1. W wątku DT omawiamy bieżąca sytuacje na rynku i to co dotyczy danego dnia. Od dłuższych prognoz jest dział Prognozy, komentarze, analizy
2. Zamieszczamy tylko i wyłącznie swoje analizy. Nie kopiujemy z innych serwisów.
3. Komentarz do własnej analizy nie może mieć charakteru rekomendacji. (to nie jest dział z sygnałami)
4. Kłótnie, ataki na innych użytkowników są niedopuszczalne.
5. Nie zaśmiecamy wątku. (wypowiedzi w stylu: "dałem S", "ja kończę na dziś" itp. jak i chwalenie się swoimi statami)
Nagminne łamanie powyższych zasad będzie skutkować nałozeniem zakazu pisania do końca bieżącego tygodnia.
Recydywa będzie karana ostrzeżeniami.
Przypominam że ponadto obowiązuje Regulamin Forum
Przedstawione poglądy, oceny, opinie i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów
autorów i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji do nabycia lub zbycia albo
powstrzymania się od dokonania transakcji w odniesieniu do jakichkolwiek walut.
Poglądy te jak i inne treści nie stanowią "rekomendacji" lub "doradztwa"
w rozumieniu ustawy z dnia 29 lipca 2005 o obrocie instrumentami finansowymi.
Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte lub zaniechane
na podstawie poniższych analiz ponosi inwestor.
Przedstawione, poglądy, oceny i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów autora i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji. Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte i z wykorzystaniem wniosków w nich zawartych, ponosi inwestor. subsilver2趋势线
Jaki wystrzał ?
odbicie - korekata, a teraz zjazd będzie. Spadł śnieg Mikołaj kupił nowe sanki...
-- Dodano: wt 11-12-2012, 7:48 --
o 8:00 mało ważne dane - ale z Niemiec cena po oporem... reakcja może wpłynąć na sentyment... a później właściwie to ZEW... Nie ma zbyt wiele tego dziś.
08:00 EUR German WPI (MoM) -0.7% 0.1% -0.6%
08:00 ZAR South African Retail Sales (YoY) 1.00% 4.00% 4.70% ("rynek wschodzący")
09:00 HUF Hungarian CPI (YoY) 5.4% 6.0% ("rynek wschodzący" - może mieć wpływ na koszyk z PLN)
EUROPE: Tuesday's session sees a quiet calendar, giving markets further
opportunities to ruminate on the renewed political upheaval in Italy.
The main focus over the next two days will be the FOMC, although a
decision on policy is not expected until Wednesday evening European
time. In the eurozone, data gets underway at 0630GMT, with the release
of French third quarter job creation data. There is a limited UK data
calendar, but at 1000GMT, the October Conference Board Leading Indicator
numbers will cross the wires. Also at 1000GMT, the German ZEW survey is
released.In November, the IFO as well as France's Insee confidence
surveys came in much more buoyant than had been anticipated. Will the
data continue to point in different directions. The mixed nature of
recent euro zone releases was emphasised by ECB President Mario Draghi
at his monthly press conference last week at which it was made clear
that the Governing Council is unlikely to move rates down as early as
January, although it would be too bold to rule out a cut in February.
GREECE: Greece's debt buy-back exchange offer expires at 1200GMT
Tuesday, according to the Public Debt Management Agency (PDMA). The
offer was extended on Monday after the Greek government failed to reach
its target of E30.0bln in bids -- having reportedly attracted bids of
over E27.0bln. "The extension will allow holders of Designated
Securities who have not yet offered them for exchange pursuant to the
Invitation to participate in the Invitation", said the PDMA. However,
holders of Designated Securities that submitted participation
instructions prior to the initial expiration deadline 1700GMT on Dec 7
will not have the right to revoke or modify such participation
instructions, added the PDMA. The Eurogroup will meet on Dec 13 to
approve the buy-back and settlement is Dec 18.
UK: There is a limited UK data calendar, but at 1000GMT, the October
Conference Board Leading Indicator numbers will cross the wires.
UK PRESS: Italy technocrat PM Mario Monti is in talks with Itlain
centrist political groups over whether or not to satnd in the electiosn
planned for early 2013, the FT reports.
UK PRESS: EU officials feel little concrete will be achieved at this
week's EU Leaders Summit, as the "sense of urgency" seen at the June
meet has largely dissipated, despite the current Italian woes, the FT
reports.
UK PRESS: UK fast food retailer Pizza Hut says it is to expand its
network of delivery stores to 700, with the hopes creation of 2000 new
jobs, the Guardian reports.
