Hello
EUROPE: There is a full calendar on both sides of the Atlantic Wednesday, with
some US data releases pushed forward by 24 hours ahead of the Independence Day
holiday on Thursday. The European calendar gets underway with a string of
service sector survey data, starting at 0713GMT with the release of the Spanish
June service sector PMI numbers. At 0730GMT, Sweden's Riksbank releases the
June Monetary Policy Report. More service sector PMI numbers come through at
0743GMT when Italian numbers cross the wires, followed by French data at
0748GMT, German at 0753GMT and the collated EMU data at 0758GMT. Economists
are looking for a tick up across the data following the slightly better than
expected manufacturing numbers seen earlier in the week. There is further EMU
data set for release at 0900GMT when the May retail sales data will cross the
wires. EC Jose Manuel is scheduled to attend the Youth Unemployment Summit, in
Berlin, from 1000GMT. Back in Europe, Buba Board member Joachim Nagel speech on
internationalising the renminbi, in Frankfurt from 1240GMT. Angela Merkel will
give a press conference after the European conference on youth unemployment, in
Berlin from 1515GMT.
EURO SUMMARY: Euro-dollar closed in NY Tuesday at $1.2979 after rate was pressed
to lows of $1.2964 during the NY afternoon, paring part of these losses into the
close. Rate extended its recovery to $1.2984 in early Asian dealing before
drifting back off to $1.2966. Rate then bounced to $1.2981 before settling
around $1.2970 ahead of the European open. Asian traders note demand remains in
place between $1.2965/50, with tech traders noting that the 76.4% retracement of
$1.2796-1.3418 comes in behind at $1.2943 with stops seen placed on a break of
$1.2940. Offers remain into $1.2985, more at $1.3000, though main sell interest
noted around $1.3050. Traders also note that a decent sized $1.3055 strike
option rolls off at the NY cut. EZ services PMI data due this morning from
0713GMT, through to full EZ release at 0758GMT, with EZ retail sales data
following at 0800GMT. US data will turn focus toward employment, the market
gauging the timing of Fed tapering as well as looking for clues to Friday's key
NFP. ADP data due at 1215GMT followed by weekly jobless claims (brought forward
due to US holiday Thursday) and the employment component in the non-mfg ISM at
1400GMT.
STERLING SUMMARY: Cable closed in NY Tuesday at $1.5156 after rate had been
pressed to extended lows of $1.5137 earlier in the session in Europe, visiting
$1.5139 in NY before recovering into the close. Dollar strength, as well as
market positioning for any dovish tone forthcoming from new BOE Governor Carney
after tomorrow's MPC decision (though no change in rates/QE expected at
tomorrow's meeting) has seen cable under pressure, despite release Tuesday of
construction PMI which remained in growth territory. Focus today will turn to UK
services PMI at 0828GMT, ahead of release of BOE credit conditions at 0830GMT.
Euro-sterling was held within a tight stg0.85595-0.85655 range in Asia,
consolidating its corrective pullback off Tuesday highs of stg0.8595, leaving
cable to track euro-dollar moves overnight. Cable support seen at $1.5140/35
ahead of $1.5120/10. Further demand then seen at $1.5100, stops below $1.5090.
The $1.5050 level to provide stronger support, 76.4% $1.4832-1.5753. Resistance
seen at $1.5165, with further interest then dotted through to $1.5180 with stops
above.
YEN SUMMARY: Dollar-yen closed in NY Tuesday at Y100.61 after rate had taken out
barriers at Y100.00 and Y100.50-60 as it pushed to a session high of Y100.73.
Early demand for dollar-yen into Asia saw rate extend recovery to Y100.86 with
market aware that the Y101.00 level holds larger barrier interest with decent
defence sell interest noted ahead, the level also holding the strike of expiring
plain vanilla options for today's NY cut, with similar interest also noted for
Thursday and Friday. Dollar-yen held firm into the Tokyo fix before turning
lower, Tuesday's rise in dollar-yen had market expecting Nikkei to track this
move but disappointed, quickly turning negative which took rate down to Y100.44.
Recovery to Y100.80 into the Asian afternoon before it settled around Y100.70
ahead of Europe. Demand seen in place from Y100.40 through to Y100.20, though
CTA stops seen mixed in below Y100.25. Stronger Japanese importer demand now
seen placed into Y100.00, stops placed on a break of Y99.90. Resistance, as
noted above, seen into barrier interest at Y101.00, with tech traders expecting
decent resistance to emerge into the Ichimoku cloud top at Y101.30.
JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japan's benchmark stocks are narrowly Wednesday, again
unable to hold all of the mid-session gains. The Nikkei 225 was lower by 43.18
points, or 0.31%, at 14055.56. Into the close, the broader-based TOPIX was
higher by 0.7 points at 1172.45. Market breadth indicators saw 91 issues higher,
120 lower and 14 unchanged. Preliminary volume stood at 1.687 bn shares.
OPTIONS: Expiries for today's 1000ET cut,
* Euro-dollar; $1.2930, $1.2950, $1.2955, $1.3000, $1.3025, $1.3035, $1.3050,
$1.3055(large)
* Dollar-yen; Y99.50, Y100.00, Y100.20, Y100.30, Y100.40, Y100.50,
Y101.00(large)
* Cable; $1.5200, $1.5300
* Euro-sterling; stg0.8550
* Dollar-Swiss; Chf0.9450, Chf0.9500, Chf0.9525, Chf0.9540, Chf0.9600
* Euro-Sek; Sek8.7150
* Aussie; $0.9000, $0.9145
* Kiwi; $0.7900
EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: Eurozone sovereign T-bill issuance has been completed
for this week, with E12.687bln allocated by Netherlands, France and Belgium,
compared to E20.912bln allotted last week. To recap issuance so far this week,
on Monday, Netherlands sold E1.88bln 3-month DTC at average yield -0.02% and
E1.16bln 12-month DTC at average yield 0.11%. In the afternoon France sold
E4.196bln 3-month BTF at average yield 0.036%, E1.985bln 6-month BTF at average
yield 0.058% and E1.793bln 12-month BTF at average yield 0.171%. On Tuesday
Belgium sold E753mln 3-month T-bill at average yield 0.027% and sold E920mln
6-month T-bill at average yield 0.04%. T-bill issuance is expected pick up
significantly next week with plans from Germany, France, Greece, ESM and Italy,
and is expected to total E22.5bln.
EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- Jul 03 EU labour ministers meet to discuss youth unemployment
- Jul 03 EU Barroso to attend Youth Unemployment Summit, in Berlin
- Jul 03 EMU Jun final svc PMI
- Jul 04 ECB Governing Council meeting, Draghi press conference in Frankfurt
- Jul 04 Spain taps 3-year/new 5-year Bono bonds for up to E4.0bln
- Jul 04 Cyprus bond redemption for E714.6mln
- Jul 05 German upper house votes on 2013 supplementary federal budget
- Jul 05 ECB announces 3-year LTRO repayment for following week
- Jul 05 EU Rehn to speak at the "Summer Symposium", in Mikkeli, Finland
- Jul 08 Eurogroup meeting
- Jul 09 EconFin meeting
- Jul 10 ECB start of reserve maintenance period
- Jul 10 Italy T-bill auction
- Jul 11 Italy BTP auctions
- Jul 12 ECB announces 3-year LTRO repayment for following week
US: Timeline of upcoming key events in the US:
- Jul 02 ICSC-Goldman Store Sales at 0745ET
- Jul 02 ISM-NY Business Index at 0945ET
- Jul 02 May Factory Orders, est +2% at 1000ET
- Jul 02 Fed Outright TCoup Purch 2/15/2036-05/15/2043 $1.25-$1.75b
- Jul 02 Jun Domestic Vehicle Sales, est 12.3m
- Jul 02 UST auctions 4wk at 1130ET
- Jul 02 Fed Dudley (voter) in Stamford, CT at 1230ET
- Jul 02 Fed Gov. Powell on intl finreg in New York at 1745ET
- Jul 03 MBA Mortgage Index at 0700ET
- Jul 03 June Challenger Layoffs at 0730ET
- Jul 03 Jun ADP Natl Employment Report, est +160k pvt at 0815ET
- Jul 03 Jobless Claims, est 345k at 0830ET
- Jul 03 May Intl Trade Balance, est -$40.1b at 0830ET
- Jul 03 ISM Non-Mfg Index, est 54 at 1000ET
- Jul 03 Fed Outright TCoup Purch 04/30/2018-03/31/2019 $4.75-$5.75b
-- Dodano: śr 03-07-2013, 8:18 --
pkubiu pisze:Goldman o EURUSD
dla edka "kupuj" z ST 1,2800 i TP 1,3500.
http://forex-nawigator.biz/forum/pogadu ... ml#p598457
pytanie czy mimo wszystko warto było zamykać...
