Pogaduchy przy porannej kawie

[259]

EUROZONE: Friday's ECB's LTRO announcement, where the central bank will publish
the amount that banks say they want to pay back, will be closely eyed. Of the
ECB's two 3-year LTROs done in Dec 2011 and Feb 2012, E489 bn matures Jan 30 and
E529 bn matures Feb 28. Banks must notify the ECB on a weekly basis about the
amount to be repaid. Marc Chandler of Brown Brothers Harriman says the market
feared that early repayment might push up short-term European rates, and notes
that "the implied interest rate of the March Euribor futures contract did
increase by about 15 bp at the start of the year, but has since stabilized...

To wydarzenie raczej będzie nie-wydarzeniem. Kluczem do jego znaczenia jest jedno tylko słowo: "voluntary" czyli dobrowolnie.
Banki dobrowolnie zwrócą ECB kasę której już nie potrzebują (czytaj: nie ma już gdzie bezpiecznie upchnąć żeby zarabiała).
Nie ma więc żadnego zagrożenia dla niczego zagrożenia a ECB będzie mógł się pochwalić poprawą bilansu.
Jeżeli już miałoby to mieć jakiś wpływ to raczej pozytywny dla Euro: część awaryjnej kasy nie jest już potrzebna.

[259]

A cobyście powiedzieli na wycenę kangura na 1,24?

jak na obrazku, raczej spadek

Ale ten trójkąt Mike jest znacznie szerszy.... a ja nadal ma też taki trwający już z 18 miesięcy.
Kiedyś o nim pisałem. I nieźle na nim zarobiłem kupując spadki

[mike_05]

Zawęziłem, żeby zasięg się zmieścił. A zwróć uwagę na żółtą na moim rysunku. Jakiś a`la trend wewnętrzny się stworzył.

[niemiaszek]

US STOCKS: Hearing some hefty buying on the VIX Feb 16 calls to the tune of
85,000 in the pit at an average price of .525. Some unconfirmed market chatter
that buyer is long some "meaty" puts and now long calls. The VIX Index was last
up .55 at 13.01.


EUROZONE: More on the ECB LTRO repayments (see bullets at 1:22 pm and 11:27 am
ET) to be announced Friday. CitiFX looks for repayments to be somewhere between
E50bn and E100bn, with market expectations centered around E100bn. Banks do not
necessarily have to report to the ECB this week that they plan to repay (can do
so on a weekly basis), but the thinking is that there there is "social pressure
to show up on the list to pay it down," CitiFX strategist Greg Anderson says.
What banks do will be important for fixed income and FX, because basically they
are "walking away from a positive carry trade," and would only do so if they
believed that a sea-change was at hand, Anderson says. LTRO repayments of less
than E100bn "could dampen the latest pickup in the eurozone short-term rates and
add conviction to the view that the ECB balance sheet would shrink only
gradually over time," CitiFX's Valentin Marinov says. Conversely, larger LTRO
repayment would suggest higher eurozone short-term yields, which would likely
"support EUR, especially against low yielding currencies like USD, JPY and to a
degree GBP," Marinov says.

[mike_05]

http://www.myfxbook.com/community/outlook

zwróćcie uwagę na usdcad

[niemiaszek]

US STOCKS: Sources saying that equities rolled over on some chatter on a
Financial Transaction tax. Our reporter on the Hill says the House Ways and
Means Committee will hold a briefing at 3pm ET on a discussion draft for tax
reform that pertains to financial products. Also, some citing a WSJ post as
well. See link:
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2013/01/2 ... ancial-pro
ducts/

[niemiaszek]

EUROZONE: While the notion of the US enacting a transaction tax on instruments
seems unlikely , the EU has pressed forward with such a
tax. Tuesday, EU finance ministers gave the go-ahead for 11 of the bloc's
members to work together on a common financial transactions tax. Germany,
France, Belgium, Spain, Italy, Austria, Greece, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia and
Estonia will now work together with the EC on plans to tax trading in shares and
bonds at an expected minimum rate of 0.1% and derivates trades at a minimum
expected rate of 0.01%. The EC, the institution which drafts common legislation
for the EU, had last year proposed such a tax for all the EU's 27 members, but
the plan was squashed by the UK, Sweden, Poland and others which said the
proposal could be damaging if other global financial center avoided such taxes.
The 11 countries moving forward with the tax see the policy as a way to raise
revenue from the financial sector while at the same time curbing practices such
as high-frequency trading.

[259]

Hej! Soros który od samego początku wieścił koniec Euro zmienił zdanie:

The Euro is here to stay
Draghi has saved the euro

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2013/01/2 ... y-remains/
http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2013/01/2 ... -the-euro/

No proszę - uberEuroNiedźwiedź mówi coś takiego...

[niemiaszek]

"...piszę Ci w liście że w EU jest zajebiście..."


EGBS: German government bonds are trading sharply lower Friday, following strong
German IFO numbers, and a larger than expected amount paid back on the ECB's
3-year LTRO. March Bund future opened marginally higher although volumes were
light and prices where seen capped by release of ECB's 3-year LTRO repayment
announcement later. Bunds fell from session high as German IFO numbers beat most
forecasts with Business moral hitting a seven month high. Bunds showed a mild
recovery in wake of weaker than expected first estimate of UK fourth quarter
GDP, but then fell sharply to session low in wake of ECB 3-year LTRO repayment
announcement. The ECB announced on Friday that E137.1591bln in 3-year LTRO funds
will be repaid on Wednesday out of the E489.191bln issued just over a year ago
through the ECB's first LTRO allotment. The repayment figure largely beat
analyst estimates, which had varied widely from as little as E30 billion to as
high as E100 billion. European periphery 10-year spreads are tighter with market
sources earlier reporting Spanish domestic bank brought very large size of new
Spain 10-year bond pushing yields lower by nearly 10bps. While Goldman Sachs
said Portuguese bonds continue to offer value in the near term.

[Mighty Baz]

sob 19-01-2013, 23:56
dla H4 , zloto, powiem szczerze ze wszystko zalezy od zachowania sie inwestorow w okolicy 1675-80, przydalaby sie wiedza o opcjach , dlatego na razie taka prognoza

Nawet nie wiesz Mighty jak się cieszę, że tworzysz takie prognozy dla złota Już myślałem, że wchodząc kilka dni temu w szorta jestem osamotnionym wariatem

A propos ¥ to poniżej kolejny artykuł z serii przepowiedni.
http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news ... 76622a3e5e