DayTrading: Piątek 26.10.2012

[niemiaszek]

Hello


EUROPE: There is a fairly light calendar of data to close out the week,
with US 3Q GDP and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment report
likely to provide the main area of focus. At 0600GMT we see the release
of Germany September import prices. The German GfK November consumer
confidence report is due to be published at 0610GMT. At 0645GMT,
France's October consumer confidence survey is due along with their
October quarterly industry survey. Italy's September business survey is
due to hit the wires at 0800GMT. At 0800GMT, ECB Executive Board member
Peter Praet is due to give a keynote speech at an event entitled "The
Effect of Tighter Regulatory Requirements on Bank Profitability and
Risk-Taking Incentives", in Milan. At 1000GMT, German Finance Minister
Wolfgang Schaeuble is likely to speak in parliament on financial market
stability, due to be conducted in Berlin. At 1130GMT, German government
chief spokesman Steffen Seibert is providing a background briefing for
foreign press in Berlin.

GREECE: Greek property owners are finding increasingly difficult to find
tenants, eKathimerini says, with close to 300,000 properties standing
empty.




UK: At 0600GMT we see the release of John Lewis sales in the UK for
October 20 week, The only other scheduled UK data is the release of the
UK October Land Registry House Price Index, due at 1000GMT.

UK: Moody's Investors Service confirms the A2/Prime-1 debt and
deposit ratings of Santander UK Plc. The outlook on the A2 senior debt
and deposit rating is negative, reflecting Moody's medium-term view of
lower systemic support for large U.K. banks, Moody's said.

UK PRESS: The FT noted direct bidding interest at this week's UST
auctions hit record levels, with indirects accounting for almost $40 bn
at the $99 bn sale of 2,5 and 7-year paper.



US: US data kicks off at 1230GMT, with the advanced report for third
quarter GDP, which is expected to show growth of just under 2.0%. Even
meeting expectations would likely come as a relief to markets, after the
third estimate of the last quarter's figure showed a surprisingly low
1.3% growth rate. The University of Michigan will also release its final
October consumer sentiment report at 1355GMT, and will be worth watching
after the surprise surge in the preliminary release. Consumer
confidence, along with sub-8.0% unemployment and better housing data,
have given the economic recovery some real teeth. The question, as
always, is whether consumption and further job gains will follow. Late
US data sees the release of US C&I loans at 2015GMT.

US PRESS: The investigation into LIBOR wrongdoings is spreading in the
US, with a further 9 banks subpoenaed, the WSJ reports.



EURO-DOLLAR: Euro-dollar headed lower throughout the US afternoon, the
rate printed $1.2970 on release of early data that came in-line with
expectations. The pair extended losses on denied talk of a US ratings
downgrade by Fitch, the S&P downgrade of SocGen/Credit Agricole added
further weight and euro-dollar closed in NY at session lows of $1.2927.
Risk appetite increased and the rate bounced in early Asian trade,
extending recovery attempts to $1.2956. Sharp cross sales after the
Tokyo fix pared some gains and the rate remained in consolidation mode
ahead of Europe. Traders look to release of US GDP data at 1230GMT which
is expected to show growth of just under 2.0%. Even meeting expectations
would likely come as a relief to markets, after the third estimate of
the last quarter's figure showed a surprisingly low 1.3% growth rate. On
the downside support seen into $1.2920, a break opens $1.2906 (23.6% of
$1.2043-1.3172). Tech resistance at $1.2969 (21 dma), ahead of offers at
$1.2980 ($1.2978 - 5 dma).


CABLE: Cable consolidated post UK GDP gains to close in NY around
$1.6120, the rate recovered from a pullback low of $1.6111 after
slipping on denied talk of a US downgrade. Euro-sterling remained on the
defensive and ground lower throughout the session to close at stg0.8019.
After a quiet start to Asian trade cable picked up momentum and lifted
in tandem with euro-dollar to highs of $1.6133. Market sentiment
turned and as equities headed lower and cross sales weighed on markets,
the pair eased to $1.6120, extending to $1.6106. Support ahead of
$1.6100 helped recovery attempts and cable settled in a tight range
ahead of Europe. A break on the downside opens bids at $1.6080, ahead of
$1.6077/64 (21 dma, Former 23.6% of $1.5269-1.6309). Early demand in
Asia lifted euro-sterling off NY lows, where the pair consolidated in a
tight stg0.8024-8032 range. Strong support seen at stg0.8000 with stops
set on a break.


