DayTrading: Piątek 14.12.2012

[pkubiu]

To jest taka gra kto wytrzyma:D Nawet jesli trwale przebije 1,31 to kilkanascie pipsow wyzej uformuje sie podwojny szczyt i kierunek jasny.

na poziomie 1.3120? bo mam tam 3 S

[fajnynick21]

Podwójny bedzie jak dojdzie w okolice 1.3120 na interwale h4 wyjda 2ie takie górki:D:D:D

Dobra weż warzywniak się od tego. Zauwazylem na tym forum ze jest cos takiego ze jeden ma taka analize drugi taka.Jednemu sie sprawdzi drugiemu nie to ten pierwszy ma beke z tego pierwszego ze stracil pieniadze Co za żal jak tak bedzie to niedlugo nikt nie bedzie tutaj pisał z obawy przed wypianiem ze jego scenario sie nie sprawdzi.

[Mpapiez]

@Up

Nie chce was martwić, ale warzywniak ma rację.

Z technicznego punktu widzenia, nie ma zadnych podstaw do ładowania się teraz w Eski.

Najbliżej to ~1.3120 jest możliwe miejsce, ale imo to jedynie na korektę pod 1.3100. To jest (była) bardzo silna bariera, która jest teraz wsparciem - a sprzedawanie prosto we wsparcie to nigdy dobre nie jest i raczej więcej wskazuje na szczęście niż umiejętności.

[pr7emo]

Fitch affirms France at ‘AAA’; outlook negative
Fri, Dec 14 2012, 07:06 GMT | Forex Live

okej, czyli gorzej być już nie może, wczoraj GB też potwierdzili AAA

[szamantg]

No nic, rzeczywiście S-ki nie wyszły zbyt dobrze, ale na szczęście zlecenie sobie na L-kę ustawiłem na noc na wszelki wypadek, to strata nie jest taka duża. Na chwilę obecną otwarte L do 1.312, ktoś ma podobnie?

Albo mi się wydaje, albo się prognozy pozmieniały na dzień dzisiejszy dla EUR? Wczoraj wyglądało to zdecydowanie gorzej, a dzisiaj prognozują wszystko na plus.

[sureshot]

dojechalismy znowu do sciany sam jestem ciekaw 1.313, czy jeszcze dzis przejada czy nie

[expedient warzywniaka]

żeby rozmowa miała sens to musicie sobie ustalić interwał o jakim rozmawiacie, bo na pewno będą dzisiaj spadki i wzrosty ogólnie mówiąc.

Masz rację. Ja mówię w perspektywnie skalperskiej ostatnimi czasy. W sensie co się stanie w niedługo po napisaniu postu.

No nic, rzeczywiście S-ki nie wyszły zbyt dobrze, ale na szczęście zlecenie sobie na L-kę ustawiłem na noc na wszelki wypadek, to strata nie jest taka duża. Na chwilę obecną otwarte L do 1.312, ktoś ma podobnie?

Grasz bez SL ?Pewnie mam identyczne targety.

[zeuss]

[Kondek]

Kurde moja S -233,15 zł. Nie ładnie.

[niemiaszek]

Hello



EUROPE: The week draws to a close with a full calendar Friday, with the
flash PMI indicators likely to be the stand out features. Ahead of those
releases, the ACEA November new car registration data and the UK John
Lewis weekly store sales data are released at 0700GMT. There is also
French data scheduled for release, with the November Bank of France
survey due at 0730GMT and French third quarter employment data due at
0745GMT. The main December flash services and manufacturing PMI releases
are expected from 0758GMT, when the French numbers cross the wires.
German PMI is expected from 0828GMT and the combined eurozone data at
0858GMT. In between, at 0830GMT, Germany's upper house of parliament is
set to vote on the 2013 budget bill. Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble
will likely speak. At 0900GMT,ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny
and ECB Vice-President Vitor Constancio present the Financial Stability
Review, in Vienna and Frankfurt respectively. at 1000GMT, EMU November
final HICP data and EMU Q3 employment numbers will be released.

EUROPE: The FT says the latest EU Leaders Summit has again ducked the
major issues set out for it. The paper says although some small steps
have been taken on forwarding bank regulation, plans for stronger fiscal
union amongst the eurozone 17 has been delayed until June at the
earliest and possibly longer.

FRANCE: Fitch Ratings said "in line with previous guidance, the
Negative Outlook is expected to be resolved during 2013 and indicates a
slightly greater than 50% chance of a downgrade". The resolution of the
Negative Outlook through an affirmation of France's AAA' rating or a
rating downgrade will be determined by assessment of following factors:
- The pace and ambition of economic reform.
- An assessment of France's m-t growth outlook in light of headwinds
from eurozone crisis, progress & prospects for economic reform.
- The likelihood that the government will meet its deficit and debt
targets and implement structural fiscal measures that provide confidence
that public debt will be on firm downward path from 2014.
- The fiscal and economic risks associated with the eurozone debt
crisis. An intensification of the crisis would place additional pressure
on France's sovereign ratings.





EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY at $1.3077 after rate saw another reversal off
$1.3100, with rate recovering off a NY afternoon pullback low of
$1.3060. A slow start in Asia with early sales eventually able to
squeeze rate down to $1.3067 before rate picked up fresh demand which
took it on to $1.3095. Move toward $1.3100 again met decent supply, with
rate easing back to $1.3082 before building demand for another run
higher. Rate managed to extend highs to $1.3100 but supply here halted
the move with rate easing back under $1.3090 at writing. Should rate
break and clear above $1.3100 it should expose the recent high at
$1.3127, with traders noting that offers are seen placed around this
level from $1.3110 through to $1.3130. Support remains back at $1.3060,
stronger into $1.3040. Flash releases of major Eurozone PMI's the
morning's interest, with Eurozone inflation and employment data also of
note, though the latter two not seen as a market mover. Decent volumes
have been reported though rate activity not reflecting. Sovereign demand
from various directions provides the underlying upside drive.


CABLE: Closed in NY $1.6112 after rate had been pressed to lows in this
session of $1.6085 as market reacted to S&P putting the UK outlook to
negative from stable (catching up on Moody's and Fitch). Early Asian
trade saw rate trade between $1.6110/15, marked lows at $1.6105 before
attracting fresh buying that took rate to an initial high at $1.6123. A
brief dip back to $1.6114 before rate edged on to session highs at
$1.6142, holding firm into early Europe. Offers seen in place to
$1.6150/55 ($1.6151 76.4% $1.6172-1.6085/$1.6154 Thursday high), a break
to open a move back to $1.6170/80 ($1.6172 Dec12). Support remains in
place between $1.6115/00, a break to open a deeper move back toward
$1./6085/80. Euro-sterling saw an extended recovery high of stg0.81205
after the S&P move, eased off to stg0.80125 in early Asia before
nudging higher again, able to make a show above resistance at
stg0.8120 but so far struggling to build. A clear above stg0.8120 to
expose recent highs at stg0.8147. A light domestic calendar will have
sterling taking direction from Eurozone and US developments.


YEN: Yen continued to trade with an underlying soft tone through Asia,
with dollar-yen able to extend its recovery off Thursday pullback lows
of Y83.25, with the break above the Y83.75/85 area clearing out barrier
interest and tripping stops, to take rate on to Y83.96. Japanese demand
at the Tokyo fix provided the main upside drive, but decent supply ahead
of the next barrier at Y84.00 proved strong enough to counter and allow
rate to ease back to Y83.75 into early Europe. The recovery in
euro-dollar and the soft yen allowed euro-yen to extend recent gains to
Y109.98, just missing out on challenging the Y110.00 level with reported
option linked offers ahead of a barrier here able to counter. This rate
trades back around Y109.70 into Europe. Offers have been reported
between Y110.00/200 , a break to open a move toward Y110.50/65.
Elections in Japan on Sunday with forecasts suggesting the LDP may draw
enough votes to form a government on their own. LDP Abe comments of late
about the BOJ and the level of the yen seen adding to the negative yen
weight.

DOLLAR-YEN: Traders confirm barrier interest at Y84.00, adding that
further structures in place at Y84.25 and Y84.50. Should the Y84.00
barrier give way reports suggest a move above to meet sell interest
placed to Y84.20. Main upside stops seen in place above the Y84.50
level. Rate currently trades around Y83.75 after pulling back from
earlier highs at Y83.96.

JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japan's benchmark stock indices ended Friday's
narrowly mixed. The Nikkei 225 was lower by 5.17 points, or 0.05%, at
9737.56. Just ahead of the close, the broader-based TOPIX was higher by
2.40 points at 801.61. Preliminary volume in the Nikkei stocks totalled
2.415 Bn shares, with 122 issues higher, 83 lower and 20 unchanged.


GOLD: Spot gold prices are trading marginally higher Friday after
posting some sharp losses during the previous day. Spot gold ended
Thursday's session $14.70 lower at $1696.95/oz after some position
liquidation by funds to lock in some year end profit saw the precious
metal under pressure for much of the session. Prices did, however, hold
support just below $1690/oz before recovering some ground ahead of the
US equity opening. Thinning liquidity before the year end continues to
contribute to a lack of momentum in the market. Gold prices have been
tied to a narrow range so far this morning, edging their way back from
an initial low of $1694.30/oz to highs of $1700.45/oz and now trade at
$1698.70/oz, up $1.75 on the session. Metals brokers report no flows of
any significance so far.


