Pogaduchy przy porannej kawie

[_/_/Dariusz_/_/]

Ten temat był poruszany już dość dawno właśnie w odniesieniu do kłopotów Grecji i przyczyn, które do tego doprowadziły. Z wypowiedzi unijnych "oficjeli"wynika , że wszyscy rozumieją że tak byłoby najlepiej dla Euro, ale nikt nie chce się wychylać właśnie ze względu na wyborców i ingerencję w wew. fiskalne sprqawy poszczególnych państw strefy, gdzie nie byłoby już tak lekkiego wydawania pieniędzy

[259]

Zgadza się - temat nie jest nowy. Ale opakowanie... teraz jest mowa wręcz o ekspresowym tempie, zespołach które nad tym mają pracować i takie tam.
Przedtem to były najpierw nawoływania, potem takie dywagacje, że tak, że owszem, za kilka lat...
A teraz Angela najwyraźniej postanowiła zrobić ucieczkę do przodu.
I na dodatek wystawiła Hollande marchewkę: jego ukochane Euroobligacje jeżeli uda się to przepchnąć. A jemu strasznie jest potrzebna kasa bo Francja ledwo zipie, a on naobiecywał tyle tego... a na dodatek notowania mu lecą na pysk, a za chwilę lecą masowe zwolnienia w przemyśle podczas gdy on obiecywał coś zupełnie odwrotnego,

Ale nie będzie łatwo, oj nie będzie - już słyszę wściekłych Holendrów czy Irlandczyków.

I w tym sense jest nowym tematem. Choć może lepiej byłoby powiedzieć smaczkiem, czymś do mielenia przez kolejne tygodnie i miesiące. Czymś co nie jest siłą napędową dla rynku, ale jest czynnikiem mogącym wywoływać krótkotrwałe zamieszania w zależności od zwrotu akcji i… braku czegoś istotniejszego ;-)

[_/_/Dariusz_/_/]

Taka wspólna polityka fiskalna i kontrola nad wspólnym budżetem miała by sens i chyba to jest wyjście na przyszłość dla strefy Euro, ale te wszystkie programay wyrównujące poziomy zamożności poszczególnych branż i regionów unijnych to gruba przesada i nie da się wszystkich zadowolić. Kolejnym problemem są te cholerne wybory , gdzie wymieniają w zasadzie wszystkich i ciągle realizuje sie nowe programy polityczne a stare idą w odstawkę . Mimo szczerych chęci nie widzę za bardzo przyszłości w unii walutowej za dużo tu różności póki co to nie ma racji bytu w dłuższym okresie.

[daromanchester]

TOKYO, Aug 28 (Reuters) - The euro barely moved in early Tuesday Asian trade, stuck near this week's lows, while the Australian dollar hit a fresh five-week low on worries about the extent of the slowdown in China. Some analysts say the single currency's recovery since late July, triggered by comments from European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi that the bank will do whatever it takes to save the euro, could peter out soon. "The euro had been bought on hopes after the ECB comments. But unless the market sees action to back up its words soon, the rally will fizzle," said Minori Uchida, chief FX strategist at the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ. The euro traded at $1.2503 <EUR=>, off its seven-week high of $1.2590 hit last Thursday, and near Monday's low of $1.2490.

[_/_/Dariusz_/_/]

Z jednej strony piątek jak pisał 259 i "Dziura" "Nora" Jacksona w Wayoming a z drugiej decyzja w sprawie skupu obligacji prze EBC i spotkanie 6 września w sprawie uzgodnienia wspólnej polityki.

The euro fell against the dollar on Monday in thin trading after a bigger-than-expected drop in German business sentiment even as it raised hopes in some that the euro zone's largest economy will do more to revive the bloc's growth.

Sentiment toward the euro remained uncertain as markets awaited a series of key events next month, including the European Central Bank's policy meeting on September 6, followed by the German Constitutional Court's ruling on the euro zone's permanent bailout fund on September 12.

A speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke due on Friday will also be keenly watched by market players for any signs of action by the U.S. central bank to spur tepid growth.

German business sentiment dropped for a fourth straight month in August to reach its lowest since March 2010, the Munich-based Ifo think tank said, with the business climate hit by increasing worries about the future level of exports.

"The news clearly shows that Germany cannot escape unharmed if the rest of the euro zone falls into a deep recession," said Boris Schlossberg, managing director of FX Strategy at BK Asset Management in New York.

"Therefore policymakers may now temper their insistence on austerity and instead will pursue more stimulative policies in order to revive growth."

The euro hit a session high of $1.2535 on Reuters data after the Ifo survey was released, but gradually lost ground to trade at $1.2499, closer to the session low of $1.2488, and down 0.1 percent on the day.

It stayed well below a peak of $1.2589 set last Thursday, its highest since July 4. Traders cited strong offers above $1.2580 and option barriers at $1.2600. Support lies around $1.2500.

Volume was thin with London shut for a holiday.

Further gains in the euro are likely before U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks at a central bankers' gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Friday amid expectations of another round of monetary easing from the U.S. central bank to stimulate sluggish growth.

Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans said the Fed should immediately launch a fresh round of monetary stimulus and buy bonds for as long as it takes to produce a steady decline in the jobless rate.

The euro climbed 1.4 percent last week on optimism the ECB will soon start buying Spanish and Italian bonds to bring down borrowing costs in troubled euro zone economies.

