lolekfx pisze:Zastanawiam się czy Dolar Nowozelandzki z Jenem reaguje w jakiś silniejszy sposób na dane z gospodarki USA ?
Mógłby ktoś się wypowiedzieć na ten temat ?
reagują...
a czy silniejszy to nie wiem, w odniesieniu do czego ?
kiwi może mocno polecieć zważywszy na położenie na wykresie tygodniowym... ale nie musi
EUROPE: There Is a full calendar ahead Friday, but, undoubtedly, the
stand out of the session will be the US employment report, expected at
1330GMT. Ahead of that, the calendar kicks off at 0630GMT, when ECB
Executive Board member Joerg Asmussen takes part at a "political
breakfast," hosted by the BWG institute, in Berlin. At 0700GMT, German
third quarter labour costs data are released, followed at 0730GMT with
the release of the Bundesbank semi-annual growth forecasts. French data
is expected to hit the wires at 0745GMT, with the release of the October
foreign trade data and the government's October deficit. At 0800GMT,
German Economics Minister Philipp Roesler will give a speech at a German
economic forum, in Frankfurt, while at 0900GMT, ECB Governing Council
member Ewald Nowotny gives press conference on Austria's economic
outlook, in Vienna.ECB President Mario Draghi is scheduled to speak at 1000GMT at the
"Anchor Conference" of Magyar Nemzeti Bank, in Budapest.
The last European data release for the day is expected at 1100GMT, when
German October industrial output will cross the wires.
ECB Governing Council member Jozef Makuch is scheduled to give a press
conference on National Bank of Slovakia's 4Q forecasts, in Bratislava at
1200GMT. Also at 1500GMT, ECB Governing Council member Jens Weidmann will give a
speech on price and financial stability, in Berlin
GREECE: Greek political leaders continue in their attempts to broker a
deal over the new tax code bill, with all members of the coalition
needing to agree terms before presenting the Bill to Parliament next
wee. Adoption of the plan remains one of the hurdles to clear ahead of
the disbursement of Troika funds.
UK: UK data scheduled for release at 0930GMT includes October industrial
production, manufacturing output and the BOE/GfK NOP inflation
expectations.
UK PRESS: The continuing austerity measures in the UK will leave
ministers seeking an additional stg 10 bn in cuts for 2015/16, election
year, the FT reports.
US: The main release of the day is at 1330GMT, when US employment data is
released.Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 95,000 in November after a
171,000 rise in October. The impact of Hurricane Sandy is likely to be
seen in the payrolls, as the recent jump in jobless claims suggests.
The unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 7.9%. Hourly
earnings are expected to rise 0.1% after the flat reading in October,
while the average workweek is forecast to hold steady at 34.4 hours,
though some analyst see a downside risk due to the impact o the
hurricane.
Also at 1330GMT, Canadian data crosses the wires, with the release of
Employment data and Q3 labour productivity.
US November University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data is released
at 1455GMT. The Michigan Sentiment Index is expected to rise to a
reading of 83.0 in early-December from 82.7 in November and 82.6 in
October.
At 1500GMT, November Consumer Credit numbers will cross the wires.
Consumer credit usage is expected to rise by $11.7 billion in October,
as rising student loans should continue to add to nonrevolving credit
use. Retail sales fell 0.3%, while nonauto sales were flat, suggesting
that consumers were more cautious about spending due to the fiscal
issues and the impact of Hurricane Sandy.
EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY at $1.2966 after the rate came under pressure
on initial reaction to dovish comments from ECB Draghi at the ECB press
conference, followed by Italian political wobbles, which saw rate
pressed to a low of $1.2950. Rate had seen intraday highs of $1.3087
during the European morning. Euro-dollar came under early sell pressure
into Asia with rate touching a low at $1.29555 before picking up fresh
demand interest. Rate edged to a high of $1.2973 in lack lustre trade
before meeting resistance from offers placed into $1.2975. Rate drifted
off, finding support through the Asian afternoon at $1.2965 before
coming under fresh pressure ahead of Europe which has eased it to
$1.2960. Demand remains in place ahead of Thursday's low at $1.2950,
with weak stops placed below. Stronger demand noted from $1.2930 through
to $1.2915. Offers seen at $1.2975/80 with more lined up from $1.3000 to
$1.3030. US employment data day should keep markets fairly subdued into
the afternoon, though Italy developments could provide some volatility.
