1. W wątku DT omawiamy bieżąca sytuacje na rynku i to co dotyczy danego dnia. Od dłuższych prognoz jest dział Prognozy, komentarze, analizy
2. Zamieszczamy tylko i wyłącznie swoje analizy. Nie kopiujemy z innych serwisów.
3. Komentarz do własnej analizy nie może mieć charakteru rekomendacji. (to nie jest dział z sygnałami)
4. Kłótnie, ataki na innych użytkowników są niedopuszczalne.
5. Nie zaśmiecamy wątku. (wypowiedzi w stylu: "dałem S", "ja kończę na dziś" itp. jak i chwalenie się swoimi statami)
Nagminne łamanie powyższych zasad będzie skutkować nałozeniem zakazu pisania do końca bieżącego tygodnia.
Recydywa będzie karana ostrzeżeniami.
Przypominam że ponadto obowiązuje Regulamin Forum
Przedstawione poglądy, oceny, opinie i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów
autorów i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji do nabycia lub zbycia albo
powstrzymania się od dokonania transakcji w odniesieniu do jakichkolwiek walut.
Poglądy te jak i inne treści nie stanowią "rekomendacji" lub "doradztwa"
w rozumieniu ustawy z dnia 29 lipca 2005 o obrocie instrumentami finansowymi.
Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte lub zaniechane
na podstawie poniższych analiz ponosi inwestor.
od 3:00 do 16:00 publikacje wskaźników PMI, do tego początek miesiąca i IV kwartału, dziś może być bardzo istotny dzień jeśli chodzi o kierunek eurusd w najbliższym czasie, optymizm może wynikać z prezentacji budżetów krajów południa, skłonnościach do uruchomienia QE3, ze spadku ceny ropy utrzymującego się już jakiś czas oraz korzystnej ceny jena i dolara australijskiego dla tamtejszych gospodarek. Ja wstępnie gram na wzrosty w październiku, chociaż sierpień i wrzesień były także wzrostowe na eurusd, no ale obecnie sytuacja wydaje się bardziej pozytywna aniżeli w tych miesiącach.
Dzisiaj Ben Bernanke o 18:30 przemawia.
Azjaci zdominowali losy trendu spadkowego i to oni ustalili dołek 2800.
Szkoda, iż tak późno w Niedzielkę.
Chłopaki wyskoczyły do góry i widać, iż to już koniec spadków.
Przedstawione, poglądy, oceny i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów autora i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji. Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte i z wykorzystaniem wniosków w nich zawartych, ponosi inwestor. subsilver2趋势线
EUROPE: A week heavy with risk event gets underway Monday, with markets
awaiting a possible ratings announcement on Spain from agency Moody's.
In June, Moody's said they would announce on Spain "within three months"
setting a deadline of end-September. With the outcome of the stress test
results being one of the main "wait and sees" needed to be seen by
Moody's. The agency currently rates Spain Baa3, one notch above junk,
and on review for possible downgrade Ahead of that, French September car
registration numbers are released at 0700GMT. Eurozone September
manufacturing final PMIs are released today. The main releases include
Spain at 0713GMT, Italy at 0743GMT, France at 0748GMT and Germany at
0753GMT. Final combined eurozone manufacturing PMI is released at
0758GMT. At 0800GMT, German August machine orders data is released.
Further eurozone data is expected at 0900GMT, with the release of the
EMU August unemployment data. At 1630GMT, ECB Executive Board member
Joerg Asmussen and ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny to speak
at conference hosted by Austrian National Bank, in Vienna.
SPAIN: With the Spanish bank stress test results reelased, it is likely
that Moody's will announce their latest ratings decision from the
Kingdom on Monday. I June, Moody's said they would announce on
Spain "within three months" setting a deadline of end-September. With
the outcome of the stress test results being one of the main "wait and
sees" needed to be seen by Moody's. Th agency currently rates Spain
Baa3, one notch above junk, and on review for possible downgrade.
GREECE: Greek intelligence agents has rejected the reports that Greece
faced a coup in the autumn of 2011, eKathimerini says, following media
reports that circled Friday.
UK: September manufacturing PMI data at 0828GMT, with the release of
the Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI. Also at 0828GMT, UK bank lending
and lending trends data from the Bank of England will be released.
