Pogaduchy przy porannej kawie

[niemiaszek]

US TSYS/10Y: WI 10-year notes now are at 1.719% bid, and only need
to back up a few basis points before the Wed 1pm ET US$21B 10Y reopening
auction, said some traders. "I think they will have interest at 1.75%,"
summarized one trader. Traders still believe that US types (hedge/mutual
funds) bought the Tues 3Y note auction amid safe-haven bid on European
worries and/or US political worries. "The 3-year level itself was fine,"
said one trader. Meanwhile 10Y note reopening also should be aided by a
good bid from repo, which has endured for weeks, said traders. "There is
just not enough paper around," said one trader.

[259]

O wilku mowa:

Earnings season starts after the stockmarket close
Written by Adam Button
October 9, 2012 at 18:58 GMT

Watch out for Alcoa earnings after the US stock market closes. The company is a bellwether for markets and the global economy.

The aluminum-maker is expected to earn 6-cents (ex-items) on $5.62 billion in revenue.

The broader market will key in on revenue and comments about the global economy/China. Yesterday, Rio Tinto cut its forecast for Chinese growth.

[259]

Alcoa (AA) Q3 EPS USD 0.03 vs. Exp. USD 0.00
US Equities
- Q3 revenues USD 5.80bln vs. Exp. USD 5.56bln
- Cuts 2012 global aluminium demand forecast to 6% vs. 7%.
- Cites slowdown in China’s H2 view on global demand.
- Still sees aluminium demand doubling 2010-2020.

[259]

Tygodniowy rozkład jazdy:

1) Niedziela-Poniedziałek - risk off
2) Wtorek - risk off
3) Środa - risk off z przejściem w on
4) Czwartek risk on
5) Piątek - apogeum risk on.

Jak na razie pkt. 1 i 2 zaliczone

[259]

French August Industrial output rises 1.5% m/m
Written by Pete Jackson
October 10, 2012 at 06:48 GMT

Well above forecasts of -0.2/flat (Reuters/DJ), and an upward revision of +o.6% in July

MFG output rose 1.8% m/min August from an upward revision of 1.0% in July

Hura! Francuzom udało się jednak coś wyprodukować w przerwach pomiędzy wolnym, wakacjami, a… przerwami
W nocy był też lepszy Westpack Consumer Confidence - małe ale cieszy, Kangurek dostał drugą szansę, zwłaszcza od czasu jak EURAUD dostal zadyszki ;-)

Today’s orderboard
Written by Pete Jackson
October 10, 2012 at 06:38 GMT
EUR/USD:   Bids 1.2820/30(200 day MA 1.2822) sell stops below and through  1.2800 ahead of bids tech supp 1.2750/60 (lows  10/11 Sept). Offers 1.2880/00 and 1.2930/40
GBP/USD:   Bids 1.5975/85 and 1.5850/60 (Asian sovereigns). Sell stops below ahead of tech support 1.5910/15 (1.5914 – 55 day MA). Sell stops again through 1.5900. Offers 1.6000/10 and 1.6040/50
EUR/GBP:  Bids 0.8030/40 and 0.8000/10. Offers 0.8050/60 and 0.8090/00, possible buy stops just above ahead of 200 day MA at 0.8118.,
USD/JPY: Bids 78.00/10 (real money, semi official, Swiss names), sell stops below through 77.90. more bids below 77.50/60. Offers 78.40/50 (55 day MA 78.41) buy stops through 78.65 ahead of offers 78.80 up to 79.00 (78.79- 100 day MA), and buy stops through 79.10. More buy stops through 200 day MA at 79.36.
EUR/JPY: Offers/tech res 100.80/00(100.91 kijun line) and 101.40/50. Bids 100.40/50 larger at 100.00/10 with sell stops below
AUD/JPY: Bids 79.75/85 and 79.40/50 sell stops below, offers 80.00/05 and 80.25/30 (Japanese banks) ahead of tech res 80.75/80 (80.78- 100 day MA) and 81.00/10
AUD/USD: Weak sell stops through 1.0200 ahead of bids 1.0180/90. Sell stops below ahead of bids 1.0150/60 (barrier 1.0150) with further sell stops on a break.  Offers 1.0240/50 (real money, also 100 day MA 1.0258) buy stops above ahead of more offers 1.0265/75,  and further buy stops just above.
EUR/AUD: Bids 1.2570/80 (1.2577- 50% fibo  Sept 27-Oct 7 rally) and tech supp 1.2650/55 ahead of 1.2510/20 (61.8% fibo  1.2518). Offers/tech res  1.2615/25 and 1.2665/75
EUR/CHF : Bids 1.2080/00 sell stops just below, Offers 1.2130/50

[Esco]

FX: Option expiries for today's 1000EDT cut,
* Euro-dollar; $1.2880, $1.2900, $1.3000, $1.3150(large)
* Dollar-yen; Y78.25, Y78.55, Y78.60, Y79.00
* Euro-yen; Y100.00, Y99.95
* Cable; $1.6000, $1.6050
* Dollar-Swiss; Chf0.9375, Chf0.9350
* Aussie; $1.0115, $1.0150, $1.0250

[259]

Włosi też coś wyprodukowali:

Italy August Industry Output +1.7% M/M, Wda -5.2% Y/Y
By Gerry Davies || October 10, 2012 at 08:02 GMT

Demonstrably stronger than Reuter’s median forecasts of -0.4%, -10.1% respectively.

Risk on
Ale uwaga - to są dane za Sierpień.
W Sierpieniu Peugot jeszcze nie zwalniał...

[259]

Poland's PM Tusk says EUR/PLN around 4.5 would be safe for economy

Co takiego? EURPLN jest teraz 4.0857/907
O co mu chodzi? Osłabić złotego żeby dług stał się tańszy, a eksport bardziej konkurencyjny?
Ale to jest prawie 50 centów różnicy, ponad 10% różnicy, co on pie…rzy..

EDIT: 4.5 było w szczycie paniki Europejskiej w Grudniu 2011 roku. Jakby teraz złotówka zaczęła tak spadać, wszyscy wzięliby to za objaw zapaści bo inaczej nie dałoby się tego zrobić/wytłumaczyć i zaraz zaczęli masowo sprzedawać nasz dług. W efekcie stopy poszybowałyby w górę i zamiast taniego długu zrobiłby się bardzo drogi.

[Esco]

MNI AUSSIE-DOLLAR: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
$1.0320 Strong offers
$1.0300 Strong offers, stops
$1.0290 Medium offers
$1.0270/80 Near-term top, stops
$1.0258 100 dma
$1.0250 Strong offers Custodial names, stops
$1.0246 European high
$1.0224 ***Current market price 1016GMT Wednesday
$1.0210/09 European low, 5 dma
$1.0200 Medium demand
$1.0183 Asian low
$1.0180 Corporate demand
$1.0170 Strong demand
$1.0150 Strong demand, stops
$1.0130 Strong demand

[259]

I see Goldmans (at least one Goldman analyst) is ultra bearish on AUD. Calling long EURAUD a potential trade of the century. Maybe his new to the job, a junior technical analyst.