EUROPE: Thursday's session will undoubtedly be dominated by central bank
policy decisions from both the ECB and the BOE, although no change in
policy is expected from either. Early data sees the release of French Q3
unemployment data at 0630GMT. At 0830GMT, Germany's metalworking and
engineering industry association President, Rainer Dulger, gives a press
conference on the sector outlook and next wage round, in Berlin. At
0900GMT, EMU 3Q 2nd estimate GDP data is released. German October
manufacturing orders data will cross the wires at 1100GMT. At 1245GMT,
the ECB will announce its latest policy rate decision, followed at
1330GMT by ECB President Mario Draghi press conference. The latest
comments from Governing Council members suggest that the ECB will be
persuaded to keep interest rates on hold next Thursday. But the central
bank is likely to leave open the possibility of further easing next
year, with a further downgrade in the staff projections lending the case
for an early 2013 reduction some intellectual ballast.
IRELAND: The FT noted Dublin has unveiled its 6th straight austerirty
budget, pledging to meet international bailout targets with a further
E3.5 bln in spending cuts and tax hikes.
UK OSBORNE: Economicsitutaion more difficult than hoped
- UK face difficult econ outlook, others worse - BBC
UK PRESS: The FT picks up on complaints from former Deutsche Bank
employees to US regulators, with the headline alleging the bank hid up
to $12 billion in paper losses at the height of the GFC, allowing the
bank to avoid a government bail-out. The story says the bank failed to
recognise the "losses", as it misvalued a derivatives trading position.
EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY at $1.3072 after easing away from a late
recovery high of $1.3090, the rate giving back most of its recovery
gains from early NY lows of $1.3060 into the close. Rate extended its
recovery off late NY pullback lows of $1.3064, moving up to $1.3077
before meeting decent supply from a Swiss name. Early interest to target
stops above $1.3085 caught short term specs long and added momentum to
the reversal off highs, with the break below $1.3060 triggering stops
which took rate down to $1.3045. However, traders noted that decent
demand interest was encountered into the $1.3050/45 area which cushioned
the move. Recovery was capped at the broken support of $1.3060, before
rate settled between $1.3050/60 into Europe. Bids remain at $1.3045/40
with stops below, but stronger bids at $1.3030/25. ECB rate decision (no
change expected) and accompanying press conference the focus of the day.
EURO-DOLLAR: Having held between $1.3055/60 into early Europe the rate
now seen coming under pressure as it gets squeezed down to $1.3050.
Trade in Asia earlier saw decent demand emerge in the area between
$1.3050/45, basing at $1.3045. Further demand seen in place at
$1.3045/40 with stops now in place below, which if triggered exposes
larger demand placed at $1.3030/25.
MNI EURO-DOLLAR: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
$1.3200 Strong offers on approach ($1.28-1.32 DNT structures)
$1.3172 High Sep17/Strong offers $1.3170/80
$1.3160 Medium offers/Stops
$1.3150 Medium offers
$1.3140 Strong offers (Oct17 high)
$1.3127 Wednesday Dec5 high
$1.3185 Stops
$1.3077 Int.Day high Asia/Offers in $1.3180
$1.3056 ***Current mkt rate 0700GMT Thursday
$1.3045 Int.Day low Asia
$1.3045/40 Medium demand/Stops
$1.3030-25 Strong demand
$1.3015 Stops
$1.3000 Medium demand on approach
$1.2973 Monday Dec3 low
CABLE: Closed in NY at $1.6090, after seeing pullback lows of $1.6080
post Chancellor Osborne's Autumn Statement, with strong demand into that
low keeping the rate buoyed through the session. Rate had seen a
recovery high of $1.6109 before squeezing lower into the close. Cable
recovered in early Asia, making a brief show above $1.6100, touching
$1.6101 before turning lower, marking overnight lows at $1.6087 before
settling around $1.6090. Bids remain in place into $1.6080 with market
again looking wary of challenging the area toward, with euro-sterling
consolidating its corrective pullback from Wednesday's highs of
stg0.8147 to stg0.8112, the range in Asia contained within stg0.8109/23,
opening Europe around stg0.8115. UK trade data 0930GMT provides early
interest but overshadowed by the BOE rate/QE decision at 1200GMT and
the ECB decision and press conference at 1245/1330GMT.
CABLE: Gets pressed lower, the rate moving into the recent support area
between $1.6085/80 as rate tracks euro-dollar slippage. Rate touches a
low at $1.6082, currently around $1.6085. A break below $1.6080 to
expose stops, which if triggered to open a deeper move into $1.6070/65
ahead of $1.6050.