US: As noted, the FOMC's latest two-day meet gets underway Tuesday. The
meeting has received a fair deal of speculation, as the second
'Operation Twist' program is scheduled to end at the end of 2012 and may
need to be replaced by another asset purchase program.
The FOMC will release its statement Wednesday at 12:30 p.m. ET and will
be followed by a 2:15 p.m. ET news conference with Federal Reserve
Chairman Ben Bernanke.
EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY at $1.2943 after extending its recovery off
the week's opening lows around $1.2880 through the day to a high of
$1.2947. The dollar retained its underlying soft tone through Asia, with
Wednesday's FOMC and Thursday's BOJ policy decisions in focus, with
euro-dollar able to mark overnight lows at $1.2929 before picking up
demand that took it on to $1.2962, the break of $1.2950 adding to upside
momentum. A dip to $1.2946 attracted another round of buying with rate
retesting overnight highs into Europe. Offers are reported between
$1.2970/80. Germany ZEW data to provide this morning's interest at
1000GMT, with Spain's bill auction just ahead at 0930GMT. FOMC and
Fiscal Cliff resolution hopes expected to underpin the renewal in risk
on outlook. Above $1.2980 and rate can edge on to $1.3000/10. Support
$1.2930/20 ahead of $1.2900 and $1.2885/75.
EURO-SWISS: Getting more confirmation on this report that UBS to follow
the Cr.Suisse lead on imposing negative interest charges on Chf
holdings. Bloomberg headline notes the Swift communication, adding that
charges will apply Dec21 (not Dec12 on earlier talk). Euro-Swiss extends
recovery to Chf1.2102, off Monday lows of Chf1.20625. Resistance seen
into Chf1.2125, Chf1.2150 ahead of Chf1.2180/85. UBS reports also says
that the application of negative interest rates will be imposed on an
individual basis.
CABLE: Closed in NY at $1.6077, after rate had seen an impressive
recovery rally through the NY session to a high of $1.6096 before it
eased off to $1.6064, recovering into the close. The recovery extended
to $1.6085 into early Asia before drifting off to session lows of
$1.6069. Fresh demand through the Asian afternoon lifted rate back
through its early high and on to $1.6090 ahead of the European open,
with rate holding firm. Moves through Asia were seen mainly influenced
by euro-dollar moves as the cross was held within a range of
stg0.8045/56. Cable offers remain in place toward $1.6100 ($1.6096
Monday high/$1.6101 76.4% $1.6131-$1.6002), a break to open a move on
toward $1.6120 ahead of recent highs at $1.6127/31. Support $1.6080/70
ahead of $1.6050. Sterling remains a favoured safe haven, able to take
advantage of current dollar weakness as market turn attention toward
Wednesday's FOMC policy decision and hopes that the US is moving toward
a Fiscal Cliff resolution.
CABLE: Continues to respect 76.4% retracement levels, the rate Monday
falling just shy of $1.6101 (76.4% $1.6131-1.6002) with the recovery off
Monday's pullback from $1.6096 to $1.6064 meeting resistance at $1.6088
(76.4%). Rate currently trades around $1.6077. A break of $1.6088 to
expose $1.6096 with offers seen from here to that $1.6101 level. Above
here and the area of recent highs at $1.6127/31 moves into view.
YEN: Yen was basically sidelined through Asia with dollar-yen contained
within a tight Y82.31/44 range. Offers seen in place to Y82.50, a break
here to expose the stronger option related sell interest placed between
Y82.85/00. Support begins from Y82.10, with stronger interest noted
between Y82.00-81.90. Euro-yen was also confined to a relatively tight
range, business through Asian held within Y106.48/76 with rate favouring
the upper end into Europe as the euro holds a general firm tone. Focus
remains on Wednesday's FOMC policy decision with the BOJ announcement
due Thursday. Cross offers remain in place into Y107.00, stops Y107.10.
JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japan's benchmark stock indices ended Tuesday's
session lower. The Nikkei 225 was lower by 8.43 points, or 0.09%, at
9525.32. Just ahead of the close, the broader-based TOPIX was lower by
2.97 points at 785.51. Preliminary volume in the Nikkei stocks totalled
781.5 Mn shares, with 61 issues higher, 142 lower and 22 unchanged.
GOLD: Spot gold prices are trading in negative territory Tuesday,
halting a three-day advance ahead of this week's FOMC meeting. Spot gold
ended Monday's session $8.90 higher at $1712.95/oz, with sentiment
underpinned ahead of today's two-day FOMC meeting where policy makers
are expected to announce more stimulus measures, which in turn could
provide some support for the precious metal. Spot gold prices have given
back some of yesterday's gains so far during Asian traded hours this
morning, slipping back from a session high of $1713.15/oz to hold at
lows of $1706.95/oz. Prices had managed to advance to one-week highs of
$1717.20/oz during yesterday's session. Spot gold now trades at
$1709.60/oz, down $3.35 on the session so far. Metals brokers report
muted activity so far, with offers noted above around $1719/20. Light
bids are seen around $1702/oz.
