04-Jul-2014 11:51
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Decline Exposes $1.3579-$1.3550 Support
*RES 4: $1.3748 50% Fibo of $1.3989-$1.3507
*RES 3: $1.3697 Jun 30 high
*RES 2: $1.3677 Jul 1 low, now resistance
*RES 1: $1.3640/45 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.3590 @0947GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3579 Jun 26 low
*SUP 2: $1.3550 Congestion early-mid June
*SUP 3: $1.3533 8 month channel base
*SUP 4: $1.3507 Jun 5 low
*COMMENTARY* Pullback from the top of the 3 week channel breaks below key near
term support at $1.3610-20. This now leaves the downside exposed to a further
$1.3579-$1.3550 fall, with the 8 month rising channel base at $1.3533 today. In
the interim, resistance comes from $1.3640-45 initially and then from some
congestion around the Jul 1 low at $1.3677. Need a move back above here to
reduce downside risk caused by Thursday's sharp decline.
04-Jul-2014 11:52
CABLE TECHS: $1.7181-$1.7186 The Important Resistance Area Today
*RES 4: $1.7248 1% volatility band
*RES 3: $1.7213 1.618 swing of $1.7175-$1.7113
*RES 2: $1.7186 15 week channel top
*RES 1: $1.7181 1.618 swing of $1.6996-$1.6696
*PRICE: $1.7147 @0949GMT
*SUP 1: $1.7130 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.7113 Jul 3 low
*SUP 3: $1.7098 Jul 1 low, 3 week rising support line
*SUP 4: $1.7061 Jun 19 high, now support
*COMMENTARY: Key resistance has moved by time today, to the slightly higher
$1.7181-$1.7186 area. Some overbought hourly conditions already evident
following the recovery from Thursday's $1.7113 low. While capped here, then look
to $1.7130-$1.7113 for initial support but the really important level is at
$1.7098. This where the Jul 1 low has been joined by the 3 week rising support
line today. Lose here and we likely correct gains from the June low at $1.6696.
04-Jul-2014 11:53
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y101.85-95 Now Becomes Near Term Support Area
*RES 4: Y103.00 May 2 high
*RES 3: Y102.79 Jun 4 high, 2014 falling res line
*RES 2: Y102.50 Jun 10 high
*RES 1: Y102.26/30 Jul 3 & Jun 18 highs
*PRICE: Y102.05 @0950GMT
*SUP 1: Y101.75/85 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Y101.50 Hourly congestion area
*SUP 3: Y101.25 Jun 30 low
*SUP 4: Y101.18 1.618 swing of Y101.61-Y102.30
*COMMENTARY: Following the break above Y101.85-95 on Thursday, it would be nice
to see the same area support any pullbacks today. That said, probably have to
allow a Y101.75 overshoot, before thoughts turn to near term pivotal support
around Y101.50. Lose here and recovery in trouble. Directly above Y102.30 and
rally can continue toward Y102.50-Y102.79. The latter doubly important today, as
it also represents the 2014 falling resistance line.
04-Jul-2014 11:53
EURO-YEN TECHS: Some Indecision Apparent After Thursday's Gains
*RES 4: Y140.24 4 month descending channel top
*RES 3: Y140.00/09 Mar 28 low, Jun 9 high
*RES 2: Y139.51/53 76.4% Fibo of Y140.09-Y137.72
*RES 1: Y139.27 Jul 3 high
*PRICE: Y138.69 @0952GMT
*SUP 1: Y138.55/65 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Y138.00/10 Jun 27 low, 3 week support line
*SUP 3: Y137.94 Jun 26 low
*SUP 4: Y137.72 Jun 16 low
*COMMENTARY: A bit of rash enthusiasm took us slightly above the 61.8% Fibo
retracement and 3 week channel top at Y139.18 yesterday. The lower close has
left us with a 'spinning top' candle on the daily chart. This represents
indecision, so keep an eye on Y138.55-65 support, as loss will weaken immediate
upside argument and point to a test of Y138.00-10 support. Directly above
Y139.27 will ease fears and leave Y139.51-53 as next barrier to surmount.
04-Jul-2014 11:54
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Stg0.7915 Steps Up To The Plate As Next Support
*RES 4: Stg0.8033 Jun 25 high
*RES 3: Stg0.8007 Jul 1 high
*RES 2: Stg0.7985/90 Hourly resistance
*RES 1: Stg0.7960 Jun 16 low, now resistance
*PRICE: Stg0.7927 @0953GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.7915 1.618 swing of Stg0.7960-Stg0.8033
*SUP 2: Stg0.7903 1% volatility band
*SUP 3: Stg0.7888 11 month channel base projection
*SUP 4: Stg0.7870 5 week channel base projection
*COMMENTARY: The loss of Stg0.7960 support has seen a downside extension towards
the next support of note, from the 1.618 swing target at Stg0.7915. Some
oversold hourly conditions are now apparent, so this may allow room for some
recovery back towards Stg0.7960. Need to clear here however, before any higher
correction can be calculated. Below Stg0.7915 and Stg0.7888-Stg0.7870 next, as
we beat a path back toward the July 2012 low at Stg0.7757.
04-Jul-2014 11:55
GOLD TECHS: Still In Consolidation Mode Above $1310.8 Support
*RES 4: $1340.6 1.618 projection target from $1259.9
*RES 3: $1337.4 1.618 swing of $1325.7-$1306.7
*RES 2: $1334.3 61.8% Fibo of $1391.8-$1241.3
*RES 1: $1331.7 Jul 1, Jul 2 highs
*PRICE: $1321.2 @0954GMT
*SUP 1: $1310.8 Jun 30 low
*SUP 2: $1306.7 Jun 26 base
*SUP 3: $1297.2 Previous congestion area
*SUP 4: $1284.6 Jun 16 high, now support
*COMMENTARY: A high of $1331.7 so far, as we continue to falter below the 61.8%
Fibo retracement level at $1334.3. Can allow for a $1310.8 pullback as part of
this consolidation but any lower and recent upside momentum becomes damaged.
This would open the way for a deeper correction of gains seen since the $1241.3
low in early June, with $1297.2 the early attraction. Above $1334.3 and upside
interest is renewed for a further $1337.4-$1356.3 rise.