Germany IP at 1100GMT provides morning data interest.
EURO-DOLLAR: Retains its heavy tone into early European dealing, with
rate holding just off Thursday's NY low at $1.2950 (Asia low $1.2953).
Traders note that rate found support at the $1.2950 level, with bids
drawn to the 38.2% retrace of the $1.2661-1.3127 rally that comes in at
$1.2949. A break below this area to expose stops, which if triggered to
open a deeper move toward next demand interest placed between
$1.2930/15. Resistance remains at $1.2975/85.
CABLE: Closed in NY at $1.6052 after rate had been pressed lower by
deeper euro-dollar slippage, the rate seeing lows in NY at $1.6040,
though euro-sterling breaking under support at stg0.8080 to extend its
corrective pullback to a NY low at stg0.8066 diverted a good part of the
pressure. Cable came under fresh pressure in early Asia with market
probing for stops sub $1.6040, getting the rate to a low of $1.6035
before demand emerged to take rate up to $1.6057 before it settled
between $1.6050/55 in a typical subdued pre US jobs data market.
Euro-sterling consolidated its move lower, with trade overnight
contained by stg0.8070/81, pressing on the base into Europe. Cable
demand remains into $1.6040, a break to open a deeper move toward
$1.6025/15 ahead of $1.6000 and $1.5980. Resistance $1.6060 ahead of
$1.6075/85. UK IP/Mfg data due for release at 0930GMT, some suggestions
this data could show some improvement but US data overshadows.
Euro-sterling support seen at stg0.8060/50 with stops below. Resistance
stg0.8080/85, stg0.8100.
YEN: Dollar-yen enjoyed early demand interest into Asian trading Friday,
the rate pressured up from opening lows around Y82.37 to Y82.57 on Tokyo
fix interest. However, this early momentum quickly faded as move ran
into decent Japanese offers placed to Y82.60. Rate drifted off to
Y82.50/45 before getting pressed back to the opening lows ahead of the
European open. Rate was trading back at Y82.45 into Europe. Offers
remain in place into Y82.60 with stronger interest noted at Y82.80/85
with stops above. Option linked offers remain in place between Y82.95/00
protecting barrier interest at the figure. Support seen at Y82.35/30
ahead of Y82.20. Euro-yen was pressed to a low of Y106.61 in NY after
the euro came under general sell pressure following dovish comments from
ECB Draghi and Italian political wobbles. Rate closed in NY at Y106.87,
touched an early low at Y106.78 into Asia before Tokyo fix demand lifted
it on to Y107.08. Rate then settled around Y107.00 through the early
part of the Asian afternoon before coming under fresh pressure ahead of
Europe that sees it trade down to Y106.70.
JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japan's benchmark stock indices ended Friday's
session mixed. The Nikkei 225 was lower by 17.77 points, or 0.19%, at
9527.39. Just ahead of the close, the broader-based TOPIX was higher by
1.39 points at 790.13. Preliminary volume in the Nikkei stocks totalled
1.081 bn shares, with 122 issues higher, 86 lower and 17 unchanged.
KIWI: The kiwi is at $0.8321 little changed from $0.8324 early Sydney, after
testing the $0.8350 resistance in overnight trades. Following the kiwi's
outperformance in the last few days, and lack of jawboning from RBNZ Governor
Graeme Wheeler, BNZ Zealand analysts have raised their forecast for the currency
and lifted their end-2013 forecast to $0.8100 from $0.7800 as they no longer
expect the currency to head gradually lower in the second half of 2013. On a TWI
basis the kiwi is only 1% lower than 75.19 post-float peak
GOLD: Spot gold prices are trading marginally higher Friday after
posting some modest gains during the previous session. Spot gold ended
Thursday's session $5.95 higher at $1699.90/oz, but the precious metal
remains set to be heading for its second consecutive week of declines.
