1. W wątku DT omawiamy bieżąca sytuacje na rynku i to co dotyczy danego dnia. Od dłuższych prognoz jest dział Prognozy, komentarze, analizy
2. Zamieszczamy tylko i wyłącznie swoje analizy. Nie kopiujemy z innych serwisów.
3. Komentarz do własnej analizy nie może mieć charakteru rekomendacji. (to nie jest dział z sygnałami)
4. Kłótnie, ataki na innych użytkowników są niedopuszczalne.
5. Nie zaśmiecamy wątku. (wypowiedzi w stylu: "dałem S", "ja kończę na dziś" itp. jak i chwalenie się swoimi statami)
Nagminne łamanie powyższych zasad będzie skutkować nałozeniem zakazu pisania do końca bieżącego tygodnia.
Recydywa będzie karana ostrzeżeniami.
Przypominam że ponadto obowiązuje Regulamin Forum
Przedstawione poglądy, oceny, opinie i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów
autorów i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji do nabycia lub zbycia albo
powstrzymania się od dokonania transakcji w odniesieniu do jakichkolwiek walut.
Poglądy te jak i inne treści nie stanowią "rekomendacji" lub "doradztwa"
w rozumieniu ustawy z dnia 29 lipca 2005 o obrocie instrumentami finansowymi.
Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte lub zaniechane
na podstawie poniższych analiz ponosi inwestor.
Co do cięć stóp w Australii. Ciekawy tekst : może być zabawnie - patrząc na umacnianie się AUD w październiku i dobre dane stamtąd płynące...
"1. The Bloomberg survey says 20 of 27 economists expect the RBA cut today
2. Just 9 of 26 economists correctly called the rate cut last month
3. Of the 9 who were correct last month, 7 expect the RBA to cut today
4. Westpac was correct last month and is ranked as the top RBA forecaster. Westpac economists and the bank’s CEO are calling for a cut today.
5. The OIS market is 51% priced for a cut after hitting as high as 80% before the CPI numbers
6. Interbank futures price a 60% chance of a hold
7. All market-based metrics, show that a cut is virtually certain by year-end
8. Herald Sun columnist McCrann says the RBA will hold but he has a nearly unblemished record of being wrong this year
9. David Uren at The Australian (who is much better than McCrann) says there is a less than 50% chance of a cut
10. The RBA has adjusted interest rates in Nov in every year since Stevens took over in 2006
This is one of the toughest calls in a long time — even tougher than the US election. My best guess is that they hold and AUD/USD rallies above 1.04."
Adam Button
A co do wybrów w USA, którymi jutro wszyscy będą "żyli" : uważam że Obama nie odda stołka.
Niema cięcia stóp na Aussie, L-ki na EUR/AUD dostały headga, muszę się nauczyć grać na silnie trendujących rynkach, eur/aud zapierdziela jak głupi w jednym kierunku bez większych korekt.
S-ka na AUD/USD 1.0432 szybki skalp tego wybicia.
ciekawe gdzie teraz Aussie 1.0522 czy mimo wszystko spadki
Ostatnio zmieniony 06 lis 2012, 04:58 przez Peter_FX, łącznie zmieniany 1 raz.
EUROPE: Tuesday is election day in the US, with polls opening from 11GMT
(bar the two early New Hampshire votes. National polls are by and large
tied, although President Obama is seen with a narrow advantage in the
key battleground states. On the data front, Tuesday gives us a fresh
snap shot of the state of the eurozone economy, with the release of the
national and EMU October service PMI. Spanish PMI is released at
0813GMT, Italy at 0843GMT, France at 0848GMT and Germany at 0853GMT. EMU
data is release at 0858GMT. Flash data was mixed, but showed further
weakening at the core. Further European data is expected at 1000GMT,
with the release of EMU September PPI and then at 1100GMT when German
September manufacturing orders numbers are out.
EUROPE: The WSJ says the ECB and European governments are divided over
who should shoulder the monetary burden of giving Greece the additional
time to put its financial house in order.
EU: Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said Greece's creditors
were "on track" to decide soon on more aid for Athens, but that more work still
needed to be done. "We are on track to take a decision on the 12th of November
but it will require some more work by everybody," Rehn told a press conference
after the conclusion of the G20 meeting.
SLOVENIA: Wires report ratings agency S&P have placed Slovenia on
"credit watch negative" (Bberg)
UK data starts at 0900GMT, with the release of the Oct New car and
commercial vehicle registrations from the SMMT. At 0930GMT, the
September Industrial Production and Manufacturing Output numbers will
hit screens.The report could well show a small rebound in manufacturing output after
the falls seen in August. The ONS said that a large number of
manufacturers closed for the summer holidays in August, so a proportion
of the 1.1% fall seen in output may well have been temporary and there
could well be a sharp rebound as some factories reopened. That said, the
manufacturing PMI reading for the month was weak - and it is very much
continuing that way - while the Confederation of British Industry's
Industrial Trends survey also reported a negative orders balance.
EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY at $1.2796 after recovering from an intraday
low of $1.2767, but below its 200-dma at $1.2830 (today coming in at
$1.2828 and offering key resistance). The rate's recovery extended to
$1.2803 in early Asian trade before sellers emerged to press rate down
to lows of $1.2782. Recovery was aided as the Australian dollar was
boosted on the back of RBA's no rate change, when a wide range of
forecasters were calling for a 25bp cut. Euro-dollar pushed back toward
$1.2800 but failed to break above, settling between $1.2784/94 ahead of
the European open. Today's US election will provide background colour,
though results not due until early Wednesday. Eurozone services and
composite PMI's due for release this morning from 0813GMT (to the
Eurozone release at 0858GMT) ahead of EMU PPI at 1000GMT and German
factory orders at 1100GMT. While euro-dollar holds below its broken
200-dma level it will be seen adding to the current underlying
negativity, though recent dollar demand on positioning for a Republican
Romney win could unwind if Pres.Obama gains a second term.
MNI EURO-DOLLAR: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
$1.2980/85 Medium offers
$1.2940/50 Medium offers
$1.2890/900 Medium offers
$1.2850 Offers on approach
$1.2842 Monday Nov5 high
$1.2828 Tech 200-dma (closed below Monday-$1.2830)
$1.2803 Int.Day high Asia
$1.2799 ***Current mkt rate 0651GMT Tuesday
$1.2781 Int.Day low Asia
$1.2767 Monday Nov5 low
$1.2760/50 Medium demand
$1.2739 Tech 38.2% $1.2043-1.3169
$1.2710/00 Medium demand
CABLE: Closed in NY at $1.5979 after rate had recovered off intraday
lows of $1.5957, seen after the pound came under pressure following
release of softer than forecast services PMI data. Rate extended the
recovery into early Asia, in tandem with euro-dollar's early climb, the
rate edging to an initial high of $1.5985. Rate eased to $1.5971, again
taking its lead from euro-dollar, as well as reacting to the release of
disappointing BRC retail sales data. Recovery off lows was given an
added boost as risk in general was lifted by the Australian dollar
spiking higher on the back of the RBA leaving rates unchanged (wide
expectation for a cut of 25bp). Cable rallied to a high of $1.5992 and
was holding firm into early Europe. Euro-sterling was held within a
tight stg0.7996-0.8001 range through Asia. Domestic UK data has
IP/manufacturing numbers released at 0930GMT, though today's US election
will provide the main background interest. Cable support seen at
$1.5960/50, resistance $1.6000 ($1.5999 50% $1.6040-1.5957), a break to
allow for a move to $1.6020 (76.4%) ahead of $1.6040/50.
AUSSIE: CitiFX Wire report that turnover since the RBA decision to leave
rates unchanged (surprising markets that had widely forecast a cut of
25bp) has been very large, adding that on their platform the bias is
showing buyers over sellers at 55.4%. Leveraged names have been the lead
buyers, with banks also having showed decent demand interest. However,
real money appears to be using this react rally to sell back into the
move, with Japanese accounts noted sellers of Aussie-yen. Aussie-dollar
currently trades around $1.0421.
Dollar-yen falls back from the bearish inside-day/harami candle
pattern with an almost shooting-star candle on Friday. Daily tech
studies are firmly bearish and we see the pair moving back towards the
200-DMA, support at Y79.60. Ahead of that, initial support seen around
the session low, the Tenkan line lies at Y79.92 and the August high
forms support at Y79.66.
Euro-yen continues to slide, it found support yesterday from the
former Sep 17 falling resistance line, but has broken this support level
today. Initial support now seen at Y102.10/14, the rising channel lower
and the 200-DMA. Further support seen as the 55-DMA at Y101.26. The pair
has been bearish since the Oct 23 ngulfing pattern and bears may try and
break below the rising channel to the Ichimoku cloud.
GOLD: Spot gold prices are trading marginally higher Tuesday after
moderately regaining some ground during the previous session. Spot gold
ended Monday's session $6.90 higher at $1685/oz as prices tentatively
edged their way back after Friday's steep declines, which saw gold fall
to $1673.94/oz. Gold prices briefly breached Friday's low during
Monday's session but prices managed to reverse back higher from lows of
$1672.24/oz. The majority of gold clients remain absent from the market
ahead of uncertainty surrounding the results of the US presidential
election. Spot gold prices have been pinned in a narrow trading range so
far this morning, edging their way back from an intra-day low of
$1683.75 to a session high of $1687.20/oz. Metals brokers report hardly
any activity so far this morning, with some bids working below the
market around $1661/62 via some short covering accounts. Short-term
resistance is anticipated around $1693 and $1700. Spot gold now trades
at $1686.70 a troy ounce, up $1.70 on the session.