Investors had been waiting for a speech by German ECB Executive Board member Joerg Asmussen who said last week a Greek exit from the euro zone was manageable but not preferable. But his comments on Monday did little to move investors one way or another, analysts said.

In remarks aimed at assuaging the angst of Germany's Bundesbank, Asmussen said the European Central Bank will tailor its new bond-buying plan to dispel any concerns that it funds governments.

He did not say when the bank would begin buying but made clear the plan would go ahead despite Bundesbank opposition.

Underscoring challenges to a quick solution to the debt crisis, Germany's Bundesbank has likened the ECB's bond-buying plan to a dangerous drug and a conservative ally of the German leader said Greece should leave the currency bloc by next year.

"There's a lot of event risk, and I think this event risk will keep the euro capped," said Mitul Kotecha, head of global foreign exchange strategy for Credit Agricole in Hong Kong. He predicted the euro "will struggle to get above $1.26 this week".

Against the yen, the euro was little changed at 98.44 yen. The dollar was up 0.1 percent at 78.74 yen.

The Australian dollar skidded to a one-month low and looked vulnerable to further losses on fresh concerns about China's economy. The Aussie is often used to express views on the world's second-largest economy.

The Aussie dollar was last down 0.3 percent at $1.0373.

[Esco]

DOLLAR: Month-end approaching and traders starting to talk about
possible month-end flows, though from what we've seen so far there's
still a range of expectations. One shop assesses month-end flows as
likely limited and somewhat muted, perhaps modest dollar sales, one
says. But an MS note in circulation estimates heavy euro sales at
month-end, potentially heaviest sales since Feb of this year.

edit:

AUSSIE-DOLLAR VIEW: BNP Paribas strategists Michael Sneyd and James
Hellawell maintain that "the recent decline in AUDUSD has not been
justified by underlying fundamentals." They open an Aussie long at
$1.0370, targeting $1.0545 on the topside, with a stop at $1.0285, a bit
below the 200-day moving average at $1.0306. BNPP's STEER model
estimates the short-term fair-value of FX rates based on relationships
between interest rates, equities and commodities. "Currently, STEER
indicates that AUDUSD is significantly undervalued," the strategists
say, adding that the sell off in AUD recently, not "justified by moves
in the crosses' underlying drivers."

[_/_/Dariusz_/_/]

Dzień dobry,


Jak się wczoraj dowiedzieliśmy Mario Draghi nie pojawi się w Norze Jacksona z powodu przepracowania W sumie niech odpoczywa, każdemu się należy. Rynki były skierowane na to wydarzenie i informacje, które tam miał podać dotyczące skupu obligacji przez ECB czy EBC (wersja polska). W związku z tym i pogloskami że QE 3 to jeszcze nie ta bajka można liczyć na umocnienie amerykańskiej waluty $, przynajmniej do 6.09 kolejnego czwartku.

[Stforex]

Dzień dobry.

FX: Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut,
* Euro-dollar; $1.2490, $1.2500, $1.2505, $1.2525, $1.2625
* Dollar-yen; Y78.15, Y79.10, Y79.15
* Euro-sterling; stg0.7900, stg0.7975
* Aussie; $1.0320, $1.0400, $1.0425, $1.0460
* Aussie-yen; Y82.50

FX MARKETS: FX markets continue to await the Jackson Hole speech, reducing action in the majors. Some speculative demand for Aussie-Nok and also sterling-Nok was seen on the back of a report that the Norges Bank had raised it's stake in Australia's BHP. However, a later correction to the report said the Norges Bank had lowered it's stake. The Aussie was capped ahead of $1.0375 amid some negative press reports, including speculation over the end of Australia's boom in an article in the FT. However, there were bids at $1.0350. Stops also tipped at $1.0345. In euro-dollar, traders noted CTA demand but traders also note US corporate offers $1.2580/90 and above. Talk of demand in the $1.2500/10 region. Dollar-yen was also rangebound, with Japanese buyers and reserve manager sellers keeping the pair within Y78.50/60 for most of the session.

Hahahahaha

[259]

Witam,

To wczorajsze, ale daje trochę światła:

1. Draghi announced neither he nor any ECB big short will be going to Jackson Hole. That's interesting because it is based on a "too busy schedule". These guys are really working against the clock to figure this implementation of the solution out and get it done as was as they can. That is the most positive possible support for the EUR.

2. It seems like, shortly after this announcement by Draghi hit the wires, Fitch said on Bloomberg TV the US "fiscal cliff" is a big problem and they may see a downgrade of the AAA credit rating because of that.

The EUR rushed up on this Fitch comment, a little bit thin market rocket like.

3. Then there was the rumours about huge options interest 1 month calls (i..e BUY EURUSD) above 1.27. Supposed to be from Goldmans, who, if you remember a week or so ago said 1.30 is more likely than 1.15 in short order.

4. It also seems as if expectations for Jackson Hole is really dampening down. That then creates an opportunity that the surprise is on the upside (for QE3 type, risk friendly news). (It also mean if there isn't a surprise the downside is limited because it is so much expected.)

[Esco]

Witam

Coraz więcej się tego typu newsów pojawia czy to tylko moje złudzenie?

S.Africa's Harmony Gold aims to be 1.7 million ounce