1. W wątku DT omawiamy bieżąca sytuacje na rynku i to co dotyczy danego dnia. Od dłuższych prognoz jest dział Prognozy, komentarze, analizy
2. Zamieszczamy tylko i wyłącznie swoje analizy. Nie kopiujemy z innych serwisów.
3. Komentarz do własnej analizy nie może mieć charakteru rekomendacji. (to nie jest dział z sygnałami)
4. Kłótnie, ataki na innych użytkowników są niedopuszczalne.
5. Nie zaśmiecamy wątku. (wypowiedzi w stylu: "dałem S", "ja kończę na dziś" itp. jak i chwalenie się swoimi statami)
Nagminne łamanie powyższych zasad będzie skutkować nałozeniem zakazu pisania do końca bieżącego tygodnia.
Recydywa będzie karana ostrzeżeniami.
Przypominam że ponadto obowiązuje Regulamin Forum
***************************
Przedstawione poglądy, oceny, opinie i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów
autorów i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji do nabycia lub zbycia albo
powstrzymania się od dokonania transakcji w odniesieniu do jakichkolwiek walut.
Poglądy te jak i inne treści nie stanowią "rekomendacji" lub "doradztwa"
w rozumieniu ustawy z dnia 29 lipca 2005 o obrocie instrumentami finansowymi.
Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte lub zaniechane
na podstawie poniższych analiz ponosi inwestor.
Polski WIG20 świetnie koreluje się z Chińskim indexem HangSeng - zapewne dlatego iż główną Polską spółką jest KGHM, a ten wydobywa miedź która wędruje do Chin. Surowiec odwzorowuje koniunkturę w Chinach....
Nie masz wymaganych uprawnień, aby zobaczyć pliki załączone do tego posta.
Przedstawione, poglądy, oceny i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów autora i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji. Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte i z wykorzystaniem wniosków w nich zawartych, ponosi inwestor. subsilver2趋势线
W moim zasięgu zainteresowań dzisiaj USDPLN - jakieś prognozy/projekcje?
Ja czaje się na S, licze na korektę na fali prawdopodobnie pozytywnych ustaleń ze szczytu unijnego, licząc, że wreszcie konkretnie ten tort podzielą
EUROPE: The European calendar gets underway at 0700GMT, when ECB'S Ewald
Nowotny delivers a speech at the International Arab Banking Summit, in Vienna.
AT the same time, German Chancellor Angela Merkel statement on the upcoming EU
summit, results of G8 summit, in Berlin. Early data also due at 0700GMT, sees
the release of Spanish May retail sales and the June flash HICP numbers. At
0755GMT, the German June unemployment data is due, to be followed at 0800GMT by
the release of the German May VDMA machine orders data. ECB Governing Council
member Jens Weidmann is set to deliver a speech to the Federation of European
Securities Exchanges, in Berlin at 0815GMT. At 0900GMT, German Labour Minister
Ursula von der Leyen delivers a press conference in Berlin following the earlier
jobs data. At 0900GMT, the EMU Jun business climate indicator is set for
publication, along with the June consumer confidence numbers. ECB Governing
Council member Christian Noyer will deliver a press conference in Paris, also at
0900GMT. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble delivers a speech to the
Federation of European Securities Exchanges at 0930GMT.
EUROPE: EU finance ministers have agreed new rules for dealing with failing
banks in order to protect tax payers from the costs of bailouts.
IRELAND: The FT says the Irish central bank is about to make repossession easier
for Ireland's banks, cutting the time before a bank can take legal action to
repossess from 12 months to three months.
UK: UK data set for release at 0830GMT includes the Q1 Current Account numbers
and the final estimate of the Q1 GDP numbers. There is no reason to expect GDP
revision to the 0.3% figure published in previous estimates. The latest monthly
data on construction output and industrial production are in line with the
numbers pencilled in by National Statistics in the first two estimates of Q1
GDP.
UK PRESS: Following the Chancellor's CSR Weds, the Telegraph says an additional
stg 25 bn of spending cuts or tax hikes will be likely as economists warn as the
Treasury failed to find any new savings in the 2015 spending round.
UK PRESS: Banks could be hit by the surge in government bond yields, as the
turbulence spills over into the corporate bond market and impacts on funding
costs, the FT says. The paper notes spreads between average EU bank borrowing
cost over Bunds as US banks costs over USTs both spiked in June, although both
have backed off their worst levels.
UK PRESS: UK inward FDI saw a 22% rise in 2012, UN data shows, reaching a total
of $62 billion, the FT reports. The rise was against an 18% fall globally, the
report shows.
UK PRESS: UK insurer Direct Line says it could cut up to 2,000 jobs as part of a
plan to double cost savings, the Telegraph reports.
US PRESS: US consumer-facing companies say the recent spike in market interest
rates threaten sales of big ticket items, including homes cars and white goods,
the WSJ reports.
