DayTrading: Poniedziałek 6.05.2013

[ukulele]

Forex to taki sam rynek jak gielda warzyw (tylko produkty sa inne) a wasze wypowiedzi brzmia tak niedorzecznie jak: "zastanawiam sie, czy producenci pomidorow podciagna cene zeby przetestowac opor". Ogorki robia potrojny szczyt, grubasy ogorkowe podciagna jeszcze rynek o 20 zl a pozniej wyprzedaz magazynow. Nikt o takich glupotach nie mysli a rynek nie dziala wedlug analizy technicznej. Mylicie przyczyne ze skutkiem.

[adk77]

mówię o poziomach 1,5596 na kablu i 1,3138 na edku w nocnej sesji

[rajdel]

czy mi się wydaje czy edek, ejek i ujek na zdjazd się szykują? czy szykuje się zmyłka przed odbiciem?

[niemiaszek]

Hello


EUROPE: There is a full data calendar in Europe Monday, although market
reactions could be muted, with the UK centre closed to celebrate the Bank
Holiday. The early releases on the Continent will see the final April services
PMI numbers cross the wires. Spanish services PMI numbers are first up, at
0713GMT, followed by Italy at 0743GMT, France at 0748GMT, Germany at 0753GMT and
the overall EMU data due at 0758GMT . No doubt these PMI data will confirm the
narrative already seen in the flash data 10 days or so ago and which proved, in
part, the catalyst for he ECB to take the recent policy action it did. At
0900GMT, the EMU March retail trade numbers will hit the screens. At 1300GMT,
ECB President Mario Draghi is slated to speak in Rome, with ears open to any
nuances following the rate cut last Thursday.

EUROPE: Comments form Pierre Moscovici, French FinMin, are likely to further
undermine the simmering tensions between Germany and France, the FT says.
According to the FT, Moscovici hailed the "end of the dogma of austerity" in a
radio interview after his German counterpart, Wolfgang Schauble, offered more
flexibility on deficit cutting.

GERMANY: Oskar Lafontaine, German finmin at the time of the euro introduction,
says the currency union should be broken up, so "Southern Europe" can recover,
the Telegraph says. Lafontaine says he still believes in the EMU project, but
says he feels it is no longer sustainable, the paper says.

FRANCE: The FT notes protests in Paris by the far-left against President
Hollande, marking the one-year anniversary of his election, WITH HOLLANDE'S POLL
RATINGS AT A RECORD LOW..


UK PRESS: The latest Grant Thornton survey of business sentiment shows
confidence has risen to the highest level in 18 months, the FT says, as initial
signs of an economic pick up underpins. The ICAEW/Grant Thornton index rose to
16.7, up from 12.8 in the first quarter, with the survey suggesting a pick up in
Q2 GDP growth to +0.6%.

UK PRESS: Overseas buyers continue to boos the London property market, the FT
notes, citing data from Knight Frank. The report suggests that average London
prices are 3% higher YTD, as overseas buyers take the higher Stamp Duty charges
in their stride.

UK PRESS: UK banks have pressed the BoE to speak ou against Europe's planned
FTT, the FT says, outlining it will have a "far greater impact than has so far
been appreciated."

UK PRESS: Fathom Consulting says the UK's latest moves to help reignite the
housing market could lead to a 30% increase in prices over the next 2 1/2 years,
the Times reports. However, Fathom adds that the scheme is "a reckless scheme
that uses public money to incentivise the banks to lend precisely to those
individuals who, absent the scheme, would not and should not be offered credit."

UK PRESS: Norway's oil fund, the world's largest sovereign wealth fund, is
seeking to establish itself as a major real estate player by sharply increasing
its pace of property acquisitions, the FT reports. In the six months to March,
it has increased the pace of growth in its property assets by more than 10-fold
from the same period a year ago. The fund has done a huge array of deals
including a $600m investment in US offices and spending E2.4 bln on European
warehouse and industrial property. It currently has about Nok37.6 bln of
property assets, or 0.9% of the $720 bln fund, up from Nok26.7 bln at the end of
last year, the report says.



