DayTrading: Środa 10.04.2013

Dyskusje na temat aktualnej sesji: komentarze, analizy, opinie.

Prognoza EURUSD na dzisiaj

Czas głosowania minął 10 kwie 2013, 23:42

Wzrost
11
24%
Bez zmian
7
16%
Spadek
27
60%
 
Liczba głosów: 45

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Adam
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Re: DayTrading: Środa 10.04.2013

Nieprzeczytany post autor: Adam »

emiro pisze:
Bemowo pisze:Kabel nie pokonał ostatnich maksimów, co miało miejsce na edku, pomimo, że ruchy wpisują się w trójkąt.
Nie wiem, czy do rana sytuacja się nie zmienni, ale zakładając poprawność oznaczeń ostatniego ruchu wzrostowego widać, że oznaczona fala 5 nie pokonała wierzchołka fali 3, co świadczy o braku siły do wzrostów. Istotne jest także to, że fala 5 zatrzymała się na zniesieniu 50% dużej fali (3).
Jeżeli nie pokonamy wierzchołka fali 3 można zakładać nawet test tegorocznych minimów. Wcześniej jednak do pokonania bardzo silne wsparcie na poziomie 1.5260.
Na najbliższe kilkadziesiąt godzin zakładam konsolidację.
Sygnału sell nie ma!!! Trend jest ewidentnie wzrostowy!!!
coś z oznaczeniami nie pasuje, fala 3 powinna być dużo dłuższa od fali 1 (modelowo 161.8 fali 1) pozdr. :)
Koledze już opada krótszy się zrobił i do modelu daleko
„chcący szuka sposobu, nie chcący szuka powodu"
Dla kogoś, kto nie wie, do jakiego portu zmierza, każdy wiatr jest niepomyślny
- Seneka

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emiro
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Re: DayTrading: Środa 10.04.2013

Nieprzeczytany post autor: emiro »

hehe ;)
Ciężka praca jeszcze nikomu nie zaszkodziła ale po co ryzykować?

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niemiaszek
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Re: DayTrading: Środa 10.04.2013

Nieprzeczytany post autor: niemiaszek »

Hello


EUROPE: Although there is a full calendar scheduled for Wednesday, the main data
releases are largely second tier, with the FOMC minutes the stand-out release.
The calendar gets underway at 0645GMT, with the release of the February
industrial output data. Analysts are looking for a 0.2% increase on month and an
annual fall of 3.9% At 0700GMT, Spanish February industrial output numbers are
expected and will likely top continue to make ugly reading, although analysts
are looking for a very modest uptick to -4.9% y/y. Italian February industrial
output numbers are expected at 0800GMT, with expectations for a 0.5% on month
fall and an annualised fall fo 4.0%. The OECD February leading indicator numbers
are due at 1000GMT.

GREECE: Greece is set to miss monthly budget revenue targets for March,
eKathimerini reports, with the Finance Ministry set to release the data later
Weds.



UK PRESS: The UK has signed an information exchange agreement with France,
Germany, Italy and Spain as the major European powers continue their efforts to
crack down on tax evasion, the Telegraph reports.



EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY at $1.3082 after rate had bounced off pullback lows of
$1.3029 to push above $1.3100, marking session highs of $1.3103 before drifting
off into the close. Rate consolidated this move in early Asia within a range of
$1.3075/85 with an afternoon lift taking it up to $1.3085/91 ahead of the
European open. Rate remains buoyed by euro-yen demand, currently holding just
off those overnight highs around $1.3087. Moves to again be influenced by yen
action through the day, with some positioning (which may already be activated)
expected ahead of tonight's FOMC Minutes (though traders note that this release
could prove a little stale after the recent release of NFP, Fed speakers since
the meeting and action by the BOJ last week). IP data releases for France, Spain
and Sweden, along with CPI in Norway provide the morning's data interest, with a
light US calendar ahead of that mentioned FOMC event.
Offers seen placed from
above $1.3000 through to $1.3015 (covers $1.3014 38.2% $1.3711-1.2745), though
stops seen mixed in between $1.3110/20. Further offers $1.3130 with attention on
the 100-dma at $1.3148. Support remains at $1.3075/70 ahead of $1.3050, $1.3030
and into $1.3000.