EURO SUMMARY: Euro-dollar closed in NY Wednesday $1.3016 after rate had
recovered off pressured lows of $1.2985 through to the close. Euro-dollar had
been under pressure through the earlier European morning, the rate easing to
$1.3014 before it jumped back to $1.3056 on reaction to the sharp downside
revision in US Q1 GDP. However, analysts noted that this revision is backward
looking and was not seen affecting the gradual improvement in US employment
which allowed for the continued sell off in early US afternoon. Rate closed
below its 55-, 100- and 200-dma lines Wednesday, which if holds below today to
confirm bearish trend in place. Rate eased to $1.3005 in early Asia before fresh
demand emerged to extend recovery to $1.3035 aided as EU FinMins reached a deal
on bank bail-ins. Rate settled between $1.3025/35 ahead of the European open.
Asian traders reported demand between $1.3005/00, then $1.2985/80 with stops
below. Stronger European corporate demand seen at $1.2960/50. Resistance
$1.3035/40, more at $1.3060/65 with stops $1.3065-70. German employment data at
0755GMT, EZ M3 at 0800GMT and EZ confidence indicators at 0900GMT the morning's
interest ahead of US weekly jobless claims. End month/half year looms.
STERLING SUMMARY: Cable closed in NY Wednesday at $1.5319 after rate had edged
off session lows of $1.5297. Rate dipped to $1.5310 in early Asian trade before
fresh demand emerged which allowed rate to track euro-dollar's recovery
(euro-sterling was contained overnight between stg0.8492/0.8500), the rate
pushing up to an overnight high of $1.5346 ($1.5347 50% $1.5397-1.5297 post US
GDP react pullback) before momentum stalled and it eased off to $1.5333. UK
final Q1 GDP (current 0.3%)reading will provide the main domestic focus in
morning trade, with US weekly jobless claims at 1230GMT, along with PCE and
personal income data providing early afternoon interest. Cable offers remain in
place into $1.5350, a break to open a move toward $1.5370/80 ahead of
$1.5395/00. Support $1.5310/1.5295 with stops remaining in place on a break of
$1.5290. Further demand though seen close behind at $1.5280/70. Euro-sterling
saw decent end month linked demand Wednesday, the usual European sovereign
mentioned, though rate held below stg0.8500. However, rate retains a firm tone
ahead into Europe. MS end month model sees demand emerging for cable at Friday's
fixings, though RBC suggesting this week's S&P recovery could provide a counter.
YEN SUMMARY: Dollar-yen closed in NY Wednesday at Y97.80 after recovering off a
session low of Y97.24. Rate had been driven lower as markets reacted to the
sharp downside revision in Q1 US GDP data at its final reading, but with data
seen backward looking (Q2 components already looking better) and little effect
in the revision to employment, allowed for a dollar recovery during the
afternoon, with part of this demand seen linked to end month interest. Rate
extended highs to Y97.87 in opening Asian dealing, but reports of strong sell
interest placed at Y97.90 managed to thwart any further upside progress. Rate
eased back to Y97.57 before it settled back between Y97.70/85 through the Asian
afternoon. Toshin linked demand has been a mentioned factor in yen pair
buoyancy, along with end month interest. Dollar-yen offers remain into Y97.90
with reports of CTA stops placed on a break above. Support Y97.25/20 with stops
below.
JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japan's benchmark stocks are higher Thursday. The Nikkei 225
was higher by 379.54 points, or 2.96%, at 13213.55. Into the close, the
broader-based TOPIX was higher by 27.02 points at 1096.3. Market breadth
indicators saw 199 issues higher, 24 lower and 2 unchanged. Preliminary volume
stood at 1.773 bn shares.
EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: Eurozone sovereign T-bill issuance has been completed
for this week, with E20.912bln allocated by Germany, France, Spain, and Italy,
compared to E23.567bln allotted last week. To recap issuance so far this week,
on Monday, Germany sold E2.37bln 12-month Bubill at average yield 0.1229%. In
the afternoon France sold E4.192bln 3-month BTF at average yield 0.065%,
E1.51bln 6-month BTF at average yield 0.095% and E1.765bln 12-month BTF at
average yield 0.244%. On Tuesday Spain sold E934mln 3-month Letra at average
yield 0.869% and sold E2.141bln 9-month Letra at average yield 1.441%. On
Wednesday Italy sold E8.0bln 6-month BOT at average yield 1.052%. T-bill
issuance is expected fall significantly next week with plans from Netherlands,
France, and Belgium and is expected to total E12.5bln.