OIL: January NYMEX WTI futures are trading higher Friday after losing
nearly a dollar during the previous day. NYMEX January light sweet crude
oil futures settled down $0.88 at $85.89 per barrel, after trading in a
$85.81 to $86.97 range. Prices became subject to selling pressure as
risk assets spent much of the session on the back foot as debt woes in
the US and the UK saw a moderate corrective pullback in risk. WTI prices
have edged their way back higher during Asian hours this morning,
recovering most of Thursday's losses, after the Chinese HSBC flash
purchasing managers' index (PMI) for December rose to a reading of 50.9,
a 14-month high, beating market expectations of an estimate of a 50.8
reading. WTI futures have drawn some support from the brighter outlook
for the Chinese manufacturing sector, advancing from lows of $86.07 a
barrel to print an intra-day high of $86.64 a few moments ago, amid a
moderate pick up in risk sentiment present in Asian trade this morning.
January WTI futures now trade at $86.63 a barrel, up 74 cents on the
session.


NATURAL GAS: NYMEX January natural gas prices are trading lower Friday
extending their declines from the previous day. January natural gas
futures ended Thursday's session down 3.5 cents, or 1%, at $3.347 per
million British thermal units (mln Btu) after sliding to a two and a
half month low of $3.293 per mln Btu after the release of the EIA
inventory report, which showed that total domestic gas inventories for
the week ended December 7 rose by 2bln cubic feet (c/f) to $3.806
trillion c/f, an unusual build for so late in the season. Market
expectations were for a withdrawal of 4bln c/f. Natural gas futures did
initially recover some of their losses after the release of the report,
but the recovery was short-lived. January natural gas futures have
extended their declines during Asian trade this morning, edging lower
from an initial intra-day high of $3.361 to print a low of $3.328 and
prices remain at the lower end of the range, now trading $3.335 per mln
Btu.


FX: Option expiries for today's 1000EST cut,
* Euro-dollar; $1.3080, $1.3060, $1.3050, $1.3000, $1.2950
* Dollar-yen; Y83.75(large), Y83.50(large), Y83.10, Y82.95, Y82.75
* Cable; $1.6115, $1.6160
* Dollar-Swiss; Chf0.9350
* Aussie; $1.0490, $1.0500, $1.0550, $1.0600
* Kiwi; $0.8400


EUROZONE ISSUANCE: There is no sovereign bond issuance scheduled
Friday after Belgium cancelled its ORI auction. Issuance has now been
completed this week and totals E7.52bln vs E12.2bln last week. As a
recap, Slovakia kicked off supply on Monday with tap of the 4.35% 2025
SLOVGB216 issue on Monday for E76.3mln. On Tuesday, the Austrian Federal
Financing Agency (AFFA) tapped its 7-year benchmark 1.95% June 2019 RAGB
and 10-year benchmark 3.40% Nov 2022 RAGB issues for E1.1bln combined
size. On Thursday, Spain taps its 3.75% Oct 2015 Bono, 5.50% July 2017
Obligaciones and 4.90% July 2040 Obligaciones issues for E2.02bln
combined size. Also on Thursday, Italy sold a new 3-year benchmark 2.75%
Dec 2015 BTP for E3.495bln and also tap its 15-year benchmark 4.50% Mar
2026 BTP for E729mln. In terms of reinvestment flows, redemption
payments from Germany E17.0bln and Italy E18.69bln, and coupon payment
from Italy E1.4bln and Germany E0.2bln -- turns net cash flow positive
to the tune of E29.8bln vs -E12.0bln last week. For full details of
forthcoming issues, please see Eurozone bond auction calendar.


EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- Dec 13/14 EU Leaders Summit
- Dec 13/14 IMF and ECB hold joint conference on fiscal governance
- Dec 14 Germany upper house to vote on German 2013 budget bill
- Dec 14 EMU Dec flash manufacturing/services PMI data
- Dec 14 ECB publishes Financial Stability Review
- Dec 14 Greece T-bill redemption for E2.0bln
- Dec 14 Italy T-bill redemption for E10.7bln
- Dec 14 Spain T-bill redemption for E8.927bln
- Dec 15 Italy BTP bond redemption for E18.686bln
- Dec 17 ECB Draghi to appear before European Parliament
- Dec 17 Ireland T-bill redemption for E500mln
- Dec 18 Spain sells 3-/6-month T-bills
- Dec 18 Greek bond buyback settlement date
- Dec 20 ESRB meeting
- Dec 20 Italy T-bill redemption for E3.5bln