EURO-DOLLAR: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
$1.3148 Tech 100-dma/Strong offers into $1.3150
$1.3130/40 Medium offers/Stops
$1.3110/20 Stops mixed in
$1.3100/15 Strong offers/$1.3114 38.2% $1.3711-1.2745

$1.3103 NY high Apr8
$1.3091 Int.Day high Asia
$1.3081 ***Current mkt rate 0622GMT Tuesday
$1.3074 Int.Day low Asia
$1.3075/70 Medium demand/Stops
$1.3050 Medium demand on approach
$1.3050-40 Stops/$1.3038 40-dma
$1.3020 Medium demand
$1.3005/990 Medium demand/$1.2993 NY pullback low Monday/Stops
$1.2980 Strong demand




CABLE: Closed in NY at $1.5322 after rate had bounced in tandem with
euro-dollar, cable off $1.5281 to a high of $1.5342, before it drifted off into
the close. This recovery in cable trailed euro-dollar's stronger move, the rate
failing to break above Friday's post NFP high of $1.5364, which in turn allowed
euro-sterling to push to highs of stg0.8552, having seen lows earlier in the day
of stg0.8508. Cable drifted off into the close, with the corrective pullback
extending to $1.5313 in early Asia before fresh demand emerged. Sterling-yen
demand was again linked to the rate's recovery, cable pushing up to highs of
$1.5340 before rally faltered and rate eased off to the $1.5320 area ahead of
Europe. Support remains in place around $1.5320 (76.4% $1.5313-40), with further
interest seen into $1.5313 (50% $1.5281-1.5342), stops on break of $1.5310. A
move back below $1.5300 to expose stronger demand placed between $1.5280/70.
Resistance remains between $1.5340/50 ahead of $1.5364, with stops now seen
through $1.5365. For the cross, offers remain at stg0.8560/65, ahead of
stg0.8580. Support stg0.8510/00. A light UK data calendar will have traders
taking direction from yen plays, with positioning ahead of FOMC Minutes later.



YEN: Profit take sales noted Tuesday, as dollar-yen backed away from its earlier
Asian highs of Y99.67 (falling just shy of tech resistance at Y99.75 50%
Y124.14/75.35), with strong sales noted from the macro community, though the
retreat met support into dips, finding decent support placed ahead of Y98.50.
Rate closed in NY at Y99.04 after it had seen a volatile session, recovering off
lows of Y98.58 before topping out at Y99.35 ahead of the close. Early demand in
Asia revisited that NY high, touching Y99.34 before dropping back to Y98.93.
Recovery attempts were capped by Y99.20, with rate pressing this area into early
Europe. Traders have commented that large option plays are currently keeping the
rate anchored around Y99.00, noting large expiries for Thursday's NY cut From
Y98.00 through to Y99.50. Until this interest is out of the way it is suggested
that a challenge on Y100.00 could have an easier passage. Barrier interest has
also been noted at Y99.75 and at Y100.00. Ichimoku traders still note Y100.80 as
a near term target. Apart from an early spike to Y129.89, the cross was held in
a range between Y129.40/80 through the main part of Asia, trading around Y129.70
into Europe.

JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japan's benchmark stocks are trading higher Wednesday. The
Nikkei 225 was higher by 95.78 points, or 0.73%, at 13,288.13. Into the close,
the broader-based TOPIX was higher by 19.41 points at 1121.45. Market breadth
indicators saw 166 issue higher, 54 lower and 5 unchanged. Preliminary volume
stood at 3.156 bn shares.


OPTIONS: FX: Option expiries for today's 1000ET cut,
* Euro-dollar; $1.2900, $1.2950, $1.2975, $1.2985, $1.2995, $1.3010, $1.3020,
$1.3050
* Dollar-yen; Y98.00, Y99.00, Y99.20, Y99.50
* Euro-yen; Y129.00
* Euro-sterling; stg0.8500
* Dollar-Swiss; Chf0.9515
* Aussie; $1.0450, $1.0500, $1.0600


EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: Italy will be the final Eurozone sovereign to come to
the T-bill market on Wednesday, with plans to issue E3.0bln in new 3-month Jul
12, 2013 BOT and issue E8.0bln in new 12-month Apr 14, 2014 BOT. To recap on
auctions so far this week, on Monday, Germany sold E3.49bln 6-month Oct 16
Bubill at average yield -0.0002%. In the afternoon, France sold E3.698 3-month
Jul 4 BTF at average yield 0.013%, E1.496bln 6-month Sep 5 BTF at average yield
0.029% and E1.999bln 12-month Apr 3 BTF at average yield 0.067%. On Tuesday
Greece sold E1.3bln in new 26-week Oct 11 T-bill at average yield 4.25%. The ESM
sold E1.996bln 3-month Jul 11 Bill at average yield -0.0127%.