OIL: January NYMEX WTI futures are trading marginally higher Tuesday
after closing in the red for the fifth consecutive session yesterday.
January WTI futures ended Monday's session $0.37 lower at $85.56 a
barrel, after trading in a $85.33 (after hours) to $86.78 range. Since
November 1, the front contract has traded in a $84.05 (Nov. 7) to $90.33
(Dec. 3) range. WTI has now shed more than $3 over the last five trading
sessions. Oil prices have been tied to a narrow trading range so far
this morning ahead of tomorrow's OPEC gathering in Vienna to determine
the group's targets for crude production. Wednesday's FOMC meeting will
also be eyed. This morning, January WTI has recovered after initially
slipping to an intra-day low of $85.37 a barrel from a high of $85.73.
January WTI now trades at $85.69 a barrel, up 13 cents on the session.
NATURAL GAS: NYMEX January natural gas prices are trading marginally
lower Tuesday, extending their losses from the previous day. January
natural gas futures ended Monday's session down 9.1 cents, or 2.6%, at
$3.46 per million British thermal units (mln Btu) after posting a
six-week low of $3.415. Prices became subject of a correction lower
after extended weather forecasts projected warmer than normal
temperatures, which could slow overall demand. This morning, natural gas
prices are trading just below unchanged levels after recovering from
lows of $3.425 to an intra-day high of $3.463 per mln Btu. January
natural gas futures now trade at $3.454 per mln Btu.
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: Spain, Greece, Belgium and Slovenia all come to
the European soveriegn T-bill market on Tuesday. Spain is up first with
plans to tap 12-month Dec 13, 2013 Letra and issue new 18-month Jun 20,
2014 Letra for an indicative amount of E2.5-E3.5bln. Greece will issue
E2.125bln new 4-week Jan 11, 2013 T-bill and issue E1.25bln new 26-week
Jun 14, 2013 T-bill. Belgium plan to tap 3-month Mar 14, 2013 T-bill and
issue new 12-month Dec 19, 2013 T-bill for an indicative target range of
E1.0-E1.4bln. While Slovenia will issue new 3-month Mar 14, 2013 T-bill
for approximately E30mln. To recap on Monday Netherlands allotted
E1.08bln 3-month DTC at average yield -0.041% and E1.07bln 6-month DTC
at average yield -0.04%. In the afternoon, France sold E3.495 3-month
BTF at average yield -0.026%, E1.196bln 6-month BTF at average yield
-0.015% and E1.293bln 12-month BTF at average yield -0.012%. Still to
come on Wednesday, Italy will issue E6.5bln new 12-month Dec 13, 2013
BOT.
SPAIN T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: Spain's Tesoro Publico will tap
12-month Dec 13, 2013 Letra and issue new 18-month Jun 20, 2014 Letra
for an indicative amount of E2.5-E3.5bln Tuesday. The Dec 13, 2013 Letra
yield has risen by around 30bps to 2.60% since the beginning of last
week, while in the grey market the Jun 20, 2014 Letra mid-yield is seen
around 2.85%. Yields have increased due to the announcement Italy PM
Mario Monti will resign after the 2013 budget has been passed in
parliament. With the recent increase in yield, a large redemption of
E8.967bln this week and the fact this will be the last 12-/18-month
T-bill auction for 2012, should all lead to good solid demand at the
auction. For comparison, at the last 12-/18-month auction back on Nov
20, the Tesoro sold E4.225ln 12-month T-bills at average yield of 2.797%
with cover 2.12 times, and E713mln 18-month T-bills at average yield of
3.034% with cover 5.72 times. Results due to be announced around
0940GMT.
