DayTraging: Wtorek 15.01.2013

[grafikk]

jak grasz na bardzo długi termin to spokojnie możesz pakować longa z TP w okolicach 124.44 (według wykresu tygodniowego)

pakowac bo tanio jak barszcz

[cajto]

Krab został zrealizowany w bardzo dobrym miejscu (1.34 = 361.8 odcinka BC bez kilkunastu P), patrząc na H4 dziś zanosi się na korektę. Jeśli tempo wzrostów ma zostać utrzymane powinna być płaska do 38.2 F, czyli 1.3250 - 13280.
Zobaczymy co z tego wyjdzie.

[crok.]

jen daje ladnie zarobic ale trzeba ostroznie grac bo ruchy szybko moga wyczyscic pieknie rachunek

[niemiaszek]

Hello


EUROPE: The calendar picks up pace on Tuesday, with a slew of releases on both
sides of the Atlantic. Early data sees the release of the German December final
HICP data and final German 2012 GDP numbers. At 0800GMT, further European
inflation data is expected, with the release of Spain's December final HICP
numbers. Further eurozone data is expected at 1000GMT when the EMU November
trade numbers will hit the screens.

EUROPE: In an interview with the BBC World Service on Monday, IMF head Christine
Lagarde said there are signs of recovery in the eurozone, with signs investors
are returning. Lagarde said there are the "beginnings of a recovery."

GREECE: Greece cant take the next disbursement of funs "for granted" following
Monday's Euro Group meeting in Brussels, eKathimerini reports.



UK: UK inflation data is released at 0930GMT, when both PPI nad CPI numbers are
set to cross the wires. In terms of the CPI release, it is likely inflation
finished 2012 close to 3%. The price rises by four of the six main utility
providers announced last year will show up for the first time in the December
figures with analysts expecting they will add around 0.3 percentage
points to the overall index. The good news is that the 2% fall in petrol
prices during December should shave around 0.05 percentage points off
inflation. Turning to the PPI release, December's figures should show that
pipeline price pressures remain fairly well contained. Oil prices, in sterling
terms at least, were broadly unchanged in December which should feed
through to little change in producers' input prices. Also expected at 0930GMT is
the UK Nov House Price Index from the ONS.

UK PRESS: The FT says the raft of pension changes announced by the government on
Monday will likely reap the Treasury stg 9 bln annually from 2017.

UK PRESS: More pain on the UK high street Monday, as entertainment retailer HMV
calls in the administrators, putting up to 4000 jobs at risk, the FT reports.

UK PRESS: Investor appetite for the UK currency is fraying due to uncertainty
over Britain's membership in the EU, The Times reported. The pound suffered its
sixth straight day of losses against the euro yesterday, falling to its lowest
level since April last year at E1.202. It slid to $1.606 against the dollar and
to its lowest level since June against a basket of several key currencies. Chris
Turner, chief currency strategist at ING, said in the report the declines were
being driven in part by questions over the UK's future in the single market.
Britain's moribund economic outlook is also denting investors' willingness to
snap up sterling assets, the report said.



US: US data starts at 1245GMT, with the release of the ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
for the December 12 week. At 1300GMT, Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Eric
Rosengren is slated to give a speech on the economic outlook, at a breakfast
meeting in Providence, Rhode Island. The day's main US releases are expected at
1330GMT, when December retail sales and PPI numbers will be released, along
with the January NY Fed Empire State Survey. Retail sales are forecast to rise
0.2% in December, as motor vehicle sales were up slightly in the month. The
Producer Price Index is expected to fall 0.1% in December after a 0.8% decline
in November. Core PPI is forecast to rise 0.2%. The NY Fed Empire State
Manufacturing Index is expected to rise to a reading of 0.0 in January after
falling to a reading of -8.10 in December.

US: (2) At 1350GMT, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Narayana
Kocherlakota speaks on Fed actions and the macroeconomy to the Financial
Planners Association of Minnesota. More data is scheduled for 1355GMT, with the
release of the Redbook Average for the Jan 12 week. At 1430GMT, Philadelphia
Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Plosser gives a speech on the economic
outlook Rochester, NY. The last data release for the day is expected at 1500GMT,
when November Business Inventories are released. Business inventories are
expected to rise 0.3% in November. Factory inventories were already reported as
roughly flat, while wholesale inventories rose 0.6%.




EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY Monday at $1.3382, off the rate's late recovery high
of $1.3395 after rate had seen a sell off to $1.3336 earlier in the US session
as markets adjusted positions ahead of Monday evening's Fed Bernanke speech.
Rate eased to $1.2372 in early Asian dealing before edging back to $1.3394, the
move up mainly driven by euro demand via the crosses (euro-yen, euro-Swiss and
euro-Aussie the stand out interest). However, upside momentum quickly faded
again ahead of $1.3400 with rate reversing to a low of $1.3349 in afternoon
Asian trade, led by a reversal in euro-yen as market reacted to comments from
the Japanese economy minister suggesting that excessive yen weakening could
impact on livelihoods. Rate recovered to $1.3365 before settling between
$1.3350/60 ahead of the European open. Fed Bernanke last night was seen as
signalling more of the same, though cautiously optimistic. Data calendar sees
Germany 2012 CPI and GDP at 0700/0800GMT respectively, EZ trade at 1000GMT, with
US retail sales at 1330GMT seen as the main focus.


CABLE: Closed in NY Monday at $1.6076, seen after rate had recovered off a US
session low of $1.6033 to $1.6092. Rate dipped to $1.6069 in early Asia before
rate recovered, in line with euro-dollar, the rate trading to $1.6094 before
upside momentum faded. Rate drifted lower through the main part of the overnight
session, touching an overnight low of $1.6068, edging back to $1.6084 ahead of
the European open. Cable's corrective pullback was tempered by euro-sterling
easing away from its recent posted highs at stg0.8326, touching a low of
stg0.8303 and holding heavy into early Europe. UK inflation data the main
domestic focus at 0930GMT, with median expectation for headline CPI seen at 2.7%
y/y. A release below this level would be seen opening the potential for an
increase in QE, while above would support arguments for no change. Cable offers
remain at $1.6095/00. Support $1.6068, stronger between $1.6050/45, with a break
to open a deeper move toward $1.6035/30 ahead of $1.6015/00 (rising trendline
support in focus from July and Nov 2012 in this latter area). Euro-sterling
resistance stg0.8325/30 ahead of stg0.8360/65. Support stg0.8305/00, stg0.8280.


YEN: Dollar-yen recovery off Monday NY session lows of Y89.08 extended into
Asia, after closing the NY session at Y89.54. Rate pushed on to Y89.63, as
further demand came via the Tokyo fix. However, reported comments from the
Japanese economy minister Amari warning that excessively weak yen has negative
effects on livelihoods sppoked the markets and prompted a sell off, the rate
dropping back to Y88.62. Euro-yen, which had extended its recovery off NY lows
of Y118.89 to $1.119.98 in Asia, dropped back to Y118.58, but both pairs met
willing buyers into the dip with stand out buying noted from CTA's and macros as
rates recovered to Y89.11 and Y119.18 but the recovery momentum quickly faded.
The underlying tone remains for further yen weakness though Japanese officials
have been noted voicing concern over the speed of the currency's depreciation
which could provide a corrective prompt should yen slippage pick up momentum.

JAPAN STOCKS: The Nikkei 225 Index ends up 0.72% at 10,879.08.


KIWI: The kiwi is lower vs early Sydney, but that's on the back of gains in the
morning when the currency breached the overnight high briefly on early comments
from Fed chief Bernanke and on strong local economic data. BNZ's senior
economist Craig Ebert says the real story from the latest QSBO released this
morning is that it implies solid economic expansion in Q4 and strong advances in
early part of 2013, which if sustained in the next report shows "we'll be
staring at an accelerated economy." If this is true, then the RBNZ will soon be
having second thoughts about keeping the cash rate so very low (OCR has been at
record low since March last year), says Ebert. Kiwi is now at $0.8417.


