DayTrading: Poniedziałek 8.04.2013

[Nevermind]

Na uj m5, poziom 161,8 małej korekty zbiega się z poziomem też 161,8 na h4, zobaczy się, w sumie 9.04 będzie wysyp info makro z Chin może coś się wykrełuje wyraźniejszego

[Nowy123]

i moga domykac luke teraz juz na S

[Nevermind]

Coś mi się widzi że na GBPJ pociągnie przynajmniej do 161% ale to w dłuższym terminie

[mmpolska]

Witam, myslicie, ze usd/jpy dobije w miare szybko do 100 ? ps. usd/pln przebija trojkat...
'Owocnego' tygodnia...uwazajcie na ptasia grype

[cajto]

[quote="mmpolska"] ps. usd/pln przebija trojkat...
/quote]
Co za trójkąt, gdzie on?

Ja tam widzę wyjście z kanału na H4 i dziabnięcie 38.2F. Teraz prawdopodobny PB, zważywszy że Fiber też raczej będzie korekcił, a potem dalej w dół.

[Bemowo]

Dzień Dobry

ejek - jeszcze się pobujamy góra dół i potem up, nadal zakładam, że luki nie domkną

[niemiaszek]

Hello



EUROPE: The markets are up and running after the shortened Easter holiday
weekend, although there is only limited data in Europe. Monday's session gets
underway at 0900GMT when German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Russian President
Vladimir Putin give a joint press conference at the Hanover industry fair. At
0930GMT, the German government gives a press conference, in Berlin. The only
eurozone data set for release is expected at 1000GMT, with the release of the
German February industrial output numbers. Through Monday and Tuesday, Treasury
Secretary Lew is in Europe for meetings with officials. At 1200GMT, German
Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble is slated to give a speech on strengthening
EU institutions, in Mannheim. At 1600GMT, Bundesbank board member Carl-Ludwig
Thiele is due to speak in Stuttgart.

PORTUGAL: The front page of the FT underlines the difficulties Portugal PM
Coelho faces after the Constitutional Court ruled parts of the austerity
programme "unconstitutional." In a TV address Sunday, the PM said the government
would have to cut spending on health, education and social security.

GERMAN PRESS: The ECB's assessment of the Eurozone's economic outlook has not
changed, ECB Governing Council member Jens Weidmann told the German radio
Deutschlandfunk on Sunday. "What is clear is that our baseline scenario that we
see in our outlook, namely of a gradual recovery, is still valid," Weidmann said
when asked about a possible interest rate cut. He acknowledged that the outlook
is now subject to greater risks. While Weidmann declined to speculate over
policy moves ahead, his comments may be seen as an attempt quench expectations
of a rate cut as soon as next month.



UK PRESS: In a televised address on Sunday, Portugal's prime minister Pedro
Passos Coelho said the government will have to cut spending in some areas to
ensure its E78 bln bailout program is on track and a second bailout is avoided,
The Financial Times reports. His comments follow the court's rejection of 4 out
of 9 austerity measures last week which may pose a serious risk to the nation's
effort to regain access to international bond markets by a September deadline,
the report said.

UK PRESS: The FT notes UK PM Cameron is set to embark on a "Grand Tour" of
European capitals to woo EU leaders in his attempts to push the EU reform
agenda. Cameron is set to visit Madrid, Paris and Berlin this week.

UK PRESS: A leading UK union leader says "millions" of workers in the UK would
answer calls for a "generalised strike action," the Telegraph says. Mark
Serwotka, head of the PCS, said workers were not prepared to "accept their lot"
in austerity Britain.

UK PRESS: The FT says the price of copper is likely to fall in coming months, as
investors bet on a "collapse" in prices as copper production rises at the
fastest pace in a decade.

UK PRESS: Supermarkets in the UK and Australia are rationing infant formula due
to strong growth in Chinese demand for foreign-made baby milk following safety
scandals in the past, The Financial Times reports. Strong demand for milk
coupled with drought in the North Island have pushed up milk prices sharply in
recent Fonterra's global trade auction. Such high prices will mean bigger payout
for New Zealand's dairy farmers and will keep the economy well-supported thereby
offsetting some of the negative effect of drought on GDP.