UK PRESS: The latest Lloyds Bank Index of UK corporate sentiment shows
confidence at a 15-month high, the Independent reports. According to the
index, 51% of companies now expect trading conditions to improve, up
from 47% in August.
UK PRESS: BOE MPC official Paul Fisher is being "groomed" to replace
Paul Tucker as Deputy Governor responsible for financial stability, the
Telegraph reports. The paper say Tucker, until recently a long-time
favorite to be next BOE Governor, is likely to leave the Bank if not
promoted, leaving the way open for Fisher. Fisher is currently Director
of markets, a position formerly held by Tucker.
UK PRESS: New vacancies in the London financial markets fell 43% on year
in September, recruiters Morgan McKinley says, and down 19% on August,
the FT reports.
US PRESS: Greece's economy will contract more than projected in 2013,
its sixth year of recession, under the weight of the next round of
austerity measures demanded by international creditors, The Wall Street
Journal reports citing a draft budget the government will submit to
parliament later today. The government expects the economy to contract
at an annual rate of 3.8% next year, in line with private-sector
economists' expectations and suggesting that earlier forecasts from
Greece's international creditors were overly optimistic, the report
says.
EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY Friday at $1.2860 after rate had been pressed
down from $1.2940 to $1.2838 on end month fix flows. Slow start into
Asia with China, HK, Korea and Australia closed with early trade fairly
subdued as it held between $1.2845/50. A weak opening for Asian
equities, along with negative comments from the Slovak PM Fico
concerning Greek membership of EMU, provided early risk aversion, with
sales gaining momentum as Tokyo opened. Triggered stops through $1.2825
added to the negative weight to take rate to session lows of $1.2804,
though larger stops sub $1.2800 remained intact. Rate managed to edge
its way to a recovery high of $1.2827 ahead of the European open before
settling around $1.2820. Bids remain in place into $1.2800 (Asian
reserve manager?), a break to expose those mentioned stops, which if
triggered to open a deeper move toward $1.2780. Bids seen here with
more stops below, though if triggered expected to meet further demand
between $1.2770/50. Resistance $1.2830 ahead of $1.2850. Eurozone mfg
PMI from 0743GMT to 0758GMT ahead of EZ employment at 0900GMT.
MNI EURO-DOLLAR: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
$1.3048 Friday Sep21 high/Offers to $1.3050 $1.2990/300 Medium offers/$1.3000 Option expiry
$1.2970/80 Medium offers $1.2971 Sep25 high
$1.2940-60 NY-Europe highs Friday Sep28 $1.2920/25 Medium offers/$1.2923 76.4% $1.2960-1.2804
$1.2900 61.8% $1.2960-1.2804/Option expiry
$1.2891 Late NY recovery/Medium offers to $1.2900
$1.2860/65 Minor offers/$1.2875 Option expiry
$1.2850 Int.Day high Asia
$1.2840 ***Current mkt rate 0620GMT Monday $1.2824 Tech 200-dma/Traded below in Asia, key on close
$1.2804 Int.Day low Asia $1.2800 Strong demand on approach (Asian reserve manage?)/Stops
$1.2780-60 Decent sized stops
$1.2740 Strong demand
CABLE: Closed in NY Friday $1.6167 after getting pressed down from
$1.6217 to $1.6114 on end of month fix flows. Rate had eased off to
$1.6147 into early Asian trade, with early demand lifting rate to
$1.6161 before turning lower on slight risk aversion caused by a
negative opening in Asian equities. The move lower was led by
euro-dollar, though as cable trailed the move allowed euro-sterling to
ease from stg0.7962 to stg0.7942 before settling around stg0.7950. Cable
found initial support at $1.6118 before getting a shove below the NY
base to $1.6109, as market probed for stops. Buys emerged into the dip
to allow rate to settle back around $1.6130. Friday's much anticipated
end month ECB fix saw decent sized two way flows which left the cross
basically unmoved. However, traders suggest we could see some residual
cross demand roll over into October trade. UK mfg PMI data is due for
release at 0828GMT, with money supply following close behind at 0830GMT.
A lot of Asian centres closed today could make for a subdued session,
only US mfg ISM providing the major interest this afternoon at 1400GMT.