CFTC: Speculative accounts trimmed their net euro short position as well as
their net yen short position as of April 30, according to U.S. CFTC data
released late Friday. The CFTC's COT report - non-commercial, futures-only
section, ex-options - showed speculators had a net euro short position of
-30,149 contracts as of Tuesday, compared to last week's net euro short of
-34,275 and the net short of -65,701 contracts seen the week ending April 2,
which was the largest net euro short position since Nov 27. Spec accounts had a
net yen short of -71,127 contracts as per April 30, versus last week's net short
of -79,730 contracts and the net yen short of -93,411 contracts seen the week
ending April 16, which was very close to the yen short of -94,401 contracts from
December 11, which was the largest net yen short position since July 2007. The
record net yen short of -188,077 contracts was seen June 26, 2007. The euro
closed near $1.3168 and dollar-yen at Y97.45 April 30, which compared to closing
levels Friday at $1.3115 and Y99.04


EURO SUMMARY: Euro-dollar pressed to lows of $1.3033 on release of better than
expected Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday. Support in the dip cushioned before
euro-yen demand boosted sentiment, strong equity markets extended gains as the
rate gapped to $1.3159, later easing to close in NY at $1.3115. Risk appetite
continued into early Wellington trade with euro-dollar lifting to $1.3141,
flushing light stops through $1.3130 on the move. Euro-yen sales stalled and the
rate pared light gains to settle in a tight $1.3115-25 Asian range. Traders note
bids seen at $1.3110 with stops building on a break of $1.3100, through here
opens a move towards $1.3080/70 ($1.3076 - 21-day ma). The Asian high seen
capping the topside ($1.3141), offers behind into $1.3150, ahead of key techs at
$1.3160 (100-day ma). Volumes expected light today with the UK holiday as
traders look to release of final April Services PMI data across the eurozone for
direction.

EURO-DOLLAR: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
$1.3243 Wednesday May1 high
$1.3230 Ichimoku daily cloud top
$1.3218 Thursday May2 high (ECB rate cut)
$1.3200 Strong offers, stops
$1.3155/60 Medium offers, stops ($1.3159/60 - 3 May high, 100-dma)
$1.3150 Medium offers
$1.3141 Asia high
$1.3120 ***Current mkt rate 0604GMT Monday
$1.3110/00 Strong demand, stops ($1.3105 - Asia low)
$1.3080 Medium demand ($1.3076 - 21-dma)
$1.3050 Strong demand
$1.3033/27 3 May low, 55-day ma
$1.3025/20 Stops
$1.2995 Tech 40-dma/50% $1.2745-1.3243
$1.2980/77 Strong demand/$1.2972 200-dma


STERLING SUMMARY: Cable tracked euro-dollar moves in NY Friday. The rate
initially pressed to $1.5479 on release of strong Non-Farm Payrolls, before the
pair bounced and extended the recovery to $1.5601. Technical resistance stalled,
profit take sales added weight as the pair closed in NY at $1.5570.
Euro-sterling recovered off pullback lows of stg0.8406 to close at stg0.8425.
Cable opened in Asia on a bid tone and lifted to highs of $1.5599, the rate met
strong supply ahead of $1.5600 easing back with euro-dollar to settle around
$1.5575/85. A break on the topside opens key techs at $1.5607 (50% of
$1.6381-1.4832, 2013 range), stops seen on a break of $1.5610/20, ahead of more
offers at $1.5630. Euro-sterling lifted to initial highs of stg0.8429 before
easing lower with euro crosses to stg0.8419. Support seen on the downside at
stg0.8405 (29 Apr, May 2 low), a break opens stg0.8398 (26 Apr low), ahead of
stg0.8395 (38.2% of stg0.7755-0.8815).