CFTC: Speculative accounts added to their net euro short position and trimmed
their net yen short position as of April 2, according to U.S. CFTC data,
released late Friday. The CFTC's COT report -- non-commercial, futures-only
section, excluding options -- showed speculators had a net euro short position
of -65,701 contracts as of Tuesday, compared to last week's net euro short of
-49,095 contracts. This was the largest net euro short position since November
27. Spec accounts had a net yen short of -78,171 contracts as per April 2,
versus the prior week's net yen short of -89,149 contracts and the yen short of
-94,401 contracts from December 11, which was the largest net yen short position
since July 2007. The euro closed near $1.2820 and dollar-yen at Y93.44 April 2,
which compared to closing levels Friday at $1.3010 and Y97.70.


EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY at $1.2990 after rate had been pressured to extended
recovery highs of $1.3040 on reaction to weaker than forecast US NFP data, with
the corrective pullback into the close seen on the back of news that the
Portuguese Constitutional Court had rejected four out of nine contested
austerity measures, which could deprive the country of roughly E900mln in
savings and revenue benefits in its E5bln package. Euro-dollar was marked down
into the Asian open, early Wellington opening around $1.2965 as market reacted
to press articles concerning the knock on effect of the Portuguese court
decision, but rate met willing buyers in the dip to $1.2962 which took the rate
back above $1.3000 and on to $1.3006, the move aided by early demand for
euro-yen out of Tokyo as the Japanese currency continued to soften following
last week's BOJ policy announcement. Rate settled between $1.2980/1.3000 through
the balance of the session, trading around $1.2983 into Europe. Yen remains a
key directional element into Monday trade. Germany IP at 1000GMT the data
interest. Bids $1.2980, $1.2965/60. Offers $1.3010, $1.3040/50.

EURO-DOLLAR: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
$1.3130 Medium offers
$1.3100/15 Strong offers/$1.3114 38.2% $1.3711-1.2745
$1.3080 Medium offers/Stops
$1.3050 $1.3048 Mar25 high/Strong offers into $1.3050 barrier/Stops
$1.3020-40 Medium offers dotted between/$1.3040 NFP react highs Fri Apr5
$1.3010 Medium offers/Stops
$1.3006 Int.Day high Asia
$1.2977 ***Current mkt rate 0626GMT Monday
$1.2962 Int.Day low Asia
$1.2960/50 Medium demand/$1.2954 61.8% $1.2901-1.3040/Stops
$1.2935/30 Medium demand/Stops
$1.2900 Strong demand on approach/$1.2901 Fri Apr5 low
$1.2897 Tech 200-dma
$1.2890 Stops


CABLE: Closed in NY Friday at $1.5336 after rate had been pushed to highs of
$1.5364 on reaction to the release of weaker than forecast US jobs data, with
demand for sterling-yen seen as a key upside driving force. Rate dipped to
$1.5298 into opening Wellington trade, marked down in tandem with euro-dollar
following weekend press reaction to the decision by the Portuguese
constitutional court to reject part of the austerity plans before picking up
demand that edged it back to $1.5352 before it drifted off to $1.5320 into
Europe. Euro-sterling, which had seen initial react highs of stg0.8517 on
release of US data, as cable lagged euro-dollar's react, was pressed back to
lows of stg0.8472 into the NY close on that sterling-yen demand. The cross edged
to stg0.8478 in early Asian trade before pressing down to stg0.8464, recovering
to stg0.8475 into Europe. Sterling remains firm though traders noted that decent
sell interest had emerged into the extended cable rally Friday suggesting that
not all are convinced in this recovery, and still look to sell back into cable
strength. Cable offers remain around $1.5350, more toward Friday's $1.5364 high.
Support $1.5300-1.5290.


