Pogaduchy przy porannej kawie

[_/_/Dariusz_/_/]

A ja bym Cię wtedy ozłocił za taką okazję choć muszę przyznać że w okolicach $1530 nieco nadwyrężyło by mi to margin - ciut przesadziłem ... ale dla takiej okazji to warto nawet dołożyć...

Jeszcze popatrzyłem w fusy na dobranoc i pokazał mi się na jutro wykop ponad 1.235, wiec jest szansa na realizacje szybkiego zysku ze złota. Pokazał się poziom popytu. Nie wim czy długo pociągnie, ale na razie jest na L.

@Stforex , niedługo wątek osiągnie pozim Bistro Cafe MightyBaza jeszcze 6 kartek !

[259]

W tym huku bitewnym umknęło:

Initial jobless claims 365K vs 370K exp

Chodzi o USA, dane tygodniowe. Z tygodnia na tydzień spada ilość osób które zgłaszają się pierwszy raz po zasiłek co wydaje się być poprawą... tylko jakoś do tej pory nie miało to odzwierciedlenia w miesięcznych NFP. Poza tym NFP liczone jest przez inną instytucję i zupełnie inaczej. Kiedyś był jakiś związek pomiędzy tymi raportami, teraz rozjazdy są raczej dziełem przypadku (albo sumy wad w obu metodologiach).

Żeby poprawić humory QE-maniakom:

US June factory orders -0.5% vs +0.5% exp
June durable goods orders revised lower

Ale dla ostudzenia: tak czy inaczej, jutrzejszy NFP to loteria. Nie dam za to nawet śmierdzących skarpetek. Rzuć monetą i będziesz wiedział to samo co inni zaczynając od siebie, a kończąć na samym Wielkim Benie (on też dowie się tego jutro tak jak Ty).
W ogóle dane Amerykańskie to loteria. Jak ktoś nie lubi loterii to polecam dane Niemieckie - jak w zegarku, prawdziwa Niemiecka precyzja połączona z Bismarckowską dyscypliną.
Z tym że nikt nie przejmuje się tymi danymi - właśnie dlatego że są tak przewidywalne. Inaczej mówiąc - nie da się na nich zarobić ;-)

PS: Amerykańskie, Niemieckie, Polskie... ktoś pamięta jak to się pisze? U mnie robią się z dużej litery z automatu. Ale ten automat kuleje w z naszą gramatyką bo to... Amerykański kod ;-)

[259]

Amerykanie są już tak bardzo uzależnieni od serwisów społecznościowych, że niemal 40 procent dorosłych mieszkańców USA wolałoby spędzić noc w więzieniu, przeżyć kanałowe leczenie zębów, zrezygnować z godziny snu dziennie, przeczyścić odpływy pod prysznicami w lokalnej siłowni, przeczytać „Wojnę i pokój" Lwa Tołstoja czy zrezygnować z klimatyzacji/ogrzewania, niż stracić dostęp do swojego profilu na LinkedIn, Twitterze, Facebooku, Google+ czy na YouTube.
(...)
62 procent wszystkich ankietowanych bacznie śledzi portale społecznościowe, ponieważ obawia się, że mogą przegapić istotne wpisy swoich przyjaciół, wiadomości lub informacje o ważnych wydarzeniach.
(...)
38 procent użytkowników w wieku 18–34 lata z wieloma profilami na portalach społecznościowych sprawdza nowe wiadomości tuż po przebudzeniu...

http://www.rp.pl/artykul/27,921562-Wola ... booka.html
I co na to DEA? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drug_Enfor ... nistration
Przecież to nic innego jak nowa (choć stara co do zasady) forma uzależnienia...

[Esco]

IMF: Having taken on the challenge of directly addressing how major
economies pose risks to each other and their smaller neighbors, the IMF
is saying

Europe needs "urgent" and far reaching policy changes, the
U.S. should fix its fiscal policy,
China must brace for any slowdown,
Japan should speed up its escape from deflation and the
UK shouldrebuild confidence in its financial institutions.

The International
Monetary Fund's 2012 Spillover Report described a world that is "ripe"
for spillovers, but argued that a coordinated reaction, going beyond the
bounds of standard policy, could attentuate the effects. See more on the
MNI main wire.