EUROZONE ISSUANCE: Germany comes to the sovereign bond market Wednesday with
re-opening of its 2-year benchmark 0.25% 2015 Schatz issue for up to E5.0bln.
Also possible is Austria's syndicated new 10-year deal after it mandated
Barclays, Goldman Sachs International, HSBC, Morgan Stanley and Raiffeisen Bank
International as lead banks. Overall, sovereign bond issuance in the eurozone
this week is so far estimated at E19.54bln vs E15.28bln sold last week. So far,
Germany has sold a 5-year linker 0.75% Apr 2018 Boblei issue Tuesday for up to
E1.0bln, Finland priced E4.0bln of new syndicated 10-year benchmark bond and
the Netherlands re-opened its 20-year benchmark 2.50% 2033 DSL for E2.035bln.
The EFSF priced E8.0bln new 5-year syndicated bond on Tuesday. Looking ahead,
Italy sells a new benchmark 3-year 2.25% 2016 BTP for between E3.0bln-E4.0bln,
tap 15-year 4.75% 2028 BTP for between E1.5bln-E2.0bln and tap its floater June
2017 CCTeu for between E1.0bln-E1.5bln. On Friday, Belgium is due to conduct its
ORI auction, but yet to confirm. In terms of reinvestment flows, redemption from
Germany for E17.0bln and coupon payment also from Germany for E1.7bln -- turns
net cash flow positive to the tune of E3.9ln vs -E15.0bln last week.

ITALY T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: The Italian Dipartimento Del Tesoro plan to issue
E3.0bln of a new 3-month Jul 12, 2013 BOT and issue E8.0bln of a new 12-month
Apr 14, 2014 BOT on Wednesday. Currently the market is turning a blind eye to
Italy still being without a government as yields continue to fall. Currently, in
the grey market the new Jul 12 BOT is trading around 0.31%, 2.5bps discount to
old Jul 12 BOT representing good value. As for the new Apr 14, 2014 BOT,
mid-yield on the grey market is seen around 1.02%, a 7.0bps discount versus the
old 12-month BOT, representing fair value. Aiding demand for the new BOTs is
that fact that there will be a E8.8bln BOT redemption on Apr 12, leaving net
cash flow negative to the tune of E2.2bln. For comparison the last 3-month BOT
auction was back on Oct 2012 and therefore not comparable, while at the last
12-month BOT auction back on Mar 12, the Tesoro sold E7.75bln at average yield
of 1.28% and covered 1.50 times. Results due to be announced around 0905GMT.

GERMAN AUCTION PREVIEW: The Deutsche Finanzagentur re-opens its 2-year benchmark
0.25% Mar 2015 Schatz issue Wednesday for up to E5.0bln. This is the second tap
of this issue and adds to the E10.0bln currently outstanding. The issue trades
at 0.03% mid-yield -- well above recent rich level of -0.046%. Also, the key
factor underpinning demand is fact the 0.25% 2015 Schatz is the
cheapest-to-deliver into the June Schatz futures contract and also the E17.0bln
redemption from Germany due on Apr 12. Moreover, historic results have also been
solid. At the last auction on Mar 13, where E4.315bln was alloted an average
yield 0.06%, bid-to-cover ratio of 1.7 times, with the Buba retaining 13.7% of
the sale. At the inaugural auction on Feb 13, E4.301bln was alloted at an
average yield of 0.21% and then covered 1.77 times, with the Buba retaining
13.98% of the sale. The average cover ratio of the last 5-auctions is 1.74
times. This is the last re-opening of this issue before a new June Schatz issue
is launched on May 15 for up to E5.0bln. Auction results due shortly after
bidding closes at 0930GMT.


EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- Apr 10 Italy sells 3-/12-month T-bills for up to E11.0bln
- Apr 11 Eurogroup meeting in Dublin
- Apr 11 Spanish March Target 2 data and central bank lending figures
- Apr 11 Italy sells new 3Y BTP, taps 15Y BTP, floater CCTeu for up to E7.5bln
- Apr 12/13 Informal ECOFIN meeting in Dublin
- Apr 12 Italy T-bill redemption for E8.8bln
- Apr 15/16 Economist 17th Roundtable with Government of Greece
- Apr 15 Italy joint session of parliament called to elect new President
- Apr 15 Italy bond redemption of 4.25% 2013 BTP for E16.7bln
- Apr 16 Spain 6-/12-month T-bill auctions
- Apr 16/17 IMF publishes Global Financial Stability Report
- Apr 18/19 G20 FinMin & Central Bank Governors' meeting
- Apr 18 Spain bond auction
- Apr 18 Ireland bond redemption
- Apr 19/21 IMF/World Bank Spring meetings

