1. W wątku DT omawiamy bieżąca sytuacje na rynku i to co dotyczy danego dnia. Od dłuższych prognoz jest dział Prognozy, komentarze, analizy
2. Zamieszczamy tylko i wyłącznie swoje analizy. Nie kopiujemy z innych serwisów.
3. Komentarz do własnej analizy nie może mieć charakteru rekomendacji. (to nie jest dział z sygnałami)
4. Kłótnie, ataki na innych użytkowników są niedopuszczalne.
5. Nie zaśmiecamy wątku. (wypowiedzi w stylu: "dałem S", "ja kończę na dziś" itp. jak i chwalenie się swoimi statami)
Nagminne łamanie powyższych zasad będzie skutkować nałozeniem zakazu pisania do końca bieżącego tygodnia.
Recydywa będzie karana ostrzeżeniami.
Przypominam że ponadto obowiązuje Regulamin Forum
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Przedstawione poglądy, oceny, opinie i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów
autorów i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji do nabycia lub zbycia albo
powstrzymania się od dokonania transakcji w odniesieniu do jakichkolwiek walut.
Poglądy te jak i inne treści nie stanowią "rekomendacji" lub "doradztwa"
w rozumieniu ustawy z dnia 29 lipca 2005 o obrocie instrumentami finansowymi.
Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte lub zaniechane
na podstawie poniższych analiz ponosi inwestor.
These euro bears predict the currency will head to $1.20 or lower if a fresh crisis causes investors to dump European assets. The European Central Bank also could buy sovereign bonds to calm markets, which would weaken the euro because it would involve printing money. The euro traded Tuesday at $1.2860, roughly unchanged.
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Ostatnio zmieniony 27 mar 2013, 07:59 przez cugan, łącznie zmieniany 1 raz.
Przedstawione, poglądy, oceny i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów autora i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji autora.Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte i z wykorzystaniem wniosków w nich zawartych, ponosi inwestor.
EUROPE: There is a full calendar Wednesday, with data on both sides of the
Atlantic, along with a full schedule of Central Bank speakers. At 0700GMT,
German February import prices data will be released, followed by German April
consumer climate numbers at 0710GMT. French data at 0745GMT sees the release of
fourth quarter 2012 detailed GDP data. Spanish data is expected at 0800GMT, with
the release of March flash HICP numbers and the February retail sales. Italian
January retail sales numbers will be released at 0900GMT, along with January
industrial orders data
NEWS: CYPRUS FIN MIN: EURO EXIT WOULD BE CATASTROPHIC NEWS: CYPRUS FIN MIN: TOLD EUROGROUP THAT DEAL IS DANGEROUS FOR EU NEWS: CYPRUS FIN MIN: EUROGROUP DECISION WILL BRING RECESSION
GREECE: Total deposits at Greek banks rose in February, eKathimerini reports,
with inflows up E3 bn to almost E164 bn. The website notes that between E500 mn
and E1 bn represented a move of deposits from Cypriot banks.
IRELAND: Irish PM Enda Kenny says talks are ongoing with European officials over
a deal on Ireland's bank debt, despite the "new template" comments from
Eurogroup head.
IRELAND: The Irish Times says property prices in Dublin are 3% higher than a
year ago, although they fell 0.3% m/m between January and February.
UK:UK data is expected at 0930GMT, as Q4 current account data and the 3rd estimate
of the fourth quarter GDP numbers will cross the wires.
UK PRESS: UK plumbing wholesaler Wolseley has axed over a 1000 jobs in the UK
and Europe as EMU uncertainty continues to weigh on the group, the FT says.
UK PRESS: The BOE's FPC will today lay out the "black hole" in British banks,
with estimates suggesting the BOE will say banks will need around stg 38 bn to
set aside for further reparations and fines, the Times says
US/CANADA: Data starts at 1100GMT, with the release of the MBA
mortgage index data for the March 22 week.
Canadian data is released at 1230GMT, with he release of the February CPI data
and the January payroll and employment numbers.
The February NAR Pending Home Sales numbers are due at 1400GMT, followed by the
release of the EIA Crude Oil Stocks data for the March 22 week.
There are a string of Fed speakers in the afternoon. At 1500GMT, Chicago Federal
Reserve Bank President Charles Evans gives a briefing in Chicago. At 1530GMT,
Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Eric Rosengren gives a speech on the
outlook.
Later, at 1615GMT, Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Sandra Pianalto will
deliver a speech on managing monetary policy risks in Cleveland, while at
1630GMT, New York Federal Reserve Bank Executive Vice President Simon Potter
delivers a speech to the Forecasters Club of New York.
Lastly, at 1700GMT, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Narayana
Kocherlakota gives a speech on improving the outlook with monetary policy in
Edina, Minn.
Late US data sees the release of the March Agriculture Prices.
EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY Tuesday at $1.2860 after rate had a violent swing from
lows of $1.2828 to $1.2890, eased to $1.2842 before recovering into the close.
Rate touched an initial low into Asia at $1.2852 before lifting back on euro-yen
demand, the rate edging to a high of $1.2867 before momentum faded and move met
fund supply. Strong dollar-yen demand influenced the rate lower as general
dollar demand emerged, taking it to a session low of $1.2838 before recovering
toward $1.2850 into Europe. Traders note offers in place between $1.2880/90 with
talk that stops are now building between $1.2890 through to $1.2910. A break
here to open a move toward $1.2930/40 which many see as a decent level to re
enter shorts. Support remains at the overnight low at $1.2838, with bids dotted
down to $1.2828 (NY-2013 low), though stops also said to be mixed in. A break
here to expose barrier interest at $1.2825, with stronger demand seen from the
$1.2820 level to $1.2800 with corporates linked to the interest. Another barrier
at $1.2800 to draw demand ahead. Stops noted below. Germany Gfk confidence data
due at 0700GMT followed by releases in the EZ periphery before we get EZ
confidence indicators at 1000GMT. Cyprus headlines remain in focus.
EURO-DOLLAR: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals) $1.3076 NY close Mar15, gap to $1.2958 Asia open Mar18
$1.3048 Monday Mar25 high(Cyprus agreement react)/Offers to $1.3050
$1.3020 Strong offers/$1.3019 European recovery cap Monday
$1.3000 Medium offers on approach
$1.2940/50 Medium offers/Stops $1.2900/10 Strong offers/Stops
$1.2880/90 NY high ($1.2883 - 200-dma); weak stops through $1.2890/1.2900
$1.2862/67 US close/Intraday high Asia
$1.2856 ***Current market rate 0638GMT Wednesday
$1.2853 Intraday low Asia $1.2829/25 NY low/Option barrier
$1.2800 Medium demand on approach/Option barrier
$1.2725/15 Medium demand/$1.2718 1.618% swing proj. $1.2844-1.3048
$1.2662 Tech Nov13 2012 low
$1.2043 Tech July24 2012 low
CABLE: Closed in NY at $1.5159 after recovering off a late pullback low of
$1.5142 (intraday low $1.5135). Rate touched $1.5154 into early Asia before
fresh demand emerged to take it to an overnight high of $1.5168. Recovery
faltered as strong dollar-yen emerged, prompting general dollar demand which
weighed back taking cable to eventual lows of $1.5149. Rate recovered ahead of
Europe to $1.5164, settling around $1.5155 into the new session. Euro-sterling
was contained within a range of stg0.8473-0.84855 having seen a recovery high of
stg0.8499 Tuesday, off lows of stg0.8460. UK domestic data includes the final
reading for Q4 GDP at 0930GMT (median -0.30%QQ, +0.3%YY), though the FPC bank
capital announcement, market looking for any change to its estimate stg24-60bln
shortfall, the main interest. Focus also on Cyprus developments with data on the
day mainly composed of EZ periphery releases, with EZ confidence data due at
1000GMT. A light US calendar follows into the afternoon. Cable support remains
around $1.5150 ahead of $1.5135/25. Resistance $1.5165/75 ahead of $1.5200/10.
In the cross, main support seen at stg0.8460, with resistance remaining into
stg0.8500.
YEN: Dollar-yen closed in NY at Y94.46, off recovery highs of Y94.62, but
quickly resumed its up move as early buyers lifted it on to Y94.71. A brief dip
to Y94.52 met fresh demand that took it on to an eventual overnight high of
Y94.91, the demand seen linked to speculative plays on suggestion that Friday
will see strong government pension fund demand, as well as toushin issuance.
Rate eased away from the high ahead of Europe, finding some support at Y94.70
into the new session. Offers seen placed between Y94.90-95.00, with some
suggestion that interest is linked to an Asian sovereign. Several traders point
to a Nikkei news article from overnight that according to sources close to BOJ
Kuroda that the BOJ board is leaning toward open-ended asset purchases (or
merging APP into the Rinban). Euro-yen closed in NY at Y121.41 and resumed its
recovery trend with rate edging on to Y121.87 before drifting off to Y121.60
into Europe.
JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japan's benchmark stocks are trading modestly higher
Wednesday. The Nikkei 225 was higher by 22.17 points, or 0.18%, at 12493.79.
Into the close, the broader-based TOPIX was higher by 1.66 points at 1046.06.
Market breadth indicators saw 88 issue higher, 124 lower and 12 unchanged.
Preliminary volume stood at 1.255 bn shares.
