Pogaduchy przy porannej kawie

[Stforex]

W ECB jest tzw. overnight deposit. Było 800 mld, po różnych fluktuacjach jest 500 mld. Ja bym szukał w RBA .

Czy to była kasa na obrót FX? Tego nie wiem.

Inna sprawa, kryzys. Ile obrotu mogli robić importerzy, eksporterzy, korporacje wielonarodowe, pożyczki i zamówienia publiczne? Teraz się to wszystko tnie.

Ile zamówień na rynkach surowców przechodziło przez FX?

A banki? Przepływy między filiami? Zobacz, że najbardziej zyskiwał AUD. Myślę, że kasa parkowała i czekała.

Jeśli z FX zniknęło 30% obrotu, to jeśli ma on wkrótce wrócić, to nie mogą to być instrumenty, w których zamraża się kasę na dłużej. Może krótkie obligi? Bardzo popularne ostatnio. Portugalskie? Hiszpańskie?

[259]

Złoto zachowuje się jak tłum przy bandzie z drutem kolczastym: jest ciśnienie w górę, ale ci z przodu co widzą $1800 cofają się żeby nie obudzić paru takich co dali im już tam kiedyś popalić. Ale z tyłu tłum ciągle pcha... ;-)

[Stforex]

Bo bandy mają prowadzić bydło w jedno konkretne miejsce... niekoniecznie tam, gdzie chce bydło

[259]

AUD/USD remains bogged down by the EUR/AUD, but the going is getting tough for AUD bears to break down 1.0200 again, with decent bids around the level, despite the dip to1.10183 in Asia on poor o/n retail sales data.

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/10/0 ... decisions/

[Esco]

Bo bandy mają prowadzić bydło w jedno konkretne miejsce... niekoniecznie tam, gdzie chce bydło

Zazwyczaj do rzeźni.

Jeśli z FX zniknęło 30% obrotu, to jeśli ma on wkrótce wrócić, to nie mogą to być instrumenty, w których zamraża się kasę na dłużej. Może krótkie obligi? Bardzo popularne ostatnio. Portugalskie? Hiszpańskie?

[niemiaszek]

ECB: Ahead of the ECB rate decision Thur, below are some analyst
expectations. Eonia is pricing in a 3% chance of 25bps hike:
- Rabobank: 25bp cut in refi, no change in deposit rate, but could
postpone decision to Nov. Expect further liquidity measures in Dec.
- Barclays: No changed in refi and deposit rate. Expect 25bps cut in
Refi rate only at December meeting.
- Santander: No change, look for 25bps cut in refi rate at Dec meeting.
- RBS: No rate cuts, look for some collateral easing
- Daiwa: To hold key policy rates unchanged. Expect another LTRO in Nov.
- BNP: Both refi and deposit rate on hold, press conference do little to
encourage expectations of a cut.
- Soc Gen: Probably do nothing more yet, expect Draghi to sound dovish
and supportive of EURO's survival at press conference.

[Stforex]

08:37 ECB's Draghi says current inflationary levels should be transitory, no 2nd round effects
08:36 ECB's Draghi says growth risks are to the downside, risks should be contained by effective action by policymakers
08:34 ECB's Draghi says ready to undertake OMTs once prerequisites are in place
08:32 ECB's Draghi says OMT announcement has helped alleviate tensions in recent weeks
08:31 ECB's Draghi says inflation rates to remain above 2% through 2013 and Euro-region inflation to fall below 2% in 2013

Z dołu do góry wg świeżości.

ECB DRAGHI: Any voluntary restruct of ECB holding is mon financing -- We are ready with our OMT -- Have fully effective backstop mechanism -- Extending greek maturities would be monetary financing -- Govts made substantial progress on various fronts

ECB DRAGHI: On ECB minutes: It's a complex process; thinking about it -- Pros and cons to publishing ECB minutes earlier -- ECB already a very transparent institution -- Must value and assess meaning of publishing minutes

ECB DRAGHI: There was no discussion so int rate decision unanimous

ECB DRAGHI: No discussion of rate cut today -- Won't comment on whether spain yields appropriate now

ECB DRAGHI: Structural reforms as needed as fiscal adjustment -- Noticeable progress being made in labor unit costs -- Must push ahead with european institution building

ECB DRAGHI: EMU countries progressing w/fiscal consolidation

ECB DRAGHI: In some EMU countries segmentation limits credit supply -- Essential to keep strengthening banks' resilience -- Price devels shld stay in line w/price stab in mid-term

ECB DRAGHI: Subdued loan dynamics reflect weak outlook for GDP

14:50 * DJ Draghi: Conditionality Central Part Of OMT Program 14:51:25
14:51 * DJ Draghi: Conditionality Protects ECB's Independence 14:51:29
14:48 * DJ Draghi: "Today We Are Ready With OMTs, Have A Full Backstop In Place" 14:51:40
14:52 * DJ Draghi: Youth Unemployment 'Incredible Waste of Resources'

ECB DRAGHI: Portugal reform agenda is firmly in place
ECB DRAGHI: ECB fully in sync w/BBK's tradition of ensuring pr stab -- Portugal an example of significant progress -- Very very significant progress taken place in Portugal
ECB DRAGHI: Spain example of where significant progress taken place -- but Spain still facing significant challenges
ECB DRAGHI: Must see if we can repair the monpol transmission mech. -- Won't speculate on future changes in interest rates -- Rate of change in prices in line with price stability -- Discussion was very constructive all across the board
ECB DRAGHI: Cutting rates is a purely hypothetical question

09:02 ECB's Draghi says OMT wouldn't apply to countries under programmes and would only apply on full market access
09:00 ECB's Draghi says we would seek IMF involvement in process if aid requested
ECB's Draghi says substantial improvement across financial markets and interest rate spreads will below levels in July

Pełny tekst
http://www.ecb.int/press/pressconf/2012 ... 04.en.html

[Stforex]

ECB KRANJEC: Much too early to say anything on Slovenia bailout
ECB KRANJEC: Spreads now for Slovenia don't reflect fundamentals

Moje ulubione wyrażenie często padające z ust EUoficjeli.

ECB DRAGHI: ECB cannot replace the actions of governments
ECB DRAGHI: OMT doesn't apply under full adj plan unless mkt access -- OMT is not a replacement for full market access
ECB DRAGHI: OMT not meant to get govts to shift to short-term issue -- To closely monitor issuers' strategis response to OMT
ECB DRAGHI: Cred flows normal some places; nonexistent in others -- Fragmentation unacceptable if single monpol questioned
ECB DRAGHI: Hard to say what is acceptable level of fragmentation
ECB DRAGHI: Spreads well below where they were in July -- Spain completed almost 90% of summer funding program -- Target 2 imbals have somehow stabilized; this is good -- Spain recorse to cbank financing went down in last mth

[259]

Czyli nihil novi, jedziemy zgodnie z planem
Następna zwrotka : 20:00 FOMC minutes.

[259]

Tak a'propos - ktoś wie dlaczego jest risk on mimo że w zasadzie Draghi nie powiedział nic nowego?
No może parę szczegółów ale nic istotnego - w zasadzie powtórzył tylko to co powiedział miesiąc temu.
Dla podpowiedzi: odpowiedź można znaleźć w tym artykule WSJ o którym wcześniej wspominałem:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000087 ... 83926.html