1. W wątku DT omawiamy bieżąca sytuacje na rynku i to co dotyczy danego dnia. Od dłuższych prognoz jest dział Prognozy, komentarze, analizy
2. Zamieszczamy tylko i wyłącznie swoje analizy. Nie kopiujemy z innych serwisów.
3. Komentarz do własnej analizy nie może mieć charakteru rekomendacji. (to nie jest dział z sygnałami)
4. Kłótnie, ataki na innych użytkowników są niedopuszczalne.
5. Nie zaśmiecamy wątku. (wypowiedzi w stylu: "dałem S", "ja kończę na dziś" itp. jak i chwalenie się swoimi statami)
Nagminne łamanie powyższych zasad będzie skutkować nałozeniem zakazu pisania do końca bieżącego tygodnia.
Recydywa będzie karana ostrzeżeniami.
Przypominam że ponadto obowiązuje Regulamin Forum
Przedstawione poglądy, oceny, opinie i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów
autorów i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji do nabycia lub zbycia albo
powstrzymania się od dokonania transakcji w odniesieniu do jakichkolwiek walut.
Poglądy te jak i inne treści nie stanowią "rekomendacji" lub "doradztwa"
w rozumieniu ustawy z dnia 29 lipca 2005 o obrocie instrumentami finansowymi.
Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte lub zaniechane
na podstawie poniższych analiz ponosi inwestor.
31 grudnia USA osiągną ustawowy limit zadłużenia
26.12.12 22:34
Na koniec grudnia USA osiągną ustawowy limit zadłużenia na poziomie 16,4 bln USD, poinformował w środę sekretarz skarbu USA Timothy Geithner w liście skierowanym do liderów Izby Reprezentantów i Senatu.
W sierpniu 2011 roku Kongres zdecydował o zwiększeniu limitu zadłużenia o 2,1 bln USD z wcześniejszych 14,294 mld USD.
Jednak to mniej prawdopodobna wersja jak dla mnie. Wzrosty na edku rozpoczęły się przy gorszych fundamentach...
Ostatnio zmieniony 27 gru 2012, 01:06 przez ForexTig3r, łącznie zmieniany 1 raz.
Przedstawione, poglądy, oceny i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów autora i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji. Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte i z wykorzystaniem wniosków w nich zawartych, ponosi inwestor. subsilver2趋势线
Przedstawione, poglądy, oceny i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów autora i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji. Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte i z wykorzystaniem wniosków w nich zawartych, ponosi inwestor. subsilver2趋势线
113,66 161 fibo i gorna banda na d1 tez tam sie schodzi doceolowo MA200 na W1 okolo 115 lecz przed nimi mocna strefa oporowa http://stooq.pl/q/?s=eurjpy
113 50/65 oporowo maja bez e/u pomocy tak z miejsc nie przejda braklo troszke ehh i TP i S do wziecia na obrot ale i tak od 1 :00 zrobili prwie 50 pisowy ruch
-- Dodano: czw 27-12-2012, 2:28 --
http://stooq.pl/q/?s=^nkx&c=1y&t=c&a=lg&b=1 skosne pompuja NIkk strasznie co by sie nie skonczylo to niespodziewanka jak czytalem t oduzee oczkiwania maja co do tego nowego programu by drukowac i wywowlac inflacje
EUROPE: European data releases remain thin, although France leads the limited
calendar, starting at 0745GMT today with PPI, Maastricht Debt data and the
consumer confidence survey for December. Spain also releases PPI, at 0800GMT,
while the Italian ISTAT business survey is due at 0900GMT. In European issuance
Thursday, Italy's Dipartimento del Tesoro taps its 2-year zero coupon Sep 2014
CTZ bond for between E2.5bln to E3.25bln indicative size. France data also
includes registered jobseekers data at 1700GMT. US data then concludes at
2130GMT, with weekly M2 Money Supply data.
EUROPE: The WSJ talks about how Mario Draghi used monetary policy well in 2012,
but casts doubt over how the situation could be repeated in 2013, noting in
particular the challenge from a growing jobless rate in the euro zone, currently
at 11.7% but seen rising towards 13%, according to the article.
ITALY: The FT focuses on how Mario Monti meets with prospective coalition
partners today, warning the current process "could lead to an even more
fragmented parliament than had been expected."
SPAIN: The Times writes on Thursday how Spain may take centre stage in 2013 in
the battle to save the euro. The article says "Madrid has estimated that it will
need to borrow E207 billion, or 20% of GDP."
UK DATA: UK data at 0930GMT sees BBA Lending Data, including Mortgage Approvals.
UK PRESS: The UK telegraph reports on a positive outlook for UK Boxing Day
sales, quoting department stores Selfridges and John Lewis reporting record
figures for early Boxing Day sales, as well as figures from analysts
Springboard, saying shoppers on the High Street surged by 50% in Northampton and
Cambridge compared with last year. The same report cited a 20% increase across
the UK.