YEN: As was reported Friday morning, those that had missed out on the post BOJ
reaction rally were indeed awaiting reactive dips to a poor US jobs number
release. The weak data initially prompted dollar sales but buyers were waiting
between Y95.80/70. This demand bounced rate initially to Y97.26, with custodial
buys late in the session cited for taking out barriers at Y97.50 and Y97.75
before it topped out at Y97.83. Rate closed the week at Y97.57, resuming its
rally into early Asian dealing. Nikkei report that the BOJ is expected to
kick-off its new monetary-easing program by buying a total of Y1.2tln this week,
as well as suggesting MUFG is in advanced talks to buy Deutsche Bank's US
property loan arm for Y360bln, provided the fuel to take dollar-yen to Y98.85,
before it consolidated this move within an outside range of Y98.30/70 through
the balance of the session. Talk of decent offers placed into Y99.00, though
option links so far not suggested. However, traders mention that large Y98.00,
Y98.25 and Y98.50 strikes are set to roll off at the NY cut and could anchor.
Further offers noted into Y100.00 and at the monthly Ichimoku cloud at Y100.19.

DOLLAR-YEN: Consolidates overnight gains in early European trade and grinds
higher to Y98.60. On the topside offers seen into Y98.85/90 (Y98.85 - Asian
high), stronger behind protecting the Y99.00 barrier. Euro-yen currently flirts
around Y128.00, Offers reported at Y128.20, a break opens Y128.44 (Asian high),
more offers behind ahead of the Y128.50 barrier.

JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japan's benchmark stocks are trading sharply higher Monday,
hitting the best levels in over five years, boosted by BOJ operations. The
Nikkei 225 was higher by 358.95 points, or 2.80%, at 13192.59. Into the close,
the broader-based TOPIX was higher by 35.04 points at 1101.28. Market breadth
indicators saw 212 issue higher, 8 lower and 5 unchanged. Preliminary volume
stood at 2.65 bn shares.



OPTIONS: FX: Option expiries for today's 1000ET cut,
* Euro-dollar; $1.2800, $1.2920, $1.2950, $1.3115, $1.3250
* Dollar-yen; Y97.00, Y98.00, Y98.25, Y98.50 (all large)
* Euro-yen; Y125.50, Y127.00
* Aussie; $1.0435


EUROZONE ISSUANCE: Sovereign bond issuance in the eurozone next week is
scheduled from Belgium, Germany, Italy along with the Netherlands and is
expected to total E14.0bln vs E15.28bln sold last week. The Austrian Federal
Financing Agency (AFFA) has cancelled its auction on Tuesday and said it will
instead open a new line of bond by syndication in April. Risk is on a new
10-year benchmark RAGB bond and books are likely to open as early as this week.
In addition, the EFSF risks coming to the market with a syndicated deal. The
Dutch State Treasury Agency is due to tap its 20-year benchmark 2.50% Jan 2033
DSL on Tuesday for between E1.5bln-E2.5bln. On Wednesday, Germany re-opens its
2-year benchmark 0.25% Mar 2015 Schatz issue for up to E5.0bln. On Thursday,
Italy's mid-month BTP auction is scheduled, where new benchmark 3-year BTP and
tap of 15-year BTP is likely for up to E7.0bln. On Friday, Belgium is due to
conduct its ORI auction, yet to confirm. In terms of reinvestment flows,
redemption from Germany for E17.0bln and coupon payment also from Germany for
E1.7bln -- turns net cash flow positive to the tune of E4.7bln vs -E15.0bln last
week.

EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: Eurozone Sovereign T-bill issuance for this week are
planned from Germany, France, Greece, ESM and Italy. Supply is estimated to be
around E25.0bln, up from E13.588bln issued last week. First up on Monday will be
Germany who plan issue new 6-month Oct 16, 2013 Bubill for up to E4.0bln. In the
afternoon France plan to re-open 3-month Jul 4 BTF for between E3.3-E3.7bln,
re-open 6-month Sep 5 BTF for between E1.1-E1.5bln and re-open 12-month Apr 3,
2014 BTF for between E1.6-E2.0bln. On Tuesday, Greece plan to issue new 26-week
Oct 11, 2013 T-bill for E1.0bln. The ESM plans to issue new 3-month Jul 11, 2013
Bill for up to E2.0bln. Finally on Wednesday Italy plans to issue new 3-month
July 12, 2013 BOT for E3.0bln and issue new 12-month Apr 14, 2014 BOT, for
8.0bln. In terms of T-bill redemptions for this week, we have, Germany E4.0bln,
France E7.592bln, Greece E1.6bln, Italy E8.8bln and ESM E1.927bln giving
potential negative net cash flow of E1.08bln.