GOLD: Spot gold prices are trading modestly higher Tuesday extending
their marginal gains from the previous day. Spot gold ended Monday's
session up $5.05 at $1667.85/oz as price action continued to remain
range bound for much of the day. Spot gold prices have edged their way
higher this morning, after US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said
late Monday that he was still unsatisfied with US economic progress,
possibly indicating a continuation of the current bond-buying program
that has been supporting gold prices over the previous months. Spot gold
prices have moved marginally higher this morning, but continue to lack
any conviction to the upside. Prices have moderately advanced from
initial lows of $1666.75/oz to highs of $1675.54/oz a few moments ago.
Light bids are seen at $1664 with more support anticipated around
$1656/oz. Sell interest remains above at $1692/oz with some offers also
noted at $1681/82. Spot gold now trades at $1673/oz, up $5.15 on the
session.


OIL: March NYMEX WTI prices are trading in negative territory Wednesday
giving back some of the gains posted during Monday's session. The
February contract, which expires on Wednesday, ended the session up 58
cents at $94.14 a barrel, whilst March closed 60 cents higher at $94.59
a barrel. WTI prices have edged their way lower during Asian traded
hours this morning in tandem with a moderate move lower in FX pair
euro-dollar. WTI market participants are also looking ahead to supply
data, due from the API and EIA later this week, with an expected
increase in oil inventory also weighing on WTI prices. Weekly data due
this week from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the US Energy
Information Administration (EIA) are expected to show an increase of 2.5
million barrels in US commercial crude oil stocks for the week ended
January 11, Platts says citing its survey of analysts. March WTI prices
have edged their way lower this morning from initial intra-day highs of
$94.71 to lows of $94.16 and now trade at $94.24 a barrel, down 35 cents
on the session.


NATURAL GAS: NYMEX February natural gas prices are trading marginally
lower Tuesday, with the market in consolidation mode after posting some
gains for a third consecutive session the previous day. February natural
gas futures ended Monday's session up 4.6 cents, or 1.4%, at $3.373 per
million British thermal units (mln Btu) after trading in a $3.337 to
$3.411 range. Prices were underpinned by colder weather forecasts for
this week and next week that should generate more heating demand.
Weather forecasters said the US East Coast and Midwest should see a cold
snap of weather over the next six to ten days. Natural gas prices have
also advanced higher after last week's inventory report, that showed a
large drop in US stockpiles. February natural gas prices have edged
marginally lower so far this morning, after initial intra-day highs of
$3.396 per mln Btu. February natural gas futures are now trading on
session lows of $3.362 per mln Btu, modestly down from last night's
close of $3.373 per mln Btu.


OPTIONS: FX: Option expiries for today's 1000ET cut,
* Euro-dollar; $1.3300, $1.3325, $1.3350, $1.3400
* Dollar-yen; Y88.30, Y88.50, Y88.75, Y89.00, Y89.25, Y89.50, Y90.00
* Aussie; $1.0550, $1.0600


EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: Spain, Greece and Belgium all come to the Eurozone
sovereign T-bill market Tuesday. Spain will be first up issuing a new 12-month
Jan 24, 2014 Letra and tap of a 18-month Jun 20, 2014 Letra for an indicative
amount of E4.5-E5.5bln. Greece will sell E1.25bln 13-week Apr 19 T-bill. While
Belgium will tap a 3-month Apr 18, 2013 T-bill and issue new 12-month Jan 16,
2014 T-bill for an indicative target range of E3.0-E3.5bln. To recap, on Monday
afternoon, France sold E3.598 3-month BTF at average yield -0.002%, E1.402bln
6-month BTF at average yield 0.017% and E2.0bln 12-month BTF at average yield
0.057%. Still to come, on Wednesday Portugal will re-open a 3-month Apr 19
T-bill, and issue new 12-mont Jan 17, 2014 T-bill and 18-month Jul 18, 2014
T-bill for indicative amount of E2.25-E2.5bln. Finally on Thursday Ireland plan
to issue new 3-month T-bill, with confirmation, maturity and size to be
announced on Tuesday.


RATINGS: The rating table at 0700GMT/0200ET comes after Standard & Poor's
Ratings revised Finland's outlook to stable from negative and affirmed 'AAA'
sovereign credit ratings, late Monday. S&P also affirmed the Netherlands 'AAA'
rating, outlook negative. In addition, S&P also revised Luxembourg 'AAA' rating
outlook to stable from negative.