US: US data starts at 1330GMT when the level of initial jobless claims is
expected to rise 4,000 to 365,000 in the December 22 pre-Christmas week. The
Bloomberg Comfort Index is due at 1445GMT, while at 1500GMT, New Home Sales are
expected to rise to a 380,000 annual rate in November after dipping in October.
Hurricane Sandy had only a minimal impact in October according to the Commerce
Department, due to how late the storm hit in the month. A larger impact may be
seen in the November data. Also at 1500GMT, the Conference Board's index of
consumer confidence is expected to fall to 70.2 in December after rising in
November. Concerns about the fiscal cliff and the recent tragic events may have
impacted consumers. The Michigan Sentiment index fell sharply in December. US
data then concludes at 2130GMT, with weekly M2 Money Supply data.
EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY Wednesday at $1.3226 (European markets returning today
the close Monday was $1.3183), after easing off an extended recovery high if
$1.3254. Rate established an early base around $1.3220 in early Asian dealing
before edging up to $1.3246 on the back of euro-yen demand (cited for
Wednesday's spike higher in thin markets). The rally met US name supply which
allowed it to ease back to $1.3224. Another brief rally to $1.3238 quickly
faltered before rate again found support back at $1.3224. Rate was trading
around $1.3225/30 into Europe's return from their Christmas holiday break.
Support remains at $1.3225/15, a break of $1.3210 to open a deeper pullback
toward $1.3180/70. Resistance remains at $1.3250/60, a break here exposes
$1.3280 ahead of stronger interest between $1.3295/1.3310. Continued demand for
euro-yen expected to provide buoyancy, Abe the new Japanese PM has voiced that
he wants to weaken the yen, while developments in the US 'Fiscal Cliff'
negotiations bubble away into year end.
EURO-DOLLAR: Extends recovery to $1.3250 with rate holding firm, though upside
progress proving laboured. Offers have been reported to $1.3255, covering
Wednesday's high at $1.3254, with stops noted on a break of $1.3255/60. Through
here and rate can edge on toward $1.3280.
MNI EURO-DOLLAR: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals) $1.3400 Barrier
$1.3350 Barrier/Stops
$1.3340 Options; Large OT set to roll off Dec31
$1.3320 Stops
$1.3295/310 Strong offers/Area recent highs Thurs-Weds($1.3208)
$1.3280 Minor offers
$1.3245/55 Medium offers/$1.3254 Wednesday Dec26 high/$1.3260 Stops
$1.3246 Int.Day high Asia
$1.3244 ***Current mkt rate 0702GMT Thursday $1.3225/15 Medium demand/$1.3219 Int.Day low Asia
$1.3210 Stops
$1.3200 Minor demand
$1.3185/80 Medium demand $1.3170 Strong demand
$1.3159 Friday Dec21 low/Bids $1.3160/50/$1.3140 Stops
CABLE: Closed in NY Wednesday at $1.6141, having pulled back from session highs
at $1.6171 and was seen recovering off pullback lows of $1.6109 into the close
(rate closed Dec24 at $1.6121 after recovering off a low in that session of
$1.6101). Rate continued its recovery into early Asia, edging to $1.6140 (50%
$1.6171-09) before easing back and finding a base at $1.6125. Cable settled
between $1.6130/40 for most of the overnight session, dipping to $1.6127 ahead
of the European open before edging back to $1.6133 into London's return. A
softer yen seen as the main driver of direction over the last few days, with the
euro the main beneficiary. Cable continues to struggle to take full advantage of
the situation and has thus allowed euro-sterling to extend its recent recovery
to stg0.8209 (Weds), touching stg0.8204 in early Asia but has since eased off to
stg0.8195 into Europe. Offers in the cross now seen placed between stg0.8210/20.
Support stg0.8185/80. A light domestic calendar with moves expected from yen
activity as well as US 'Fiscal Cliff' developments.
CABLE: Edging higher into early Europe, the rate moving above its overnight high
at $1.6140 to $1.6145. Some resistance expected to emerge into $1.6150, with the
76.4% retrace of the move down from $1.6171 to $1.6109 coming at $1.6156,
expected to provide some counter. However, a break of $1.6156 to expose that
$1.6171 level.