GREECE T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: Greece's Public Debt Management
Agency (PDMA) is planning to E2.125bln new 4-week Jan 11, 2013 T-bill
and issue E1.25bln new 26-week Jun 14, 2013 T-bill Tuesday. With the
Greek debt buy-back being extended to midday Tuesday, and the next
bailout tranche depending on its success, the PDMA is forced to roll
over the 4-week T-bill that matures at the end of the week. The PDMA
will once again allocate an extra 30% of amount auctioned, in non-comp
bids and a further 30% in second day bids, to bring total amount to be
issued to E5.4bln. At the last 4-week T-bill on Nov 13, the PDMA sold
E2.7625bln at average yield of 3.95% and covered 1.3 times, while the
last 26-week T-bill auction back on Nov 6, the PDMA sold E1.3bln at an
average yield of 4.41%, and covered 1.7 times. There will be a total of
E5.4bln in T-bill redemptions on Dec 14, and this is seen underpinning
demand at the auction. Results due to be announced around 1015GMT.
AUSTRIA AUCTION PREVIEW: The Austrian Federal Financing Agency
(AFFA) taps its 7-year benchmark 1.95% June 2019 RAGB and 10-year
benchmark 3.40% Nov 2022 RAGB issues Tuesday for E1.1bln combined size.
The auction concludes its 2012 RAGB funding programme, where outcome of
around E22bln is expected by the AFFA vs target of between
E20bln-E24bln. For comparison purposes, the 2019 RAGB was last sold on
Nov 6 for E660mln at an average yield of 1.218% and bid-to-cover ratio
of 2.21 times. The 2022 RAGB was also last sold on Nov 6 for E660mln at
an average yield of 1.888% and covered 2.86 times. Looking ahead into
2013, Austria plans to sell between E20bln-E24bln in RAGB bond issuance
in 2013 and total issuance, including RAGBs, T-bills, EMTN and loans,
for 2012 is targeted at E27bln-E30bln having sold around E28.0bln this
year. The debt agency plans one or two syndicated issues in 2013. Auction results are due around 1015GMT.
BELGIUM T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: Belgium's Debt Agency re-opens a
3-month T-bill maturing Mar 14, 2013, and issue new 12-month T-bill
maturing Dec 19, 2013 for an indicative amount of E1.0-E1.4bln on
Tuesday. This will be the last tap of the Mar 14 T-bill, and with only
E3.397bln outstanding, demand could be above average. Mid-yield is seen
trading around zero percent, while at the last 3-month T-bill auction on
Dec 4 the Belgium Treasury allotted E368mln at average yield -0.029% and
covered 10.96 times. As for the new 12-month Dec 19 T-bill, the grey
market is indicating a mid-yield of 0.032%, and demand could be very
high due to the small size of the auction and the fact this will be the
last Belgium T-bill auction in 2012. At the last 12-month T-bill auction
on Nov 13, E1.615bln was allotted at average yield of 0.076% and covered
2.52 times. There will be a T-bill redemption this week of E5.769bln and
is seen to further underpin demand. Results are due to be announced
around 1040GMT.
... zbieraj pips do pipa bo jak nie to z depo będzie lipa... G."niemiaszek"
ploty i oczkiwanie sa taki ze Fed powiekszy kwote skupy czyl ze niby druknie wiecej papiera $
mala paranoja tutaj klif i ciecia beda wprowadzac a ten bedzie dalej drukowac :)obstawiam ze nic nie zrbi stopy bez zmian i nie powiekszy kwoty lecz to bankster wiec na koniec roku swoim moze pomoc pod bonusiki roznie moze byc
WYdaje się, że jak będzie ten ZEW - to będzie pionowa świeca w dół... To nie wygląda zbyt dobrze... tak więc 100pips do okolic 1.285 do 15:00 to pewnie wyrobimy... bo zmieści się w tym jeszcze Bilans handlu zagranicznego z USA i Kanady.
Quo Vadis? Już wiesz ?
"Rynek nagradza cierpliwych"
↱↴↱↴ więc siedź na dupie i czekaj↱↴↱↴↴↴
WYdaje się, że jak będzie ten ZEW - to będzie pionowa świeca w dół... To nie wygląda zbyt dobrze... tak więc 100pips do okolic 1.285 do 15:00 to pewnie wyrobimy... bo zmieści się w tym jeszcze Bilans handlu zagranicznego z USA i Kanady.
WYdaje się, że jak będzie ten ZEW - to będzie pionowa świeca w dół... To nie wygląda zbyt dobrze... tak więc 100pips do okolic 1.285 do 15:00 to pewnie wyrobimy... bo zmieści się w tym jeszcze Bilans handlu zagranicznego z USA i Kanady.
cpodobno ma byc lepszy
źródło?
dla mnie wykres +
to co się dzieje właśnie na krosach z EUR
AUD się umacnia do EUR. - będzie big drop raczej...
cena po oporem... reakcja może wpłynąć na sentyment... a później właściwie to ZEW... Nie ma zbyt wiele tego dziś.