DOLLAR-YEN: Dollar-yen closed in NY at fresh 4 month highs of Y80.34,
the rate recovered from a pullback low of Y79.95 after slipping on
denied talk of a US downgrade. Euro-yen largely tracked dollar moves and
slipped to Y103.53, before demand in the dip aided the extended recovery
throughout the US afternoon to close around Y103.95. Dollar-yen ground
higher on the Asian open to Y80.38, before meeting strong supply from
Japanese banks, US name sales added weight and the pair eased to Y80.17.
Demand ahead of the Tokyo fix was met by sharp cross sales and dollar
extended the recovery pullback off session highs to print Y80.00.
Support in the dip tapped higher as the pair looks to consolidate recent
session gains and hold above Y80.00. Early demand lifted euro-yen above
Y104.04 in light Asian trade, before falling in tandem with the dollar
ahead of the Tokyo fix. Cross sales weighed in afternoon dealings and
the pair sat heavy around session lows of Y103.50.

JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japan's benchmark stock indices ended Friday's
session lower. The Nikkei 225 was lower by 122.14 points, or 1.35%, at
8933.06. Just ahead of the close, the broader-based TOPIX was lower by
9.78 points at 741.64. Preliminary volume in the Nikkei stocks totalled
1.159 bn shares, with 16 issues higher, 201 lower and 8 unchanged.
JAPAN STOCKS: The Nikkei 225 index ends down 1.35% at 8933.06.


GOLD: Spot gold prices are trading lower Friday after staging a modest
recovery during the previous session. Spot gold ended Thursday's session
$10.15 higher at $1712.10/oz after prices stalled around $1718/oz ahead
of resistance that had been present around $1721/22 for much of the day.
Gold prices have been in a steady decline for the second half of the
Asian session this morning, with a risk off theme building as we go into
the European opening, with European bourses due to open lower and some
extended moves lower observed in oil markets. A strong showing from the
US dollar is also hampering bullion prices, with FX pair euro-dollar
showing some weakness early on. Spot gold has fallen back from a session
high of $1715/oz to now trade near its intra-day lows at $1701.70/oz,
down $10.40 on the session. Support is anticipated at $1692/93 with sell
stops present around a breach of $1690/oz. Offers remain above the
market around $1721/22 with light offers also present around $1712/oz.


OIL: December NYMEX WTI prices are trading sharply lower Friday after
posting some moderate gains the previous day. December WTI futures ended
Thursday's session 32 cents higher at $86.05 a barrel fading after some
earlier gains. Prices have been in a steady decline during Asian traded
hours this morning with a risk off mode gathering momentum at the tail
end of the Asian session. WTI has extended its losses from highs of
$86.29 a barrel to trade an intra-day low of $85.07 as abundant supply,
seen in the EIA's weekly storage report on Wednesday, continues to weigh
on oil markets in addition to a risk off theme anticipated early on
during the European session, with European bourses all called lower on
the opening. Oil markets have shown no concern, so far, to Hurricane
Sandy which slammed Cuba and made its way towards the US East Coast
yesterday. December NYMEX WTI futures now trade at $85.25 a barrel, down
80 cents on the session.


NATURAL GAS: NYMEX November natural gas futures are trading just above
unchanged levels Friday after posting some slim losses during the
previous day. November natural gas futures, which expire on Monday,
ended Thursday's session down 1.6 cents at $3.434 per million British
thermal units (Btu) after falling to an intra-day low of $3.36 shortly
after the EIA report was published, before staging a modest recovery by
the close. Although the storage report came in quite neutral, market
participants appear to be looking ahead to the next two weeks of builds
that could see storage drive to a new all-time high. Natural gas prices
have been tied to a narrow range so far this morning, edging their way
higher from an intra-day low of $3.424 to print a session high of $3.442
a few moments ago, with the market currently trading $3.438 per mln Btu,
up a fraction from last night's close of $3.434 per mln Btu.