[259]

Shoulda, woulda... z ust prawdziwej Paryżanki. Podobne pomysły co ś.p. Anny-Marii tuż przed rewolucją (francuską) ze swoją radą dla tych co "nie mogą jeść chleba" - "niech jedzą ciastka"
Ale tamta była przynajmniej niedoinformowana co do przyczyny dla której nie mogli tego chleba jeść... co i tak nie uchroniło jej przed gilotyną.
Na szczęście te okrutne czasy minęły więc panią Krystynę w najgorszym wypadku czeka nuda bogatej emerytury i zamawianie kolejnych Chip'n''Dales'ów ;-)

PS: wiem, że jestem zgryźliwy ale to nic osobistego. Po prostu ponad 90% tego co codziennie do nas się pcha drzwiami i oknami to śmieci i nie dotyczy to tylko pismaków ale i wielu "wysoko" postawionych osób. Naprawdę ze świecą szukać takich którzy jak coś powiedzą to to jest to. Do niedawna przewodniczący ECB był taką osobą. Do niedawna, znaczy się do 3-o Sierpnia, 14:37 naszego czasu kiedy odczytał to co odczytał... równie dobrze mógł tego w ogóle nie czytać tylko powiedzieć "sorry folks, no way" - efekty byłby ten sam. Za to wielu oszczędziłoby sobie i czasu i kosztów żeby załapać się na ten "wyjątkowy 'event'" ;-)

[_/_/Dariusz_/_/]

A my rodacy jesteśmy uzależnieni od narzekania, więc ja idąc za ciosem trochę ponarzekam.

3-o

drugiego ? No chyba, że czasu Tokio.

[niemiaszek]

może się przydać, jeżeli nie śledzicie DT
jeżeli robię bałagan w wątku to pisać od razu


3 August 2012

Euro-dollar closed in NY at $1.2180, off lows of $1.21335, following a
whippy session driven by ECB Draghi's press conference which had seen
rate spike to $1.2406 on anticipation of announced euro support.
However, as had been noted in recent sessions the market had left itself
open to disappointment, Draghi comments that the ECB 'may' buy bonds was
not as strong as the market was wanting. Asia moved into a typical pre
NFP market with trade overnight contained within a tight $1.2167-86
range, with overnight positions held by Asian traders, whether short or
long, taken out by the market volatility. Outside of last's range
traders noted light offers in place between $1.2215/25 with stronger
interest seen into $1.2250, more around $1.2300. Support noted at
$1.2167 ahead of $1,2150/45 and $1.2135/25. Downside barrier interest
remains lower down at $1.2000, with talk suggesting one inside at
$1.2040. Services and composite PMI data due for release this morning
will provide the early interest but will be overshadowed by US NFP and
any comments from Eurozone officials after yesterday's press conference.

Asian sovereign demand into early Europe seen providing the early upside
pressure, with rate challenging the overnight highs of $1.2188,
extending to $1.2189 and holding firm. A Swiss name and a US investment
house noted interest buyers around the highs in recent trade.

Dollar-yen closed in NY at Y78.25, having eased off earlier Y78.53
highs. Dollar-yen slipped in early Asia as equities opened sharply
lower, macro account supply added weight and the pair printed Y78.07. US
name demand cushioned the move around the Tokyo fix and recovered to
Y78.20 where the pair continued in consolidation mode. Support seen at
Y78.00 and Y77.90 with stops through Y77.70. Traders still seem
unprepared to test the will of Japanese authroities below the Y77.80
level. Exporters seen capping moves on the topside through Y78.50/60,
ahead of Y78.80. Euro-yen closed in NY at Y95.30 off post Draghi press
conference lows Y94.92. The cross largely tracked euro-dollar in Asian
trade, opening heavy to Y95.03 around the fix before bouncing to Y95.20.
The pair extended gains to Y95.30 on Asian sovereign demand with focus
on today's US employment report. Support seen at Y95.00, ahead of
Y94.90, with offers reported at Y95.60, stronger behind at Y96.00.