Spot gold prices have been tied to a narrow range so far this morning
ahead of this afternoon's US employment report, expected at 1330GMT,
with expectations for a sharp drop in job growth for November after
superstorm Sandy disrupted economic activity. The unemployment rate is
seen holding steady at 7.9%. Spot gold prices have edged their way
higher for much of the session this morning in quiet trade, advancing
from a low of $1699.20/oz to an intra-day high of $1703.95 and now trade
at $1703.30/oz, up $3.40 on the session.
OIL: January NYMEX WTI futures are trading higher Friday after posting
some heavy losses during the previous session. January WTI futures ended
Thursday's session $1.62 lower at $86.26 a barrel, with prices pressured
by worries about the US budget debate and slower economic projections
from the ECB. The EIA's bearish inventories report released late
Wednesday was also continuing to weigh on prices, reinforcing fears that
the physical market remained well supplied. January WTI prices have
tentatively edged back higher during Asian hours this morning, with
prices tied to a narrow range ahead of this afternoon's US employment
report, expected at 1330GMT. After initially printing an intra-day low
of $86.28 a barrel, January WTI futures have edged back higher to highs
of $86.63 a barrel and now currently trade at $86.54, up 28 cents on the
session.
NATURAL GAS: NYMEX January natural gas prices are trading marginally
higher Friday after correcting back lower the previous day. January
natural gas futures ended Thursday's session down 3.4 cents, or 0.9% at
$3.666 per million British thermal units (Btu) after printing an
intra-day high of $3.748 right after the EIA report, which showed total
domestic gas inventories fell last week by 73bln cubic feet (c/f) to
3.804 trillion c/f. Analysts had previously forecast an estimate of
around 64bln c/f. Despite the larger than anticipated withdrawal from US
stockpiles, January natural gas futures ended up posting some moderate
losses as prices became subject to some profit taking after Wednesday's
4.5 surge higher. This morning, natural gas prices have edged higher
from an intra-day low of $3.637 to a high of $3.684 and now trade at
just above unchanged levels at $3.670 per mln Btu.
EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- Dec 7 Greek buyback offer closes at 1700GMT; results soon thereafter
- Dec 7 ECB Draghi guest speaker at "Anchor Conference" in Budapest
- Dec 7 Bundesbank to release semi-annual growth forecast for Germany
- Dec 7 German EconMin Roesler speaks at German economic forum
- Dec 7 Portugal releases Q3 GDP data
- Dec 7 Italy PM Monti meets EU Barroso in Milan
- Dec 10 Bank of Portugal releases data on banks
- Dec 11 Spain sells 12-/18-month T-bills
- Dec 12 ECOFIN emergency meeting to discuss banking supervision
- Dec 12 Spain requested bank bailout to be disbursed
- Dec 12 ECB start of reserve maintenance period
- Dec 12 Italy T-bill auction
- Dec 13/14 EU Leaders Summit (to discuss Van Rompuy report)
- Dec 13/14 IMF and ECB hold joint conference on fiscal governance
- Dec 13 Spain bond auction
... zbieraj pips do pipa bo jak nie to z depo będzie lipa... G."niemiaszek"
MNI EURO-DOLLAR: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
$1.3127 Wednesday Dec5 high
$1.3060 Medium offers on approach $1.3040 Tech 50% $1.3127-1.2950
$1.3000-30 Medium offers reported
$1.2990/95 Medium offers
$1.2974 Int.Day high Asia
$1.2935 ***Current mkt rate 0725GMT Friday
$1.2929 Int.Day low Asia $1.2930-15 Medium demand/Stops mixed in sub $1.2920
$1.2900 Medium demand on approach
$1.2885/80 Strong demand/$1.2884 50% $1.2661-1.3127
$1.2850 Medium demand $1.2838 Tech 61.8% $1.2661-1.3127
... zbieraj pips do pipa bo jak nie to z depo będzie lipa... G."niemiaszek"