FX: Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut,
* Euro-dollar; $1.2900, $1.2910, $1.3000, $1.3075
* Cable; $1.6000, $1.6140
* Aussie; $1.0250, $1.0350, $1.0400
* Dollar-yen; Y79.30, Y80.00, Y80.20
* Euro-yen; Y103.45, Y103.50
* Euro-sterling; stg0.8135, stg0.8150
* Kiwi-dollar; Nz$0.8185

[Mpapiez]

Średnie te dane.

I teraz magiczny poziom się zbliża. 1.2920 mamy silne wsparcie. Ja tam sobie pod nie zagram dość mocno.
Poniżej są sell stopy. Jak je wybiją to lecim ładnie.

Trochę strzał z mojej strony. Bo to miejsce jest idealne do walenia i eSek i Longów.


@MarekDT

Wszystko spoko, tylko w mojej ocenie właśnie wszyscy liczą na takie zagranie i dlatego można ładnie wszystkim stopy w górę powywalać. Ja się staram trochę kombinować, bo tu nie ma łatwej kasy i większość z założenia ma stracić.

Moim zdaniem ta godzinowa świeczka będzie decydująca. Jak się z niej zrobi młotek lub doji, to może wybiją jeszcze do góry, jak pójdzie kolejny engulfing w dół, to ja dziś sobie już odpuszczam .



Ps. Ale walka na tym poziomie ...

Ps2. Emocje jak na grzybobraniu ! Wywali te stopy pod "15" czy nie ...

[niemiaszek]

wersja poglądowa AT


26-paź-2012 7:02
MNI EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Focus On July Support Line
RES 4: $1.3139/40 May 1 trend-line, Oct 17 high
RES 3: $1.3110 Upper Bollinger Band
RES 2: $1.3072/84 High Oct 5, Oct 22
RES 1: $1.2969/78 21-day moving average, 5-day moving average
LATEST PRICE: $1.2938
SUP 1: $1.2895/906 July support line, 23.6% Fibonacci of $1.2043-1.3172
SUP 2: $1.2826/28/36 Low Oct 11, Lower Bolli band, 200-DMA
SUP 3: $1.2795/803 55-DMA, Low 1 Oct
SUP 4: $1.2741 38.2% retracement of Jul/Sep rally
COMMENTARY: Euro-dollar approaches the Jul support line, now initial
support at $1.2895, alongside the 23.6% Fibonacci at $1.2906. Daily tech
studies are bearish, momentum has crossed below the key "zero-line", a
bearish signal. A break below the Jul support line should target the
200-DMA at $1.2836, however, Euro-dollar remains bullish until the Jul
support line is confirmed to be broken. Initial res at the 21-DMA.


26-paź-2012 7:10
MNI CABLE TECHS: Focus On Test Of The Falling Sep 21 Trend-Line
RES 4: $1.6273/79 High Sep 28, Apr 2011 res line
RES 3: $1.6202/18 Upper Bollinger band, High 5 Oct
RES 2: $1.6178 High Oct 17
RES 1: $1.6129 Sep 21 trend-line
LATEST PRICE: $1.6121
SUP 1: $1.6049/64/77 5-DMA, Frmer 23.6% of $1.5269-1.6309, 21-DMA
SUP 2: $1.5997/6006 Lows 9 & 10 Oct, 55-day moving average
SUP 3: $1.5952 Lower Bolli band
SUP 4: $1.5912 38.2% of $1.5269-$1.6309 move & High Aug 23
COMMENTARY: Cable posted another day of impressive gains, to rise up to
the Sep 21 trendline before consolidating. Price action today tests the
falling trendline again, initial resistance at $1.6129, a very close
resistance level, but a key level. A break above here would target the
upper daily Bollinger band at $1.6202. Daily tech studies are bullish,
so focus is firmly on testing the Sep 21 trendline.