US: Timeline of key events in the US for the next few days:
- Apr 10 Pres Obama to release FY2014 budget
- Apr 10 Fed Kocherlakota (non-voter) at Atlanta Fed conf at 0830ET
- Apr 10 Fannie Mae to announce Benchmark Note issuance
- Apr 10 White House budget director Zients briefing on FY2014 budget at 1230ET
- Apr 10 UST auctions $21Bn 9y, 10m reopen at 1300ET
- Apr 10 Fed Fisher (non-voter) in El Paso, TX at 1300ET
- Apr 10 IMF Lagarde at Econ Club in NY at 1300ET
- Apr 10 FOMC minutes from Mar 19-20 at 1400ET :!:
- Apr 10 Mar Treasury Statement, est $107Bn at 1600ET
- Apr 11 Fed Plosser (non-voter) at MNI seminar in Hong Kong at 0600ET
- Apr 11 Fed Bullard (voter) in Washington at 0830ET
- Apr 11 Tsy Lew testifies House Ways & Means C'ttee on White House budget plan
- Apr 11 Outright Tsy Coupon Purch 05/15/2020-02/15/2023 $2.75-$3.5b
- Apr 11 UST auctions $13Bn 29y, 10m reopen at 1300ET
- Apr 12 Fed Rosengren (voter) opens Boston Fed Econ Conf at 0845ET
Nie masz wymaganych uprawnień, aby zobaczyć pliki załączone do tego posta.
Ostatnio zmieniony 10 kwie 2013, 08:42 przez niemiaszek, łącznie zmieniany 1 raz.
... zbieraj pips do pipa bo jak nie to z depo będzie lipa... G."niemiaszek"

xantiros
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Re: DayTrading: Środa 10.04.2013

Nieprzeczytany post autor: xantiros »

Soros marzy aby Niemcy wyszły z Euro :D

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013 ... -quit-euro
Za jakiś czas WR 104 zmiecie ten cały bajzel...... i nastanie cisza.....

zeuss
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Re: DayTrading: Środa 10.04.2013

Nieprzeczytany post autor: zeuss »

ostatnie tchnienia wzrostów w fali 5 stopnia nieważne jakiego i tak wam nic to nie powie :D
obstawiać dema w eSki!!! :P
Obrazek

psxor
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Re: DayTrading: Środa 10.04.2013

Nieprzeczytany post autor: psxor »

ostatnie tchnienia wzrostów w fali 5 stopnia nieważne jakiego i tak wam nic to nie powie :D
obstawiać dema w eSki!!! :P

Mam podobne zdanie i analize, ja już zapakowany w eski od 130 :D

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kk.dreamer
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Re: DayTrading: Środa 10.04.2013

Nieprzeczytany post autor: kk.dreamer »

Witam. Pytanie do kolego Niemiaszka. Mógłbyś podać źródło, linka, gdzie te dane są, które wstawiasz? Chodzi mi o kalendarz ekonomiczny
Drodzy Panowie Panie również trejdują...

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kashper
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Re: DayTrading: Środa 10.04.2013

Nieprzeczytany post autor: kashper »

zeuss pisze:ostatnie tchnienia wzrostów w fali 5 stopnia nieważne jakiego i tak wam nic to nie powie :D
obstawiać dema w eSki!!! :P
Nie wiem, czy mówisz poważnie, czy nie. Mimo uśmieszku na końcu wypowiedzi mam podobne zdanie. Należy się ogromna korekta na wszystkich parach i zbiera się na to mam nadzieję już od kilku dni.
Jeden TF daje wystarczająco dużo wątpliwości co do kierunku przyszłego ruchu.
O dywersyfikacji + wypłaty + statystyki + podsumowanie z pierwszego dziennika

jumper
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Re: DayTrading: Środa 10.04.2013

Nieprzeczytany post autor: jumper »

Witam,

Kalendarz wydarzeń dla FX wygląda jak dane z http://www.myfxbook.com/forex-economic-calendar

pozdrawiam

zeuss
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Re: DayTrading: Środa 10.04.2013

Nieprzeczytany post autor: zeuss »

kashper pisze:
zeuss pisze:ostatnie tchnienia wzrostów w fali 5 stopnia nieważne jakiego i tak wam nic to nie powie :D
obstawiać dema w eSki!!! :P
Nie wiem, czy mówisz poważnie, czy nie. Mimo uśmieszku na końcu wypowiedzi mam podobne zdanie. Należy się ogromna korekta na wszystkich parach i zbiera się na to mam nadzieję już od kilku dni.
niestety na wszystkich parach jednocześnie korekta jest niemożliwa :?

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