YEN: End month dollar demand Friday saw dollar-yen extend its recovery
to Y78.11, before closing the month/half year at Y77.96. Rate touched an
early high of Y78.10 before steadilly sliding lower in an otherwise
subdued Asian session (China, HK, Korea and Australia closed), the rate
touching an overnight low at Y77.865 and holding heavy into early
Europe. Offers Y78.10/20 with stops above, with further offers seen into
Y78.35 with more stops above. Demand seen at Y77.85/80, so far keeping
the rate buoyed. Euro-yen eased back below Y100.00 in early Asia before
settling between Y99.80/95 through into Europe.
JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japan's benchmark stock indices ended Monday's
session lower. The Nikkei 225 was lower by 73.65 points, or 0.83%, at
8796.51. Just ahead of the close, the broader-based TOPIX was lower by
5.61 points at 731.81. Preliminary volume in the Nikkei stocks totalled
791.9 bn shares, with 36 issues higher, 171 lower and 16 unchanged.
GOLD: Spot gold prices are trading lower Monday extending their declines
from the previous session. Spot gold ended Friday's session $5.15 lower
at $1772.10/oz and ended up posting a gain of just under 11% for the
quarter. Prices have edged back lower this morning after the release of
some weaker than expected Chinese manufacturing data and a negative
Japanese Tankan business sentiment survey, which has sent Japanese
shares on the back foot. Price action in the precious metal has been
seen on a subdued level this morning with key regions China and Hong
Kong closed for public holidays, with China remaining closed for the
remainder of the week. Spot gold prices initially steadily declined from
highs of $1771.20 to trade down to a session low of $1763.50 before some
moderate support saw prices edge back higher, with the precious metal
currently trading $1765.80 a troy ounce, down $6.30 on the session.
OIL: November Nymex WTI prices are trading lower Monday after holding on
to some marginal gains during the previous session. November WTI ended
Friday's session 34 cents higher at $92.19 a barrel after ending the
quarter up 8.5%. WTI prices have weakened this morning after the release
of some weak Chinese manufacturing data and a negative Japanese Tankan
business sentiment survey. The weaker than expected data, released over
the weekend, showed China's September manufacturing PMI showed an
improvement from the last month at 49.8, but is still under the 50 mark
and failed to beat the consensus of 51.2. WTI prices have steadily
declined this morning from highs of $92.18 to hold at a session low of
$91.26, with the market currently seen trading $91.51 a barrel, down 68
cents on the session.
NATURAL GAS: Nymex November natural gas prices are trading higher Monday
after prices posted their fourth consecutive day of gains on Friday.
November natural gas prices ended Friday's session 2.3 cents higher at
$3.32 per million British thermal units (Btu) after climbing late to a
2012 high of $3.33. Cooling weather forecasts for next month continue to
underpin prices, with natural gas advancing late through Friday's
session after some early pressure from profit taking. Natural gas
futures continued to move higher through the release of data from the US
Energy Information Administration (EIA) that showed gas output rose in
July in the lower 48 states. November natural gas prices have extended
their gains from Friday's settlement of $3.32, picking up from an
intra-day low of $3.325 to session highs of $3.390, with the market
currently remaining firm at $3.384 per mln Btu.
CFTC: Speculative accounts again trimmed their net euro short
positions, but added to their net yen long positions this week,
according to U.S. CFTC data, released Friday. The CFTC's COT report --
non-commercial, futures-only section, excluding options -- showed
speculators had a net euro short of -50,238 contracts as of September 25
vs the net short of -73,482 contracts seen last week.This is the
smallest net euro short position since Sept 6, 2011, when the euro
posted a high of $1.4275 and closed at $1.3998. This week's net short
contrasts to the record net euro long of +119,538 contracts seen May 15,
2007 and the record net euro short of -214,418 contracts, seen June 5,
2012. Spec accounts had a net yen long of +21,111 contracts as per Sept
25 vs last week's net yen long of +15,476 contracts. The euro closed
near $1.2898 and dollar-yen at Y77.79 Sept 25 which compared to closing
levels Friday at $1.2850 and Y78.05.
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: Eurozone Sovereign T-bill issuance for this week
are planned from Netherlands, France, Belgium, and EFSF. Supply is
estimated to be around E14.0bln, lower than E20.9bln issued last week.