YEN: After dollar-yen had settled through Christmas Day between Y84.60/90 the
rate continued its recent march higher Wednesday, pushing up to a high in this
session to Y85.73 after barrier interest at Y85.50 was taken out. Rate closed in
NY at Y85.63 with early Asia taking advantage of the extended rise to book
profits, the early sales easing the rate to Y85.48. Euro-yen had seen highs
Wednesday of Y113.39, closing in NY at Y113.23. This rate tracked the early
dollar-yen dip, easing to Y113.03 before strong CTA demand emerged to punch this
rate higher. Stops triggered above Y113.40 then Y113.50 provided the momentum to
take rate on to Y113.65, the move taking dollar-yen to Y85.87 with an Asian
corporate a noted major buyer. One trader has noted that the short term market
is looking for fresh long re entry levels, having shorted/taken profit ahead of
Y85.50. Rate has settled between Y85.75/80 into Europe. Offers seen between
Y85.85-0.8600. Topside option structures continue to draw demand. Euro-yen
offers seen into Y114.00, bids Y113.10/00. New PM Abe want for a weaker yen,
along with US 'Fiscal Cliff' negotiations, remain the key drivers of FX
direction.
JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: JAPAN NIKKEI 225 INDEX ENDS UP 0.91% AT 10322.98
AUSSIE: Closed in NY Wednesday at $1.0374, touched an early high into Asian
trade at $1.0378 before turning lower, settling through the mid part of the
Asian day between $1.0360/70. Stronger selling emerged into the Asian afternoon
to press rate down to $1.0346 but buyers quickly emerged to take advantage of
the dip with rate recovering back to $1.0364 into the European open. Risk
positioning and a softer yen seen countering end of year paring back of long
Aussie-dollar positions.
AUSSIE: NAB's head of fx strategy Ray Attrill has done a scenario analysis on
the U.S. fiscal cliff where he sees a 30% chance the U.S. will fall off a cliff
on Dec 31, 50% chance of a temporary fix that avoids dealing with the cliff
until early next year, and only a 20% chance of a meaningful long-term deal
being struck by Monday. In the first two scenarios the aussie (and the also the
kiwi) stand to lose lose further ground (a lot under scenario one and a little
under scenario two) while in the unlikely event of scenario three, the past
week's entire sell off is likely to be reversed with the aussie back fairly soon
on a $1.05 handle, he says. Aussie now at $1.0354 vs $1.0378 early Sydney.
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: Italy is the only country left in the eurozone to conclude
its 2012 issuance programme. On Thursday, Italy's Dipartimento del Tesoro taps
its 2-year zero coupon Sep 2014 CTZ bond for between E2.5bln to E3.25bln
indicative size. On Friday, the Tesoro then taps its 5-year benchmark 3.50% Nov
2017 BTP issue for between E2.0bln and E3.0bln and also its 10-year benchmark
5.50% Nov 2022 BTP issue for between E2.0bln to E3.0bln. However, this supply is
countered by the heavy slew of redemption payments from Belgium for E7.77bln and
France for E5.49bln -- turning net cash flow negative to the tune of E4.0bln.
For full details of forthcoming issues, please see Eurozone bond auction
calendar & MNI Eurozone Net Cash Flow Matrix.
ITALY T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: The Italian Dipartimento Del Tesoro will issue
E8.5bln of a new 6-month Jun 28, 2013 BOT on Thursday. The old 6-month May 31,
2013 BOT yield has fallen by around 30bps since it hit a high of 1.15% in Dec
11, as the initial scare of early elections have abated, with Mario Monti
declaring his readiness to run for office again if asked to do so. With a BOT
redemption of E10.35bln on Dec 31 and this being the last 6-month BOT auction
this year, demand is likely to hold up well despite the reduced holiday period
trading. Currently there is no yield level in the the grey market for the new
BOT, but expectations are for it to trade with a premium of around 7bps to 8bps
vs the May 31, 2013 BOT. For comparison at the last 6-month BOT auction back on
Nov 28, the Tesoro sold E7.5bln at average yield of 0.919% with cover 1.65
times. Results due to be announced around 1005GMT.
EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- Dec 27 Italy T-bill redemption for E3.0bln
- Dec 27 Italy sells 6-month T-bill for E8.5bln
- Dec 27 Italy sells 2-year zero coupon Sep 2014 CTZ bond up to E3.25bn
- Dec 28 Italy sells 2017-/2022 BTP issues for up to E6.0bln
- Dec 31 Italy T-till redemption for E9.0bln
- Dec 31 Italy CTZ bond redemption for E11.833bln
- Jan 01 Ireland takes over 6-month Presidency of the Council of EU
- Jan 04 Eurozone flash HICP
- Jan 10 ECB meeting, Draghi press conference
- Jan 14 Italy T-bill redemption for E11.5bln
- Jan 16 ECB start of reserve maintenance period
- Jan 18 Spain T-bill redemption for E5.395bln
- Jan 18 Portugal T-bill redemption for E1.266bln
- Jan 20 German Lower Saxony election
- Jan 21 Eurogroup meeting
... zbieraj pips do pipa bo jak nie to z depo będzie lipa... G."niemiaszek"