CABLE: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
$1.5700 Strong offers, stops
$1.5688 13 Feb high
$1.5650 Strong offers
$1.5630 Medium offers
$1.5610/20 Stops
$1.5607 50% $1.6381-1.4832 2013 range, NY high May1
$1.5600 Strong offers
$1.5578 **Current market rate 0623GMT Monday
$1.5558/56 Asia low, 5-day ma
$1.5550 Medium demand
$1.5544 100 dma
$1.5520/00 Medium demand
$1.5480 3 May low
$1.5475/65 Medium demand, stops
$1.5450 Medium demand/38.2% $1.5197-1.5607

EURO-STERLING: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
stg0.8500/10 Strong offers, stops (stg0.8501 - 21-dma)
stg0.8498 Wednesday May1 high
stg0.8480/85 Medium offers/stg0.8482 Thu May2 high
stg0.8470 100-dma
stg0.8450 Medium offers
stg0.8440 5-dma
stg0.8430 Asia high
stg0.8418 ***Current market rate 0635GMT Monday
stg0.8405 Thursday May2, Apr29 low
stg0.8398 Friday Apr26 low
stg0.8395 Tech 38.2% stg0.7755-stg0.8815
stg0.8390 Stops
stg0.8370/65 Medium demand (stg0.8364 - 22 Jan low)
stg0.8350 Strong demand, stops


YEN SUMMARY: Dollar-yen spiked from Y97.95 to Y99.06 on release of stronger than
expected Non-Farm Payrolls Friday, which came in above market consensus at
165,000 vs 145,000. Strong cross demand extended gains to Y99.27 before supply
from sovereign names stalled, briefly taking the rate back under Y99.00. Tight
range trade continued as the dollar consolidated gains, closing in NY at Y99.05.
Euro-yen printed highs of Y130.34, before easing with the dollar to close at
Y129.90. Dollar-yen gapped higher on the Asian open to Y99.21 as Asian markets
reacted with relief to Sunday's election outcome in Malaysia. Supply from
corporate names pared light gains and with Japanese markets closed today the
rate settled in a narrow Y99.05/10 range. On the topside decent offers building
into Y99.20, a break opens Y99.27 (Post NFP spike high), ahead of strong offers
into Y99.50 with stops set. Euro-yen lifted to highs of Y130.27 before it too
pared gains slipping in tandem with the dollar to consolidate above Y130.00.
Strong offers reported at Y130.50 with stops set, a break opens a move towards
Y130.70 (22 Apr high).


OPTIONS: FX: Option expiries for today's 1000ET cut,
* Euro-dollar; $1.2935, $1.2950, $1.3100, $1.3195, $1.3200
* Dollar-yen; Y98.00, Y98.50, Y98.80
* Aussie; $1.0200, $1.0250, $1.0330, $1.0350
* Euro-sterling; stg0.8500
* Euro-swiss; Chf1.2175, Chf1.2250
* Kiwi-dollar; Nz$0.8500


EUROZONE ISSUANCE: Sovereign bond issuance in the eurozone this week is
scheduled from Austria, Germany and Spain - and is expected to total around
E11.82bln vs E17.7bln sold last week. Austria kicks off issuance on Tuesday with
a tap of its 10-year benchmark 1.75% Oct 2023 RAGB and also 1.95% June 2019 RAGB
issue for combined size of E1.32bln. On Tuesday, Germany re-opens its 10-year
linker benchmark 0.10% Apr 2023 Bundei for up to E1.0bln. On Wednesday, Germany
sells a new 5-year benchmark Apr 2018 Bobl issue for up to E5.0bln. On Thursday,
Spain comes to the market with tap of its 3-year benchmark 3.30% July 2016 Bono,
5-year benchmark 4.50% Jan 2018 Bono and possibly its 15-year benchmark 5.90%
July 2026 for an expected size of up to E4.5bln. The Tesoro is due to announce
size details on Monday. In terms of reinvestment flows, there are no redemption
payments and small coupon payments from Italy E0.1bln -- turns net cash flow
negative to the tune of E11.8bln vs E32.8bln last week.

EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: As far as T-bill issuance in the eurozone is concerned
for this week France, Greece, Italy, the ESM and the Netherlands come to the
market -- supply is estimated to be around E21.0bln, up from E12.467bln issued
last week. First up on Monday will be the Netherlands, where the DSTA plans to
tap 3-month DTC, maturing Jul 31, 2013 for between E1.0-E2.0bln and issue new
6-month DTC, maturing Nov 29, 2013 for between E1.0-E2.0bln. In the afternoon
France plan to tap 3-month BTF, maturing Aug 1 for between E3.6-E4.0bln, issue
new 6-month BTF, maturing Oct 31 for between E1.8-E2.2bln and tap 12-month BTF,
maturing Apr 30, 2014 for between E1.6-E2.0bln. On Tuesday, Greece plan to issue
new 26-week Nov 8, 2013 T-bill for E1.0bln and the ESM plan to issue new 3-month
Aug 11, 2013 Bill for up to E3.0bln. Finally on Friday Italy plans to issue new
12-month May 14, 2014 BOT, with confirmation and sized announced on Tuesday.
T-bill redemptions for this week includes France E7.99bln, Greece E1.6bln, and
ESM E1.949bln giving potential negative net cash flow of E9.5bln.

DUTCH T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: The Dutch State Treasury Agency (DSTA), re-opens
3-month Jul 31 DTC for between E1.0-E2.0bln, and issue new 6-month Nov 29 DTC
for between E1.0-E2.0bln on Monday. This will be the second of two taps of Jul
31 DTC and with only E2.49bln currently outstanding demand could be very high.
Current 3-month DTC mid-yield is seen trading below zero percent at between
-0.030% and -0.035% and was last sold on Apr 15, were E1.46bln was allotted at
an average yield -0.027% and cover of 2.55 times. As for the new 6-month Nov 29
DTC, this is scheduled to be tapped again on May 21 so demand might be on the
low side. There is currently no grey market for the new 6-month DTC, but the old
Oct 31 DTC mid-yield is seen trading around -0.015%. At the last 6-month DTC
auction, also back on Apr 15, E1.37bln was allotted at average yield of -0.011%
and cover of 2.31 times. With no Dutch T-bill redemption this week, cash flow
could be negative to the tune of E4.0bln. Results due to be announced around
0940GMT.

FRANCE T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: France's Agence France Tresor (AFT) plan to tap
new 3-month Aug 1, 2013 BTF for between E3.6-E4.0bln, issue new 6-month Oct 31,
2013 BTF for between E1.8-E2.2bln, and tap 12-month Apr 30, 2014 BTF for between
E1.6-E2.0bln on Monday. The BTF yield curve has continued to bull flatten in
wake of ECB refi rate cut and talk of negative deposit rates, and seen
supporting demand. There will be a BTF redemption next week of E7.99bln, leaving
net cash flow negative to the tune of E201mln. For comparison on Apr 29, the AFT
sold E4.001bln 3-month BTF at an average yield of -0.002% with cover of 2.5
times, E1.996bln 6-month BTF at an average yield of 0.008% with cover of 3.83
times, and E1.83bln 12-month BTF at an average yield of 0.029% with cover of
3.17 times. Results due to be announced around 1255GMT.

EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- May 06 ECB Draghi speaks at LUISS Guido Carli in Rome
- May 06 European final Apr PMI services survey
- May 06 Spain Apr unemployment data
- May 06 German FinMin Schaeuble speaks at Hamburg business club
- May 07 EMAC debate financial assistance to Cyprus with Eurogroup Dijsselbloem
- May 07 ESM plan to issue new 3-month Bill for up to E3.0bln
- May 08 ECB start of reserve maintenance period
- May 08 Italian Apr Target2 data and central bank lending figures
- May 09 ECB Draghi & Asmussen to attend pre-G7 in Buckinghamshire, UK
- May 09 Spain bond auction
- May 09 ECB quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters
- May 09 Ascension day holiday
- May 10/11 G7 meeting in in Buckinghamshire, UK
- May 10/11 G8 FinMin & central bank governors meeting in the U.K
- May 10 ECB publishes 3-year LTRO repayment amount for following week