GERMAN T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: The Deutsche Finanzagentur is planning to issue
up to E4.0bln of a new 6-month Bubill maturing Oct 16, 2013 on Monday. Current
6-month Bubill yield has gradually moved lower and into negative territory on
safe haven buying as concerns over EU growth re-surface following Cyprus bank
bail-in and weakening EMU data. For comparison at the last 6-month T-bill
auction back on Mar 11, the treasury allotted E3.24bln at an average yield of
0.0103%, cover of 2.0 times, and with E760mln or 19% retained for secondary
market operations. At last months sale, the 6-month Eonia rate was around
0.081%, therefore giving a spread of -7.07bps, currently 6-month Eonia is seen
around 0.08% level. There will be a Bubill redemption of E4.0bln this week,
leaving net cash flow flat. Results due to be announced shortly after 0930GMT.


EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- Apr 8 Italian March Target 2 data and central bank lending figures
- Apr 8 ESM Regling speaks at FDEF Conference on "Is the Euro crisis over?"
- Apr 8 German FinMin Schaeuble gives speech on strengthening EU institutions
- Apr 8/9 US Treasury Secretary Lew meets EU officials
- Apr 9 EU Van Rompuy/Barroso meets Slovenian PM Bratusek
- Apr 10 Italy sells 3-/12-month T-bills for up to E11.0bln
- Apr 11 Eurogroup meeting in Dublin
- Apr 11 Spanish March Target 2 data and central bank lending figures
- Apr 12/13 Informal ECOFIN meeting in Dublin
- Apr 12 Italy T-bill redemption for E8.8bln
- Apr 15/16 Economist 17th Roundtable with Government of Greece
- Apr 15 Italy joint session of parliament called to elect new President
- Apr 15 Italy bond redemption of 4.25% 2013 BTP for E16.7bln
- Apr 16 Spain 6-/12-month T-bill auctions
- Apr 16/17 IMF publishes Global Financial Stability Report


US: Timeline of key events in the US for the next few days:
- Apr 08 Tsy Lew in Brussels, then meets ECB Pres Draghi in Frankfurt
- Apr 09 Tsy Lew meets w/ German and French FinMins in Berlin and Paris
- Apr 08 UST announces 4wk at 1100ET
- Apr 08 Outright TIPS Purch 04/15/2017-02/15/2043 $1-$1.50billion
- Apr 08 UST auctions 3/6m bills at 1130ET
- Apr 08 Mar Treasury Allotment at 1500ET
- Apr 09 Fed Lacker (non-voter) on TBTF in Richmond at 0930ET
- Apr 09 Outright Tsy Coupon Purch 02/15/2036-02/15/2043 $1.25-$1.75bn
- Apr 09 UST auctions 4wk, 52wk at 1130ET
- Apr 09 UST auctions 3y at 1300ET
- Apr 10 Pres Obama to release FY2014 budget
- Apr 10 Fed Kocherlakota (non-voter) at Atlanta Fed conf at 0830ET
- Apr 10 Fannie Mae to announce Benchmark Note issuance
- Apr 10 UST auctions 10y reopen at 1300ET
- Apr 10 Fed Fisher (non-voter) in El Paso, TX at 1300ET

[richard.cali]

ten wyskok w gore tylko mnie utwierdził w przekonaniu ze ładnie w dol skorekcimy,.... stopy musiały polecieć najpierw... ja tam od 151 na rzeźniku gbpjpy w S-ce ze stopka 152 i niech sie dzieje wola...rynku

uważaj na własne stopy lepiej, kiedy ta korekta?

[Bemowo]

GBP JPY

identycznie jak ejek

BoJ znalazł już kolegów w postaci banków

[niemiaszek]

OPTIONS: FX: Option expiries for today's 1000ET cut, update
* Euro-dollar; $1.2800, $1.2920, $1.2950, $1.3000, $1.3115, $1.3250
* Dollar-yen; Y97.00, Y98.00, Y98.25, Y98.50 (all large)
* Euro-yen; Y125.50, Y127.00
* Aussie; $1.0370, $1.0400, $1.0425, $1.0435
* Dollar-Canada; C$1.0185