[Tommy_Boss]

EJek to tak z korektą do 115,86 mi się marzy

Jak myślicie ???

[Adam]

EJek to tak z korektą do 115,86 mi się marzy

Jak myślicie ???

Bardzo optymistycznie, U mnie pierwsze TP na 38,2% fibo drugie 50% ostatnich wzrostów.Jak będzie zobaczymy

[cajto]

Adam - od jakich wartości oczekujesz korekty 100-120 z W1, czy niższe interwały / poziomy (113.5-120)?

Na Edku dane z Niemiec pokrzyżowały szyki miśkom.

[crok.]

ja to uwazam , ze teraz szwajcarzy wykorzystaja zamieszanie z jenem do oslabienia swojej waluty ...

[MaciejWLKP]

Myślę że warto dziś obserwować pary z jenem, możliwe popołudniowe umocnienie dolara może dać fajnie zarobić na jen/pln. Target 3.4220. Ponad 350 pips

[niemiaszek]

EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- Jan 15 Cypriot President Christofias speaks at European Parliament
- Jan 15 Bank of Portugal publishes Winter Economic Bulletin
- Jan 15 Merkel and DGB union leader Sommer hold joint press conference
- Jan 16 Portugal sells 3-/12-/18-month T-bills for up to E2.5bln
- Jan 16 Ireland PM Kenny, EU Barroso speaks in European Parliament
- Jan 15 Spain sells 12-/18-month T-bills for up to E5.5bln
- Jan 17 Spain sells 2015-/2018-/2041 bonds for up to E4.5bln
- Jan 17 Ireland sells T-bills
- Jan 17 Roesler delivers govt declaration in parliament on growth outlook
- Jan 17 ECB publishes Jan Monthly Bulletin
- Jan 16 ECB start of reserve maintenance period
- Jan 18 Spain T-bill redemption for E5.395bln
- Jan 18 Italy former PM Berlusconi speaks on Canale 5 tv
- Jan 18 Portugal T-bill redemption for E1.266bln
- Jan 18 Greek T-bill redemption for E2.0bln


SPAIN T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: Spain's Tesoro Publico will issue new 12-month Jan
24, 2014 Letra and re-open 18-month Jun 20, 2014 Letra for an indicative amount
of E4.5-E5.5bln Tuesday. In the Spanish Treasury announcement on funding for
2013 it said that from February it was eliminating the auction of 18-month
Letras and will be issuing 9-month Letras instead. The Treasury also said that
it would be issuing a new 12-month Letra each month, which would be re-opened
every 3-months. Therefore Tuesday will see the very last 18-month Letra auction,
while the 12-month Letra will only be re-opened again in April. Market is
expecting strong demand despite the high indicative size and the sharp falls in
yield see since the beginning of the year. Grey market is indicating a mid-yield
of 1.375% for the 12-month, while mid-yield on the 18-month is 1.685%. For
comparison, at the last 12-/18-month auction back on Dec 1, the Tesoro sold
E2.385bln 12-month T-bills at average yield of 2.556% with cover 2.46 times, and
E1.505bln 18-month T-bills at average yield of 2.778% with cover 2.70 times.
Results due to be announced around 0940GMT.


GREECE T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: Greece's Public Debt Management Agency (PDMA) is
planning to issue E1.25bln new 13-week Apr 19, 2013 T-bill Tuesday. Greece put
into place new tax reform measures and hiked electricity prices Monday, meeting
2 milestones Eurozone finance ministers in December said Greece had to meet in
order to secure the next tranche of aid. "It is now up to the board of directors
of the EFSF to approve the next disbursement," a spokesman for the EU Commission
said in a statement. Greece is set to receive a further E14.8bln spread over the
first quarter, after receiving E34.3bln in Dec. The PDMA will once again
allocate an extra 30% of amount auctioned, in non-comp bids and a further 30% in
second day bids, to bring total amount to be issued to E2.0bln. At the last
13-week T-bill on Dec 18, the PDMA sold E1.3bln at average yield of 4.11% and
covered 1.73 times. There will be a E2.0bln T-bill redemptions on Jan 18, which
is seen underpinning demand at the auction. Results due to be announced around
1015GMT.