Cable closed in NY at $1.5515 after rate had seen a spike high of
$1.5680 into ECB Draghi's press conference, only to drop back to $1.5490
as comments failed to live up to market expectations. Trade through Asia
was confined to a tight $1.5505/24 range, following Thursday's whippy
price action and trade settles into a typical tight pre-NFP market.
Cable's corrective pullback was cushioned by euro-sterling's drop back
to stg0.7824, from earlier highs of stg0.79125, trade in Asia contained
within stg0.7844/52. The recent release of weak GDP data in the UK
continues to put a dampener on the pound, though it could still make
back ground against the euro it will prove tougher versus the dollar. UK
services data due for release at 0828GMT and will provide the main
domestic focus on the day, though US Employment Report at 1230GMT will
overshadow. Cable demand seen at $1.5490/80, stronger interest noted at
$1.5460/50 with stops placed on a break of $1.5440. Resistance
$1.5525/35, a break here to open a move on toward $1.5560/65 and
$1.5580/85.

Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut,
* Euro-dollar; $1.2025, $1.2180, $1.2195, $1.2200, $1.2240, $1.2250,
$1.2300, $1.2325, $1.2370.
Exotic; $1.2000(OT)
* Dollar-yen; Y77.50, Y78.00, Y78.75
* Cable; $1.5580
* Dollar-Canada; C$1.0000
* Aussie; $1.0500, $1.0550

Turning to the technical picture, the euro is back under the 21 and
5-day moving averages of $1.2230/34 as the daily stochastic study turns
weaker but 10-day momentum attempts to recover the zero line. Main
nearby support is last week's $1.2042 low.

Cable saw a significant weakening in the 10-day momentum study as the
market falls below what is now initial resistance from the $1.5582
21-DMA. This turns bear's attention towards the July lows from $1.5459.

Dollar-yen holds under the base of the Ichimoku cloud of Y79.30 with
initial MA and Ichinoku resistance at Y78.73 and Y79.15. This is keeping
bear's attention on June lows of Y77.66, despite the daily studies
turning higher, seeking a base.

Euro-yen also sees the daily studies attempt a recovery as the market
slips back under the Tenkan line of Y95.74. The 21-DMA is providing a
stalling point for bulls, now at Y96.32, while there is a resistance
line at Y97.65. Bears are focused on the Y94.12 low.

In other markets, the major European bourses are initially seen trading
narrowly mixed Friday. Spreadbetters Cantor Index are calling the FTSE
up 8, the DAX down 9 and the CAC down 2.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 92 pts or 0.71% at 12878.88
and the Nasdaq Composite closed down 10 pts or 0.36% at 2909.77. US
index futures are trading modestly narrowly mixed Friday, largely
marking time ahead of the US employment report. The S&P Sep contract was
last down 0.75 points at 1361.25, with the Nasdaq Sep contract 0.5
points higher at 2619.0. Dow futures are also lower, down just a point
at 12830.

Japan's benchmark stock indices are lower across the board Friday, with
the Nikkei down 1.22% at 8547 and the TOPIX down 1.3% at 723.4.

Crude futures are higher in Asian trade, sitting just shy of the session
best levels. The front-month WTI contract was last 37 cents higher at
$87.50, having traded a range of $87.23 to $87.55.

Looking ahead, Friday morning sees the release of the European services
PMIs, including Spain at 0713GMT expected to come in at 43.9 and Italy
at 0743GMT expected to come in at 43.5.

The final services PMIs are also due from France at 0748GMT, Germany at
0753GMT and the main EMU data at 0758GMT. The preliminary numbers for
each of these were 50.2, 49.7 and 47.6.

UK Markit/CIPS Services PMI data is also due, at 0828GMT, while at
0830GMT, UK Q2 Insolvency Statistics are also due.

The PMI data for July will be accompanied by the composite PMI for the
month. The June services survey showed a sharp fall in service providers
expectations for the year ahead as the gloom over the economic outlook
mounted. These surveys, however, provide an alternative snapshot of
economic activity rather than a reliable read across, in any
straightforward way, to the official data. CIPS said its Q2 surveys
suggested the quarterly growth rate had slowed to near stagnation - but
the official data were much worse, showing a contraction of 0.7%. The
median forecast for the services PMI today is 51.5.

EMU data at 0900GMT sees retail trade for June, which is expected to
come in at -0.3% m/m and -1.9% y/y.

US data starts with the main release, being the closely-watched US labor
market data.