Netherlands will be first to come to the market on Monday tapping a
3-month DTC maturing Dec 27 for between E1.0bln and E2.0bln, and tap a
9-month DTC maturing Jun 28, 2013, for between E1.0bln and E2.0bln. In
the afternoon, France issue E3.6-E4.0bln new 3-month BTF maturing Jan 3,
2013, re-open E1.3-E1.7bln of a 6-month BTF maturing Mar 21, 2013 and
tap E0.9-E1.3bln of a 12-month BTF maturing Sep 19, 2013. On Tuesday
Belgium tap a 3-month T-bill maturing Jan 17, 2013 and tap a 6-month
T-bill maturing Mar 14, 2013, for a indicative amount of E2.8-E3.2bln.
The EFSF will round us off with selling up to E2.0bln new 3-month Bill
maturing Jan 10, 2013. In terms of T-bill redemptions for this week, we
only have France E7.298bln, and, EFSF E1.913bln, giving potential net
cash flow negative to the tune of E4.8bln.
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: Sovereign bond issuance this week is scheduled
from Austria, France and Spain -- estimated to be E12.0bln vs E20.2bln
last week. Austria kicks off supply on Tuesday with taps of a 7-year
benchmark bond 1.95% Jun 2019 and a 30-year benchmark 3.15% Jun 2044 for
a combined total of E1.32bln. Both France and Spain then come to the
market on Thursday, with Spain tapping 3-year benchmark 3.75% Oct 2015
Bono, 2-year 3.30% Oct 2016 Bono and 5-year 5.50% Jul 2017 Obligacion,
with indicative size to be announced on Monday. France will tap, 4.25%
Oct 2018 OAT, issue new 10-year benchmark 2.25% Oct 2022 OAT and tap
40-year benchmark 4.50% Apr 2041 OAT for between E7.0 and E8.0bln. In
terms of reinvestment flows, there are no redemptions and coupon
payments only amount to E0.22bln from Italy - to turn net cash flow
negative to the tune of E11.78bln vs flat last week.
DUTCH T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: The Dutch State Treasury Agency
(DSTA), re-opens E1.0-E2.0bln of a 3-month DTC maturing Dec 27, and
re-open E1.0-E2.0bln of a 9-month DTC maturing Jun 28, 2013 on Monday.
This will be the last time the Dec 27 DTC will be tapped and therefore
could see high demand. Current 3-month DTC yield is seen trading around
-0.021% and was last sold on Sep 17, were E1.45bln was allotted at an
average yield of -0.073% and covered 2.19 times. The Jun 28 DTC is a
re-opening of a old 12-month T-bill that was issued back in July 2 for
E1.03bln at average yield of 0.05% and covered 2.7 times. Despite the
Jun 28 DTC scheduled to be tapped again on Dec 10, demand is still
likely to be very strong due to its current small size and investor
appetite for safe heaven bonds. Yield is seen around -0.01%. With no
Dutch T-bill redemption next week, cash flow could be negative to the
tune of E4.0bln. Results due to be announced around 0940GMT.
FRANCE T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: France's Agence France Tresor (AFT)
issues E3.6-E4.0bln of a new 3-month BTF maturing Jan 3,2013, re-open
E1.3-E1.7bln tap of a 6-month BTF maturing Mar 21, 2013, and re-open
E0.9-E1.3bln tap of a 12-month BTF maturing Sep 19, 2013 on Monday.
Demand is likely to high once again and yields negative or just above
zero, despite initial reaction to Spain's bank stress tests being a
positive one, as investors still wait on Moody's rating action for
Spain. If the AFT allocate at the top end of the target range, then,
with a BTF redemption of E7.298bln on Oct 4, this will leave potential
net cash flow negative to the tune of E298mln. For comparison on Sep 24,
the AFT sold E3.798bln 3-month BTF at an average yield of -0.016% with
cover of 2.88 times, E1.698bln 6-month BTF at an average yield of
-0.006% with cover of 4.37 times, and E1.269bln 12-month BTF at an
average yield of 0.006% with cover of 2.86 times. Results due to be
announced around 1255GMT.
... zbieraj pips do pipa bo jak nie to z depo będzie lipa... G."niemiaszek"
ForexTig3r pisze:Dzisiaj Ben Bernanke o 18:30 przemawia.
Azjaci zdominowali losy trendu spadkowego i to oni ustalili dołek 2800.
Szkoda, iż tak późno w Niedzielkę.
Chłopaki wyskoczyły do góry i widać, iż to już koniec spadków.
(+222)