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: Italy comes to the Eurozone sovereign bond issuance market on
Thursday with plans to tap benchmark 5-year 3.50% June 2018 BTP and benchmark
10-year 4.50% May 2023 BTP for between E2.0bln-E2.5bln size each. Overall,
sovereign bond issuance in the eurozone this week is estimated to come in around
E17.21bln vs E19.64bln sold last week. So far, Belgium tapped its 1.25% June
2018 OLO69, 3.00% Sep 2019, OLO67, 2.25% June 2023 OLO68 and 4.50% Mar 2026
OLO64 issues for combined size of E2.708bln. On Tuesday Netherlands sold E6.1bln
in new 5-year 1.25% Jan 2019. Italy sold E3.5bln zero coupon June 2015 CTZ and
sold 5-year 1.70% Sep 2015 BTPei, 15-year 3.10% Sep 2026 BTPei for a combined
size of E1.0bln. In terms of reinvestment flows, there are no redemption
payments and coupon payments from Belgium E0.4bln, Italy E0.1bln and Austria
E0.1bln -- to leave net cash flow negative to the tune of E16.6bln vs -E18.4bln
last week. For full details of forthcoming issues, please see Eurozone bond
auction calendar & MNI Eurozone Net Cash Flow Matrix.
ITALY AUCTION PREVIEW: Italy's Dipartimento Del Tesoro plans to tap its 5-year
benchmark 3.50% June 2018 BTP and tap its 10-year benchmark 4.50% May 2023 BTP
for between E2.0bln-E2.5bln size each Thursday. BTP yields have pared back some
of recent moves higher in wake of concerns of Fed tapering, as ECB Draghi
reiterates that the central bank stands ready to act and said the OMT provides a
"very effective" backstop against speculation. Despite this the auction will
still be seen as a test as the market remains illiquid. The market is currently
pricing a mid-yield of 3.64% for the 5-year 3.50% June 2018 BTP having risen
from lows of below 3.00 at the beginning of June, but down from 3.88% recent
high. For comparison, at the last auction on May 30, E2.75bln was allotted at
average yield of 3.01% and covered 1.4 times. As for the benchmark 4.50% May
2023 BTP, mid-yield is seen at 4.68%, having increased from low of 4.07% at the
start of June, but down from 4.92% high. For comparison at the last auction also
on May 30, E3.0bln was sold at an average of yield 4.14% and covered 1.38 times. Auction results are due to be announced around 0910GMT.
EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- Jun 27/28 European Council Summit
- Jun 27 Italy BTP bond auction
- Jun 27 Germany June unemployment data
- Jun 27 EMU Jun business climate indicator/consumer confidence
- Jun 28 ECB announces 3-year LTRO repayment for following week
- Jun 28 Finland Treasury publishes quarterly review
- Jun 28 Italy T-bill redemption for E8.875bln
- Jun 29 Cyprus bond redemption for E1.889bln
- Jul 01 Lithuania takes over EU presidency
- Jul 01 Croatia joins the EU
- Jul 03 EU labour ministers meet to discuss youth unemployment
- Jul 04 ECB Governing Council meeting, Draghi press conference in Frankfurt
- Jul 04 Spain bond auctions - Jul 04 Cyprus bond redemption for E714.6mln
- Jul 08 Eurogroup meeting
- Jul 09 EconFin meeting
US: Timeline of some upcoming key events in the US:
- Jun 27 Jobless Claims for Jun 22, est 345k at 0830ET
- Jun 27 May Pers Income, ests +0.2% PI, +0.3% PCE, +0.1% core PCE px at 0830ET
- Jun 27 Freddie Mac to announce Reference Note issuance
- Jun 27 NY Fed Pres Dudley on the job market for college grads in NY at 1000ET
- Jun 27 Senate Banking Ctee considers Watt nom for Dir of FHFA at 1000ET
- Jun 27 May NAR Pending Home Sales, est +1% at 1000ET
- Jun 27 Fed Gov. Powell at Bipartisan Policy Center in Washington at 1030ET
- Jun 27 Tsy Cpn Purch 06/30/2017 - 02/28/2018 $4.25B-$5.25 billion
- Jun 27 UST announces 3/6m bills at 1100ET
- Jun 27 Fed Lockhart (non-voter) at Kiwanis Club in Georgia at 1230ET
- Jun 27 UST auctions $29Bn 7y nts at 1300ET
- Jun 28 Fed Gov Stein on monpol to Council on Foreign Relations in NY at 0800ET
- Jun 28 Fed Lacker (non-voter) in W. VA at 0915ET
- Jun 28 Jun MNI Chicago Report, est 55 at 0945ET
- Jun 28 June UMichigan Consumer Sentiment (f), est 83 at 0955ET
... zbieraj pips do pipa bo jak nie to z depo będzie lipa... G."niemiaszek"
lukweb pisze:W moim zasięgu zainteresowań dzisiaj USDPLN - jakieś prognozy/projekcje?
Ja czaje się na S, licze na korektę na fali prawdopodobnie pozytywnych ustaleń ze szczytu unijnego, licząc, że wreszcie konkretnie ten tort podzielą
ja już wczoraj się czaiłem z S przy 3.34 na 0,3lot, ale jakoś odeszła mi ochota jak zobaczyłem prognozy kolegów z forum.
Nie masz wymaganych uprawnień, aby zobaczyć pliki załączone do tego posta.