YEN: Dollar-yen closed in NY at Y82.45, just off recovery highs at
Y82.48 after rate had bounced off Y82.05. Initial sales into Asia
pressed rate down to Y82.36 but strong demand from a US name in Tokyo
provided a solid base before the rate began to recover, with upside
momentum aided by positive moves in the Nikkei. Real money demand
was cited for triggering stops above Y82.50, the added demand lifting
the rate on to Y82.62. Rate then drifted back to the Y82.50, extending
the pullback to Y82.40 into Europe. Euro-yen closed in NY at Y107.77,
just off session highs at Y107.80 with rate under pressure into early
Asia on general euro weakness. Rate traded to a low of Y107.47 before
bouncing, the rate edging to Y107.83 before dropping back to Y107.65,
extending this corrective pullback into Europe to Y107.57. Dollar-yen
offers seen into Y82.80 with large buy stops above. Offers Y82.95/00.
JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japan's benchmark stock indices ended Thursday's
session higher. The Nikkei 225 was higher by 76.32 points, or 0.81%, at
9545.16. Just ahead of the close, the broader-based TOPIX was higher by
7.61 points at 789.47. Preliminary volume in the Nikkei stocks totalled
932.3 mn shares, with 169 issues higher, 36 lower and 20 unchanged.
GOLD: Spot gold prices are trading lower Thursday extending their
moderate losses from the previous session. Spot gold ended Wednesday's
session $3.60 lower at $1693.95/oz, pressured by some mild gains
observed in the US dollar as stalemate negotiations in Washington over
the US fiscal cliff continue to provide the main area of focus for the
market. Spot gold prices have struggled to recover over the last few
sessions after sell stop loss orders hit the market earlier on in the
week when prices breached $1710/oz and $1705/oz. Market participants now
await today's policy meeting of the European Central Bank later today
for clues on any future policy moves. Spot gold prices have continued to
extend lower during Asian hours this morning, slipping back from
intra-day highs of $1697.12/oz to lows of around $1687/oz. Metals
brokers report no flows of any significance so far this morning. Spot
gold now trades at $1689.70/oz, down $4.25 on the session.
OIL: January NYMEX WTI futures are trading marginally lower Thursday
extending their declines seen from the previous session. January WTI
futures ended Wednesday's session 62 cents lower at $87.88 a barrel,
with prices falling after government data showed US gasoline inventories
rose by the biggest weekly margin seen since September 2001, surging
7.86mln barrels to 212.12mln barrels in the week ending November 30,
sharply above the 1.8mln barrel build forecast by many analysts. WTI
prices have been tied to a narrow trading range so far this morning,
falling back from an intra-day high of $87.90 to print a fresh session
low of $87.59 a few moments ago. January WTI futures now trade at $87.61
a barrel, down 27 cents on the session.
NATURAL GAS: NYMEX January natural gas prices are trading marginally
lower Thursday after posting some decent gains during the previous
session. January natural gas futures ended Wednesday's session up 16.1
cents, or 4.5%, at $3.70 per mln British thermal units (Btu) after
trading in a $3.507 to $3.719 range. Prices became underpinned by colder
forecasts predicted for next week and by market expectations that
today's US Energy Information Administration (EIA) report may show a
large weekly inventory draw. January natural gas prices are moderately
lower in Asian trade this morning as the market attempts to consolidate
ahead of today's EIA report, due to be published at 1530GMT. January
natural gas futures have edged back from an intra-day high of $3.709 to
hold at a session low of $3.672 per mln Btu and now trade at $3.679 per
mln Btu.
FRANCE AUCTION PREVIEW: The Agence France Tresor (AFT) concludes
its medium-and long-term issuance programme for 2012, with tap of its
off-the-run 4.25% Oct 2018 OAT and 3.75% Oct 2019 OAT along with its
15-year benchmark 2.75% Oct 2027 OAT issues Thursday for E3.0bln-E4.0bln
indicative size. Strong demand is expected given the small auction size
-- but the reduced size is in line with the Dec average, given the AFT
does not conduct a BTAN auction mid-month. Demand is also seen
underpinned by forthcoming E5.49bln OAT redemption payment due on Dec
26. That said, French bonds are trading rich, with the 10-year benchmark
2.25% 2022 OAT yield hitting fresh euro life-time lows below 2.00%. For
comparison purposes, this is the first tap of the 15-year benchmark
2.75% Oct 2027 OAT that was initially sold on Sep 6 for E3.45bln at an
average yield of 2.85% and then covered 1.58 times. The 4.25% Oct 2018
OAT was last sold on Oct 4 for E1.38bln at an average yield of 1.29% and
then covered 3.82 times. The 3.75% Oct 2019 OAT was last sold on July 5
and therefore not comparable. Auction results are due after 1000GMT.
