no to od jutra będziemy pisać bo ja już wymiękam a jeszcze dziecko mi kwęka wiec trzeba szybko spać bo pewnie o 6 pobudka.Von_Solares pisze:ja osobiscie zawsze siedzeo tych godzinach a na tym forum to jest moj 3 albo 4 postcrocopip pisze:co za forum. same nocne marki tylko siedza i piszą.
ja to akurat po hektolitrach kawy nie mogę dziś spać, ale dobrze że jutro weekend.widzialem ze ciekawie piszesz to tak sobie pomyslalem ze tez sie podziele swoimi przemysleniami.
Eur/Usd & Gbp/Yen analizy i prognozy by crocopip part 3
-
Von_Solares
- Bywalec
- Posty: 20
- Rejestracja: 02 lut 2010, 11:40
Witam,
no i na dzień dobry 35p na longu. dobrze piszą od rana więc Tp powoli staje się realny
UK: COULD AUG SERVICES SECTOR
PMI SURPRISE TO THE UPSIDE?
Following weaker than expected outturns for both UK manufacturing
and construction sector PMIs for Aug, the market
looks ahead to Friday for the Aug services sector CIPS survey,
and is expecting the headline business activity indicator
to fall, to 52.9 from 53.1 in Jul. We, on the other hand
look for an increase in the headline services PMI to 53.8.
Should our forecast materialise, it could help to arrest the
current fall in GBP, albeit temporarily.
Our forecast for an above-consensus outturn in the UK
services PMI stems from the view that following two consecutive
months of downside surprises, there is probably
scope for a bit of a recovery in Aug, given the backdrop of an
improvement in equities prices, on average, and also the
ebbing of the tensions in the financial markets that may
have played a role in undermining overall services activity
during the previous few months. With the VIX stock market
volatility indicator having fallen on average in Aug, this suggests
an increased probability of an improved services
sector PMI reading, given that our studies find a strong –
0.84 correlation between the two variables, using monthly
data since Jan 2003. Indeed initial evidence from Germany
of an acceleration in the pace of services activity in the
Eurozone’s largest economy in Aug is also an encouraging
factor for our above-consensus prediction.
(see graph next page)
Should our forecast materialise, it should be construed as
supportive for GBP, but won’t alter the fact that Q3 is likely to
show an average services sector PMI that underperforms
that seen in Q2. This would point towards a slower rate of
services sector output for this quarter compared with the
downwardly revised 0.7% q/q rate posted in Q2. Indeed remaining
in the background is the govt’s planned spending
cuts, which will likely continue to have an adverse effect on
the confidence of those services firms that are directly or
indirectly exposed to public sector spending. So, any signs
of a relief rally on GBP from a services sector figure that
exceeds the consensus expectation will probably be brief,
as such a number is not expected to mark the start of a new
upward trend as such.
no i na dzień dobry 35p na longu. dobrze piszą od rana więc Tp powoli staje się realny
UK: COULD AUG SERVICES SECTOR
PMI SURPRISE TO THE UPSIDE?
Following weaker than expected outturns for both UK manufacturing
and construction sector PMIs for Aug, the market
looks ahead to Friday for the Aug services sector CIPS survey,
and is expecting the headline business activity indicator
to fall, to 52.9 from 53.1 in Jul. We, on the other hand
look for an increase in the headline services PMI to 53.8.
Should our forecast materialise, it could help to arrest the
current fall in GBP, albeit temporarily.
Our forecast for an above-consensus outturn in the UK
services PMI stems from the view that following two consecutive
months of downside surprises, there is probably
scope for a bit of a recovery in Aug, given the backdrop of an
improvement in equities prices, on average, and also the
ebbing of the tensions in the financial markets that may
have played a role in undermining overall services activity
during the previous few months. With the VIX stock market
volatility indicator having fallen on average in Aug, this suggests
an increased probability of an improved services
sector PMI reading, given that our studies find a strong –
0.84 correlation between the two variables, using monthly
data since Jan 2003. Indeed initial evidence from Germany
of an acceleration in the pace of services activity in the
Eurozone’s largest economy in Aug is also an encouraging
factor for our above-consensus prediction.
(see graph next page)
Should our forecast materialise, it should be construed as
supportive for GBP, but won’t alter the fact that Q3 is likely to
show an average services sector PMI that underperforms
that seen in Q2. This would point towards a slower rate of
services sector output for this quarter compared with the
downwardly revised 0.7% q/q rate posted in Q2. Indeed remaining
in the background is the govt’s planned spending
cuts, which will likely continue to have an adverse effect on
the confidence of those services firms that are directly or
indirectly exposed to public sector spending. So, any signs
of a relief rally on GBP from a services sector figure that
exceeds the consensus expectation will probably be brief,
as such a number is not expected to mark the start of a new
upward trend as such.