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: Italy comes to the sovereign bond market Wednesday, which
includes sale of a new benchmark 5-year 3.50% June 2018 BTP for between
E3.0bln-E4.0bln and tap of the benchmark 10-year 4.50% Mar 2023 BTP for between
E2.0bln-E3.0bln. Overall, sovereign bond issuance in the eurozone this week is
now estimated at around E21.04bln after France's new syndicated deal and
compares to E24.7bln sold last week. As a recap, Belgium tapped its 5-year
benchmark 1.25% June 2018 OLO, 10-year benchmark 2.25% June 2023 OLO and also
20-year benchmark 4.00% Mar 2032 OLO issues for combined size of E3.485bln.
Italy tapped its 2-year zero coupon Dec 2014 CTZ bond for E2.825bln and also
linkers 1.70% Sep 2018 BTPei & 2.60% Sep 2023 BTPei issues for combined size of
between E1.0bln. On Tuesday, the Netherlands re-opened its 5-year benchmark
1.25% Jan 2018 DSL for between E2.225bln and France priced its syndicated new
30-year benchmark OAT issue. In terms of reinvestment flows, there redemptions
from Slovakia E0.04bln and Belgium E12.72bln and coupon payments from Italy
E0.2bln and Belgium E6.8bln -- leaves net cash flow negative to the tune of
E1.3bln vs -E24.5bln last week.
FRANCE: The Agence France Tresor (AFT) announced investor/geographic breakdown
of its new syndicated E4.5bln 30-year benchmark OAT priced Tuesday at +8bps
versus the 4.50% 2041 OAT. This was the first 30-year syndicated deal from
France in nearly four years. The re-offer price is 99.737, the yield 3.263% and
the coupon 3.25%.
- Order book reached an amount close to E8bln.
- Asset managers took (31%), banks (33%), hedge funds (16%), insurance & pension
funds (20%).
- Geographical breakdown: United Kingdom 48%, France 23%, Italy 10%, Germany 7%,
Scandinavia 10%, others 2%.
- France, which borrows as the Republic of France and is rated Aa1/AA+/AAA, all
negative outlook, mandated Barclays, BNP Paribas, Morgan Stanley, Royal Bank of
Scotland and Societe Generale as leads for the new OAT, which matures May 25,
2045.
EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- Mar 27 Eurozone flash HICP
- Mar 27 Italy sells new benchmark 5-yr BTP & taps 10-yr BTP for up to E7.0bln
- Mar 27 Italy Bersani reports to President Napolitano on govt talks
- Mar 27 Irish by-election in Meath East
- Mar 28 Cypriot banks expected to reopen?
- Mar 28 Italy T-bill redemption for E10.35bln
- End Mar Earliest date new Italian government can be formed
- Apr 4 ECB Governing Council meeting, Draghi press conference
- Apr 4 Eurogroup chair Dijsselbloem debate with the finance commission
- Apr 4 Spain bond auction
- Apr 8 ESM Regling speaks at FDEF Conference on "Is the Euro crisis over?"
- Apr 10 Italy T-bill auction
- Apr 11 Eurogroup meeting in Dublin
- Apr 12/13 Informal ECOFIN meeting in Dublin
US: Timeline of key events in the US for the next few days:
- Mar 27 Treasury Cpn Purch Feb 15 2036-Feb 15 2043 $1.25-$1.75B
- Mar 27 Fed Evans (voter) breakfast meeting in Chicago at 1100ET
- Mar 27 Fed Rosengren (voter) at St Anselm's College in NH at 1130ET
- Mar 27 Fed Pinalto on monpol risks in Cleveland at 1215ET
- Mar 27 Fed EVP Potter at Cornell Club in NY at 1230ET
- Mar 27 UST auctions $35B 5y at 1300ET
- Mar 27 Fed Kocherlakota (non-voter) on monpol in Edina, Minn at 1300ET
- Mar 28 Q4 GDP (3rd rev), corporate profits, est +0.6% GDP at 0830ET
- Mar 28 Treasury Cpn Purch Mar 31 2017-Nov 30 2017 $4.25-$5.25B
- Mar 28 UST announces 3/6m bills, 52 wk bill at 1100ET
- Mar 28 UST auctions $29B 7y at 1130ET
- Mar 28 Fed releases Apr size, daily schedule of Fed outright buy ops in Tsys
at 1300ET
- Mar 28 CME Group FX & Interest Rate trading to close at 1300ET; US bond market
closes 1400ET
... zbieraj pips do pipa bo jak nie to z depo będzie lipa... G."niemiaszek"
Który z forum wpompował te 100 K na edku i zachwiał rynkiem forex
Przedstawione, poglądy, oceny i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów autora i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji autora.Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte i z wykorzystaniem wniosków w nich zawartych, ponosi inwestor.
cugan pisze:Który z forum wpompował te 100 K na edku i zachwiał rynkiem forex
Ja po837 100 000
Tak myślałem ,ze wyrwiesz się przed szereg
Nawet na City nie poczekał
Przedstawione, poglądy, oceny i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów autora i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji autora.Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte i z wykorzystaniem wniosków w nich zawartych, ponosi inwestor.