26-paź-2012 7:28
MNI DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Tests Key Y80.00 As Support, Studies Weaken
RES 4: Y81.78 High Apr 20
RES 3: Y81.49 61.8% Fibonacci of Mar/Sep decline
RES 2: Y80.55/62/65 Highs May 15, Jun 25, 50% Fibo Of Mar/Sep decline
RES 1: Y80.34/38 Oct 25 and Oct 26 highs
LATEST PRICE: Y80.08
SUP 1: Y80.00 High Oct 23
SUP 2: Y79.87 Former Oct 5 resistance line - now support
SUP 3: Y79.66 August high
SUP 4: Y79.40/50 23.6% Fibonacci of Sep/Oct rally, 200-DMA, Tenkan Line
COMMENTARY: Dollar-yen retests the Y80.00 level, but now support. We
note the potential for a dark cloud cover or bearish engulfing candle
pattern, especially as daily tech studies look stretched and a touch
weaker. Further support seen as the former Oct 5 resistance line at
Y79.87. However, dollar-yen remains bullish while above the key Y80.00
level and former Oct 5 res line, we see initial res at Y80.34/38.


26-paź-2012 7:40
MNI EURO-YEN TECHS: Daily Studies Turning Lower
RES 4: Y107.21 76.4% Fibonacci of Mar/Jul decline
RES 3: Y105.65 Low Mar 6
RES 2: Y104.59/67/71 High Oct 23, Sep 17 Res ln, 61.8% Fib Mar/Jul fall
RES 1: Y104.39 Rising channel upper
LATEST PRICE: Y103.60
SUP 1: Y103.20 Tenkan Line
SUP 2: Y102.07/11/29 200-DMA, Kijun line, 21-DMA
SUP 3: Y101.34 Rising Jul Channel base
SUP 4: Y101.24 Ichimoku Coud top
COMMENTARY: Euro-yen tested the upper rising channel but closed below,
the channel upper remains initial resistance at Y104.39. We've drawn a
new resistance line from the Sep 17 high to the Oct 23 high, this comes
in at Y104.67, forming further resistance with the Oct 23 high and 61.8%
Fibonacci of the Mar/Jul decline. However, daily tech studies are
turning lower and initial support seen as the Tenkan line at Y103.20.



EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- Oct ? France President Hollande to visit Greek PM Samaras
- Oct 26 Italy sells CTZ/linker bonds for up to E4.0bln
- Oct 26 Italy Sep business survey
- Oct 26 Spain Q3 unemployment rate
- Oct 29 Spain floater bond redemption for E5.299bln
- Oct 29 Spain Rajoy meets Italy's Monti in Madrid
- Oct 29 Italy T-bill auction
- Oct 29/30 G20 sherpas meeting
- Oct 30 Spain Q3 provisional GDP data
- Oct 30 Spain Sep TYD budget report
- Oct 30 Italy sells new 5-year BTP and taps 10-year BTP up to E7.0bln
- Oct 30 Italy FinMin and debt chief Cannata speaks at Euromoney conf
- Oct 31 Spain bond redemption for E14.967bln
- Oct 31 Italy T-bill redemption for E9.235bln
- Oct 31 Portugal votes on the 2013 budget

[expedient warzywniaka]

Średnie te dane.

I teraz magiczny poziom się zbliża. 1.2920 mamy silne wsparcie. Ja tam sobie pod nie zagram dość mocno.
Poniżej są sell stopy. Jak je wybiją to lecim ładnie.

Trochę strzał z mojej strony. Bo to miejsce jest idealne do walenia i eSek i Longów.


@MarekDT

Wszystko spoko, tylko w mojej ocenie właśnie wszyscy liczą na takie zagranie i dlatego można ładnie wszystkim stopy w górę powywalać. Ja się staram trochę kombinować, bo tu nie ma łatwej kasy i większość z założenia ma stracić.

Moim zdaniem ta godzinowa świeczka będzie decydująca. Jak się z niej zrobi młotek lub doji, to może wybiją jeszcze do góry, jak pójdzie kolejny engulfing w dół, to ja dziś sobie już odpuszczam .



Ps. Ale walka na tym poziomie ...

Ps2. Emocje jak na grzybobraniu ! Wywali te stopy pod "15" czy nie ...

Ja mam pytanie. Na jakiej podstawie tak sobie wartościujesz "ważny/nie ważny"? Przecież i tak zawsze jest 50/50, że będzie dokładnie inaczej, niz zadkladales. A "wazne/niewazne" angazuje tylko emocje...

[MERLIN]

Średnie te dane.

