybicie górą. Co nie chce spadać będzie rosnąć. Ale to troche mój głupi strzał, na kotynuację elki ze spodu.

[xantiros]

Co do tematu: Jak ktoś ma nastrój na S, to imo lepszego miejsca nie będzie. LT i resist w jednym miejscu.
Ja osobiście obstawiam wybicie górą. Co nie chce spadać będzie rosnąć. Ale to troche mój głupi strzał, na kotynuację elki ze spodu.

"S" bym nie ryzykował, wg. mnie lepiej poczekać na poziomy 1,3300- 1,3280-70 i wejść w "L",

[cajto]

Dwa dni temu kreśliłem, dziś jak najbardziej aktualne.

[mario4545]

Przemyślenia przed dzisiejszą sesją:

http://www.grapheine.com/bombaytv/illus ... 58d42.html

[roberttheus]

I stało się............. co miało się dziś stać. Jen osłabił się........... 150 pipków zysku mam:-)

[rafmax]

ja dostrzegam jeszcze wewnatrz tej konsoli inny trojkat symetryczny. pomijajac wczorajszy wystrzał w dół spowodowany hmmm czyms tam... ładnie pasuje. w zwiazku z tym teoretyczny maks spadek dzis to 1,33. jak bedzie dodatkowe jakies ładne PA tam to moze byc ostatnia szansa aby złapac pociag do gwiazd w promocyjnej cenie...

[pkubiu]

chłopaki przyczyny była wiadoma co do zjazdu edka gorsze prognozy dla europy!!!
Mówiłam że mam niektóre informacje z pierwszej reki -a nie żadne przeczucia
I domagam sie o ukaranie tych którzy mnie obrażają@!!

[cajto]

ja dostrzegam jeszcze wewnatrz tej konsoli inny trojkat symetryczny. pomijajac wczorajszy wystrzał w dół spowodowany hmmm czyms tam... ładnie pasuje. w zwiazku z tym teoretyczny maks spadek dzis to 1,33. jak bedzie dodatkowe jakies ładne PA tam to moze byc ostatnia szansa aby złapac pociag do gwiazd w promocyjnej cenie...

Jak można pominąć coś, co zaistniało i na takiej podstawie robić analizę?! Brokerowi też byś powiedział "pomijając wycięcie SL, TG jednak zaliczony"

[xantiros]

chłopaki przyczyny była wiadoma co do zjazdu edka gorsze prognozy dla europy!!!
Mówiłam że mam niektóre informacje z pierwszej reki -a nie żadne przeczucia
I domagam sie o ukaranie tych którzy mnie obrażają@!!

ROTFL x4, dam ci radę skończ się ośmieszać


a co do edzia

Options: 1.3300/50/80, 1.3400