GOLD: Andreas Dombret, a member of the Bundesbank's Executive Board called a
demand by German politicians and the country's federal Court of Auditors to
audit Germany's gold reserves now being held in the US, "a discussion driven by
irrational fears," mining investment site Mineweb.com reports. "I wish to warn
against voluntarily adding fuel to the general sense of uncertainty among the
German public in times like these by conducting a 'phantom debate' on the safety
of our gold reserves," Dombret was cited saying. Germany is believed to have the
second-largest gold reserves in the world, after the US. There have been calls
in Germany for the Bundesbank to audit Germany's gold reserves, the majority of
which are stored in offshore banks.
OIL: December NYMEX WTI prices are trading around unchanged levels
Tuesday after posting some gains during the previous session. December
WTI futures ended Monday's session 79 cents higher at $85.65 a barrel as
prices tentatively recovered from Friday's sharp sell-off, although
volumes remain on the thin side ahead of the US election results. In
terms of supply, weekly oil inventory data to be released this week by
the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the US Energy Information
Administration (EIA) are expected to show an increase of one million
barrels in US commercial crude oil stocks for the week ended Nov 2,
Platts says citing its survey of analysts. API data is due later today
whilst the weekly EIA statistics are scheduled for Wednesday. Due to the
impact of superstorm Sandy on the US Atlantic Coast, US petroleum
products stocks are expected to show declines for the reporting week,
according to the Platts survey. December WTI prices have been tied to a
narrow range so far this morning, edging lower from a high of $85.84 to
hold at an intra-day low of $85.50 and now trades at $85.67, up 2 cents.
NATURAL GAS: NYMEX December natural gas futures are trading marginally
lower Tuesday after ending the previous session flat on the day.
December natural gas futures ended Monday's session unchanged at $3.554
per million British thermal units (Btu) after trading in a range between
$3.506 and $3.588. Cold weather in the Northeast and Midwest, two key
gas consuming regions, cancelled out ongoing concerns about record-high
supplies for much of the session, with no fresh catalyst seen to drive
prices significantly in either direction. In terms of supply, injection
estimates for Thursday's EIA storage report range from 15bln to 40bln
cubic feet (c/f), although the report number will be difficult to call
due to superstorm Sandy knocking out power last week to nearly 8.5mln
customers, cutting demand for gas used to generate electricity by up to
1bln c/f per day. As of yesterday, power outages had been cut to around
1.3mln. December natural gas prices have moderately retreated so far
this morning from a session high of $3.569 to a low of $3.538 and now
trade at $3.540 per mln Btu.
EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- Nov 6 European final services PMI data
- Nov 6 Greece sells 26-week T-bill for E1.0bln
- Nov 6 EFSF sells new 3-month Bills for E2.0bln
- Nov 6/7 Greek unions call 48-hour strike to protest austerity
- Nov 7 ECB Draghi speaks on eurozone economy in Frankfurt
- Nov 7 EU issues Autumn Economic forecasts
- Nov 7 European Commission bi-annual economic forecasts
- Nov 7 German Merkel speaks to European Parliament 1515GMT
- Nov 8 ECB meeting, Draghi's first anniversary as ECB President
- Nov 8 Spain sells 2015-/2018 Bono-/2032 Oblig bonds for up to E4.5bn
- Nov 8 German Merkel speaks at German builders association
- Nov 8 Greek Aug unemployment data
- Nov 8/9 AFME European govt bond conference - EU debt chiefs speak
- Nov 9 Greece T-bill redemption for E1.6bln
- Nov 11 Armistice day holiday
... zbieraj pips do pipa bo jak nie to z depo będzie lipa... G."niemiaszek"
crok. pisze:no to japonce bronia jena, wiem , ze ja znowu o tym samym ale cos im ta obrona nie wychodzi a export dramat
A mnie się wydaje, że właśnie ta obrona idzie w dobrym dla nich kierunku mimo wszystko, Szwajcarzy oficjalnie postawili szlaban na 1,2 natomiast Japońce małymi kroczkami idą do przodu, a ich wyraźna ingerencja pozwala sądzić, że ta granica to 75-76i stąd powoli bo powoli ale jednak do góry, w każdym bądź razie w w dłuższym niż jednodniowym okresie eLki wydają się obarczone niewielkim ryzykiem straty i powinny się opłacić.
a export dramat