Non-farm payrolls are forecast to rise by 100,000 in July after
relatively modest readings in the previous three months. The
unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 8.2%. Hourly earnings
are expected to rise 0.2% while the average workweek is forecast to stat
at 34.5 hours after rising in June.

At 1400GMT, the US ISM non-manufacturing index is expected to fall
slightly to a reading of 52.0 in July after dipping sharply in June.

Late US data sees the 2015GMT release of C&I Loans.

[_/_/Dariusz_/_/]

Dla mnie jest bardzo pomocne że wrzucasz, bo znam angielski ze szkoły i sobie radzę, gorzej może być dla tych co nie znają , po prostu traktują to jako tło, a szkoda bo to dość ładna synteza przeszłych i przyszłych wydarzeń.

Z drugiej strony , dlaczego Mario mówił po angielsku ? Przeca to Italiano , najlepiej by mu było po włosku, a tak to sam teraz nie wie czy przekaz był poprawny . Może tutaj jest problem ?

Wyobraźmy sobie jakby tam stanął Adam Mickiewicz i sypnął po polsku przemówienie 13 zgłoskowcem co by się wtedy podziało z rynkiem ? Ile interpretacji

[_/_/Dariusz_/_/]

(Reuters) - Gold prices fell for a fourth straight session on Thursday as bullion investors continued to unwind bullish bets due to a lack of more aggressive actions by the European Central Bank and U.S. Federal Reserve to boost growth.

ECB President Mario Draghi said any government bond buying would not come before September - and only if governments activated the euro zone's bailout funds to join the ECB in buying bonds.

Gold fell in tandem with losses on Wall Street and U.S. crude futures, as markets across the board looking for monetary stimulus were less than impressed. Just last week, Draghi said the ECB would do whatever it takes to preserve the euro.

The bullion market was already under pressure a day after the Federal Reserve issued a policy statement that dashed investor hopes for new monetary stimulus, even though it acknowledged that the U.S. economy has lost momentum.

"It appears that central banks now need more economic data for them to come out with more aggressive actions, and that's disappointing for gold investors," said Phillip Streible, senior commodities broker at futures brokerage R.J. O'Brien.

"But the downside on all these precious metals markets are limited as there is a stimulus-put built onto prices," said Streible, referring to lingering hopes for easing if economic conditions worsen.

Spot gold fell 0.8 percent to $1,585.75 an ounce by 2:29 p.m. EDT (1829 GMT), having earlier hit a one-week low of $1,587.80.

U.S. COMEX gold futures for December delivery settled down $16.60 an ounce at $1,590.70, with trading volume around 10 percent below 30-day average, preliminary Reuters data showed.

SOUTH KOREA BUYS GOLD

South Korea said late on Tuesday that it bought 16 tonnes of gold in July, its second purchase this year. It is one of a number of countries, mostly in Asia and emerging markets, to have built reserves recently.

UBS said in a note that central-bank activity is in part filling in for the tame retail physical-buying from top bullion consumer India by inserting a price floor to gold's downside.

Physical buying from India remains weak, and farmers there are likely to have less discretionary income to buy gold after weather forecast predicted the country's monsoon rains will be deficient in 2012.

Among other precious metals, silver fell 1.1 percent to $27.09 an ounce, while platinum was down 2 percent at $1,380.24 an ounce and palladium dropped 3.4 percent to $566.75 an ounce.

[niemiaszek]

BONDS: German government bonds are trading moderately lower Friday, and
consolidating sharp gains seen in the previous session after ECB
President Mario Draghi disappointed markets, with position adjustments
seen ahead of the US payrolls data. Sep Bund futures put in a bullish
key-day reversal after ECB's Draghi failed to deliver on his pledge to
"do whatever it takes" to save the euro and instead just announced
potential measures for outright bond purchases and other non-standard
measures. In addition, Draghi acknowledged that his announcement "was
not a decision. It was a guidance. It was a determined guidance for the
committees to design the appropriate modalities for these policy
measures." He did not offer any precise timeframe for details the
Council has asked committees to work out. In reaction, Spain 10-year
yield rose 43bps to 7.12%, given the vagueness of the Draghi's pledges
and his reliance on governments' to kick-start any ECB interventions,
which leaves implementation risks. Spain 10-year yield is last at 7.32%
and approaching recent record high at 7.69%.