Pogaduchy przy porannej kawie

[259]

Dług hiszpański elegancko jedzie w dół:
http://www.forexpros.com/rates-bonds/sp ... nced-chart
Skoro stare strachy już nie straszne, ECB stoi z sikawką gotowy do gaszenia lokalnych pożarów a FED zalewa dziury kasą to jedyne co nam zostaje to codzienna nuda ekonomiczna ;-) Dolar ma się tak sobie, Euro otrząsa się po przestrzale w dół. 1.35 +- 5 centów jest mniej więcej poziomem równowagi pomiędzy USA i EU.
Są tacy co wieszczą recesję w Europie do końca 2018... trzeba trochę podgonić zyski na FX żeby uzbierać na emeryturę bo inaczej będzie grzebanie po śmietnikach ;-) Poproszę złoto $5000 i będę ustawiony

[259]

Jak wszyscy to wszyscy:

Greece Can Make Its First ESM Payment.. An Aide Says
By Pete Jackson || October 5, 2012 at 09:57 GMT

The country’s share of the ESM’s startup capital is around Eur900mln and the payment has to made by Oct 12

Tylko 900 balonów - czym chata bogata... To taka forma oszczędności - przeniesienie kasy na inne konto do czasu aż będzie potrzebna ;-)
Co ciekawsze, jak już będzie potrzebna to będą musieli za nią płacić jak za pożyczkę bo przecież "bailout" to nic innego jak pożyczka. A na koniec jeszcze zwrócić...

[259]

Trochę spekulacji:

A weak payrolls headline would likely send USDJPY lower initially on the assumption that it raises the risk of further Fed easing. However, if the unemployment rate is higher than expected too, USDJPY could soon recover, given the implications for the US Presidential election outcome. Our US economics team expects non-farm payrolls to increase only by 85k (cons. 115k) and the team is inline with consensus as far as the unemployment rate is concerned.

[259]

I jeszcze trochę spekulacji, tak dla poddierżenia razgawora ;-)

My NFP view- Not a huge deal
Written by Jamie Coleman
October 5, 2012 at 12:09 GMT

A re-run from yesterday afternoon.

Let’s suppose we have strong employment report. Will it change the state of play very much?

Nope.

The Fed will keep easing no matter what, until the unemployment rate is closer to 7% than 8%.

Politically the report will likely be more consequential. A poor report will give the Romney campaign a cudgel with which to beat the president. A good report may take some of the immediate pressure off of Obama after a disastrous debate performance last evening. But ultimately it would likely be too-little-too-late to change the narrative on jobs too much.

My guess is markets would like to see a moderately firm employment report which keeps the Fed firing on all cylinders while keeping a few flickers of hope alive for a late-year economic recovery. Ultimately that outcome would support risk appetites.

UPDATE: The NFIB small business lobby reports hiring among its members was crappy (that’s a technical term) in September.

[mike_05]

to zaczynamy?

[259]

Tak i to na dodatek tym razem może być bardzo nie*/ciekawie bo nikt tak naprawdę nie ma pojęcia jak ma zareagować:
*/niepotrzebne skreślić

An eye on shifting correlations ahead of non-farm payrolls
Written by Adam Button
October 5, 2012 at 12:21 GMT

The foreign exchange playbook is always changing.

Soft US economic data can be good or bad for the US dollar, based on interest rates and the global growth cycle. In the past few years, quantitative easing often meant selling the US dollar on weak US data but with the printing presses running at full speed that may change.

This is the first non-farm payrolls report since QE3 so it’s a chance to evaluate the shifting correlations. Some things won’t change, the Canadian dollar will still suffer most on a soft US reading (so long as Canadian employment is somewhat close to expectations).

More broadly, it’s up in the air. This week we have seen the US dollar both rally and slump on positive economic news. The takeaway, for now, is to tread carefully.

EDIT: Sejsmograf? ;-)

[259]

873K i Unemployment 7.8% zamiast 8.2% WOW!
Err +114k, 7.8% rate.
Kto wie dlaczego stopa bezrobocia nagle spadła tak nisko? ;-)
Za tym pytaniem kryją się zyski...

[daromanchester]

coś zagubili się wszyscy i nie wiedzą co z tym zrobić

[259]

kupić dołeczek ;-)

[daromanchester]

chciwość i strach - kto wygra?
takie dane a my stoimy w miejscu LOL