I teraz magiczny poziom się zbliża. 1.2920 mamy silne wsparcie. Ja tam sobie pod nie zagram dość mocno.
Poniżej są sell stopy. Jak je wybiją to lecim ładnie.

Trochę strzał z mojej strony. Bo to miejsce jest idealne do walenia i eSek i Longów.


@MarekDT

Wszystko spoko, tylko w mojej ocenie właśnie wszyscy liczą na takie zagranie i dlatego można ładnie wszystkim stopy w górę powywalać. Ja się staram trochę kombinować, bo tu nie ma łatwej kasy i większość z założenia ma stracić.

Moim zdaniem ta godzinowa świeczka będzie decydująca. Jak się z niej zrobi młotek lub doji, to może wybiją jeszcze do góry, jak pójdzie kolejny engulfing w dół, to ja dziś sobie już odpuszczam .

Dzień dobry ,obecnie4 na edku usiłują doprowadzić do wykończenia formacji NIETOPERZA ,formacji pro wzrostowej

[expedient warzywniaka]

Średnie te dane.

I teraz magiczny poziom się zbliża. 1.2920 mamy silne wsparcie. Ja tam sobie pod nie zagram dość mocno.
Poniżej są sell stopy. Jak je wybiją to lecim ładnie.

Trochę strzał z mojej strony. Bo to miejsce jest idealne do walenia i eSek i Longów.


@MarekDT

Wszystko spoko, tylko w mojej ocenie właśnie wszyscy liczą na takie zagranie i dlatego można ładnie wszystkim stopy w górę powywalać. Ja się staram trochę kombinować, bo tu nie ma łatwej kasy i większość z założenia ma stracić.

Moim zdaniem ta godzinowa świeczka będzie decydująca. Jak się z niej zrobi młotek lub doji, to może wybiją jeszcze do góry, jak pójdzie kolejny engulfing w dół, to ja dziś sobie już odpuszczam .

Dzień dobry ,obecnie4 na edku usiłują doprowadzić do wykończenia formacji NIETOPERZA ,formacji pro wzrostowej

jaki procent sprawdzalności? bo ciagle ktos rysuje przeczace sobie harmoniczne dla tej samej pary

[mocek1989]

co sądzicie o gbp/usd? jest szansa na spadek zgodnie z linią trendu spadkowego ?

[Mpapiez]

Ja mam pytanie. Na jakiej podstawie tak sobie wartościujesz "ważny/nie ważny"? Przecież i tak zawsze jest 50/50, że będzie dokładnie inaczej, niz zadkladales. A "wazne/niewazne" angazuje tylko emocje...

Prócz swoich bazgrołów na wykresie, sprawdzam poziomy na fx live.
Była informacja że tam jest silne wsparcie techniczne. Poza tym popatrz w lewo na wykresie. 1.2920 było swego rodzaju pivotem.

Pi razy drzwi się zgadzało z moim rysunkiem. Poniżej tego poziomu by pewnie spadło bankowo do 1.2890 i niżej.

I nie - nie zawsze jest 50 na 50 bo są jeszcze inne sygnały. Np przebiegająca niżej linia trendu D1 (zwykle nie korzystam, ale ta jest istotna). Popatrz np. Na strategie pitchforka. Tam gość przebicie lini środkowej widelca oceniał jako około 25-30% szans.

Ja nigdy nie gram na 1 sygnale. Minimum 3 z moich 5 musi mówić o danym kierunku. W tej elce jest to support, LT i niskie RSI.

Powodzonka.

[MERLIN]

expedient warzywniaka z tym to bywa różnie ,bo potrafią nie dojechać do poziomu lub go minimalnie przestrzelić i zawrócić ,oprócz tego mamy na edku prostą formacje AB=CD co pokrywa się z zasięgiem nietoperza trzeba być czujnym

[expedient warzywniaka]

2890
2800-2820

poziomy dla długich; nic innego nie wchodzi dzis dla mnie w gre

-- Dodano: pt 26-10-2012, 9:11 --

Ja nigdy nie gram na 1 sygnale. Minimum 3 z moich 5 musi mówić o danym kierunku. W tej elce jest to support, LT i niskie RSI.
Powodzonka.

Dzieki, wzajemnie. Tak samo.