US: US: Timeline of some upcoming key events in the US:
- May 06 UST announces 4wk at 1100ET
- May 06 UST auctions 3/6m bills at 1130ET
- May 06 Outright Tsy Cpn Purch May 15 2020-Feb 15 2023 $2.75-$3.50B
- May 07 Pres Obama meets S. Korea Pres Park Geun-hye
- May 07 Tsy Cpn Purchases Feb 15 2036-Feb 15 2043 $1.25-$1.75B
- May 07 UST auctions 4wk at 1130ET
- May 07 UST auctions $32Bn 3y in May refunding at 1300ET
- May 07 Tsy Lew at City Club in Cleveland at 1630ET
- May 07 Apr Treasury Allotments
- May 08 Fed Gov Stein at Chicago Fed conf at 0930ET
- May 08 FHLBanks to announce Global issuance
- May 08 UST auctions $24Bn 10y at 1300ET
- May 09 Fed Lacker (non-voter) on TBTF in NY at 0800ET
- May 09 TIPS Purch July 15 2017-Feb 15 2043 $1.00-$1.50B
- May 09 UST auctions $16Bn 30y at 1300ET

[richard.cali]

Forex to taki sam rynek jak gielda warzyw (tylko produkty sa inne) a wasze wypowiedzi brzmia tak niedorzecznie jak: "zastanawiam sie, czy producenci pomidorow podciagna cene zeby przetestowac opor". Ogorki robia potrojny szczyt, grubasy ogorkowe podciagna jeszcze rynek o 20 zl a pozniej wyprzedaz magazynow. Nikt o takich glupotach nie mysli a rynek nie dziala wedlug analizy technicznej. Mylicie przyczyne ze skutkiem.

Przepraszam, że przerwę, ale czy jest może na sali jakiś doktor?

[kosmowariat]

mówię o poziomach 1,5596 na kablu i 1,3138 na edku w nocnej sesji

Moim zdaniem, bez znaczenia. Co prawda 1,3138 jest w okolicach istotnego poziomu, ale to niedzielna noc, mała płynność. Moim zdaniem lepiej poczekać przynajmniej na pierwsze makro...

@richard.cali - http://forex-nawigator.biz/forum/daytra ... ml#p581850

[Nowy123]

09:13 EUR Wskaźnik Services PMI w Hiszpanii 44,4 45,6

pod EDKA


U J - raczej nie obejdzie sie bez testu strefy podazy 99 60 - 99 80 jesli by EUR USD nie dusilo Ejka to na E J podobnie test 131

[richard.cali]

mówię o poziomach 1,5596 na kablu i 1,3138 na edku w nocnej sesji

Moim zdaniem, bez znaczenia. Co prawda 1,3138 jest w okolicach istotnego poziomu, ale to niedzielna noc, mała płynność. Moim zdaniem lepiej poczekać przynajmniej na pierwsze makro...

@richard.cali - http://forex-nawigator.biz/forum/daytra ... ml#p581850

Jeśli ten wątek ma czemu służyć to przynajmniej nie wpisujcie po 40-50 postów dziennie, które nic nie wnaszą i są bez wykresu, lepiej nie pisać nic,
gratuluje, bo skutecznie odstraszono tutaj wszystkie osoby, które cokolwiek wnosiły, a były takie, tylko, że teraz tylko czytają i mdli je pewnie...pozostał właściwie tylko Niemieszek (muszę to przyznać niestety), który i tak postuje coraz mniej.
Także więc dna nie widać jak na razie...
Tak widzę E/U H4 na dziś

[rafmax]

Widze ze nawet bana zaliczyłem. No coz pewnie sie nalezal, co nie zmienia faktu ze i tak zegnam sie z tym forum, może zima znowu wroce jak bedzie mi sie nudzic, może czasem poczytam biernie . Przepraszam wszystkich za bezsensowne posty-sprzeczki ktore nie powinny miec miejsca.

POWODZENIA.

[psxor]

Ja podobnie jak kolega wyżej, powodzonka