... zbieraj pips do pipa bo jak nie to z depo będzie lipa... G."niemiaszek"
Opozycyjna Partia Liberalno-Demokratyczna może w wyborach zdobyć ponad połowę mandatów w 480-osobowej izbie niższej japońskiego parlamentu, poinformowała w środę agencja Nikkei publikując najnowsze sondaże przedwyborcze. Przedterminowe wybory parlamentarne w Japonii odbędą się 16 grudnia br.
Potencjalne szanse na zdobycie większości przez Patię Liberalno-Demokratyczną odbierane jest na rynkach jako sygnał, że nowy japoński rząd będzie z dużo większą siłę naciskał na Bank Japonii w celu wymuszenia kontynuacji prowadzenia luźnej polityki pieniężnej. Taką interpretację można zauważyć na rynku walutowym, gdzie w środę kurs USD/JPY wzrósł z 81,88 do 82,41 jenów na koniec dnia.
core pisze:Korekta na JPY to raczej okazja do kupna.
Opozycyjna Partia Liberalno-Demokratyczna może w wyborach zdobyć ponad połowę mandatów w 480-osobowej izbie niższej japońskiego parlamentu, poinformowała w środę agencja Nikkei publikując najnowsze sondaże przedwyborcze. Przedterminowe wybory parlamentarne w Japonii odbędą się 16 grudnia br.
Potencjalne szanse na zdobycie większości przez Patię Liberalno-Demokratyczną odbierane jest na rynkach jako sygnał, że nowy japoński rząd będzie z dużo większą siłę naciskał na Bank Japonii w celu wymuszenia kontynuacji prowadzenia luźnej polityki pieniężnej. Taką interpretację można zauważyć na rynku walutowym, gdzie w środę kurs USD/JPY wzrósł z 81,88 do 82,41 jenów na koniec dnia.
właśnie właśnie siedze na e/j na pozycji S 107,73 - dałam sl 107,30 - DOJDZIE?
chodź z tym luzowaniem to i tak jak już zaczną w przyszłym roku!!!( na wiosnę)
core pisze:Korekta na JPY to raczej okazja do kupna.
Opozycyjna Partia Liberalno-Demokratyczna może w wyborach zdobyć ponad połowę mandatów w 480-osobowej izbie niższej japońskiego parlamentu, poinformowała w środę agencja Nikkei publikując najnowsze sondaże przedwyborcze. Przedterminowe wybory parlamentarne w Japonii odbędą się 16 grudnia br.
Potencjalne szanse na zdobycie większości przez Patię Liberalno-Demokratyczną odbierane jest na rynkach jako sygnał, że nowy japoński rząd będzie z dużo większą siłę naciskał na Bank Japonii w celu wymuszenia kontynuacji prowadzenia luźnej polityki pieniężnej. Taką interpretację można zauważyć na rynku walutowym, gdzie w środę kurs USD/JPY wzrósł z 81,88 do 82,41 jenów na koniec dnia.
właśnie właśnie siedze na e/j na pozycji S 107,73 - dałam sl 107,30 - DOJDZIE?
chodź z tym luzowaniem to i tak jak już zaczną w przyszłym roku!!!( na wiosnę)
core pisze:Korekta na JPY to raczej okazja do kupna.
Opozycyjna Partia Liberalno-Demokratyczna może w wyborach zdobyć ponad połowę mandatów w 480-osobowej izbie niższej japońskiego parlamentu, poinformowała w środę agencja Nikkei publikując najnowsze sondaże przedwyborcze. Przedterminowe wybory parlamentarne w Japonii odbędą się 16 grudnia br.
Potencjalne szanse na zdobycie większości przez Patię Liberalno-Demokratyczną odbierane jest na rynkach jako sygnał, że nowy japoński rząd będzie z dużo większą siłę naciskał na Bank Japonii w celu wymuszenia kontynuacji prowadzenia luźnej polityki pieniężnej. Taką interpretację można zauważyć na rynku walutowym, gdzie w środę kurs USD/JPY wzrósł z 81,88 do 82,41 jenów na koniec dnia.
właśnie właśnie siedze na e/j na pozycji S 107,73 - dałam sl 107,30 - DOJDZIE?
chodź z tym luzowaniem to i tak jak już zaczną w przyszłym roku!!!( na wiosnę)
Patrz na edka, czy wybroni 1,3020-40.
Ostatnio zbyt wiele czasu poświecam na czytanie forum i mi się system zmiksował:) Wczoraj zrobiłęm sobie przerwe. Jak dla mnie edek zejdzie gdzieś w okolice 1,3030 i wtedy pomyślę co zrobić. Powinno być odbicie.
Zawsze mam cele nad którymi pracuję - musisz do czegoś dążyć (Kevin Keegen)
- dlaczego nie idzie do góry chodz jestem na s z pozycja 1,6128
